Upon Further Review 2016: Defense vs Wisconsin

SPONSOR NOTES: Also at the Marlin tailgate I met a guy who had refinanced with Matt and was now hanging out with him pregame, because they're buds. I didn't judge. Maybe I judged a little.

In addition to being a gentleman replete with Michigan tickets, Matt is also a good man to know if you need a mortgage. It's striking that we actually get non-astroturfed comments about positive experiences with Matt not infrequently.

If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

FORMATION NOTES: Michigan spent a lot of time in this formation:

Line is shifted to the TE so that's an over set. Peppers is overhanging the TE. Two deep safeties, press coverage.

They'd also put Peppers inside the end. I called that "4-3 bear".

PERSONNEL NOTES: Wisconsin's manball and constant three and outs caused some shifts in the DL snap distribution. Charlton played every snap—although there were just 53. Wormley and Glasgow were close behind with around 40; Godin and Hurst just about split the other DT spot. Gary (13 snaps), Mone (7), and Winovich(2) rounded out the rotation. Mone's just getting back, obviously; the other two are either freshmen getting their first taste of manball in a game situation or much lighter than alternatives.

The back seven starters never came off the field except for a few dime packages without McCray. Watson(7 snaps) and Kinnel(3) got a little bit of PT on passing downs as extra DBs.

[After THE JUMP: this QB got shook]

/tents fingers

Indeed. Here is an emblematic clip:

Taco Charlton smokes his guy with a spin move and runs up the gut only to find that Chris Wormley has beat him to the quarterback. Quarterback hurls up a downfield punt that's surprisingly accurate given the situation, only to find that Channing Stribling is now playing WR and the WR is just trying to make sure it's incomplete.

Wisconsin's drives were Rutgers-esque in their monotony:

• Six three-and-outs.
• Three four-and-outs.
• Three interceptions, one of which came after UW got a first down.
• One nine-play, 37-yard drive ending in a punt.
• One five-play, 31 yard TD drive after the Speight interception.

That's as dominant as it gets against an opponent with a pulse.

Wisconsin did miss a few opportunities. Peavy could have caught a deep shot against Lewis; Hornibrook missed a wide open receiver when Stribling fell down; their last-ditch drive featured two unforced drops. On the other hand, 39 of Wisconsin's 159 yards came on two plays that featured must-call penalties go uncalled. (One was a hold on McCray just before he attempted to get to the back, the second the flagrant OPI on Stribling.)

As you might imagine, then, the

Chart-nan the Barbarian

is impressive:

[NOTE: PFF grading works out differently than mine. In UFR zero is bad for DL; it's average in PFF. Their scale seems to be about a third or a half of mine. PFF has a "penalty" section that I've elected to omit for space's sake, which is why the individual components might not add up to the "overall." number. I'll note when it's a big discrepancy.]

Another all-out whooping by the defensive line, though we should note that Wisconsin was occasionally able to protect their quarterback. Last week the pressure metric was an absurd +32. This week it's back to very good, as Wisconsin has some blockers and left guys in to help out, insofar as that was possible.

Why couldn't we get any TFLs? I like TFLs. I like to look at them stacked up like cordwood, or like frozen humans on a trip to a far-away

please say star please say star

Culver's.

What?

What what.TFLs. STAY FOCUSED.

Wisconsin's plan was to double Michigan and double them some more. You can't get much on plays where you dedicate two players to one interior OL and he doesn't really go anywhere. Glasgow did not.

Some teams are going to hop off those blocks anyway because you might find a way through the line despite not really dealing with the DL. Wisconsin stuck with them and the end result was a lot of free guys at the linebacker level. Wisconsin was willing to get 1 or 2 yards on a ton of plays in order to avoid Glasgow, Wormley, and friends lancing through the LOS and setting them up in long yardage.

This turned out to be a bad bet.

Do I recall last year that Glasgow wasn't great against straight-up doubles like this?

He wasn't awesome, but he was usually able to hold the guys up and get a push in my grading. In this game he was just killing it. I had to look at this one a few times before I figured out that the guy who seems to spring out of a trapdoor in the grass and tackle was Glasgow going into ultimate burrow mode:

Meanwhile when not doubled, Glasgow was doing that thing where he gets the OL leaning the wrong way with a bait step and the bats the dude away:

Come for the sack, stay to watch the OL Glasgow dismissed reprise this famous gif in the aftermath:

[ed note: be verrrry careful how you search for this gif.]

This was not an isolated incident. Ryan Glasgow is out here taking names.

And how about the surrounding pieces? Anyone coming through?

Along with the linebackers, Godin has been the surprise of the season so far. He's keeping his nose just in front of a rampant Maurice Hurst. To do that you've got to be turning in plays, and Godin certainly has. We talked in the pregame about Wisconsin's problem at center, so slight degree of difficulty disclaimers apply, but I had to squint a few times to make sure that the dude laying waste to Wisconsin's ground game was in fact Godin and not Glasgow. (They are both white guys and their numbers are 96 and 99. All players of similar race and stature should have vastly different numbers.) This rip down looks pretty familiar:

On the next play UW tries to get a counter iso going and again Godin puts his guy in the backfield to pick off the fullback and force the RB into an unblocked Gedeon:

These were the first two plays of the game.

