Preview: Iowa 2016

Essentials

Overview

This year's Iowa team is not like last year's Iowa 12-2 team... or is it? Last year the Hawkeyes scraped by a wide variety of iffy opponents en route to a blowout loss to Stanford in the Rose Bowl that was over halfway through the first quarter. They finished 47th in S&P+.

This year's outfit is 5-4 with a loss to an FCS team; they are coming off a Stanford-style blowout against Penn State. S&P+ ranks them... 49th. Last year's record looks like the outlier placed against the last decade of Kirk Ferentz teams. At least his contract runs out soon.

This isn't a 12-0 team that's run into really bad luck. But neither is this MSU or Illinois. Iowa's not good, but they're not bad. Michigan's last four opponents range from 74th to 110th in S&P+; this will be Michigan's stiffest test since they ran the 9-10-11 gauntlet against Colorado, Wisconsin, and Penn State.

Run Offense vs Iowa

the outlaw Josey Jewell

There's been little consistency in Iowa's week to week performances on the ground. Minnesota and Wisconsin scuffled to around 3.5 YPC; Penn State gashed Iowa for almost 7; Northwestern and North Dakota State were slightly under 5. (Like everyone, they killed Purdue.)

This has not added up to pleasant fancystats; Iowa's 87th on the ground in S&P+, and it starts up front. Iowa's 118th in line yards and 126th in stuff rate. Iowa opponents rarely get TFLed; they rarely get stuffed. The Hawkeyes are better at preventing long runs but only around average in those stats. It's a very conservative run defense that ends up bleeding you down the field.

Iowa has six DL in heavy rotation; PFF thinks all of them are B- players against the run except Nathan Bazata, who gets a B+, and Faith Ekakitie, who gets a C-. MLB Josey Jewell is one of three star players on the defense and grades out as well as his reputation would suggest; he's one of the best linebackers Michigan will face this year. Nominal spacebacker Ben Niemann is another B- guy; Bo Bower is... not.

That would be good enough to be average or good-ish if the secondary didn't have to get involved. It does. It has not gone well. Ace:

With an iffy front seven against the run, safety play becomes paramount, and that's a problem for Iowa. Starters Brandon Snyder and Miles Taylor have combined for 25(!) missed tackles so far this season, per PFF. Neither was in a great situation here with Saquon Barkley hitting the edge at full speed, but Snyder (#37) takes a bad angle and Taylor (#19) does the same farther downfield and wipes out.

Iowa has stats characteristic of terrible safety play: they're fifth in the Big Ten in 10+ yard plays allowed, 8th in 20+ yard plays, and tied with Purdue at 12th in 30+ yard plays. This is a defense that won't get blown to Kingdom come like Maryland did; they'll bleed four or five yards at a time until a safety blows it.

Michigan's rush offense is somewhat hampered by youth and a lineup shuffle but the running backs have been on point much of the year and there are a blizzard of them. This won't be the PSU game because Michigan doesn't have a guy who will punish you as ruthlessly as a Saquon Barkley; it should be another game where Iowa gives up around 5 YPC.

KEY MATCHUP: CHRIS EVANS versus A SAFETY IN SPACE. Evans is Michigan's most explosive runner and the one most likely to leave an Iowa safety grasping air and thinking "oh no, not again."

[Hit THE JUMP for OH MAN THIS LINE against MICHIGAN'S DL is a THING I SAY EVERY WEEK NOW]

Pass Offense vs Iowa

if you come at the king you have made a bad tactical decision because the rest of Iowa's secondary is mediocre

Despite the presence of Desmond King this could be another big day for Wilton Speight. Iowa, being Iowa, almost never goes nickel, so there will be some matchup opportunities on Niemman, who's more linebacker than safety.

Meanwhile all non-King back seven players range from "meh" to "bleah" in coverage. Safeties Brandon Snyder and Miles Taylor and second CB Greg Mabin are grading out significantly negative in coverage, so this could be the day Drake Harris gets his bomb. King remains terrific against both run and pass—he's at +18.6—but he can be avoided.

Despite the PFF grades, Iowa ranks as a significantly better pass defense than run D—45th. They're going in the wrong direction, though. The last three weeks have seen

• Purdue put up 458 yards at 7.8 a pop on a whopping 59 attempts,
• Wisconsin average 10.2 yards an attempt, and
• Penn State throw 18 times for 240 yards, a Speightian 13.3 YPA.

