For 2017, instead of previewing conferences division-by-division, I decided to preview the 64 Power Five teams individually, so I ranked them and counted down from the bottom.

I created a ranking system based heavily off of Bill Connelly’s S&P+ rankings: half of the ranking comes from the S&P rankings from the past five seasons among Power Five teams (1/3 of that number is 2016’s ranking; 1/3 is the average from 2014-2016, 1/3 is the average from 2012-2016); half comes from two component parts of his 2017 S&P+ projections, weighed evenly – recruiting impact and returning production – and ranked 1 through 64. There is no subjectivity involved in these rankings and they skew towards emphasizing where the teams were according the 2016 S&P+. I think it serves as a decent way to sequence these previews.

Previously: #64 Purdue, #63 Rutgers, #62 Kansas, #61 Illinois, #60 Boston College, #59 Virginia, #58 Vanderbilt, #57 Syracuse. #56 Maryland, #55 Arizona, #54 Wake Forest, #53 Duke, #52 Iowa State, #51 Texas Tech, #50 Missouri, #49 Oregon State. #48 Arizona State, #47 Cal, #46 Indiana, #45 Kentucky, #44 West Virginia, #43 South Carolina, #42 Washington State, #41 Northwestern. #40 Minnesota, #39 Iowa, #38 Colorado, #37 Kansas State, #36 Utah, #35 Georgia Tech, #34 Nebraska, #33 Michigan State. #32 North Carolina, #31 NC State, #30 UCLA, #29 Mississippi State, #28 Oregon, #27 Arkansas, #26 Pittsburgh, #25 Baylor. #24 Oklahoma State, #23 Virginia Tech, #22 Georgia, #21 TCU, #20 Texas, #19 Tennessee. #18 Ole Miss, #17 Texas A&M, #16 Miami, #15 Wisconsin, #14 Louisville, #13 Washington. #12 Penn State, #11 Florida, #10 Stanford, #9 Auburn.

(I didn’t include Notre Dame)

[hit the JUMP for the previews]

[Bryan Fuller]

8. MICHIGAN

#2 Big Ten East, #2 Big Ten

10-3 (7-2) in 2016

Since this team is covered in such exacting detail by Brian and the other writers here, it wouldn’t make much sense for me to give a thousand-word synopsis like I did for these other teams. You already know all that stuff. However, I don’t write about UM football that often and would like to offer up some takes on the 2017 season.

I can’t help but feeling like this Michigan team strikes a strong resemblance to Ohio State’s 2016 team: both are/were one year removed from phenomenal teams that ultimately had disappointing seasons, both have/had precious little experience across the board (expect at QB), and both are/were looking forward to better years in the new future. That OSU team was one year ahead of schedule, and even though the Buckeyes were slightly older and more highly-touted on average than this Michigan team is, it’s a similar dynamic. Harbaugh has recruited well enough and has earned enough faith in his coaching abilities to simply assume that Michigan will contend for the division title even though the mostly barren late Hoke classes are upperclassmen and a ton of sophomores will be relied upon.

Since he took over at Michigan, Harbaugh’s had some amazing defenses and some average offenses. The Wolverines took a flamethrower to many of the weaker teams on its schedule last season, but they averaged 16.7 points per game in regulation over the last three games of the regular season; Wilton Speight’s injury surely played a role in that, but the OL was overwhelmed by the better DLs on the schedule (Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Florida State) and Michigan had less than 100 yards on the ground against each of those teams. Aside from Speight and Khalid Hill, UM will need to find new starters at each of the offensive skill positions, but they should be fine with the Evans-Isaac-Higdon trio at RB and an absurdly good WR class coming in. And, for what it’s worth, I think Speight will be considerably better this season, especially if he has a solid rapport with at least one or two targets in the passing game.

The line still worries me greatly, and is the biggest reason for concern on the team in my opinion. Mason Cole is versatile and should be an all-conference type player at tackle, but the other four spots are unsettled to various degrees. The second-best lineman, Ben Bredeson, was thrown into the fire as a freshman and looked like a freshman; he struggled in the last two games of 2016 against elite competition. Mike Onwenu is another sophomore and he’s unproven. The position battles at center and right tackle are concerning: the former’s down to a 5th-year senior who hasn’t really played and a true freshman, the latter feels like a total tossup between a half-dozen options. The players that Michigan lost weren’t particularly outstanding, but it’s no guarantee that any of the new starters will be an immediate upgrade over their predecessors. It’s possible that Greg Frey could work wonders, but the line is really young and I fear that it will be at least another year before the mediocrity that infected the position group during the Hoke era is fully exorcised.

