Hoops Preview 2016-17: Wrap

Previously: John Beilein media day transcript, Billy Donlon media day quotes, MGoPodcast 8.7, Point Guards, Wings (Part I), Wings (Part II), Bigs

Alex's team previews: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue (last couple still to come)

New uniforms, new defense, same Beilein. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

You're forgiven for not feeling basketball fever this year. The football team is in the midst of a magical season. The hoops squad has followed an outstanding three-year run with KenPom finishes of 74th and 50th the last two years. Tonight's season-opener is against the #275 team in the country, isn't on television, prefaces a huge road game for the football team, and falls during a week in which basketball hasn't been at the forefront of many people's minds.

Yet there is reason to be very excited about this season. Michigan brings back the core of last year's tournament team, one which overcame the loss of their best player to come within a half (and, yes, a subsequent game against a 14-seed) of making the Sweet Sixteen. While the Big Ten has a number of decent teams, it's unclear if any are capable of dominance.

And, of course, the program has undergone its biggest offseason of change since 2010. That summer, John Beilein overhauled his coaching staff after a 15-17 season. In came Lavall Jordan, the point guard whisperer, and Bacari Alexander, who molded Jordan Morgan into an impact big man. This summer, both Jordan and Alexander moved up to head coaching jobs, and Beilein had an opportunity to mold the staff as he saw fit again.

[Hit THE JUMP for the Billy Donlon overhaul, info on tonight's opener, and Alex Cook's projected Big Ten standings and all-conference teams.]

Beilein could've added guys who fit his style and proceeded with the status quo, but he knew better. While Beilein is rigid in certain regards, he knows when it's time to adapt. Michigan made it back to the tournament in 2011 in large part because, with Jordan's help, he embraced the high ball screen as a significant part of his offense. It's been a staple of the system ever since.

This time around the system change is on defense. Michigan's defenses have, on average, ranked 94th in country (KenPom) over the last three seasons. Billy Donlon, inexplicably fired by Wright State after a 22-win season, coached a much less talented team to a 71st-place finish on defense last season, and a down year in 2014-15 was preceded by two straight years in the top 50. Beilein has ceded control of the defense to Donlon, who's installed a "gap" defensive system similar to the pack-line.

The team's success this season may hinge on Beilein's willingness to cede control to Donlon, whose defenses generate a lot more turnovers but also commit a lot more fouls. Very early returns are positive: at media day, Beilein expressed an openness to rethinking his rigid autobench policy. The foul issue may not be as significant as first thought, either; the dreaded hard hedge was nowhere to be found in last week's exhibition game, and it was no coincidence that Michigan's talented but foul-prone big man, Moe Wagner, made it nearly to the midpoint of the second half before picking up his first personal.

The 2010-11 team flourished because Beilein adapted his system to fit his team's strengths and the ever-changing game of college basketball. The 2016-17 team could fit much the same narrative. With Beilein making Donlon his right-hand man and de facto defensive coordinator, they may already be well on their way.

Mini Game Preview: Howard

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: James Daniel, the nation's leading scorer last year, will test Michigan's perimeter defense if he's healthy enough to play. [Photo via Las Vegas Review-Journal]

THE THEM

Michigan eases their way into the season against Howard, a team that finished 330th on KenPom last year and starts this season projected to rank 275th.

They may be without their best player, James Daniel, who took advantage of an astronomical 35.4% usage rate and 37.1% shot rate (5th and 2nd nationally, respectively) to lead the country in scoring last year despite posting shooting splits of 42/33/85 (2P%/3P%/FT%). Daniel is two weeks into recovery from an ankle injury that was supposed to cost him four to six weeks, but as of last Friday he insisted he'll be in uniform:

Daniel avoided serious injuries in his first three years. But he suffered a high ankle sprain during practice two weeks ago. Nickelberry said the injury could keep Daniel out between four and six weeks.

Daniel disagrees.

“I’ll be back for the opener,” he said. “I’ll be ready for Michigan” on Friday.

Howard really needs him; the freshman slated to be his backup is definitely out with a broken foot.

The other player of note is 6'11" senior center Marcel Boyd, a very good rebounder who drew five fouls per 40 minutes last season. At the very least, he should test Moe Wagner's ability to stay out of foul trouble.

For a much more detailed look at tonight's game, Dylan has a full preview over at UMHoops. I'll be there tonight to provide coverage and a recap.

Alex Cook's Big Ten Outlook

Since I'm still transitioning from football mode, Alex Cook was kind enough to help me out with the preview. In addition to the team previews linked at the top of this post, he took a stab at predicting the final Big Ten standings and all-conference teams.

Projected Standings

Tier 1

1. Wisconsin
2. Indiana
3. Purdue

Tier 2

4. Michigan
5. Michigan State
6. Ohio State
7. Illinois
8. Maryland

Tier 3

9. Iowa
10. Northwestern
11. Minnesota
12. Penn State
13. Nebraska

Tier 4

14. Rutgers

Wisconsin’s the consensus favorite to win the league and while they do have great continuity and experience, the other Tier 1 teams might have higher ceilings – especially Indiana. If Michigan State had Gavin Schilling and Ben Carter healthy, they’d definitely be in that tier, but now it seems like there’s plenty of variance in potential outcomes for them. They’re very young.

I’ve talked myself into Michigan being good; we haven’t seen how much experience and continuity can add value in some time. Ohio State will reap the benefits of that as well but Michigan has a better roster. I think Illinois will surprise some people between Malcolm Hill and the players they’re getting back from injury. Maryland and Iowa are sort of in the same boat with each having lost four starters but returning a very good one.

Northwestern looks decent enough to me on paper, but: Northwestern. Penn State has some promising young players and Minnesota is adding good transfers, though frankly I can’t see either making it onto the bubble. I’m not sure how long Tim Miles will last at Nebraska based on how things are trending for them. Rutgers is Rutgers.

Projected All-Conference Teams

First Team

PG Melo Trimble
W Peter Jok
W Malcolm Hill
W OG Anunoby
C Thomas Bryant

Second Team

PG Bryant McIntosh
W Zak Irvin
W Miles Bridges
W Nigel Hayes
C Ethan Happ

For the first team, Melo Trimble and Peter Jok are going to put up big numbers on what might be bubble teams; they’ve been two of the better players in the conference and now they’ll get even bigger opportunities to showcase their skills. Malcolm Hill is the most underrated player in the league, has consistently improved, and should receive more attention on a better Illinois team. OG Anunoby and Thomas Bryant are two players I’m particularly high on as NBA prospects and they could be dominant together.

For the second team, Bryant McIntosh was a tough choice over Derrick Walton as the second-best PG but he seems to have more room for improvement than Walton does. I think Zak Irvin will be Michigan’s best player (unless Moritz Wagner fulfills my wildest hopes for him). Miles Bridges has looked good enough in exhibitions to allay my concerns about efficiency and he’ll be the focal point of State’s offense. Ethan Happ might be better than Nigel Hayes but they both deserve mention here.