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12. PENN STATE

#3 Big Ten East, #3 Big Ten

11-3 (8-1) in 2016

In 2016, Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State were supposed to duke it out at the top of the Big Ten East (lol @ MSU); Penn State recovered from a rough start to the season to win the division and the conference championship. The addition of Joe Moorhead as OC was critical, as the Nittany Lions increased their scoring average by 14.4 points per game, and first-year starter Trace McSorley was a significant upgrade over longtime QB Christian Hackenberg. That offense was especially good in the second half of the season and caught fire near the end – torching a great Wisconsin defense in the Big Ten Championship Game and turning in a ridiculous performance in defeat (52-49) against USC in the Rose Bowl.

James Franklin had gone just 14-12 to start his tenure at Penn State, and the Nittany Lions didn’t garner much hype entering 2016. They lost to Pittsburgh in a shootout on the road and were destroyed by Michigan in Ann Arbor to open Big Ten play, but a home win over Ohio State in Happy Valley – the game-winning touchdown came on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown – turned things around and PSU won the tiebreaker over the Buckeyes at the end of the regular season. Wisconsin initially leapt out to an early lead over Penn State in Indianapolis, but big plays in the passing game helped erase what was a three-score deficit. Franklin won a Big Ten title and was rewarded with a lucrative contract extension this offseason.

Coming off of that Rose Bowl appearance, expectations are quite high for the Nittany Lions, and they’re expected to contend for the conference title and a playoff appearance again. They actually have more experience returning than they did last year, including All-American RB Saquon Barkley. The electric back ran for 1,496 yards and 18 touchdowns a year ago, and should be one of the best players at his position in the country. He’s also a threat in the passing game, and his highlight reels are virtually unmatched by any current college football players. He’s had to make due with mediocre OLs (that have slowly but steadily improved) throughout his career, and to be fair, he’s kind of a boom-or-bust runner. Even though four starters on the line return again, it’s not likely that they’ll be very impactful in the running game.

McSorley is back as well, and his progression in Moorhead’s offense could make the PSU offense even better in 2017. His top target in the passing game – WR Chris Godwin – is gone, but every other player who caught more than a couple passes last season is back. TE Mike Gesicki is more of a flex weapon; even though his blocking is poor, he’s still a tremendous asset because of his size, catch radius, and ability to high-point the ball in the downfield passing game. Moorhead’s offense has often been derided as a “chuck and pray” type system (and there is some merit to that characterization), but the results have been impressive and McSorley did throw just eight interceptions a year ago. Regardless of the methodology, it was effective (outside of that game in Ann Arbor and, to a lesser extent, against Ohio State as well). Whether it’s sustainable is the biggest question for Penn State in 2017.

In PSU’s three losses, they gave up 42, 49, and 52 points, but otherwise, the unit was pretty decent. Injuries throughout the season at LB decimated the run defense at times – particularly against Michigan, a game in which walk-ons and emergency position switches were relied upon heavily – and better luck in that regard could lead to improvement. There aren’t as many starters returning on defense as there are on offense, and the Nittany Lions will need to replace key contributors from each position group. Franklin’s hire of Moorhead drew much more attention, but he had two new co-DCs last season as well, so increased familiarity with the coaches should help the defense.

FS Marcus Allen was the leading tackler a year ago – few players are comparably strong against the run from his position. LB Jason Cabinda – one of the Nittany Lion LBs who were injured for parts of last season – is back as well. PSU will need replacements at DE to step up in particular, as they’re breaking in new starting ends, but the two-deep at DT looks to be solid. Along with Cabinda, Manny Bowen and Koa Farmer make it an above average LB corps. Even with Allen patrolling the secondary, that unit could be a negative due to the CB play. Penn State’s defense was solid in 2016, but to mitigate the losses they had, they’ll need new contributors to step up and become playmakers.

Penn State spent most of the season unranked last year – before winning the Big Ten and ultimately finishing as the first team left out of the playoff. Even though they return a ton of offensive talent (and will be entering their second season with a new scheme), the line is still a problem and the defense may not be quite good enough to keep them in playoff contention. Back-to-back games at Ohio State and home against Michigan in late October will be decisive – if PSU somehow manages to win both, they’ll have the inside track to a playoff spot.