The defense should still be amazing. The depth on the DL may not be quite as good as it was in 2016, but Gary-Hurst-Mone-Winovich is excellent and young players like Carlo Kemp and Aubrey Solomon should contribute nicely as part of the rotation. It will be fun to see who’s better between Mo Hurst and Rashan Gary – the former teleports into the backfield on seemingly every other play and the latter is as highly-touted as a prospect can possibly be. The loss of Jabrill Peppers will be felt, even if Khaleke Hudson does play as well as we think he can. Mike McCray and Devin Bush are excellent fits in the Don Brown defense and should wreak havoc in the backfield. Even with technically just one starter returning, the front seven will be very good. Between its talent and Brown’s blitzing, Michigan should be able to overwhelm most teams on its schedule like it did last season.

Michigan’s secondary was so excellent last season that the downsides of Brown’s aggressiveness weren’t really felt at all. With four new starters in the defensive backfield, there could be a lot more busts this season. It’s reassuring that Tyree Kinnel and Josh Metellus were able to convincingly lock down the starting safety spots, but neither player has played enough to feel totally confident in their ability to avoid giving up big plays. News about the position battle at CB is unsettling; if Jeremy Clark had been granted a medical redshirt, I’d feel a lot better – there’s going to be a big drop-off from last season’s CBs to this season’s, even if David Long and Lavert Hill are blue-chip sophomores. Fortunately there are one or two offenses on the schedule that look to be able to exploit the potential weakness back there.

The schedule itself gives Michigan a very high floor. They should be heavy favorites in eight games (Cincinnati, Air Force, @ Purdue, Michigan State, @ Indiana, Rutgers, Minnesota, and @ Maryland), so anything less than 8-4 would probably require several disasters. The four games that are circled on the schedule will define the season. Drawing an opponent like Florida in the opener would usually be cause for concern with such a young team, but the Gators have plenty of uncertainty themselves, and the Citrus Bowl from two years ago is still fresh in my mind. At the risk of jinxing it [knocks on wood], I think Michigan should be fine in that one.

The marquee games against Big Ten opponents will be tougher. The trip to Happy Valley could expose Michigan’s pass defense. The offense could get bogged down in Camp Randall. Michigan hasn’t beaten a good Ohio State team since 2003. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Michigan finish 9-3 with losses against those three teams. My guess is that Michigan splits Penn State and Wisconsin and heads into The Game with a chance at the Big East title and a playoff bid. UM lost by the thinnest of margins last season in Columbus, and even though the Buckeyes have a loaded squad in 2017, last year’s game showed that a team can arrive a year ahead of schedule if they get favorable bounces (figuratively speaking) and win a close one at home over their rival. It pains me to say it, but I have a hard time envisioning an upset in that game with recent history in mind – on top of Ohio State’s team being far older and more experienced.

10-2.

7. USC

#1 Pac-12 South, #1 Pac-12

10-3 (7-2) in 2016

Even after Pete Carroll left for the NFL following the 2009 season, the drama surrounding his former program remained – Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian were each hired as head coaches from the Carroll coaching tree (and well-liked interim coach Ed Orgeron, now in charge at LSU, was passed over for the latter); both Kiffin and Sarkisian were fired mid-season. The athletic department under Pat Haden was a mess, and Sarkisian was replaced by interim coach Clay Helton, who eventually was hired on a permanent basis after taking the Trojans to the Pac-12 Championship Game in 2015.

Haden’s last hire was criticized as uninspiring, but it seems to have worked out. Helton’s tenure as the permanent coach started off about as poorly as possible last September: the Trojans were beaten 52-6 in Jerryworld by Alabama in the opener and then after taking care of Utah State, USC lost its first two Pac-12 games on the road to Stanford and Utah. Helton initially made Max Browne the starting QB, but after the loss to Stanford, he gave the job to redshirt freshman Sam Darnold. Darnold was the starter in the loss to Utah; the Trojans lost on a fourth quarter comeback and game-winning touchdown in the final minute of that game.

From there, though, they were one of the best teams in the country. They won out – nine in a row – and their only close wins in that span were their win at home over eventual Pac-12 South champ Colorado and in the Rose Bowl over Penn State. USC’s performance at Washington – a 26-13 win over the Huskies – was one of the best games by any team all season, and the Trojans finished in the Top 5 of the rankings at the end of the season despite that disastrous 1-3 start. Darnold’s emergence wasn’t the only reason for that improvement, but the USC signal caller’s breakthrough raised the team’s ceiling immeasurably. Needless to say, the team that defeated Penn State in an epic 52-49 shootout in the Granddaddy of Them All bore little resemblance to the team that was routed by Bama to start the season.

