About Last Week:

The Road Ahead:

Michigan State (2-5, 0-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Maryland, 28-17

Recap: As Friend of the Blog Jamie Mac pointed out on the podcast this week, it is hard to decide which part of this game was the most amazing.

• It could be the attempted fake field goal from the 30 with no time left on the clock at the end of the first half, which would have required Michael Geiger to outrun the entire Maryland defense by himself (and to the boundary side of the field, no less). He gained four yards.
• It could be the fact that Riley Bullough picked up three personal fouls in the first 11 plays, and was booted for targeting with 49 minutes left in the game for lighting up a receiver in the face.
• It could have been the Worst Waldo touchdown where DJ Moore was a full ten yards behind two Spartan defensive backs.
• It could have been the fact that Perry Hills went 21-27 for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns while being Perry Hills. 

There is no wrong answer to this question.

This team is as frightening as: A team that is nestled comfortably between Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan in S&P+. Fear Level = why does this thing not go below 7

Michigan should worry about: Michigan State finally got the running game going on Saturday, with both LJ Scott and Gerald Holmes running hard and churning out significant yards after contact.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan State has lost five in a row, which, based on my research, is a lot.

When they play Michigan: choo choo

This week: vs. Michigan, noon, ESPN (Michigan -23.5 and rising)

[AFTER THE JUMP: the list of teams Michigan has yet to defeat is getting shorter by the week, whereas the list of defeated teams grows]

Maryland (5-2, 2-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Michigan State, 28-17

Recap: If you’d asked Maryland before the season what a win over Michigan State would mean to their season, and they probably would have used terms like “statement win” or "program on the rise." But the way things have gone over the first two months of the season, I’m honestly not sure this is a better win than their road win at UCF.

Maryland is 5-2, and with games against Indiana and Rutgers still on the schedule, they have a very good shot at making a bowl game in DJ Durkin’s first season. The bad news is that the also have games against Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska, which do not look particularly promising. They also lost Will Likely for the year to a torn ACL, and they may have lost starting safety Darnell Savage to what appeared to be a serious knee injury.

This team is as frightening as: A team that is 2.5 games ahead of Michigan State in the Big Ten East (and owns the tiebreaker because LOL head-to-head)  Fear Level = 4.

Michigan should worry about: Yes we’re wasting the Maryland preview to take shots at Michigan State, which probably means they aren’t a terribly serious threat.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This team struggled with Michigan State at home. That’s a red flag.

When they play Michigan: You’re running out of opportunities to see Jabrill Peppers and Jourdan Lewis and Ryan Glasgow and Taco Charlton. I know it’s just Maryland, but… I dunno, just enjoy this.

This week: at Indiana, 3:30 p.m., ESPNU (Indiana -5)

Iowa (5-3, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Wisconsin, 17-9

Recap: Iowa lost to Wisconsin by one score. Or, if you’re Kirk Ferentz, they lost by two scores.

Down by 8 points with a little over five minutes left in the game, Iowa faced a 4th and 5 from about the Wisconsin 20-yard line. They had gained about 220 total yards to that point in the game. And they kicked a field goal. Iowa hadn’t scored a touchdown all game. After the game, Ferentz responded that he did so because eight points means you need two scores.

QUESTION. This will sound like second-guessing. It’s 14-6, you go for the field goal. You’re still going to need a touchdown. What was the thought process there?

FERENTZ: You have to score twice. It gets down to that. Somehow, some way you’re going to have to score twice. If there’s a little bit less, fourth-and-two, something like that, we probably would have gone for the touchdown.

QUESTION: 14-6, if you get the touchdown and the two-point conversion, you have a tied ballgame.

FERENTZ: The situation we were in, we felt that was the best play. Fourth-and-five against these guys is not easy, especially down there in the red zone. We didn’t see that as a high-probability play. We’re going to have to get back there again. Kind of the thinking there.

I recommend you read Go Iowa Awesome’s article on the subject, in which they call for the Madden Kid Coach for whom Brian has been advocating for years. I mean, if you think five yards is too many to gain against a defense, maybe don’t put yourself in a position where you will need a full drive worth of five yard gains?

This team is as frightening as:

This is feeling more accurate every week. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Iowa at least hung with Wisconsin, so they aren’t entirely butt (NTB).

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Post-extension Kirk Ferentz is 4-3 with losses to NDSU, Northwestern, and Wisconsin, and seven point wins over Rutgers and Minnesota.

