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Since some of us need to be on the road on Friday, we’re going to do the MGoRadio episode at 5-7pm this Thursday at The Jolly Pumpkinon Main Street. Come down and join us upstairs; Nick will be there to buy the first round!
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Nick’s question: So we’re butt?
Seth: Is that your question?
Nick: Phrase it how you want. In the pre-season you said we wouldn’t be butt. Are we butt?
Seth: You mean now that it’s midseason how have our expectations shifted relative to what they were this summer?
Nick: Sure. Actually can we break it up into four questions?
- What position group has exceeded preseason expectations most?
- What position group has been most disappointing?
- What are you hoping to see change or improve over the second half of the season?
- How has your season outlook changed?
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1. What position group has exceeded preseason expectations most?
Ace: Going with the cornerbacks. Mike Zordich’s preseason presser certainly didn’t assuage fears that the Long-Hill duo needed another year in the incubator, nor did the continued presence of Brandon Watson, a player we thought was relatively limited, alongside those two. Those fears turned out to be unfounded. Hill has lived up to the hype as the second coming of Jourdan Lewis with fewer busted plays than I thought he’d have given his high school profile; Long has been nearly as good; Watson turned into “Swatson” during the Florida game and has maintained a level of play worthy of cutting into the other two’s snaps.
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| Zordich set the bar about where that Hoosier’s second foot was. [Bryan Fuller] |
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Seth: Fine, Ace, take the most obvious answer. That lets me gush about the linebackers. McCray, the only returning starter, has been McCray for better and worse, and the other LB spot had to replace an instant NFL starter in Gedeon. They've gotten that and more: Ol' Doomsquirrel, Ol' Pogstackles, Ol' Devin Bush was such a revelation he's already got two prospectin' names, and Furbush made a lot of that happen.
Ace: We’re officially abusing the prospectin’ names.
(Also, given the way QBs react to him, I submit Ol’ Footsteps as Bush’s prospectin’ name. I’m a giant hypocrite, yes.)
David: Ol' Giant Hypocrite?
Ace: Welp. Now I’ve got two prospectin’ names.
Seth: If you claim a third I'm calling Devin Bush Ol' Four Prospectin' Names.
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[Hit THE JUMP for some really bad HTTV takes]
David: So, um, kicker. Quinn Nordin has been absolutely righteous. He's 14/16 and almost lost a ball deep in the bowels of Indiana's Memorial Stadium. One miss was from 51 that should have been from 46, except for penalty as the team was lining up (it would have been good from 46, FYI). He pushed the other, a couple of drives later. Chris Partridge is quoted as saying that 55 is inside his comfort zone. Yes, I believe that to be true. After this weekend, there will be three weeks that Michigan should be able to try to get him a shot at 60+. I say: let's do it! Also, he has a Wild Thing haircut and is 2 more 50+'s in a game away from Ace having to match that same haircut.
And then there’s James “Ol’ Doug” Foug. he probably has the highest hang time ever and gets TBs whenever he wants. Dropping them at the 2 and tackling at the 15 is also a skill that the entire kickoff coverage team seems to have down pat.
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Brian: Cornerback is correct. Michigan just put their #2 and #3 corners on Simmie Cobbs for most of a game and that went great. Also not bad: Lavert Hill is tracking towards Jourdan Lewis in a downright spooky way. All three can play and they've got an outright star. And this was the part of the defense we were most worried about after being told to be worried about them, flat out.
But in an effort to spread the answers out let's put in a shout for the tight ends. Sean McKeon and Zach Gentry have been the team's most consistent receivers; both guys have been adequate blockers. Add in Ty Wheatley flashing some mauling ability and this unit is deep and good; Nick Eubanks and Ian Bunting have struggled to see the field but both guys have chipped in some plays here and there, most notably Eubanks catching a bomb deep into the Florida game. McKeon and Gentry are both going to be around for another couple years; Michigan's tight end situation looks excellent not just now but down the road.