With Darnold and most of the defense back, USC seems poised to challenge for a playoff bid and has a very good chance of finishing with more than ten wins for the first time since 2008. Darnold thrived in a mostly horizontal passing game in 2016 – completing 67% of his passes – and he’ll be without two of his top targets from last season in #1 option Juju Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rodgers. Deontay Burnett should be able to step in nicely to a bigger role in the passing game, and TE Daniel Imatorbhebhe came on near the end of last season. A bigger question may be the OL: the Trojans are without two star tackles from last season and will regress as a unit. How well they’re able to protect Darnold will determine if USC can have an elite offense.

As is tradition in Los Angeles, plenty of blue-chippers will step up to fill the void. LT Chuma Edoga was played sparingly throughout his career, but will be relied upon in 2017. WRs Michael Pittman (a sophomore) and Joseph Lewis (a freshman) could step up to soak up some of the targets lost with the departures at their position. One spot that’s settled is RB: Ronald Jones emerged much like Darnold did last season and received all-conference honors; his backups have plenty of talent as well. Despite having just five returning starters on offense, the group should be solid – Darnold is the headliner and will receive almost all the attention, but he’ll have a lot of help. It’s a good bet least one highly-touted recruit who’s waited in the wings will have a breakout season like Darnold and Jones did in 2016.

The defense was solid outside of the games bookending their season (52 points to Alabama, 49 to Penn State), and while they also have to replace several quality players, there are several proven contributors back. The losses will be felt most acutely in the secondary: the unit was prone to giving up big plays through the air and lost All-American CB Adoree’ Jackson and multi-year starting safety Leon McQuay. There’s an obvious candidate to replace Jackson as the Trojans’ #1 CB in Iman Marshall, a junior who shined from the start of his career and has fulfilled his incredible recruiting hype. FS Marvell Tell will be the last line of defense at the back. Nickel Ajene Harris received experience when others went down with injury a year ago.

The front seven (more like front six, given how often the Trojans play with five defensive backs) is talented and should be strong against the run again. LB Cameron Smith started as a freshman and has received all-conference honors twice; as a junior, he should break through as a star. Fellow juniors Porter Gustin and Rasheem Green are quality DL – Gustin was especially disruptive from his strongside end position. USC will need to find a new nose tackle to anchor the middle of the defense, but they have plenty of promising options to choose from. This defense’s game against Washington last November was extremely impressive and that was mostly due to the DL and LBs; if they can remain stout against the run while glitching less often at the back, USC will have one of the best defenses in the Pac-12.

The Trojans are being hyped as a national title contender, and while they recruit as well as almost anyone this side of Alabama and Ohio State, there are some questions. Darnold had the benefit of excellent WRs and a great pass-protecting OL to help him get adjusted to life at the college level; even though the NFL scouting community loves his abilities, there will probably be some rough spots as relative newcomers grow acclimated to being significant contributors. The Pac-12 South is a decent division, but there doesn’t seem to be an obvious challenger to USC; they should be able to win it to set up a showdown with Washington or a rematch with Stanford in the conference championship. An early matchup against Stanford at home will be huge: if the Trojans win, they’ll be in playoff projections for most of the season.

6. OKLAHOMA

#1 Big 12

11-2 (9-0) in 2016

Few coaches have dominated a conference like Bob Stoops did in the Big 12. In the eighteen seasons he was in Norman, Stoops won the conference ten times, his winning percentage was 81% against league opponents, and he won double digit games in all but four seasons. He won a national championship back in 2000 and his “Big Game Bob” nickname eventually took a derisive tone after some high-profile losses in BCS bowls, but almost every program would take the level of success he established in his time with the Sooners. The biggest news of the offseason came this summer when he unexpectedly retired – he’d been the longest-tenured Power 5 coach in college football and the decision itself was completely unexpected.

He handed the keys over to Lincoln Riley – an Air Raid guru who’d been his OC for two seasons – and in doing so, left one of college football’s blue-bloods in the hands of a man who will turn 34 years old a few days after his head coaching debut. OU’s stability is now a thing of the past; the question is whether its consistency is as well. The Sooner brass doesn’t consider this to be an interim situation, as they hired Riley to a five-year contract worth over three million per year. He inherits a team that finished in the Top 5 after winning its last ten games of the season and he’ll be expected to immediately contend for playoff appearances.