Post Extension Kirk Ferentz Uber Alles.

When they play Michigan: Ferentz will try to convert a 4th and 5 when the situation calls for it, because his contract extension allows him to do math exactly once per season, and he’ll spend it on the Michigan game.

This week: Bye

Indiana (3-4, 1-3 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Northwestern, 24-14

Recap: It’s getting harder and harder to see the chaos. I keep staring and staring, but I got nothing. I’m starting to think this isn’t a Magic Eye poster at all, and that no matter how I cross my eyes and stare through the picture, I’m not going to see the 3-D spaceship. Other than the five point loss to Nebraska, they haven’t been chaos-y at all. Even the win over Michigan State now looks like a run-of-the-mill three-point home win over a 2-5 team.

Indiana fell behind 21-3 one play into the second quarter, and never really made a serious run at challenging Northwestern’s lead. There was no thrashing. There was no raging against the dying of the light. There was just a mundane, statistically even-matched defeat. This was not worthy of a Kevin Wilson defeat. None of this is worthy of a Kevin Wilson defeat. We demand fireworks… but the kind of poorly-conceived homemade fireworks that involve a good chance of accidentally lighting a shed on fire.

This team is as frightening as: It pains me to say it… but they’re just a Fear Level = 4. Unless…

Michigan should worry about: Oh god what if they are saving up the #CHAOS, the same way Kirk Ferentz is saving up Knowing Math. An entire season of #CHAOS unleashed at once. This would be the football equivalent of crossing the streams in an effort to take down the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man of the Big Ten.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I know Harold Ramis. And you, Richard Lagow, are no Harold Ramis.

When they play Michigan: When someone asks you if you are a God, you say “no but I know Don Brown” and they’ll be like, “oh, okay.”

This week: vs. Maryland, 3:30 p.m., ESPNU (Indiana -5)

Ohio State (6-1, 3-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Penn State, 24-21

Recap: Well THAT was unexpected.

It feels like Ohio State’s offense has three problems right now. They’re struggling in pass protection, their receivers are struggling to get separation, and they can’t decide how to balance the load, especially between Curtis Samuel and Mike Weber. The third rings of similar problems in Ohio State’s past (Zeke Elliott against Michigan State, for example), and is the result of having a lot of skilled players and only one football.

The two former issues, however, are new to Buckeye country. Barrett’s mobility has allowed him to handle pressure, but against both Wisconsin and Penn State he was under regular assault. And while Noah Brown has made some fantastic catches this year, they have largely been fantastic because they have been heavily contested. Ohio State’s offense is used to getting guys wide open, and to receivers who can beat a defense over the top with regularity. They aren’t getting that this year, and JT Barrett is not the kind of deadly accurate downfield passer who can regularly hit tight windows.

Defensively, Ohio State remains very, very good, but they aren’t invincible. Against Wisconsin, they gave up regular yardage on the ground, and against Penn State they gave up chunk plays in the air. There isn’t anything glaring that a Michigan fan can point to and feel confident that it represents a fatal flaw. But in this blogger’s humble opinion, Michigan can score points on this team.

This team is as frightening as: Oh this is still gonna be a mutual murderdeathkill. Fear Level = 9, and only because we’re pacing ourselves.

Michigan should worry about: They’ve beaten Michigan 11 of 12 and they remain quite good and it’s in Columbus and…

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Against common opponents, Michigan’s point margin is 62 points better than Ohio State’s.

When they play Michigan: Michigan will not win by 62.

This week: vs. Northwestern, 3:30 p.m., ESPN (OSU -25.5)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Hawaii (4-4, 3-1 MWC)

Last week: Beat Air Force, 34-27 (2 OT)

Recap: Dru Brown threw for 312 yards at 8.4 YPA and 3 TDs, and Hawaii won despite being outrushed by more than 300 yards (389-75), and despite the fact that Air Force had a 32-yard field goal at the end of regulation to win the game. This is the stuff that happens when you play Air Force. Don’t play Air Force. Even if they’re in your conference. If they are in your conference, expand your conference and put them in the other division so you don’t have to play them as often.

Hawaii needs two wins for bowl eligibility, likely from the three games against New Mexico, Fresno State and UMass.

This week: vs. New Mexico, midnight, go the f*ck to sleep.