As implosions go that is spectacular for a team that had previously been giving up 6.3 YPA. Issues are most severe at LB and safety:

As mentioned above, Jewell has to do a lot to make up for the rest of the linebacker corps. Bower is a liability in coverage, and to make matters worse, he's not a sure tackler. Niemann at least does a good job tackling in space and he's grading out well against the pass, though the only play I saw of him in coverage (BTN, remember) involved him jumping up on bubble action and allowing a wheel route to go for a big gain.

Jake Butt could be in line for a big day.

An excellent pass rush is propping up the back seven; they're 25th per S&P+ and have some big PFF numbers. Much of this comes from DT Jaleel Johnson, who's got 5.5 sacks on the year from a spot where it's difficult to generate much rush. The Nelson twins at DE* aren't far behind with five and four sacks, respectively. Anthony Nelson has a huge PFF grade; Gunnar** not so much. This being Iowa, blitzing is rare and it's mostly up to the DL; Michigan will have a challenge with the two big rushers.

On Michigan's side of the ball, Wilton Speight has taken off and activated all three of his excellent wide receiving targets; if Michigan can protect this game will be familiar to fans of both teams as the same bombing from the past three weeks repeats itself.

*[I didn't check this because I want to believe.]

**[His name might be Matt and Ace might have described him as "Iowa Pat Massey," but it's probably Gunnar.]

KEY MATCHUP: BEN BRADEN versus A VERY LEGIT PASS RUSH DE. This will be a big test for his deployment at left tackle.

Run Defense vs Iowa

Akrum Wadley. heh. wad

Iowa's Iowa so this is all zone, mostly outside. The stunning dichotomy in the Iowa ground game bodes well for Michigan:

• vs NDSU, NW, Wisconsin, PSU: 226 yards, 1.6 YPC
• vs Miami(NTM), ISU, Rutgers, Purdue, Minnesota: 5.8 YPC

Iowa lost the former four and won the latter five. The latter five contains some of the worst teams in the country and Minnesota, which is 14th in S&P+ rush defense. Iowa won that game with a 54-yard Akrum Wadley burst on which they pulled a guard(!) to the shock and consternation of the Minnesota defense. The rest of their carries averaged three yards a pop.

Michigan enters with the #2 run defense in the country and has a defensive line that obliterates anyone who's not elite. Survey says... eh, Iowa's not the worst. Guard Sean Welsh is legitimately good and they have a couple other OL grading out decently against the run. Injuries and shuffling have hurt, and if Keegan Render starts as expected that is going to be a problem. Render is –3.9 on the ground in about half of Iowa's snaps. This OL is about as good as Wisconsin's, which has one really good player, a couple of good-ish ones, and then some holes. TE George Kittle is also a very good blocker, the first Michigan has seen at that spot this year.

Iowa uses two tailbacks; LeShun Daniels will get what you block for him and maybe a yard or two after contact. He's just a guy. Akrum Wadley is explosive, jittery, and a threat in the pass game. He's averaging almost two yards a carry more than Daniels and adds 23 catches to Daniels's 7 on top of that. They split snaps down the middle for reasons that remain obscure to your correspondent; Wadley is far superior.

Daniels will get under two yards a carry as Iowa plods to its doom; it is possible Iowa uses Wadley in unexpected ways—they've been running him on jet sweeps, which isn't exactly unpredictable—and gets to the edge some and he has a day that's unusually productive for Iowa in a game against a team with a pulse. He could bust something and throw all kinds of things out of whack.

That's about all Iowa can hope for; when they run inside the box it's going to be a bloodbath.

KEY MATCHUP: AKRUM WADLEY versus MICHIGAN TACKLING.

Pass Defense vs Iowa

I'll take "college football players who were definitely in Creed" for 1000

Here's an unusual thing: Michigan's playing an experienced quarterback. Other than two quarters and change from Sefo Liufau, no Michigan opponent with a pulse has featured a returning starter. CJ Beathard is back after running off Jake Rudock (tip o' the cap, mate) and he's good. PFF has him +7.5, and he's basically the same guy he was a  year ago when he threw for 7.8 YPA with an excellent TD-INT ratio.

What's changed is the personnel around him. Graduation and injury has thinned his receiving corps considerably, with the season-ending injury to Matt VandeBerg the death blow. In the aftermath 30+ attempt outings against Wisconsin and Minnesota were miserable 4.6 YPA days. The stats were similar against Penn State until garbage time; prior to an 81-yard TD in the fourth quarter Beathard was sitting on just over 100 yards passing.

