He left room for help, but Alex Kile returns as Michigan's lone 30+-point scorer [Rapai/MGoBlog]
I don't think it will get picked as the slogan for the student section t-shirt, but if you plan to refer to the 2016-17 hockey season as "the season of cognitive dissonance," you're not wrong. After watching a team with one of the most potent offenses in the country three of the last four seasons, Michigan loses five of the their top-six wingers and their two most offensively productive defensemen. The cavalry isn't exactly arriving in the form of the freshmen class, as Michigan will add productive lower-line players but no phenom in the Kyle Connor/Dylan Larkin mold.
All, however, is not lost. The aforementioned group of freshmen should be ready to play immediately, and by all accounts the majority of them should provide solid two-way help. Alex Kile appears ready to handle an increased scoring burden, and MIchigan’s deeper and more talented on defense than they’ve been in years; with eight that could justifiably be in the lineup every night, the blueliners should be the backbone of this team.
Red Berenson doesn't have the task in front of him that he thought he would when he decided to come back for one more season. Instead of having to find a winger to complement JT Compher and Tyler Motte's scoring prowess and near-telepathic connection he has to find a brand new top half of the lineup. The entire first power play unit needs to be replaced. Steve Racine, who finally found his groove as a starter in 2015-16 thanks to goaltending coach Steve Shields, is gone. Berenson will need to take the talent he's been given and mold it; he has a bit of head start with the incoming freshmen, as most scouting reports laud their defensive responsibility more than their offensive prowess. There will be games you'll sit down and watch this season and recognize almost nothing aside from the "M" on the front of the sweater. That's fine. If this team can reinvent its identity in an offseason, if it can eschew wide-open play for tighter defensive coverage, then they can contend in the Big Ten.
[After THE JUMP: position group previews, a new stats project, and the season outlook]
Our own David Nasternak and I had an idea late last season: you can find Corsi numbers online, but what if we took it one step further and started looking at where those numbers were being generated? David's a big EPL fan and after showing me a post about the shot charts commonly used in soccer it seemed natural to attempt to translate that to hockey. There's been a lot of discussion among more analytically-oriented fans about the "home plate" area and its importance in scoring chance generation. I used that as the focal point of the chart and broke things into zones from there. We tracked all the components of Corsi*—goals, shots on goal, blocked shots, and missed shots—by team and by player at even strength, on the power play, and on the penalty kill for the last 16 games of the season.
What we found differs a bit from the season-long statistics kept by College Hockey News. They have 2134 shot attempts for Michigan and 2000 shot attempts allowed at even strength; Michigan's Corsi For % is 51.6. In our 16 game sample, we tracked 917 shot attempts for and 981 shot attempts against; Michigan's CF% was just 48.3%. Our numbers are a little skewed thanks in part to a pair of games (one against Penn State, the other the tournament game against NoDak) where Michigan was out shot-attempted by more than 20. Even so, the player-level data broken down by zone is interesting and worth discussing.
Forwards
Michigan's top four scorers accounted for 46% of last season's points. Jump over Alex Kile and count Justin Selman and Boo Nieves and Michigan loses 58.9% of last season's scoring. While one of those top four scorers was a defenseman (Zach Werenski and his 35 points), that's still a massive amount to replace in one season.
Alex Kile's 16 goals and 18 assists in 2015-16 make him a mortal lock for top-line duty in 2016-17. He put up 52 shot attempts in the 17 games we tracked; 26 of those were in the home plate area, including 18 in zone 1. In other words, he doesn't waste a ton of shot attempts by taking them from the perimeter, instead getting to the areas of the ice where the chance of scoring is better. He's also the lone returning forward with extensive power play experience, putting up 19 of his 23 total PP shot attempts in our sample from the all-important zone 1.
Your thoughts on this will be colored by how important you feel continuity is in hockey, but on a team where five of the top six forwards have to be replaced I wouldn't be too surprised at all to see the Brendan Warren-Cooper Marody-Tony Calderone line kept intact and elevated to the second line. At least, this may be the case after the GLI; Marody is ineligible for the first semester. That’s a huge blow to a team already limited at center, and for the team’s first exhibition game resulted in Brendan Warren and Nick Pastujov playing out of position at center. It’s possible that Warren sticks at center, but with an increased defensive workload it would seem like the logical move would be to move him back to wing when Marody returns.
