[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
With one game left in the regular season, the Big Ten Tournament picture is becoming clearer – there are still a wide variety of potential outcomes, but most teams have a pretty good idea of where they’ll end up. With Michigan’s recent heartbreaking loss to Northwestern, and Iowa’s impressive road win over Wisconsin, it’s likely that Michigan will find itself playing in the 8/9 game on Thursday afternoon against none other than Illinois, the team that may have sparked the Michigan turnaround with a blowout win and Maverick Morgan’s harsh-but-mostly-true “white collar” comment. Derrick Walton in particular has been playing blue-collar ball as of late, and I’m sure he’d relish another shot at the Illini even though Michigan won the rematch.
This excellent post by Dan Baker at The Only Colors outlines the potential outcomes of this weekend of action across the Big Ten (and it’s definitely worth a click to read through in-depth) – right now, this is what the bracket would look like if there’s chalk in the remaining seven games:
The favorites in the remaining games (according to Kenpom) are in bold:
- Indiana at Ohio State
- Illinois at Rutgers
- Michigan State at Maryland
- Penn State at Iowa
- Purdue at Northwestern
- Minnesota at Wisconsin
- Michigan at Nebraska
A look at some possible seed outcomes after the JUMP.
Michigan is the 8-seed if
- Iowa defeats Penn State
OR
- Nebraska defeats Michigan
This is by far the likeliest scenario. Iowa enters the weekend on a three-game winning streak – including road wins over Maryland and Wisconsin – and hosts Penn State, a team that has lost four games in a row. It’s the first meeting between the two teams; both have promising freshmen that will elevate the program in the coming years, but Iowa has Peter Jok – a senior who’s a lethal scorer. Penn State could theoretically pull the upset, which would help Michigan move up the seed line, but an Iowa win over the Nittany Lions on Sunday would cement Michigan into the 8 spot, even before the Wolverines take the floor against Nebraska later that evening.
If Penn State does pull the upset, Michigan would need to win that game in Lincoln to move up. Earlier this season, Michigan beat Nebraska at home in a tightly-contested game with little defense to speak of on either side; the Huskers were without one of their best players (big man Ed Morrow) but their guards lit up Michigan to the tune of 1.21 points per possession. Still, Nebraska is tied for last in the conference (among non-Rutgers teams) and this is a game Michigan should win. It would certainly erase any doubt about the Wolverines’ tournament chances.
Baker’s ratings system gives Michigan an 82% chance of landing as the eight-seed. It would be the third season in a row that they have played in the 8/9 game (and possibly the first of two 8/9 games in as many weeks).
However, there’s still a chance Michigan could be playing on Thursday evening instead of Thursday afternoon:
Michigan is the 7-seed if
- Michigan State defeats Maryland
- Penn State defeats Iowa
- Michigan defeats Nebraska
OR
- Penn State defeats Iowa
- Purdue defeats Northwestern
- Michigan defeats Nebraska
Michigan is the 6-seed if
- Maryland defeats Michigan State
- Penn State defeats Iowa
- Northwestern defeats Purdue
- Michigan defeats Nebraska
The only way Michigan escapes the 8-seed would be if Penn State and Michigan both win on Sunday. In that case, the Wolverines would be assured of the 6- or 7-seed, depending on how games featuring teams in the top half of the conference go this weekend. Michigan State @ Maryland (on Saturday) and Purdue @ Northwestern (on Sunday) would determine where Michigan ends up: if Maryland and Northwestern were to both win, Michigan would leapfrog Michigan State and wind up with the 6-seed. If either State or Purdue get a road win, the Wolverines would receive the 7-seed.
So who will they play?
If Iowa beats Penn State, Michigan will play Illinois in the 8/9 game, no matter what. Since Kenpom gives the Hawkeyes a 70% chance of winning that game, there’s a pretty big chance Derrick Walton will get another shot at Maverick Morgan in the Wolverines’ first Big Ten Tournament game. If Iowa opens the door with a loss (but Michigan doesn’t take advantage and loses to Nebraska), the Wolverines will be the 8-seed and face Iowa in the 8/9 game instead, assuming that Illinois takes care of Rutgers on the road. That “Illinois W, Penn State W, Nebraska W” scenario isn’t particularly likely, to say the least.
Purdue has already locked up the outright conference title and is locked in as the 1-seed. Fortunately Michigan has already beaten Purdue (in a game that featured Moritz Wagner ethering the vaunted Boilermaker frontcourt), but they’re definitely the best team in the Big Ten and therefore not an appealing second Big Ten Tournament matchup. At the very least, there’s little chance of a truly bad loss anywhere if Michigan finds itself in that 8/9 game: Illinois and Iowa aren’t bad enough to deal a huge blow to the Wolverines’ resume.
It’s a long shot – roughly a 5% chance, according to Kenpom – that four games break the right way and Michigan vaults up to the 6-seed; it’s more probable that the Wolverines will be the 7-seed if Penn State comes through with the upset over Iowa and Michigan takes care of business against Nebraska. Ohio State has a good chance of being the 10-seed, and they’d lock that up with a home win over Indiana this weekend. If Indiana wins that game (and Michigan beats Nebraska), the Hoosiers would be the 10-seed. The winner of this weekend’s Minnesota @ Wisconsin game will be the 2-seed and face the winner of the 7/10 game.
TL;DR – Michigan will probably play Illinois in the 8/9 game and face Purdue if they win. We’ll be rooting for Penn State, who needs to beat Iowa for Michigan to finish in a better spot that the 8-seed. If that does happen, whoever wins the Ohio State – Indiana game will be awaiting the Wolverines in the 7/10 game; the winner of that game will face the 2-seed, who will be the winner of Wisconsin – Minnesota.