Preview: Michigan State 2016

Essentials

Overview

The ironic thing is they had just achieved #respekt. The numbers didn't like MSU as much as you might expect them to like a team that was technically a participant in the playoff. But they'd won so many games over the past seven years that even the purveyors of the numbers were willing to overlook them, and the iffy recruiting, and the alarming number of departures on the defensive line. So too were various analysts, who proclaimed MSU still MSU after beating Mighty Notre Dame.

"Michigan State is the best team in the Big 10"

BOLD prediction from @kevincarterESPN#ChampDrivepic.twitter.com/WmIMgF1bFH

— ESPNU (@ESPNU) September 20, 2016

Bill Connelly's season preview said MSU would outperform their preseason S&P+ ranking of #22. The worst case scenario:

...if last year's happy turnovers luck reverses, maybe the Spartans settle for a 9-4 finish and a New Year's Day bowl.

Life comes at you fast.

Run Offense vs MSU

oblig

No aspect of MSU's team has been as disappointing as this one. The secondary was wonky last year and question marks on the offensive line and at quarterback gave some people pause, but if there was one thing MSU could hang their hat on it was Malik McDowell and friends backed by the vaunted MSU linebacker corps crushing all opposing run games, Narduzzi style. It's no exaggeration to state that the Spartan rise was founded on a brutal run defense and everything else they figured out as they went along.

Through four games this largely held. Michigan State crushed Notre Dame's ground game, held Wisconsin to under three yards a carry, and had a somewhat dodgy but respectable-ish outing against Indiana. Since:

• BYU: 49 rushes, 260 yards, 5.3 YPC
• Northwestern: 51 rushes, 209 yards, 4.1 YPC
• Maryland: 42 rushes, 247 yards, 5.9 YPC.

Not coincidentally, this is when MSU went from meh to ass. Even the pounding at the hands of Wisconsin could be chalked up to a defensive touchdown and, yes, trouble with the snap on a punt. The Badgers didn't manage much offense of their own that wasn't "throw at Demetrious Cox on third down." The last three games have seen MSU beaten by middling opponents by at least two scores, because the run D has deserted them. Why?

MSU couldn't recruit well enough and took a number of bad gambles on kids who washed out of the program. Coupled with expiring eligibility for three of last years starters and MSU's inability to scam a sixth year for Damon Knox, this saw seven guys exit the program. In response MSU imported a couple of grad transfers, one of them a sixth-year kid out of Nebraska.

A DL grad transfer is a huge warning sign. Any DL who can play will play for their team, because DL rotate all the time. If Nebraska thought Kevin Williams could play he would be at Nebraska. Instead he is playing DT at 275 for MSU and racking up a horrendous –15.7 per PFF, most of which has been failures on the ground.

MSU's trying to replace him with anyone they can find, which resulted in three straight snaps against Maryland where converted OL Kyonta Stallworth got put on skates and taken on a tour of the stadium. Williams somehow has as many snaps as McDowell, and help does not appear to be forthcoming.

For his part, McDowell has been in and out of the lineup. He picked up a targeting call against Indiana and has limped out of many games for breathers; when on the field he has a tendency to try to make every play himself, which results in some big lanes when he gets it wrong. MSU robbed Peter to pay Paul last week by moving him to end.

Meanwhile, linebacker John Reschke went out with a significant injury a few weeks ago and Ed Davis has just 47 snaps on the season so MSU has been forced to turn to Andrew Dowell and Chris Frey. Fray's been all right; Dowell average. MLB Riley Bullough is fresh off picking up three personal fouls and a ejection in under a quarter of play against Maryland; with Bullough out MSU tore the redshirt off a random low-rated freshman, who duly played like it.

MSU is still super aggressive on run action and could hold Michigan down for a reasonable period of time if they're getting their calls right and showing some new things. A lack of depth and what projects to be not much time of possession for the MSU offense will see them wear down eventually and start getting gashed. The quarter-by-quarter S&P+ tells quite a tale:

The other way this goes is that Harbaugh's run game confuses the dickens out of the LB level and M blows the DL off the ball and this is a hootenanny from the drop.

KEY MATCHUP: MASON COLE versus MSU DTs. He's scuffled; they've scuffled.

[Hit THE JUMP for OH MAN THIS LINE against MICHIGAN'S DL is a THING I SAY EVERY WEEK NOW]

Pass Offense vs MSU

At least he's in the frame

MSU's major issue here is that they cannot get to the quarterback whatsoever. They are 122nd in adjusted sack rate. They haven't posted a multi-sack game since Wisconsin, and PFF has just one Spartan meaningfully positive as a rusher: McDowell. Rotation DT Raequan Williams and LB Chris Frey are slightly above average; everyone else is a black hole.

Without the ability to get to the passer, MSU is frequently put in situations where opposing QBs  can survey and find the weak spot in the secondary. That weak spot is named Demetrious Cox. Cox sports a –14 coverage grade from PFF and frequently features in little stat blurbs as The Reason Freshman QB Could Do Anything. I'm going to embed this GERG-era coverage from last year's game again because it's representative:

Dude has no chance. He's back at safety now but it doesn't matter since teams just throw their slots at him and get wide open. Alex Hornibrook was 7/8 for most of his yardage when targeting Cox; Northwestern's Austin Carr torched MSU—mostly Cox—for 11 catches and 130 yards. It's slightly unbelievable that he's still playing.