Godin didn't have a ton of opportunity to follow up since Hurst got half of the scanty snaps the D had to deal with but he's gone from a guy you can live with to yet another interior playmaker. If you'll recall, the season preview wondered how Godin was going to get any snaps. By turning into Glasgow's Mini-Me, it turns out. He had more trouble with doubles in this game than Glasgow but was otherwise reasonably close to his performance, and he even burst through one for a tackle at the line of scrimmage:

Last year's Godin is very unlikely to do that.

As a reminder, this is the dude that Godin is (kind of) keeping out of the starting lineup:

Hurst had a couple of those, because he is an elite interior pass rusher. I still think Hurst is going to be relied on more heavily when the heavy(ish) hitters roll onto the field because Godin can't match that. Still, for Michigan to pick up a ninth DL who can play is a thing.

We haven't talked about Wormley much this year but here he had an opportunity to go up against a decent to good tight end. Result: same as it ever was.

FWIW, Winovich got around the corner and just about hit the QB on a throw on one of his two snaps.

While they didn't convert much it did seem like Wisconsin had a number of open guys over the middle. Am I crazy?

I did think the linebackers had some coverage issues. Since Michigan is playing a lot of outside leverage with their cornerbacks, in-breaking routes tend to give them trouble. I assume that the idea is that linebackers will patrol this space, and they did not. (You may recall similar issues versus Colorado.) Sucking up on play action is one thing, but this from Gedeon was a bit odd:

Man to man look but he's a free player; he chases after a drag route underneath and the throw goes directly into the area of the field he vacated. With Stribling playing outside technique and a ways off, I'm guessing that he's more concerned with the area outside the hashes because he expects someone to be in the area if the WR runs this route.

We got a better look at what's probably the same coverage on the second Stribling interception:

Stribling is absolutely in a deep third and just following because he's got nobody else in his zone; it again looks like Gedeon is supposed to be back here, dissuading a throw. Again he's focused on a short dumpoff.

Some of those hits over the middle defy easy explanation, though. Wisconsin got a big gain over the middle on their first third down of the game. McCray clearly has man coverage on the running back and Michigan is in man free. Stribling plays this outside technique that they do a ton of and just gets run away from on the in-breaking route. This looks very difficult for the CB, and the throw is easy since it's right in the middle of the field:

Usually teams play inside leverage in these situations to encourage fly routes down the sideline, which are much tougher to complete. Michigan's clearly running this outside leverage stuff as man coverage, not the three deep it resembles; it's possible they're just willing to make that tradeoff. The outside leverage lets you look back at the QB, and Michigan has dominated all the deep routes they've faced this year. Also not happening: back shoulder throws. Michigan hasn't seen one attempted, I don't think, because in this technique that's asking to be intercepted.

That technique also lets your guys fall off their receivers if they read run. Lewis did so on his late, fractional TFL:

Early on it seemed like Taco Charlton was abandoning his force responsibility by spinning inside a befuddled OT, but Lewis reads the crackback block of the WR, falls off of him, and is set to clean up on the edge should the need arise:

This pass technique is also run defense. This will be very helpful against Ohio State as long as Barrett's not finding guys wide open in the middle of the field.

So: yes, coverage issues from the linebackers do cause me some consternation. They were otherwise good at getting to their spots and had an okay day.

How did Peppers do in his first outing as a linebacker against a manball team?

He was mostly not relevant to the manballing. They did not have much opportunity to block him because they couldn't get off doubles; Peppers didn't have much opportunity to strike because the DL was hacking guys down at the LOS. He did get the dickens blocked out of him on the two jet sweeps UW ran:

Putting him head up on a tight end/fullback is asking for that. It's not really his fault, and when he's that close to the guy he can't execute his trademark wrong-side burst. Then he is on skates because he's 50-60 pounds lighter than the opposition.

I was a bit less sanguine about this one:

He dives under those blocks all the time and they work out. Not so much on that one. It's a bit different when you're attacking 100% horizontally and need to funnel to help. Peppers can't take that block on but he can hop around the other side of that relatively effectively, and then Gedeon—who he almost knocks over—gets cut off.

He did have one nice play where he sliced through space he's not supposed to and cut off the back:

I don't think it's disputable that a game like this is not currently part of Peppers's wheelhouse. He'll have to get better at it for upcoming games against... uh... nevermind.

Seriously, though, Peppers was bleah and this is a cost of having him be a linebacker. It's one Michigan is happy to make.

Is Stribling going to have a decade-long NFL career like Harbaugh suggests?

Injuries permitting, maybe? He's been tested a lot this year and has been very difficult to escape from. He had two interceptions in this game, narrowly missed a third, and has generally been in the business of everyone he's faced. Remember worrying that Stribling was going to phase out of our reality at the critical moment? I was struck this weekend by the fact that Wisconsin was bombing it deep at him and when the ball went up I was blithely unconcerned. Here he gets his head around, tracks the ball, and extends for a PBU:

That's just what happens most of the time he's targeted now. He was super-productive in this game with the one undercut INT, one freebie on a throw that sailed, and an near INT on a fly route in addition to the PBU above. The first INT was in fact a route almost identical to the terror moment:

Stribling plays inside technique here and ends up breaking under a ball that should never have been thrown.