Oklahoma got off to a rough start in 2016. They opened the season against Houston in NRG Stadium (where the Texans play) and a kick-six field goal return touchdown helped swing the game; Houston didn’t wind up being the best team in the Group of 5, like many thought entering the year. OU beat UL-Monroe the next week, and then hosted Ohio State. That game was a disaster, as a young Buckeyes team facing its first tough road test handled Oklahoma and won by three touchdowns in Norman. The Sooner wouldn’t lose a game after that, going undefeated against the Big 12. Some of the games were closer than expected, but OU finished the regular season with decisive wins over Top 15 teams in West Virginia and Oklahoma State. They beat the Mountaineers 56-28 in a Morgantown snowstorm and won their second game in as many seasons against the Cowboys with the Big 12 title on the line. An easy win over Auburn in the Sugar Bowl made it ten straight wins.

With the Lincoln Riley / Baker Mayfield partnership together for another season, the Sooners are favorites to win the league again and will be a playoff contender. In two seasons with Riley as his OC, Mayfield has been one of the best QBs in the country: over two years, he’s thrown for 7,665 yards, 76 touchdowns, and only 15 interceptions – and he’s a credible running threat as well. He’s had different top targets (Sterling Shepard in 2015 and DeDe Westbrook in 2016) and likes to hone in on his top targets, he’ll probably help turn another WR into a star this season. Kentucky grad transfer rental Jeff Badet – who led the Wildcats in receiving yards in a bad passing offense – is the top candidate.

Even though Riley’s had prolific passing offenses, Oklahoma has also ran the ball well. They’ll need to replace what was probably the top RB tandem in college football in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon; both ran for over 1,000 yards in 2016 and Mixon was second on the team in receptions. The Sooners will need to find a new RB, but they have all the other ingredients for an elite ground game: Mayfield is undersized but mobile, all five starting OL return (including All-American LT Orlando Brown), and TE Mark Andrews is a terrific blocker (and a first-team all-conference pick last season). Whoever gets the carries will be stepping into an ideal situation – even though Riley’s an Air Raid coach, he can lean heavily on the run when he needs to.

As you might expect with an Air Raid team in the Big 12, the defense is suspect. In 2016, Oklahoma’s defense was the worst it’s been during DC Mike Stoops’s five seasons; they gave up 59 points and over 800 yards in an absurd shootout against Texas Tech (that they won!) and conceded over 40 points to Ohio State, TCU, and Texas. Their performance against a potent Oklahoma State offense in the regular season finale was promising, and it came after improvement over the second half of the season. Caleb Kelly emerged as a starter at LB in the latter part of the year and could be a budding star.

This defense should be much better against the pass than they were last year. Despite the presence of several quality passing offenses on every schedule Oklahoma faces, they usually defend it pretty well. Seniors Steven Parker and Jordan Thomas are cornerstones of what looks to be the best secondary in the Big 12; Parker plays as a box safety and Thomas was a first-team all-conference CB in 2016. DE / OLB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo totaled nine sacks a year ago and could be one of the best pass-rushers in the country; DT Neville Gallimore is a great athlete for being a nose tackle. Chances are that Oklahoma will give up plenty of points, partially due to their fast tempo, but there’s talent and the defense could be pretty good. Any team that gives up 59 points in a game the year before warrants skepticism on that side of the ball, though.

Oklahoma travels to Columbus in the second week of the season to face Ohio State in a game fraught with playoff implications. Since the Sooners were beaten so comprehensively in 2016 and OSU gets them at home, it would be an upset if they managed to defeat the Buckeyes. They should be better than the rest of the Big 12 though, and could make it into the playoff if they lose to OSU and run the table in league play again. Games on the road against Kansas State and Oklahoma State will be particularly tough though. It will be fascinating to see how Riley’s career plays out, and he has a plenty talented Sooners squad for his first team.

5. LSU

#2 SEC West, #2 SEC

8-4 (5-3) in 2016

It sure seems like LSU has gone from one wild ride to another. They finally parted ways with Les Miles; the eccentric head man was known for his quicky sound bites, dysfunctional late-game clock management, and love of eating grass, and his tenure is finally over. He’d been in Baton Rouge for over a decade, won one national title, made it to another BCS Championship, recruited at an elite level, and had ferocious defenses and mauling OLs. The flaws in his program grew more evident over time though, and two underachieving seasons in a row put him on the hot seat. He also hadn’t beaten Alabama since the blowout loss in the national title game rematch back in 2011.