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11. FLORIDA

#1 SEC East, #4 SEC

9-4 (6-2) in 2016

Since taking over the program before the 2015 season, Jim McElwain has had an interesting tenure at Florida. Despite losing eight games over two seasons, the Gators have won back-to-back SEC East titles (clearing the closest competition by two games in the standings in each season) after a relatively long drought prior to his arrival. McElwain – one of several SEC East coaches who are part of the Nick Saban coaching tree – has won mostly with defense, despite his background being on the offensive side of the ball. Despite improving on Will Muschamp’s tenure, McElwain still has detractors – he’s lost to Florida State twice by a combined 58-15 margin and never came close to challenging Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. The Gators lost to the Tide by a score of 54-16 last season.

It wasn’t long ago that Florida was one of the premier programs in the country, so the current state of things looks poor by comparison. In 2016, UF had a weird season: once again, they cycled through starting quarterbacks, alternating between Oregon State transfer Luke Del Rio and Purdue transfer Austin Appleby. A late September loss to Tennessee was the only blemish they had in their first seven games, and they ascended the rankings before taking a three-touchdown loss on the road to Arkansas. They won a crucial late-season game against LSU that had to be rescheduled due to a hurricane, and after the consecutive losses to Florida State and Alabama, the Gators destroyed Iowa in the Outback Bowl to get to 9-4 on the season. Impressively, the defense held opponents to 14 points or fewer in every win – including some games in which the offense really struggled (13-6 against Vanderbilt, 16-10 against LSU).

The script shouldn’t be much different for 2017: the Gators project to have a great, possibly elite defense, a mediocre at best offense, and uncertainty at the QB position. Even though several high-profile defenders left for the NFL following last season (including much of the back seven), Florida recruits at a very high level and the talent dropoff shouldn’t be too significant, especially as most backups flashed some promise during cameo appearances in 2016. McElwain’s teams have built on the strong foundation laid by Muschamp on that side of the ball, allowing 18.3 points per game in 2015 and 16.8 in 2016.

Still, including safety Marcell Harris (who was lost to a knee injury in camp), the Gators must replace their top four tacklers from last season. Sophomore LBs David Reese and Kylan Johnson should step into bigger roles after playing very well in relief of injured teammates (including Jarrad Davis, the Detroit Lions’ first-round pick (poor guy)); DEs Jabari Zuniga and Cece Jefferson should anchor the line. The defensive backfield is frighteningly low on experience after losing Harris and three second-round draft picks, but will be aided by the dearth of explosive passing offenses on the schedule. Florida’s old DC was promoted to a head coaching job at Temple, so how well Randy Shannon is able to maintain that group’s success is a big subplot for the Gators.

The defense will need to stay elite, as the offense is unsettled again. The QB position is still up for grabs after several seasons in which Florida started multiple players over the course of the year. Notre Dame grad transfer Malik Zaire was expected to win the job, but hasn’t yet. Redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks, a tall gunslinger, enters the picture and could win the job. Del Rio is still around – he threw for 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions last season, and was generally outplayed by Appleby, who exhausted his eligibility. Needless to say, it doesn’t bode well for OC Doug Nussmeier and company if the Gators can’t settle on a QB.

Nussmeier’s been the OC for two seasons, and Florida hasn’t been much better on the ground; the Gators evidently haven’t taken well to his zone running game, totaling under 4 yards per carry in both 2015 and 2016 despite the presence of plenty of blue-chippers. RB Jordan Scarlett made the best of a bad situation a year ago and returns – he was able to churn out far more yards than his line was able to block for him. The rest of the skill positions are well set, as UF brings back its top three RBs, all three starting WRs, and both halves of its TE platoon. The best player of that group, by far, is WR Antonio Callaway – a deadly deep threat and special teams maverick who’s been constantly in trouble in Gainesville. After his most recent issue, he’s suspended “indefinitely.” The OL is replacing two starters, but there’s a lot of raw talent there: new LT Martez Ivey is a former five-star who was an all-conference performer at guard.

Florida’s annual season finale against Florida State means that they’re usually unwilling to challenge themselves much more than that against out-of-conference programs, but they’re leaving the Sunshine State for the first time in a generation to face a team from outside the SEC – opening the season in Dallas against Michigan. McElwain’s Gators were thrashed by Harbaugh’s Wolverines in the Citrus Bowl two seasons ago, though neither team has many contributors remaining from those 2015 squads. Regardless of how the opener goes, Florida should again be a leading contender for the SEC East. A mid-September showdown against Tennessee (at home) could put them in the driver’s seat, but their rivalry game against Georgia in late October may be the game that defines the race for the division crown. In any case, there’s a good chance that whoever wins the East will be cannon fodder for Alabama in Atlanta.