Collectively, the trio posted 70 points in 2015-16, with Marody (10) and Calderone (11) reaching double-digit goal totals. Warren's 17 points was the lowest of the three, but his shot attempt chart is encouraging; only nine of his 47 attempts were blocked, and he attempted more shots from zones 3 and 4 than his linemates. If he can redistribute his shot attempts from zones 5-7 to zones 1-4 he should see better a better point total this season. Calderone seems to have already received that memo, as 28 of his 42 shot attempts came from zones 1 and 2. Four of his 10 attempts from zone 2 were blocked, but he made up for that with his work in zone 1: two goals, 11 saves, four misses, and only one block. To borrow from scout parlance, he takes the puck to the dirty areas of the ice and is effective in doing so. (Marody missed six of the 17 games we tracked, so his shot chart isn't as telling as Calderone and Warren's.)
Dexter Dancs and Max Shuart will each find a spot among the top nine forwards; Shuart could feasibly play top-six minutes, but it seems that Berenson and co. like deploying him as the third-line center. Dancs had seven goals and 17 points last season while Shuart had six goals and 15 points, though the shot charts we recorded hint at what the might be able to do as they continue to develop. Dancs attempted 28 of 32 shots in zones 1-4, including 14 in zone 1. Shuart's case is a bit stranger: in the games we tracked, he scored four goals (two in zone 1 and one each in zones 3 and 4), had nine shots saved, seven blocked, and missed the net four times. That tells me that he's good when he does what a center does and hovers around the front of the net, chipping the puck in off rebounds.
Other veterans with a chance to work their way into the lineup include Evan Allen and Niko Porikos. Allen played 23 games as a freshman in 2013-14 and put up six points, then had a disappointing sophomore season in which he only skated in 10 games before getting into the lineup 24 times and recording four points last season. Porikos was a defenseman in his junior hockey days, and he spent 2014-15 transitioning to forward. In 2015-16, he skated in 17 games and put up a goal and two assists. He can skate. How much of a playmaker he'll be remains to be seen, as I really haven't seen enough of him to have form an opinion of his on-ice vision.
With so many established players exiting the lineup Michigan needs fresh faces just to field a full team, and they're bringing them in by the truckload. The highest drafted of the incoming freshmen is Will Lockwood, who was taken in the third round of the 2016 NHL Draft by the Vancouver Canucks. Lockwood was taken about a round higher than he was expected to go, but I can see why; his game is a nice blend of speed and physical play, and some NHL teams covet that (*cough* Ken Holland's affinity for Darren Helm *cough*). Lockwood should step in and fill one of the wing spots capably; he was the first-line right wing in Michigan’s exhibition game against Windsor.
Lockwood's former US NTDP teammate Nick Pastujov could eventually play top-six minutes, but for now he’s centering the fourth line. A shoulder injury suffered during his NTDP career required offseason surgery, and Pastujov just got the go-ahead to practice without restrictions last week. The New York Islanders took Pastujov in the seventh round, and though that was somewhere between one and three rounds lower than he was projected to be selected it meshes with his stats and some of the scouting reports floating around. Pastujov put up 21 points in 60 games for the NTDP U18 team, with 13 of those 21 points goals. He scored three goals in seven games at the World Junior Championship, and though it's a small sample size that was against most of the best U18 talent in the world; there's still a glimmer of hope you can hold onto that his offensive output might be eventually be somewhat significant at Michigan—read the article linked above and you’ll see that Red Berenson expects exactly that—but even if that takes a while to develop, he should fit into a bottom-six role where he can play good defense and snipe in a few in year one.
James Sanchez had a little bit of draft buzz at one time but ended up going unselected. He's another former US NTDP skater, and scouting reports make him out to be something of a power forward. He put up 13 points in 52 games with the U17 team and 18 points in 64 games with the U18 team, so he'll need to be pretty good defensively if he's going to make and stay in the lineup. Sanchez will be competing against guys like Allen and Porikos for playing time on the fourth line.
Jake Slaker has had an interesting career thus far. He played for the elite Belle Tire squad in 2013-14 and put up 38 points in 35 games. His point total dropped when he joined the USHL’s Bloomington Thunder the next season (25 points in 57 games), but it rebounded a bit in 2015-16. Last season, he tallied 21 goals and 21 assists in 57 games while serving as the Thunder’s captain. Berenson and his staff added Slaker in the summer after the exodus, and that move looks even better in hindsight; with Cooper Marody out of the lineup, Slaker centered the first line in Michigan’s exhibition game.