UCF (4-3, 2-1 AAC)

Last week: Won at UConn, 24-16

Recap: You hear “they’re not our rivals” pretty often in college sports, and it is usually a “the shirtless bro doth protest too much” situation. Texas and Texas A&M say that about each other. Some Michigan fans occasionally say that about Michigan State, though that has died down for obvious reasons in the last few years. It’s usually dumb.

Usually.

But oh, man, UCF pulled off the best “not our rivals” in recent memory by declaring, “no, seriously. We don’t know these guys.”

Terrible shot from press box but there on end of bench at 40 yd line, that's Civil ConFLiCT trophy 10 min after game... pic.twitter.com/qd7tZbNHKE

— Mike Anthony (@ManthonyCourant) October 23, 2016

They left the damn trophy on the field.

If you aren’t familiar with the “rivalry” between UConn and UCF, you’re not alone. UCF isn’t familiar with it either. But what happened was that when Bob Diaco got to UConn, he recognized that UConn, being a basketball school with a terrible football team, needed something to drive interest. He decided that UConn needed a rival… so he picked one. And the team he picked was 1,200 miles from Storrs, and had played UConn for the first time EVER in 2013. They made a trophy and everything. He even gave it a name: the Civil ConFLiCT (get it? FL? CT?) And when the media pointed out that, like, this isn’t how any of this works, Diaco said:

“They don’t get to say whether they’re our rival or not,” Diaco told reporters during a Monday conference call. “We might not be their rival, but they don’t get to say whether they’re our rival. That’s for us to decide.”

Apparently not, Bob.

This week: at Houston, noon, ESPNU (Fightin’ Hermans -9.5)

Colorado (6-2, 4-1 Pac-12)

Last week: Won at Stanford, 10-5

Recap: Stanford plays unpleasant football. Nothing about Stanford is enjoyable. Even Christian McCaffrey has been mediocre (largely due to injury and the regression of the team around him). And not even an objectively fun team like Colorado can escape their black hole of a football personality. They won the game, but… yeesh.

If you want to visualize how this game was so close, picture the Michigan/Wisconsin game. Colorado outgained Stanford 359-263, and won the turnover battle 4-0, but Colorado missed field goals of 42, 31 (!), and 28(!!!) yards to keep the Tree People within striking distance.

And as we all expected, the quest remains alive:

Still. Happening.

This week: Bye

Penn State (5-2, 3-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Ohio State, 24-21

Recap: I came here to write the obligatory “they had no business winning this game” bit. After all, Ohio State had more yards, more yards per play, more passing yards, more rushing yards, more first downs, and fewer turnovers. But oce you remove the three shotgun kneeldowns at the end of the game and the 31 yards lost on a snap over the punter’s head that resulted in a safety, Penn State actually outgained Ohio State per play, 5.70 to 4.98. They only completed 8 passes, but those were for nearly 20 yards per catch. They didn’t play a terribly sustainable game, but when you are the significant underdog (and almost certainly the inferior team), you play high-variance and see what happens.

If nothing else, this should make you feel better about the fact that Michigan held Penn State’s receivers and tight ends to 10 catches for 41 yards despite being up a billion most of the game.

It’s hard to see a scenario where Penn State is still in the hunt for the East title, as pretty much any scenario requires Michigan to lose twice, but this is looking like a much better year than was on the table a month ago.

This week: at Purdue, noon, ABC/ESPN2 (Penn State -11.5)

Wisconsin (5-2, 2-2 B1G)

Last week: Won at Iowa, 17-9

Recap: Wisconsin has one hurdle between themselves and the Big Ten Title Game, and it’s Nebraska. They play the Huskers this weekend, and because the Huskers are 4-0 in conference play, Wisconsin needs them to drop one additional game. Nebraska still plays at Ohio State and at Iowa, though, and Wisconsin closes with Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota. So there’s a good chance that a Wisconsin win on Saturday will be enough to get them to Indianapolis or Chicago or Washington DC or Aruba or wherever the hell the #footprint leads them this year.

It’s also worth noting that no team has held Wisconsin within 158 total yards or 1.64 yards per play of the totals to which Michigan held them.

This week: vs. Nebraska, 7:00 p.m., ESPN (Wisconsin -9)

Rutgers (2-6, 0-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Minnesota, 34-32

Recap: Oh, man… they ALMOST had it. They had a lead with 10 seconds left, but Minnesota booted a field goal to avoid what would have been an amazing and deeply hilarious upset. Alas, we cannot have nice things, because doing so would require Rutgers to have nice things, which is a priori impossible.

This week: Bye