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Adam, Yeah, the corners. This has been covered in exacting detail, but the alarms were sounded, and it seemed that they were sounded for good reason considering some of the information that emerged from the sub. Then Brandon Watson evolved into final-form Brandon Watson, David Long got healthy and got the reps he needed, and Lavert Hill decided to literally become Jourdan Lewis. Always become Jourdan Lewis when given the option, kids.
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2. What position group has been most disappointing?
Ace:Quarterback. We knew the offensive line and wide receivers could have problems given their relative inexperience. Wilton Speight struggling as much as he did was a different story, and now I think we’re all pining for Speight. Develop swiftly, Harbaugh recruits.
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Seth:Backup quarterback. Throw all that O'Korn hype and post Spring Game Peters excitement in the garbage: if Peters wasn't at least 50/50 to do worse than 3 YPA against Indiana the Luck track is out of the question.
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David: Everyone will beat the QBs to death, so let's share the blame! We can talk about Wide Receivers. Despite being true freshmen, this class was ridiculously hyped. Maybe Michigan's best ever? Martin and Collins are almost certainly red-shirting (at this point, I really hope they are). Black looked pretty good, but got three games in and will now MED-shirt. DPJ started slowly and is starting to come along. He's definitely had his share of mis-routes and holding calls.
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| The Harbaugh Certainty Principle has failed us this year. [Fuller] |
That's not too much of a surprise, though. Freshman wideouts generally suck.
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Brian: It's something related to the passing game. Quarterback is probably still edging out WR. Wilton Speight had a solid-at-worst sophomore year, but by the time he went out against Purdue he was averaging a full yard per attempt worse than he was a year ago. That's not the direction that's supposed to go, and only part of that could be put on his WRs and OL. Then John O'Korn came in, momentarily redeemed the hype... and then repaid all tickets 200%. This is the worst QB play Jim Harbaugh has had since his first year at Stanford. That is rough.
I will also hear all your WR complaints. Michigan thought they'd hit on all three guys in last year's class; now one is gone, a second keeps getting targeted on fades he's nowhere near getting hand on, let alone, catching, and the third guy is a fountain of drops, bad penalties, and bad routes. Not great, Bob.
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Adam: The answer is obviously quarterback, but the receivers aren't far behind. Preseason hype for the position group was as high as I can recall it ever being, and now we're halfway through the season and repeatedly throwing fades to a guy who's the same height as me. Disappointment in the WRs is born of circumstance, not poor performance (with one obvious exception); Black's injury looms far larger than I thought it would. The maxim about freshmen receivers being freshmen receivers is holding true, and though I think DPJ has done well and will continue to develop, there isn't much of a supporting cast to cover for the other two members of the class not being ready for the field, understandable though it may be.
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3. What are you hoping to see change or improve over the second half of the season?
Ace: I’d like to see Brandon Peters get a shot, first and foremost. We’ve covered this ad nauseam over the last couple days but so long as you aren’t Gardnering the kid—and the pass protection wasn’t awful against Indiana—there’s little reason to play O’Korn over him now that the offense has become entirely one-dimensional. Michigan is going to be a quarterback and an offensive tackle or two away from being elite next year; they can get started on developing the former now that it’s abundantly clear the Big Ten title is all but out of reach with O’Korn at the helm.
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Seth: THROW IT TO YOUR BEST RECEIVER GRANT PERRY THE OPEN GUY THAT MEANS THE GUY WHO ISN'T SURROUNDED BY PLAYERS IN THE OTHER TEAM'S COLORS HE'S WEARING 88 LIKE JAKE BUTT AND HE'S RIGHT IN FRONT OF YOU NO THAT WAS MCDOOM ON A FADE NOT GRANT PERRY THROW IT TO GOTDAMN GRANT PERRY.
Or, you know, Gentry.