Steve Merl will be a surprise if he puts up many points. At 6’4” and 207 pounds, he’s a big guy who’s in the lineup to hit and tie guys up in the corners. He skated with the fourth line as the right wing, which is interesting considering he played center in the USHL and the team’s lack of depth at that position.
[Sherman/MGoBlog]
------------------------------
Defensemen
Losing Werenski and Downing leaves a big bunch of shots on the table for other defensemen who may be offensively inclined; Downing and Werenski took a combined 117 shot attempts in our 17-game sample, which was 12.6% of the total shot attempts over that period. Michigan may have two such players on the roster in Nolan De Jong and freshman Luke Martin. De Jong steadily improved over the course of 2015-16 and appeared ready to be top-pair defenseman by season's end. His 49 shot attempts was just four fewer than Werenski over the same stretch. De Jong's shot attempts came mainly from zones 5-7, but that's the case for every defenseman on the roster save Werenski. He should see his point total increase from the 11 (with no goals) he recorded last season. Martin's eligible for the 2017 NHL Draft and is hovering at the end of the first round or very early in the second round in early mock drafts; he just received an A grade from NHL Central Scouting, which equates to a first-round grade. He can be counted on for a bit of offense if his junior stats are any indication; Downing averaged a tenth of a point more per game in the USHL. Martin's defensive positioning is advanced for his age, so what he may lack in scoring prowess should be made up for in his ability to keep guys away from the net.
Other defensemen who should be able to keep guys away from the net include Nick Boka and Joseph Cecconi, both of whom stepped into the lineup last season as freshmen and never relinquished their spots. Putting Boka on the top pair with De Jong would make sense in terms of balancing offense and defense, and it puts a left- and right-handed shot together.
Cutler Martin's speed and skating got him a shot as a forward for a couple games last season; it's not unreasonable to think the staff might move him to forward full-time in 2016-17, but you can drop a few percentage points off the chance that happens because of Berenson and co.'s penchant for dressing seven defensemen.
Another freshman who will likely step right into the starting lineup is Griffin Luce, who was expected to be a mid-round draft pick and somehow went undrafted. Luce is a so-called defensive-defenseman, and like Luke Martin he's known for doing the little things well (good work, US NTDP). Luce and Cutler Martin would make a good third pairing if Martin doesn't get moved to forward.
Kevin Lohan missed all but two games last season to an upper-body injury that went from something that was supposed to keep him out one series to something that kept him out all year. His size (6'6) and the solid positioning he started to develop in 2014-15 would be a boon for the defense corps if he's fully healed.
Sam Piazza is somehow going to be a junior, and he should find a way to crack the top three pairings considering he’s defenseman who moves the puck well; with the loss of offensive-minded defensemen, Michigan will need another blueliner who knows how to break out of the defensive zone.
------------------------------
[Sherman/MGoBlog]
Goalies
Zach Nagelvoort will be battling a couple of fresh faces for the starting spot after spending most of the last three years trading the job back and forth with Steve Racine. Last season was Nagelvoort's worst in a Michigan uniform statistically, posting a 2.99 GAA and .893 SV%. He started most of the month of October before ceding the job to Racine, and he only regained the starting spot in December because Racine was injured. His career has trended down after an impressive freshman stat line (2.20 GAA, .929 SV%).
The most likely challenger to Nagelvoort is Jack LaFontaine; it's telling that LaFontaine was supposed to arrive on campus in 2017 and was asked to come in a year earlier. He went from being an under-the-radar prospect to a third-round draft pick following his lone season with the Janesville Jets of the NAHL, in which he put up a 2.16 GAA and .921 SV%. Scouts really like his athleticism and ability to play the puck, which could help put Michigan's defenders in a better position to break out of the defensive zone if he can time that well against faster competition.
Hayden Lavigne will also be arriving on campus this fall. He was once thought of as a definite future starter at Michigan, though that sentiment has cooled since his commitment. He did have something of a bounceback season in 2015-16, starting a career-high 39 games with a 2.26 GAA and .914 SV% for the USHL's Bloomington Thunder.
