This may or may not have been one of the top six swing plays (it was) via Mgoblue.com
1. The Six Factors
| Exp Score | Early Conv | Bonus Yds | Avg 3rd Dist | Adj 3rd Conv | Red Zone | |
| Offense | 29.8 | 57% | 95 | 7.0 | -22% | 5.7 |
| Defense | 35.1 | 45% | 52 | 11.7 | +4% | 7.0 |
Thanks to going –1 in the short (or no) field turnover department, Michigan had another game on the wrong side of the field position numbers. On a down by down basis, Michigan really dominated. A large spread on early conversions, a solid lead on bonus yards although 95 isn’t an overwhelming number for the offense. The defense bounced back against the big plays after an uncharacteristic performance against Akron. Michigan also forced UConn into some awful third downs, but the Michigan offense was not good on third downs. Michigan’s game winning field goal was the lone red zone deficiency for either team.
So aside from the turnovers, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the game? The turnovers made the game awful and the offense put forward its least dynamic showing of the season, but the defense looks to be back on track after a bad second half at Akron. As has been noted everywhere, if Devin Gardner can his head back on straight, this could still be an excellent season. The defense should limit the floor and a continuation of this level of turnovers would be unprecedented. The ceiling looks less certain but its definitely not as bad as the last two weeks have felt.
Legend
Exp Score: A team’s expected points based on where a team started its drives
Early Conversion: The percentage of first downs' that are converted prior to a third down play
Bonus Yards: All yards gained after the first down marker
Average 3rd Down Distance: Average yards to go on third down
Adjusted 3rd Down Conversion: Rate of conversion for a team on third down, adjusted for the standard conversion rate based on yards to go, 0% is average
Red Zone: Points per red zone trip (TD’s counted as 7 regardless of PAT)
All categories except field position are based solely on plays in competitive situations (all first half plays and any second half plays where the drive begins or ends within two scores).
2. Individual Performances
Devin Gardner: +5.3 +13%
Fitzgerald Toussaint: +4.1, +16%
Lyle McCombs: +0.1, +1%
Chandler Whitmer: –0.7, –34%
Despite all the horrible, awful, no good plays from Gardner he still manages to put up enough good plays to more than offset them. It will be another week or two before I kick in the opponent adjustments, but this will almost certainly be his worst rated game to date.
In terms of overall win contribution, the offense contributed about 60% of the win and defense about 40%. This is actually a pretty high number for the defense.
3. Game Chart & Swing Plays
+11.6% Toussaint scores form 12 yards out to tie it up at 21
-12.2% The punts hits off of D’Mario Jones’ leg and is recovered by UConn
-13.4% Gardner stuffed on 4th down with Michigan trailing by 7
+15.0% Foxx loses 3 on the screen to set up 3rd and 13 on Uconn’s final drive
-15.6% Gardner fumbles on the sneak (-8.4%) and UConn returns it for a TD (-7.2%)
+19.6% Whitmer picked by Morgan (+11.4%) and returned for 29 yards (+8.2%)
So that’s two bad offensive plays, one good offensive play, a bad special teams play and two good defensive plays. Echoes the feeling from the game of the offense being a disaster in general. But after Morgan picked off Whitmer and got a great return, things turned in Michigan’s favor quickly.
The third quarter was just a mess but other than the turnover and some initial yards at the beginning of UConn’s final drive the fourth quarter saw almost every play move the odds in Michigan’s favor.
4. Ron Zook Dumb Punt of the Week
I had a request on twitter to award this to Dantonio for putting in an ice cold Andrew Maxwell for the final drive against Notre Dame. While it probably wouldn’t have mattered either way, it was probably over thinking things a bit. The good news for Michigan State is at least it didn’t add any confusion to a stable quarterback depth chart.
Clemson and NC State kicked the week off on Thursday night with three punts from the opponent’s half of the field and 3 or fewer yards to go.
But I am going to go ahead and give it to Michigan State anyway. Between the Maxwell move and two punts while trailing in the final minutes of the Notre Dame game, the worst being a 4th and 5 from the 45.
Mark Dantonio is your Week 4 Dumb Punter of the Week
Bonus Futile Field Goal of the Week. Austin Peay just wanted to avoid the shut out against the OHIO Bobcats but kicker Walter Spears would have none of it. Spears missed chip shot field goals of 32 and 26 yards and had a 39 yarder blocked on consecutive possessions in the second half as the Governors fell 31-0.
5. Prediction State of the Stats
| Exp Score | Early Conv | Bonus Yds | Avg 3rd Dist | Adj 3rd Conv | Red Zone | |
| Offense | 27.6 (48) | 52.9% (28) | 156 (40) | 7.3 (96) | -1% (71) | 5.8 (30) |
| Defense | 31.1 (106) | 44.6 (27) | 102 (27) | 7.2 (25) | +9% (97) | 3.6 (23) |
Devin Gardner: +14 (unadjusted), 22nd in the country/4th in B1G
Fitzgerald Toussaint: +1.4 (unadjusted), 76/10
Michigan Offense: 39th/8
Michigan Defense: 38th/5
The numbers are still pretty loose at this point, most schedules are soft and opponent adjustments haven’t kicked in yet. If Gardner pulls out of his slump, there is plenty of opportunity for him to contend with the top QBs in the country. Currently he trails Taylor Martinez and Nate Sudfeld! and Nathan Scheelhaase! I am as surprised as you. Toussaint is still a long way from the Melvin Gordon’s of the world but is at least in the middle of the pack as opposed to last year.
Although Michigan’s offense is 8th in the conference, the top 8 are pretty packed. With Penn St, Iowa and Purdue in a second tier and then Michigan State way back.
On the six factors the defense has been really solid across all metrics but third downs. The offense has been more sporadic. Good as early conversions and red zone, decent at big plays and below average on third down distance and third downs. The turnovers have created a field position gap of half a TD per game.
6. Bye Week Bonus
Completely unrelated to anything else I do here, but I have been working on the side to design Michigan Stadium out LEGOs. I recently finished the design and have ordered the parts. Hoping to have this one a kind set built and displayed in the next couples. I will try and post some pictures to twitter when it’s done. The final structure will be about 2.5 feet square and nearly a foot tall. For now, here is the final design.
Note: Several people have expressed interest in doing this, email me at themathletebt at gmail if you are one of them