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| HE LOOKS LIKE THIS SEE? HE’S GOT WINGS ON HIS HELMET LIKE YOU AND THERE AREN’T GUYS WHO DON’T HAVE WINGS ON THEIR HELMETS IN HIS VICINITY YOU SHOULD THROW IT TO THIS GUY. [Eric Upchurch] |
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David: I'll let everyone else talk about Peters b/c...yeah, that. I'd really like to see DPJ continue to improve, and I think he will. Harbaugh says he is not a mistake-repeater and his athleticism is still off the charts. Learn some routes, come by to your QB, toast some folks. I'd also like to see the continued growth of the Guards. The power game has looked better and Onwenu has won a couple of OL of the week awards. This bodes well. Anything positive out of the right tackle spot would be welcome, too. Lastly, I'll be looking for some plays from guys like Aubrey Solomon and Carlo Kemp. Getting some depth at star-laced-but-shallow positions would be absolutely lovely.
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Brian: I'd like Michigan to consolidate their gains on the ground. The last two games have seen Michigan's OL run block very well against a couple of average-to-good defenses. If they're going to have any sort of positive offensive identity this year it will be as a 22 personnel manball outfit that can grind you for five yards at a time unless you overcommit. Adding JBB to the mix gives Michigan a legitimately mauling right side; add more Wheatley to the mix once his cast is off for good and you can really move some guys. They aren't far off from being a legitimately good rushing offense, and that'll give them a shot at hitting passes that are relatively easy for their terrible passing game.
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Adam: I'd like to see them find a way to get the ball to playmakers in space with the short passing game. This seems like the kind of team that could Mesh their way to success if the pass protection continues to develop and Michigan can get away from max protecting so dang much. They have the personnel to do so: Evans and Isaac can both catch the ball out of the backfield, and Perry and Peoples-Jones and even the tight ends crossing should keep a defense honest. The run game coming along should can only help Michigan dink, dunk, and run-after-catch their way to success.
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4. How has your season outlook changed?
Ace: The arrow has definitely gone down. I predicted 10-2 before the season and, if you read HTTV, you know I wasn’t expecting a loss to Michigan State at all. Unfortunately, 8-4 is more likely than 10-2 or perhaps even 9-3 at this point; thankfully, the gooey soft middle of the remaining schedule puts the floor at 7-5, and I’d be very surprised if the defense didn’t drag this team farther than that.
While that won’t generate much excitement, I’ll add an optimistic prediction: after bowl practices and the game itself, a win in some mid-tier Florida bowl against an SEC squad playing out the string, we’re all very much looking forward to the Peters Era, even if it gets off to a rocky start during the regular season.
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Seth: Hey, let's pull my HTTV preview, that'll be fun!
9-3. Beat MSU, retain the Jug, lose to Ohio State. It’s not hard to find two losses between Florida-Penn State-Wisconsin, and an Air Force, Minnesota, Maryland or Indiana can always sneak up on a non-elite team. It’ll be a comedown, but enough to crush Kirby Smart in an upper Floridian bowl game and come back really excited for next year.
bleeeeoooooooooooooooooooop....[thunk].
The MSU loss stings—like you can't say "Go Blue" to another dad at Buddy’s who's wearing a Michigan shirt and carrying a baby the same age as your baby without a Spartan popping up "Go Green!" and giving you crap about going to OT with Indiana (but no he didn’t watch the Michigan State game). It's like winning a drenched, five-turnover luckfest suddenly gave them all Michigan degrees. Even with all of the bounces going to the greenies, the Michigan at the lowest end of our expectations would only have made the final score dignified. It also would have put the Indiana, Purdue, Cincinnati and Air Force games away much sooner.
Now I’m down to 8-4 at best with an unlucky moment dragging it to 7-5. Ohio State fans remain too bored to do this anymore. Penn State fans are justifiably cocky on Twitter. Wisconsin is the annual MGoBlog road trip so figure that's doomed too. If quarterback wasn't a complete disaster zone I'd have hope that the defense could salvage one of those but noooope.