10. STANFORD

#1 Pac-12 North, #2 Pac-12

10-3 (6-3) in 2016

Note: Stanford opened their season this past Saturday with a 62-7 win over a hapless Rice team in Sydney, Australia. The Cardinal OL was dominant, and they only punted once all game. Starting RB Bryce Love ran for 13.8 yards per carry, and backup RB Cameron Scarlett scored three touchdowns. As with most of these types of games against overmatched opponents, there’s not much to read into this performance. They’ll be at the other end of the degree of difficulty spectrum when they visit USC in their next game (on Sept. 9).

Historically, Stanford football has languished near the bottom of the Pac-[X] Conference, but they’re now one of college football’s strongest programs. Jim Harbaugh deserves plenty of credit for laying the foundation – as, in the last season before he left for the NFL, the Cardinal went 12-1 and won a BCS Bowl game – but David Shaw has maintained and built upon that foundation. During his tenure, they’ve gone 64-17 over seven seasons, winning the Pac-12 in half of his seasons as the head coach in Palo Alto. Harbaugh got them there and Shaw kept them there; with Jim’s four-year tenure so far in the rearview mirror, it’s Shaw’s program. He’s one of the best coaches in the country and Stanford’s anachronistic, bruising style is about as unique as there is at a big-time program right now.

That the 2016 season – a 10-3 campaign – felt like a disappointment shows how far Stanford’s come. They won their first three games (though they scored 27 points or fewer in each contest); Kansas State and USC were quality wins. A month-long stretch of the middle of the season – which coincided with injury issues for star RB Christian McCaffery – was absolutely brutal and derailed their season. They lost at Washington 44-6, came home and were defeated Washington State, 42-16, had to come back in the second half to win at Notre Dame, and then dropped a 10-5 stinker at home to Colorado. They won their last five regular season games, all against teams that failed to make a bowl game, and won the Sun Bowl over North Carolina to get to ten wins.

It was easy to point to the offense as the crux of Stanford’s issues. Even when McCaffery was less than 100%, the Cardinal braintrust force-fed him the ball, and his effectiveness slipped quite a bit as he became progressively more dinged-up. In their three losses, they totaled 1.0, 2.3, and 2.8 yards per carry, something that seems unthinkable for a modern Stanford team A midseason QB change to then-sophomore Keller Chryst helped somewhat, but his rise coincided with games against the weakest defenses on Stanford’s schedule. At least he played relatively mistake-free football (throwing two interceptions in 136 attempts), something that couldn’t be said of the former starter, Ryan Burns.

The good news is that – aside from McCaffery, who’s a huge loss – pretty much everyone is back on offense. The OL was inexperienced last season (and had lost a few elite linemen), and should be much better, as returning starters A.T. Hall, David Bright, Brandon Fanaika, and Jesse Burkett are all juniors. Last season, Stanford didn’t have any all-conference linemen (not even honorable mention); it’s likely that they’ll get at least one this season. RB Bryce Love isn’t going to be able to replicate what McCaffery did, but he’s elusive and should put up big numbers behind that OL. Chryst returns as well – he’ll have both starting receivers back, but neither player topped over 500 yards receiving last season and a freshman (Connor Wedington, who was recruited as a RB) had the most receptions against Rice.

Stanford’s defense was clearly better than its offense in 2016, but the storylines are similar for 2017: despite losing a star (DE Solomon Thomas, who actually led the Cardinal in tackles a year ago, was an All-American who’s now off to the NFL), there’s a lot of experience back – led by a strong junior class – and the unit as a whole should improve. Thomas drew a ton of attention up front on the line, and the returning DL will have to adjust to his absence. Harrison Williams is an undersized NT at the center of the 3-4 and he was an impact player a year ago.

The strength of the defense lies in its LBs and secondary, two groups that should have the Cardinal defense playing at a high level. Part of the reason why a lineman led the team in tackles is that Stanford rotated heavily between its LBs; few teams have the luxury of that depth and all of the key pieces are back. OLB Joey Alfieri was the biggest playmaker in the backfield of that group; OLB Peter Kalambayi and ILB Bobby Okereke were also particularly solid. Three of four starters return in the secondary – CBs Alijah Holder and Quenton Meeks were disruptive on the outside and FS Justin Reid was one of the Pac-12’s best safeties in 2016. Aside from Kalambayi, all of the players listed above on defense have eligibility remaining after this year.

Stanford’s one of the most experienced power conference teams in the country, and chances are that they could be even more experienced next season, depending on NFL early entries. The Cardinal will challenge for the division and the conference title again like they always have under Shaw, but they could be setting up for a potentially huge 2018 campaign. Their matchup against Washington comes late in the season and at home; if they win that one, chances are that they’ll come away with the North title. Even though they’d be a year ahead of schedule, this team could make the playoff if Chryst continues to improve and the offense as a whole breaks out of its funk.