But yes the terror moment:

He reacts to the feint inside and then turns his head to the quarterback, at which point Peavy redirects and Michigan's in big trouble. That is a lack of eye discipline; Stribling needs to take another step or two with his eyes on the WR before deciding the move is actually the move. That's real bad. These things happen to cornerbacks and it's more about error rate than being perfect; Stribling was not perfect but he was extremely difficult to deal with.

Stribling has always had the physical ability to stick with guys. He's tall. If he's getting his hands on all the balls he should, yes, he is a highly enticing NFL prospect. NFL.com has noticed. They actually name Jourdan Lewis a draft riser but in the blurb they mention his running mate:

I could have easily written Lewis' teammate, fifth-year senior CB Channing Stribling, as a riser as well. But Lewis had more to gain with his outstanding performance against Wisconsin on Saturday, as he had missed three weeks due to injury to start his senior year.

He'll certainly get drafted.

Should Lewis have dropped that interception?

Aaaaargh.

Too pretty. Also Lewis is a smart guy and no doubt knew that with 2:15 on the clock Michigan would not have to punt and he could turn on the style points.

How are we doing with the bust rate?

Still comfortably low. I've mentioned a couple of issues above. One was the Peavy jet sweep on which Hill was lost and Lewis late getting over after having a hurried chat with Stribling about who's responsibility it was to go with him. The other was Gedeon rushing up on a drag route. I also think the 14-yarder up the gut was McCray ending up in the wrong gap as M slants the line:

When the line slants and a linebacker goes the same way you're about to get a cutback on your face; McCray goes the same way as Glasgow and Hurst and indeed there is a massive lane.

Other than that, though, Michigan played a very clean game. They've done a much better job of keeping to their rush lanes since UCF and I think the Gedeon play was the only actual coverage bust. Our weekly disclaimer about busts being hard to detect when the quarterback is snowed under by multiple guys repeatedly does apply, but the opposition has not hit a long play in two weeks. That is progress from UCF/Colorado.

So can we call the safeties boring again? Please?

Er. Probably not yet. But they were good here.

The safeties weren't involved a ton but Hill did have one very nice third down stop. You know how announcers always cluck about routes short of the sticks? Sometimes that's not a mental error. Sometimes you are literally not able to get there before the timing of the play demands you turn around. That was the case on this TE out:

Hill delays him for a yard or three and that's the difference between a conversion and a punt. He's done this to a couple other TE routes this year. Hill also got over on one of the fly routes Hornibrook was throwing just before he got blown up.

Meanwhile, Thomas was mostly quiet. Michigan did see that thing where they show a two high look and then fire one S down on the snap pay off when Thomas found himself unblocked in the gap:

This disguise is something Michigan hasn't needed to pay off much, but I like this setup much better: Michigan can go middle of the field open or closed from a two high look without disclosing that presnap. Last year they told everyone what they were doing on every snap.

Is there anything to learn from the plays that didn't get immediately crushed?

Michigan should try to avoid having its ILBs cover speed backs out of the backfield. The touchdown was of course a wheel route on which Gedeon got a tough assignment. I kind of question his flight path here but there's a slant in the way so I'm not sure he can do much better. With Michigan tipping the safety blitz and then running this, this was a pretty obvious read:

Ogunbowale also had an early flare that got the corner against McCray in another mismatch. Michigan had a reaction to that, though. On UW's last drive Peppers initially went out to the field, where he should usually go. McCray pointed him back to the boundary. Odd, until they run that flare again and Peppers gets to be an edge demon once again:

Michigan's inside linebackers are still going to lose these battles when Michigan gets caught in the wrong play. I think that's just something we'll have to live with.

Heroes?

As per usual, the entire DL. Ryan Glasgow gets the gold star this week. Stribling and Lewis were also terrific, except for that one thing Stribling did.

Maybe not so heroic?

Nobody really. 

What does it mean for Rutgers and the future?

Godin can play. This was a good test against some good OL and he performed well. Time to stop thinking about him as a break-in-case-of-emergency guy. He will continue to rotate a lot even as Mone approaches full health.

Peppers is in tough against manballers. He had a muted day since this was not a good fit for his skillset. Distantly possible that we see some Furbush down the road in certain situations.

Channing Stribling is almost entirely legit. Five games in he's still grading out very well both here and PFF. The one big mistake was very big indeed but that will happen to everyone eventually. He consistently shows up in the right place and is almost impossible to shake. He'll get drafted, possibly high.

Michigan's less comfortable with Winovich and Gary against manball teams. Makes sense but I'm a little surprised Charlton didn't get one snap off.

Opponents will continue doing all they can to get the ILBs isolated on slot receivers and speed backs. That is the one thing that has seemed to work consistently for opponents. There's only so many times you can run those plays; I would expect Michigan sees close to the maximum of said plays.

Charlton and Lewis are all the way back. Both played every snap and kicked ass. Lingering injury concerns can be put aside.