FWIW here are the rest of the HTTV season predictions:
Craig Ross: 9-3.The over/under in Vegas is right on the nose. We beat OSU at last, and lose to Florida, Wisconsin and Penn State. Always next year and 2018 will be primo. I promise. Does the Weed Eater Bowl still exist? No? Tangerine Bowl then against some SEC team. Georgia. TAM. We win in the bowl game. 10-3, again.
Adam Schnepp: 9-3 with losses to Florida, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Michigan ends up making another contractually-obligated trip to Walt Disney World and plays in the CompUSA Capital One BWW Citrus Bowl.
Ace Anbender: 10-2 with narrow losses to Penn State and Ohio State, which is enough to get into the Fiesta or Peach or Rose or whatever big-time bowl that’s not in the playoff rotation will take a non-champion Big Ten team.
Brian Cook: 10-2. Florida’s QB/OL situation should be bad enough that Michigan’s DL can overwhelm them and keep the nonconference record clean, but there will be enough blips that Michigan drops an Iowa-esque game or two. Mean-ass DLs will be the biggest danger, so PSU, OSU, Wisconsin are the biggest threats. OSU is the most likely loss, as always.
Ace:
“Harbaugh has never been afraid to make a change at quarterback, even when that means going with the less-established player, and the longer this remains a competition, the more I believe it favors Peters. He’s flat-out the more talented quarterback, and if Speight can’t provide consistency—which he sure didn’t in the spring game—then it’s going to be difficult to justify keeping Peters on the bench. I acknowledge it’s exceedingly rare for a quarterback who put up the type of numbers Speight did last year to lose his job. It’s also exceedingly rare to have a first-round talent as the backup, and I really believe Peters has that level of potential.”
[waves tiny, tear-soaked flag]
BiSB: /glances towards Draftageddon results, thinks better of it
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David: The ceiling is probably 10-2. 9-3 is somewhat possible, but I would say that 8-4 has the highest probability. Bill Connelly has Michigan at 38% to go 8-4 (31% for 9-3). Realistically, this was always the 'paper over' year. Way too many unknowns, so many very young guys getting a ton of snaps, 3-4 extremely difficult games against older teams...you had to think one or more of these things would come up and bite Michigan. In 2018, though, they'll return at least 15-16 starters, Harbaugh's recruits will be upperclassmen, the defense will be deeper...there are sunny skies ahead.
Unless, of course, Michigan shocks Penn State next weekend. Then, who knows? And as we saw in college football this past weekend: absolutely anything can happen.
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Brian: The great, unexpected QB void takes Michigan down a game or two from my preseason 10-2 assertion. I was banking on Speight being at least what he was a year ago; instead he regressed and now he's out and it's a long way down unless Michigan can find a semblance of an air attack.
That said, they're 5-1 and they've got Rutgers, Maryland, and Minnesota on the docket. All of those teams will perish against the Michigan D; S&P+ has M 14 point favorites or better in each. The season is really about stealing one or two from the PSU/UW/OSU trio, and with this defense and a little luck they can definitely do that. Get one and play well in a bowl game and you're 10-3 again and returning the whole damn team and feeling pretty good about yourself. Get zero and you're feeling less great, but at some point Harbaugh is going to have a QB.
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Adam: I'm sticking with my HTTV prediction of 9-3 with a contractually-obligated trip to Disney World as part of a central Floridian bowl game, but with a set of losses not soaked in braggadocio; running the table against rivals is, uh, not exactly happening this season. The defense is so good, though, that Michigan's going to be in every game, and if they continue to develop the run game there's a chance that whichever QB is out there will have a shot at hitting a few chunk passing plays once the defense overcommits. This should get them past everyone except Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. I think they lose a close one to Penn State, beat Wisconsin, then come crashing back to earth the next week.