9. AUBURN

#3 SEC West, #3 SEC

8-5 (5-3) in 2016

Gus Malzahn has been a part of some special seasons at Auburn: in 2010, he was the OC for a 14-0 national title team that featured Cam Newton at QB; he took over as the head coach in 2013 and led the Tigers to a BCS Championship Game appearance – that was the season they upset then-#1 Alabama on the incredible “Kick Six” play a week after a miracle touchdown late in the game to beat Georgia. Malzahn’s also been a part of some very average seasons at Auburn: in his other two years as the OC, they went 8-5 twice; in the other three years as the head coach, they’ve gone 8-5 twice and 7-6 once. In 2014, they spent much of the season in the Top 5, but lost their last four games against Power 5 competition.

In 2016, the Tigers started the season with a closer-than-expected home loss to eventual national champs Clemson and dropped their first SEC game at home against Texas A&M. Malzahn eventually promoted Sean White to starting QB over ineffective veteran Jeremy Johnson, and Auburn won five games in a row, all but one against SEC opposition, including some blowouts over Mississippi State and Arkansas. White was injured late in the season and the Tigers lost to their last three Power 5 opponents. Expectations were lower after two years in which they’d started in the Top 10, and the defense was great throughout, but ultimately issues at QB seemed to cast a pall over Auburn’s entire season.

That question appears to be answered. Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham won the job in the fall and looked incredible as a freshman at BU before getting injured in 2015 and transferring in the wake of that program’s scandal. He should be able to provide the downfield passing game Auburn’s offense has sorely lacked for a while now, and while he won’t put up the gaudy numbers he would have in Waco, the idea of a QB from the Art Briles offense playing for Gus Malzahn is intriguing. Malzahn and former HC Gene Chizik won the title with Newton – a generational talent – and he won twelve games with former Georgia CB Nick Marshall running the show. Stidham is a different player than both (though he is mobile enough to handle the elements of Malzahn’s offense that call for him to run the ball), and chances are that he won’t need to run as much as either did.

The running game should be just fine with the RBs – Auburn is up there with the best position groups in the country. Their main back is Kamryn Pettway, a powerful runner who had 1,224 yards and 7 touchdowns a year ago (and ran for 5.9 yards per carry as the feature back). He could stake a credible claim as the SEC’s best RB in 2017 – even with LSU’s Derrius Guice, UGA’s Nick Chubb, and Alabama’s Bo Scarbrough in the picture. Kerryon Johnson was quite effective as a change of pace, and he scored 11 touchdowns last season. The OL was great at paving the way for those two last season; three starters are back (including star guard Braden Smith) and two grad transfers are promising options to fill the vacancies. Auburn’s offense hasn’t been great in every season Malzahn’s on campus, but the potential’s always there and things look great on paper for this year. They also have possibly the best kicker in the country in Daniel Carlson.

DC Kevin Steele improved Auburn’s defense in 2016, his first season on the plains, and returns most of what made last year’s unit so successful. Steele was hired to replace Will Muschamp and stabilize a job that had undergone a ton of turnover; even though his tenure at other programs was less than inspiring, he made things work at Auburn. He does lose two All-American players on the DL – end Carl Lawson and tackle Montravious Adams, as well as some key backups, from one of the SEC’s best DLs. There’s a lot of talent there, but it’s unproven, and the group figures to take a step back in 2017 – even though DE Marlon Davidson could be a star.

The back seven has had less turnover and should be great again. The top three tacklers from last season – safety Tray Matthews, LBs Tre’ Williams and Deshaun Davis – return from last year’s team. The LB unit is particularly deep; CB Carlton Davis and versatile safety Stephen Roberts are also standouts in the secondary. Two starters must be replaced in the defensive backfield (the other CB and Auburn’s nickel), so there could be some uneasy moments back there, particularly because the unit gave up some big passing plays in 2016. Still, the defense as a whole will likely be one of the SEC’s better groups: there’s definitely returning talent and there’s enough blue-chip talent to fill the gaps.

Auburn has a very tough schedule: they travel to Clemson in the second week of the season in the second leg of that home-and-home; along with their permanent cross-division rival Georgia, they get to face the rest of the SEC West – and a three-game stretch has three road games (LSU, Arkansas, and A&M). Because Alabama’s the favorite to win the division and make the playoff for the fourth consecutive season, Auburn’s playoff hopes are overshadowed, even though they have a strong case as the second-best team in the division – if they manage to upset the Tide in the Iron Bowl, they could break through.