MSU is also scrambling at CB. Darian Hicks and Vayante Copeland are mediocre, with both guys hovering around 0 on PFF. Against Northwestern they started freshman Justin Layne; until a couple weeks ago Layne was a wide receiver. He's grading out well so far and had a pick six early in the NW game. Chances are he's going to be exposed sooner or later since mid-season position switch starters are always a panic move.

A Carr-era Michigan would try to avoid testing the waters here early since all Michigan State victory scenarios involve non-offensive touchdowns, but the combination of Harbaugh and the gentle breeze that is the MSU pass rush should mean a bunch of early play action as Michigan gets after jittery Spartans, which a big day for Jake Butt likely to be in the offing.

The main variables on Michigan's end are new LT Ben Braden, who could get a harsh wakeup call against Malik McDowell, and Wilton Speight. Speight's performances have been somewhat opponent-invariant; he looks to build on a strong outing last week and climb that Rudock mountain.

KEY MATCHUP: WILTON SPEIGHT versus MICHIGAN FANS' POTENTIALLY UNREASONABLE EXPECTATIONS OF MIDSEASON QUARTERBACK IMPROVEMENT.

Run Defense vs MSU

[Eric Upchurch]

This should resemble last year, except slanted more heavily in Michigan's favor. Last year's results once stripped of Cook rushes and a TEAM attempt: 85 yards on 28 carries with a long of 11, that assisted by an egregious hold.

MSU has the same backs and most of the same OL. Michigan has almost the same DL. The differences: MSU is down first round pick Jack Conklin and All-American C Jack Allen; Michigan lost Willie Henry to the draft and replaced its LB level, albeit with an upgrade. MSU has numbers similar to last year, scuffling down at #71 is S&P+'s rush offense numbers. M enters as the #1 S&P+ rush defense by a mile.

The MSU offensive line has been panic in a blender for most of the year, with weekly position switches and guys moving in or out of the lineup. It's tough to get a read for who will actually be on the field. It likely does not matter. Collectively this line is closer to Illinois than Wisconsin, with one or two good players (Brian Allen and, shockingly, Miguel Machado grade out well at PFF) surrounded by holes of varying depth. PFF has just four MSU players as positive run-blockers: Allen, Machado, tight end Josiah Price, and fullback Prescott Line. All except Machado are in the +1 or +2 range—not exactly killers. Everyone else is negative, with the recent replacements racking up big minuses in relatively few snaps. Michigan's defensive line should eat MSU alive.

MSU's main hope is that LJ Scott can conjure something out of nothing. He and Gerald Holmes have been the main backs, with Scott inexplicably slipping almost entirely out of the lineup in the two games prior to Maryland. While MSU's sudden rushing competence says more about the Terrapins (S&P+'s #125 rush defense) than Scott, all you have to do is look at the dude to know he's highly legit. Excise the game against Furman and he's still managing 4.9 YPC, which is an accomplishment given his surrounding cast. Scott's combo of vision, power, and speed will threaten to punish Michigan for errors. Ace clipped his TD against Maryland; it featured only two of those attributes but was still a preview of the kind of thing Scott might break against Michigan if he breaks anything:

Michigan sets the edge with authority so I'm not particularly concerned about an exact repeat. I am concerned that if Michigan does botch something, Scott is a back who will inflict maximum damage.

Holmes is a Langford-style back who can get what's blocked and grind out a little YAC. He's not the threat Scott is.

Things being what they are you can pencil in a healthy diet of jet sweeps and other plays that attempt to avoid the howling mismatch on the defensive interior. Michigan was a bit vulnerable to jets against Wisconsin and will probably give up a couple of chunks; MSU is also certain to run a reverse as they throw the entire playbook at this game.

KEY MATCHUP: LJ SCOTT versus MICHIGAN TACKLING. Scott's the best back Michigan has faced by some distance and will test the linebackers on occasion. On most other occasions he won't get to them, but if MSU feeds him the ball 20 times there will be a hairy moment or three.

Pass Defense vs MSU

Shelton is MSU's most dangerous option

The mystery of Scott's disappearance is slightly less mysterious when you consider his pass-blocking grade, which is a whopping –8 on just 41 protection instances. This is a trend across the offense, which is currently 122nd in adjusted sack rate. LT David Beedle was a turnstile and he's hurt, so Kieler is the new turnstile at LT. Machado grades out decently at PFF but whenever I watch MSU it seems like someone's ripping past him to obliterate the QB; the interior line is also shaky. Their opponent is fourth in adjusted sack rate, and first in defensive havoc.

Whoever the quarterback is—whoever the quarterbacks are—is going to be under siege from the drop. Expect a bunch of waggles and rollouts and the like as MSU tries to do anything they can to avoid the OL/DL matchup. Expect third and long to be a massacre, and expect lots of third and long.

