Hoops Preview: Nebraska, Part Two

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Nobody played much defense in the first matchup. [Marc-Gregor Campredon/MGoBlog]

THE US

On the last day of the regular season, there's still plenty to be determined regarding Big Ten Tournament seeding. The other two games to keep an eye on today are Iowa-PSU (1 pm, BTN) and Purdue-Northwestern (4:30 pm, CBS). Michigan may very well be locked into the eight-seed by the time tonight's game tips off, but there's a chance they can move up as high as the six-seed:

8. Michigan (9-8)
Locked into single bye, will play on Thursday no matter what
Clinches #6 seed with win at Nebraska + Northwestern win + Iowa loss
Clinches #7 seed with win + Northwestern loss + Iowa loss
Clinches #8 seed with loss OR Iowa win 

As for the NCAA Tournament picture, Michigan is holding onto a nine-seed on most projections, including Jerry Palm's and Joe Lunardi's, and they're an eight-seed on Crashing The Dance. ESPN's Eamonn Brennan is on the verge of moving the Wolverines into lock territory:

We thought about locking in the Spartans and the Wolverines alongside Northwestern, but where the Wildcats have just a home date against Purdue left on their regular-season schedule -- plus a guaranteed 10-8 conference record even if they lose -- Michigan travels to Nebraska for its regular-season closer Sunday. A loss would add another sub-top-50 loss to the Wolverines' resume, as well as set them back to 9-9 in league play. Again: Michigan should be in. It almost certainly will get in. But we're just, you know, being careful.

Win and they're in. Lose and they're probably still in, especially since Illinois is locked into the BTT nine-seed; Bart Torvik's BTT simulator says Michigan would have a 70% chance of winning that 8/9 matchup.

THE LAST TIME

In the first game after the Illinois debacle and subsequent players-only meeting, Michigan didn't exactly fix their defense, but they came out on top anyway in a 91-85 shootout at Crisler. Moe Wagner, Derrick Walton, and Zak Irvin all scored 20+ for Michigan, while Tai Webster (28) and Glynn Watson (22) shouldered the load for the Huskers. Notably, Nebraska was missing forward Ed Morrow due to a foot injury; he's been back in the lineup for the last six games.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

After a 3-0 start in the Big Ten, Nebraska has gone 3-11 with just a 2-5 mark at home during that stretch. They're a tough team to figure out: one of those wins was over Purdue and they took Wisconsin to overtime before falling by one; they also lost to Illinois by 16 in their most recent home game.

This team leans heavily on the backcourt pairing of Tai Webster and Glynn Watson. Both thrived in the first matchup as Michigan looked incapable of defending the pick-and-roll. Webster, an iffy outside shooter, is more liable to go all the way to the basket, while Watson is more of a perimeter-oriented sharpshooter. Evan Taylor rounds out the starting backcourt; he's a defensive specialist who's mostly absent from the offense and not very effective when he does get involved on that end.

The rest of the team is rather unremarkable. Sophomore forward Ed Morrow's absense loomed large over the first matchup but he hasn't been very effective since his return from a foot injury, going 19/44 from the field with 13 turnovers and only one block in the last six games. While he's rebounding well, he seems to be lacking some of his pre-injury explosiveness.

Morrow, in fact, has been coming off the bench, ceding his starting spot to big man Jordy Tshimanga. The 6'11, 275-pound freshman has the rebounding numbers to match his stature, but he's still developing the rest of his game; he's shooting 44% from the field and 60% from the line with elevated turnover and foul rates.

The remainder of the rotation is a pile of forwards. Michael Jacobson, who starts at the four and can play the five in a pinch, is another good rebounder who struggles to score with efficiency. Jack McVeigh and Jeriah Horne are both perimeter-oriented scorers off the bench; McVeigh is the more accurate shooter. Isaiah Roby is an impactful rim protector but poor shooting and a 35% turnover rate makes it tough for him to stay on the floor.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

Nebraska is not a strong shooting team. They're 13th in the conference in two-point percentage and eighth in three-point percentage on the second-lowest rate of attempts. For a team that takes so many of their shots inside the arc, they rarely get to the line, and they don't shoot particularly well from there either. Offensive rebounding is their lone strength on that end.

The defense, which held strong through nonconference play, has been bombed from the perimeter by Big Ten teams, which are making 41.7% of their threes against the Huskers. They're third in the conference in steals and mediocre in just about every other defensive category.

THE KEYS

Improved pick-and-roll defense. Nebraska scored 1.21 points per possession in the first matchup, and the primary driver of that offensive performance was the pick-and-roll. Michigan did a terrible job of containing Webster, who went 11-for-17 on two-pointers and dished out four assists, albeit with five turnovers. Michigan's defensive renaissance began after that game; they should do a better job of keeping Webster away from the hoop, and also preventing Watson from stepping into open threes off the same action.

Keep the rebounding even. Nebraska is heavily reliant on second-chance opportunities to keep their offense going. It can be difficult to box out across the board against an opponent that causes so much rotation with the pick-and-roll. Michigan has to find a way to not only contain the guards but make sure they recover once the shot goes up

Pick, pop, repeat. The Huskers had no answer for the pick-and-pop the last time around; Moe Wagner went 4-for-6 on three-pointers and DJ Wilson hit 3-of-4. With the ponderous Tshimanga getting more minutes, that should continue to be an effective play against Nebraska.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 4.

Michigan and Nebraska have both been tough teams to predict this year, but the advantage goes to the Wolverines because of their decided edge in the shooting department.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Dylan with a deep dive into some encouraging numbers for M's hopes of making a postseason run.