The audio was screwed up in my copy of the video, so here's this.
In the last couple days, I've gone over film of MSU's offense against Maryland and BYU, and boy, it's been a fun week. I ended up doing full charting of the BYU game, which featured an oddly timed and ill-fated quarterback switch from Tyler O'Connor to Damion Terry, and Hennecharted the Maryland game, which featured a third quarterback, Brian Lewerke.
Yes, State has a quarterback problem. That is far from the only problem.
Personnel. Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
The starting QB is a guess. It wouldn't be surprising to see O'Connor either start over Lewerke or replace him partway through. We didn't want to use a precious bench spot on a QB because MSU frequently deploys RB Gerald Holmes, TE Jamal Lyles, and FB Prescott Line, and they still rotate a fair amount on the O-line. A knee injury to guard David Beedle, who has the OL's fourth-most snaps despite not starting the last three games (and missing Maryland), has opened up playing time for true freshman Thiyo Lukusa, who got quite a bit of run against Maryland.
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Pro-style, for whatever that means anymore. State tends to go I-form and run-heavy on early downs, then go into the gun for passing downs.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? A mix. They run a fair amount of inside zone, and also feature quite a bit of power.
Hurry it up or grind it out? Grind. MSU is 106th in adjusted pace.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): That all depends on the quarterback, of course. Terry, the worst pure passer, is the most dangerous runner, even though the numbers don't reflect it. Lewerke showed some decent wheels against Maryland; he's capable enough to run the occasional read or speed option, though breaking free requires at least one defender to overplay the running back. O'Connor is the least likely to be used in the run game; he does have enough speed to break contain and pick up some yardage, but he's not a threat in the open field.
Terry gets an 8, Lewerke a 6, O'Connor a 5.
Dangerman: According to PFF, MSU's highest-graded skill player by some distance is WR/SLOT RJ Shelton, who's both the offense's most reliable chain-mover and their best big-play threat. He's got the speed to take the top off the defense:
Shelton is also quick in tight spaces; MSU has given him six rushes—all jet sweeps, as best I can tell—for 68 yards, and he's their primary target in the wideout screen game.
While neither is grading out well on PFF, I'm a fan of both LJ Scott and Gerald Holmes, MSU's one-two punch at running back. Scott had scuffled for much of the year before a breakout game against Maryland with 128 yards on 20 carries; the highlight was him pressing the hole, then popping outside on a power and showing breakaway speed when the safety took a horrid angle:
His blitz pickups are a significant issue—he's grading out at -8.0(!) in pass protection—but as a runner, he's got an NFL back's combination of size, speed, agility, and power.
Holmes isn't quite as big or explosive, but he's more reliable picking up blitzes (albeit still negative as a pass blocker per PFF), and he's got surprising agility for a 222-pound power back. His main asset is that power:
That said, he'll also make players miss. MSU's backs are both adept at making the first tackler miss, either via juke or truck, and that's a necessary skill behind this O-line.
Zook Factor: There wasn't anything glaringly bad in the punt category, but Mark Dantonio's handling of the quarterback situation is worth mentioning here. O'Connor hasn't been good by any stretch, but he was far from the primary issue with the offense against BYU, and yet Dantonio pulled him for Terry—who almost immediately threw a pick—in a ten-point game. As you'll see in the next section, O'Connor had been grading out well, and the previous couple drives had ended because of poor blocking more than anything else. It felt like a panic move, and it played out that way.
HenneChart: lol, I need to add two rows.
| Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR | SCR | DSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O'Connor (BYU) | 1 | 6 (2) | 1 | -- | -- | 2 | -- | 2 | -- | 78% |
| Terry (BYU) | -- | 3 (3) | 1 | 1 | 1* | 1 | -- | -- | 1 | 57% |
| Lewerke (MD) | 2 | 7* (2) | 2 | 7* (1) | 2 | 2 | -- | 3 | 2 | 46% |
This is going to require a lot of explanation. O'Connor's grade looks good for the BYU game, but by that point the coaches were calling plays with the clear intention of making reads as easy as possible. With both O'Connor and Lewerke, MSU has called a lot of waggles that get them away from pressure (in theory, anyway), cuts the field in half, and lets them make one or two simple reads—if nobody's open, they can take off for a few yards or easily chuck the ball away to the sideline.
So, O'Connor was efficient against BYU, but he wasn't productive; he went 7-for-11 for 58 yards and took two sacks. Factor in the lost yardage on sacks and O'Connor averaged 3.5 yards per dropback. MSU has to play it safe with him. He's 8-for-30 on throws that travel more than 20 yards in the air. O'Connor is decent when he has simple, short throws to make—he's pretty accurate out to about 20 yards—but he still locks onto receivers and it gets hairy when he has to go downfield.