Miles started the 2016 season with a frustrating loss in Green Bay against Wisconsin (the Badgers held LSU to just 257 yards and the Tigers replaced multi-year starting QB Brandon Harris afterwards). A few weeks later, after a classic Les Miles defeat to Auburn featuring a bizarre finish and an impotent offense that wasted an excellent defensive performance, the administration had enough. Ed Oregron took over in the interim and even though the Tigers went 6-2 down the stretch, a shutout against Alabama (in which LSU had just 6 first downs) and a 16-10 loss to Florida seemed to diminish Coach O’s chances of getting the permanent job. A 29-9 win over a good Louisville squad in the Citrus Bowl may have helped him, and after LSU made a pass at Tom Herman (who’s now at Texas), they gave the job to the Coach O.

Miles had a very strong personality and Orgeron does as well. The Louisiana native has a strong Cajun accent, a gregariousness that’s laced with the characteristic intensity of a HC; he’s a good ol’ boy who just got his dream job. Orgeron turned things around as the interim coach at USC in 2012 and to a lesser extent at LSU last season – famously a player’s coach in Los Angeles, it was a disappointment when he was passed over for Steve Sarkisian as the HC there. Orgeron’s disastrous tenure at Ole Miss ended over a decade ago, and he’ll be given another chance to succeed in the SEC West. Of course, Miles’s lack of job security late in his tenure indicated that the administration demands a consistently high level of success.

It wasn’t hard to see what the problem was with LSU last season. The passing game was slightly better when Purdue transfer Danny Etling took over at QB, but the Tigers haven’t topped over 200 passing yards per game since 2013 and it was inconsistent at best in 2016. Against most of the schedule, LSU could lean heavily on its run offense, but they faced some elite run defenses in Wisconsin, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida, and scored just 14, 13, 0, and 10 points in those games. Orgeron brought in OC Matt Canada (who built an awesome offense at Pitt in his single season there) to turn things around, and the talent’s definitely there: Etling has a low ceiling, but LSU – as always – has a lot of potential at the WR position.

Odds are that Canada will run the ball often – his style isn’t much of an ideological departure from what Miles’s offenses were supposed to look like – and he’ll have one of the best RBs in the country toting the ball in Derrius Guice. Guice received few carries last September, but when star Leonard Fournette was injured, Guice emerged – even though Fournette played intermittently afterwards, Guice had 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns. He’s more of a breakaway runner than most of LSU’s RBs have been, but he can churn out yards as well. The line loses All-American center Ethan Pocic – though first-team all-conference guard Will Clapp will move to that spot. LSU’s line couldn’t create much push against stacked boxes from elite defenses, and they’ll need a passing threat to give Guice some breathing room against those teams in 2017.

Dave Aranda had one of the best defenses in college football after he took over as DC for the 2016, and Orgeron managed to keep him around for this season. Eventually he’ll be hired somewhere as a head coach, as his track record has been excellent – before LSU, he was at Wisconsin and with Gary Andersen at Utah State. Outside of a shootout against Texas A&M, the Tigers allowed 21 points or fewer in every contest; they held Alabama scoreless through three quarters in a game straight out of the 1950s. They’ve lost a lot from that defense: CB Tre’Davious White and safety Jamal Adams were All-Americans, and LBs Duke Riley and Tashawn Bower were third-round picks in the NFL draft.

Miles left the cupboard stocked with talent though, and there shouldn’t be much of a drop-off (except perhaps in the secondary). 3-4 DE Christian LaCouture took a medical redshirt last season, but had a promising career trajectory before that; OLB Arden Key was one of the best edge defenders in the SEC, a conference that was full of elite players in that role; MLB Devin White was excellent in a limited role and could thrive in more playing time; the secondary has some veterans who haven’t shown much star potential and a cast of youngsters that could have it. Miles’s defenses usually reloaded instead of rebuilding and even though he’s gone, he recruited the current roster. With one of the best DCs in college football in Aranda, LSU should be just fine.

If the defensive backfield is as nasty as it’s been for most of the past decade (which is definitely an open question), LSU’s defense should be playoff-caliber. Its running game will be about as good as it gets. Their chances of upending Alabama, winning the SEC West, and perhaps going on to bigger and better things from there hinge on how well Canada’s able to turn around what had been a prehistoric passing offense that almost always did less with more. Perhaps Orgeron and company will shake those particular demons from the Miles era in time, but it seems unlikely that they’ll do it in year one.