Beathard's line can't protect (they're 112th in adjusted sack rate); his receivers are miscast slots; Kittle has been gimpy; Greg Davis is the coach. Under these circumstances 7.0 YPA is downright heroic.

He's in for a long day against Michigan. Expect a ton of waggles that are moderately successful, as those will work on Michigan's linebackers and avoid having to pass protect. Expect a bunch of screens and dumpoffs and the like to Wadley, who is a legit threat in the open field. Expect things that are not those things to go very, very badly.

KEY MATCHUP: THIS STUPID WEEK versus I HAVE TO LEAVE NOW TO RECORD A PODCAST, SORRY THIS SECTION WAS SHORT.

Special Teams

Iowa kicker Keith Duncan is 6/7 on the year on mostly short field goals. Punter Ron Coluzzi has a whopping 52 attempts; he's very similar to the Maryland punter in that he kicks it mostly short and unreturnable. Opponents have just five punt returns all year versus 30 fair catches. The tradeoff is that he's only averaging 41 yards a kick, though with the number of pooch punts Ferentz orders that might not be so bad. Coluzzi is also the kickoff guy and is getting touchbacks on 72% of his attempts. Peppers will have to make his impact elsewhere.

Desmond King is Iowa's main returner and is having a solid year, with 20 punt returns averaging 9.2 yards a pop and 18 kick returns for 29 a pop. He is a threat to break one and will probably save Iowa some field position.

As far as Michigan goes, Peppers is Peppers and Michigan's thrown in a punt-blocking proficiency on top of that. Punting has been mediocre, insofar as it exists. Kenny Allen is up to 10/14 after a horrendous start to the season, but only one of the recent makes has been of any length. This should be a slight Iowa advantage unless Peppers does something absurd.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Iowa corrects its mistakes from the Penn State game and breaks a lot of tendencies productively.
• Ferentz does that thing he does where he only makes correct game theory decisions against Michigan.
• OSU fans are right and home field advantage is actually worth 40 points.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Robo-Speight is using his flamethrower attachment.
• Peppers is running wild on the inverted veer.
• Gary Barta signs Kirk Ferentz to an extension that ends when he's 71 years old.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 4 (Baseline 5; +1 for Real Actual Road Game Against All Right Opponent, +1 for Two Top Notch Pass Rushers Will Be A Test, +1 for Real Actual Quarterback Is A New Thing For This D, –1 for I Know Which Side Of The Run Game Dichotomy This Game Will Be On, –1 for Highly Makeshift OL Against This DL, –1 for They Almost Literally Have No Wide Receivers, –1 for They Beat Rutgers 14-7.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for The Football Gods Demand The Ferentz Contract Is Punished, +1 for Some Stakes On This Season Yessir, +1 for Playoff Push Yessir, +1 for The Last Time I Was In Iowa City Was The Sad Panda Denard Game And I Want Revenge, +1 for Seriously The More Games Kirk Loses The Faster Iowa Can Get Him Out.)

Loss will cause me to... startle when Lloyd Carr jumps out of a helicopter, says "that's why I wanted him to succeed me", and slaps me across the face.

Win will cause me to... start a Kickstarter to collect Kirk Ferentz's buyout because I feel terrible for Iowa fans.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

This will be a tougher game than the Penn State results imply and Iowa fans—who are in full you-killed-my-dog mode—expect. Games like PSU are a come-to-Jesus moment and Iowa has enough pride and skill to get off the mat somewhat; all the playcall stuff PSU exposed will be changed. Ferentz is a dinosaur but nobody's dumb enough to keep going with the same calls after that PSU game.

That might keep them in it early. It might not, because Michigan's newly insane offense could score three touchdowns to start the game and then it'll be full-on dirge time. If that happens, yeah, brace for 56-3, Iowa fans.

If the Nelson Twins (probably) are able to get to Speight, get him rattled, and we get a resurgence of the iffy player from midseason, Iowa's got enough defense to make Michigan grind it and go into halftime down 10-3 or something. It is still really difficult to see that not falling apart eventually, because Iowa has no WRs and can't run against good Ds. Eventually, the tide will roll in. Not that tide. But kinda?

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Drake Harris catches a touchdown.
• Speight has another 10 YPA day.
• Michigan, 34-9