Chad Catt returns for his second season at Michigan. There's a good chance he doesn't win the starting job considering the first line of his bio on the official site is "providing depth for Michigan's goaltending corps…" but, you know, depth is good.
------------------------------
[Sherman/MGoBlog]
Outlook
Michigan opens the season and non-conference slate at home against Union, a series that should provide something of a test without being overly difficult. Union returns most of last season’s roster and has some firepower, but that team finished 13-14-9.
Ferris State is next on Michigan’s schedule, and they’re also the first ranked team Michigan will face; USCHO has them ranked #20 in their preseason poll. Ferris returns some frightening point producers, including point-per-game scorer Gerald Mayhew. It’s scary enough to have to travel to Big Rapids, but Michigan only gets one game there to get an RPI boost. This game should give a fair indication of how defensively responsible Michigan will be this season.
Known Friend and Trusted Agent Mel Pearson returns to Ann Arbor next, and he brings a Michigan Tech team that’s good enough to make it back to the tournament. They did, however, lose leading scorer Alex Petan and starting goaltender Jamie Phillips, so there’s a change that they’re vulnerable if they’re still figuring out which goaltender will be their go-to guy.
Michigan then heads east for one game against Vermont and one the next night against Dartmouth; both teams aren’t even close to sniffing the polls, so Michigan has to sweep this road series.
On that topic, Michigan heads to Glendale for a one-off game against Arizona State the following week. Arizona State’s still trying to get their program off the ground; this is their first season playing a full D-I schedule. They’ve never defeated a ranked team, so Michigan must win this game if only to avoid the drain on RPI.
The script is flipped the following weekend, as Michigan welcomes undoubtedly the best non-conference opponent—and probably the flat-out best opponent—they’ll face all year to Yost. Fourth-ranked Boston University brings their cadre of highly touted freshmen, including first-round draft picks Kieffer Bellows and Clayton Keller, both of whom were selected before the 20th pick was off the board in the 2016 NHL Draft. BU also returns most of their defense corps and their goaltender, and even though their goalie wasn’t that good last year, they have former US NTDP member Jake Oettinger, a projected second-round pick in the 2017 Draft, ready to take over. They are, frankly, terrifying.
Michigan then gets a breather in name only the next Friday against the US NTDP U18s. It’s an exhibition game, but that team is so talented that they’re better than a couple of the teams on M’s schedule this season.
Lake Superior State closes out the non-conference slate (excluding the GLI). They finished 14-22-5 last season even with a fairly good goaltender in Gordon Defiel, and they aren’t bringing in much firepower to bolster their lack of scoring.
Conference play starts the first week of December at Penn State. The clear favorite in the conference is Minnesota thanks to the scoring abilities of Justin Kloos and Leon Bristedt and the stellar goaltending of Eric Schierhorn. After that, there’s a tangled mess of teams that could finish second through fifth; Ohio State (!), Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin all have a good amount of talent and a fair number of question marks. Michigan State has an incredibly difficult non-conference schedule and an anemic offense, and they’re likely to finish at the bottom of the conference.
Michigan was picked to finish third in the conference poll, which seems about right. They’re starting the season ranked 11th by USCHO, which seems too high given that Minnesota is starting at #13. Michigan certainly has a shot to contend in the conference this season, as Minnesota’s about as good as they usually are and the other four teams appropriately fall into the “others receiving votes” category. How Michigan fares against their non-conference opponents and whether they improve defensively—consider that they’re bringing in a recruiting class that specializes in two-way play and two solid goaltenders—will determine the season.
With seeming parity throughout much of the conference, non-conference wins take on extra importance. If the Big Ten members end up punching each other in the face from December to March, and if not many of them end up ranked, then the early-season games against nationally ranked non-conference opponents will provide Michigan a rare opportunity to get a quality-win RPI bonus. Michigan won’t be able to pick up the road bonus for two of those non-conference series (BU and Michigan Tech), making it all the more important that they’re rounded into form by late October; if they lose, they face the RPI penalty for a home loss and will likely have trouble making up for that as the season progresses.
------------------------------
*If you're wondering why Corsi is important, it's been found that it's more predictive of future win-loss outcomes than basic statistics. The idea behind it is that the team shooting more is the team with possession of the puck, and possessing the puck means increased offensive zone time. It's hard to argue that possession is anything but good.