Compounding MSU's protection issues is a receiver corps consisting of RJ Shelton and guys who either aren't good (fifth year senior Monty Madaris and sophomore Felton Davis have catch rates at 50% or under and yards per target under seven) or are true freshmen who aren't good yet (Donnie Corley). Shelton is reasonably dangerous even if one long touchdown was Northwestern re-enacting the Roy Roundtree bomb. Ace:

According to PFF, MSU's highest-graded skill player by some distance is WR/SLOT RJ Shelton, who's both the offense's most reliable chain-mover and their best big-play threat. He's got the speed to take the top off the defense:

Shelton is also quick in tight spaces; MSU has given him six rushes—all jet sweeps, as best I can tell—for 68 yards, and he's their primary target in the wideout screen game.

One dollar says Michigan matches him up with Jourdan Lewis and dares MSU to replicate last year's gameplan with a scattershot QB and 5'11" receiver.

Michigan will probably see all three MSU QBs. A Damion Terry appearance is highly likely to be a shotgun run of some variety. Redshirt freshman. Brian Lewerke will probably start because he can move some and throw some; his sack rate is half that of Tyler O'Connor. The coaching staff has zero faith in either guy not to blow it, so there are a ton of half-field reads and one-read quick hitters in the offense. Expect a ton of chasing to the sideline in this game.

Like the teams before them, MSU's best hope is to find Michigan busting or misplaying a deep ball. It happens, and if it does that's how MSU scores.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN'S SECONDARY versus BALLS THAT HANG IN THE AIR SO LONG THEY MIGHT BE IN ORBIT.

Special Teams

Aside from a crippling kickoff touchdown ceded just after MSU had pulled within a score of Northwestern it's been nothing to see here for both return and coverage units. MSU occasionally returns a punt for a moderate number of yards and occasionally allows a punt return for a moderate number of yards. They've done nothing but get close to or slightly beyond the 25 on kick returns.

Kickoff guy Kevin Cronin is a problem, as he's put just a third of his attempts in the endzone and has booted five out of bounds. Punter Jake Hartbarger isn't a bomber but has been reasonably successful. He averages 41 yards a kick, has just one touchback against 12 punts inside the 20, and has only seen seven of his 32 punts returned.

Kicker Michael Geiger continues to be blah. He's 5/8 on the year and about average in most metrics that take distance into account; last year he was 12/19 and 103rd nationally. He could miss anything longer than a chip shot without surprising anyone.

Michigan continues to ride high in special teams metrics that account for the hugeness of Michigan's good plays and struggle in S&P+; they blocked their fourth punt last week and always have Peppers lurking back there. Kenny Allen is the main issue. He's up to 6/10 on the year after making a couple of chip shots against Illinois but still ranks deep into the triple digits since all of his attempts have been short.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Weird MSU juju crap is still going on.
• Last week's Speight was a mirage and it's back to the scuffle.
• Michigan punts.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• MSU commits several personal foul penalties on the opening kickoff.
• Michigan's OL is grinding non-McDowells off the ball.
• Lewerke gets confused and ends up handing it to the other running back in the wrong uniform.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 2 (Baseline 5; –1 for You Lost To Who?, –1 for And Also Who?, +1 for Various Rivalry Businesses, –1 for The Spread Is At Four Scores And Can't Stop Rising, –1 for Nothing About MSU's Season Has Been A Fluke, –1 for And Nothing About Michigan's Has, Either, +1 for People Will Get Mad At Me If This Is A One.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for Some Stakes On This Season, Yessir, +1 for Let's Not Lose To A Team That's About As Good As EMU, +1 for Various Rivalry Business, +1 for Maybe After Michigan Wins MSU Fans Will Expand Their Conversational Repertoire Beyond Having Trouble With The Snap, Which Has Been A Problem At Solemn Occasions Across The State For Going On A Year Now, +1 for Let's Send Those Juggalos Back To The Faygo Mines)

Loss will cause me to... repent.

Win will cause me to... reference last year's game column in this year's game column, that's for damn sure.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Will you get mad at me if this is just "Michigan wins" like it would be for any other game with a four-score spread? Probably? Fine.

Michigan State can't move the ball on the ground against anyone even vaguely competent. They acquired under three yards a carry against Wisconsin, BYU, and Northwestern. Michigan's defense is better than all of those teams and way better than all of them save Wisconsin. Meanwhile MSU will be relying on a redshirt freshman QB with a 53% completion percentage who they're terrified of. MSU won't move the ball, at all, except on the odd downfield armpunt and whatever goofy tricks Dantonio dumps out.

The other side of the ball is in more doubt because of Speight. If we get last week's Speight—and MSU's pass rush issues should help in that department—Michigan will set Spartan Stadium on fire and salt the earth. If we get wonky Speight, MSU got a shot at keeping it close until their super-thin defense tires in the fourth quarter and Michigan eases out to a multiple-score lead.

Michigan has to be –3 in turnovers to lose this game.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Negative rushing yards for MSU.
• We get Good Speight.
• Michigan, 37-0.