Lewerke is a different player. He's got a decent arm and can throw pretty well on the move, so he also gets a lot of waggle playcalls. He flat-out misses more throws than O'Connor, though. His pick against Maryland was a badly underthrown deep ball to Donnie Corley, who had a step on the defensive back:
He also missed a bunch of shorter throws, including a screen that had all the makings of a long touchdown:
Without much pressure on him, Lewerke put that ball in the turf. He had a second potential interception dropped by a Maryland defensive back who looked like he was fielding a punt. Lewerke finished 11-for-24 for 156 yards (6.5 YPA) against a Terrapins secondary that was already missing CB Will Likely and lost starting safety Darnell Savage on the first possession.
Terry has faded from the competition; he doesn't look viable as anything but a change-of-pace running QB.
If I had to pick an MSU QB to win a game this week, it'd be O'Connor, who at least can unleash the occasional bomb—five of his eight completions on throws of 20+ yards have gone for TDs. I can understand sticking with Lewerke to build for the future, but there are going to be some bumps along the way.
OVERVIEW
MSU went pass-heavy late against BYU, so the numbers are a little skewed:
| Formations | Run | Pass | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gun | 12 | 18 | 2 |
| I-Form | 9 | -- | 3 |
| Ace | 3 | 1 | -- |
| Pistol | -- | -- | -- |
| Heavy | 2 | -- | -- |
They were pretty balanced out of the gun until going into comeback mode. Meanwhile, anything that wasn't from the gun tipped run, and play-actions were all of the waggle variety. Expect Don Brown to dial up a lot of blitzes that bring heat from the backside, especially since M should comfortably win this OL/DL battle—they can afford to spend a player discouraging play-action and let the rest deal with the run.
The down distribution was relatively balanced in the BYU game. It skewed far more run-run-pass(-punt) with Lewerke against Maryland.
| Down | Run | Pass | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | 7 | 3 |
| 2nd | 11 | 4 | 1 |
| 3rd | 6 | 8 | 1 |
I'm having a hard time finding a way that State can consistently move the ball against Michigan. It starts up front: G/C Brian Allen is decent, and the rest of the line ranges from mediocre to bad. G David Beedle got pancaked for a sack and blown back twice in the run game to ruin otherwise well-blocked powers on third-and-short situations against Maryland. He's graded out at -14.6 on 336 snaps this year, and his injury would be a blessing in disguise if not for the fact that Thiyo Lukusa (-4.1 on 91 snaps) grades out slightly worse on a per-snap basis.
G Tyler Higby looked like he could be pushed around; he took an obvious hold against BYU after getting blown two yards back at the point of attack on an outside run. RT-turned-C-turned-LT Kodi Kieler is grading out at -9.9 on the year with most of the negative coming in pass protection; he's a step slow on the edge, and to me he doesn't look entirely healthy. RT Miguel Machado held his own; C Benny McGowan had a tough time getting push in the run. It's hard to see this group faring well against M's front seven.
That leaves the backs having to fend for themselves often. I thought Holmes made the most of what he had against BYU; that was good for 57 yards on 15 carries. Holmes and Scott are both dangerous runners, but it's hard to get a lot going when your own blockers are getting thrown into the backfield:
one of the aforementioned Beedle-ruining-a-third-and-short-power plays
While their interior pass-blocking looks decent (at least when Beedle's out), they give up a fair amount of pressure off the edge, and my (rather safe) bet is M's DTs will put more heat on the quarterback than BYU's or Maryland's.
The receiving corps drops off considerably after Shelton, Corley, and tight end Josiah Price. Shelton's been covered. Corley adds another deep threat and a bigger body to throw to underneath, but he's only catching 50% of his targets. That's in part because he looks like a true freshman out there; here he's responsible for a comical illegal shift penalty, then just wanders up the seam because he clearly has no idea what he's supposed to do:
No, you didn't forget the rules: having two players in motion at the snap is illegal. Corley had another freshman moment when he stepped out while running a deep fly—he nearly came up with the catch on a pretty great throw from O'Connor, but took himself too far to the sideline. He's got a ton of physical ability; the mental side is still coming along. The other outside receiver, Monty Madaris, dropped a couple catchable throws against BYU, and he has a hard time shaking loose from good coverage—his success rate on targets is only 41% this year, and I don't see him getting free against M's corners.
Josiah Price has been a reliable, probably underutilized receiver this year—he had two catches against BYU and none against Maryland. He's a decent, not great, blocker, and he catches most everything thrown his way, which is mostly intermediate chain-moving stuff. Jamal Lyles is more of a big-play threat as the second TE, but he's frustratingly inconsistent, especially as a blocker—he'd be a star if he could be trusted out there in the run game, but that's not the case.
In sum, MSU is going to have a very difficult time opening holes in the run game, protecting the quarterback, and consistently moving the ball through the air. I think their best hope in this game is to try a bunch of bombs to Shelton and Corley, which is far from a sustainable offense, especially against this Michigan secondary. They'll get a big play or three out of Shelton/Corley/Scott/Holmes, but putting up more than a handful of points is going to be a tall task.