Mailbag: Brown Transition Costs, Let's Go Moo, Schedule Balance, Autobench As Cause

let me show you how we handle punks in the district, punk [Patrick Barron]

Hi Brian,

Everywhere I turn this offseason, it seems someone is writing another article lauding the aggression, complexity, blitzes, and disguises built into Don Brown's defense. These attributes have obvious upside, but are we overlooking what could be a very steep learning curve for this defense? Can we really expect these guys to flawlessly execute such a reportedly complex defense within the first year?

Best,

Stephen Bowie

There will be transition costs; there always are. When you're real good and have real good players those can be overcome. Last year's offense had a bunch of transition costs and still rocketed from 82nd in S&P+ to 30th; in FEI they went from 100th(!) to 33rd. This leap occurred despite weekly UFR diatribes about how various people on Michigan's offense still didn't really know what they were doing.

It going to be tougher for the defense to have anything similar since they were already very good. It's hard to improve much from 20th (FEI) or 2nd (S&P+). The leap from DJ Durkin to Don Brown is probably extant; it is certainly less grand than the leap from Brady Hoke to Jim Harbaugh. Meanwhile Brown's defenses have tended to tread water in year one:

There's a ton of noise in that data since we're not accounting for returning starters and the like. It still suggests that a great leap forward should not be expected.

On the other hand, Don Brown has never been handed even half of the talent he's got this year and it's almost all very experienced. Michigan's starting D consists of eight seniors, a redshirt junior, Jabrill Peppers, and Rashan Gary. While these guys haven't worked on certain things Brown does, they've at least encountered them from time to time; they can also spend the bulk of their offseason working on that stuff since you can take it as read that they've got man free coverages down.

It is a concern, but the schedule is reassuring. I'll take a series of early biffs against teams Michigan beats by 21 instead of 28 if the payoff is a defense that is finally, finally, finally equipped with the state of the art in shutting down a spread n shred. The talent available should mitigate some of those hiccups—a coverage bust doesn't hurt you if the QB is running for his life—and once those get smoothed over, Michigan's ceiling is higher.

Let's go moo

Hello,

In my travels throughout the internet I came a cross a rather unique rendition of 'Let's Go Blue' that I thought should be shared. There is a man named Farmer Derek, a high level Bard no doubt, who serenades his cattle and posts the songs on YouTube. At the end of his version of Royals by Lorde he goes into Let's Go Blue and the cattle respond in kind. I don't know what should be done with this video, if anything, but I believe it should be shared and thought you should be notified. Cheers.

Sincerely yours in football,

PinballPete

This is a great service to the fandom, Pinball Pete:

[After THE JUMP: not cows responding to Let's Go Blue so why even bother]

Schedule balance to return in the future?

Brian:

Much of the talk about future Michigan/Michigan State/Ohio State schedules ignores the likelihood that Penn State will be one of the most successful B1G programs in the next few years.  Perhaps you disagree because you trust Dantonio and don't trust Franklin, but I assume that in a decade, PSU is more likely to be competing for division titles than MSU is.  With that in mind, the perfect set-up would  be what we had most of the time before--go to MSU and PSU in odd years, go to OSU in even years.  If we can't get that back, what we have is probably the second best of the possibilities, at least with regard to competitiveness.

Why am I wrong?

Andrew

It's not really about competitive balance. It's about ticket attractiveness. Like it or not, Michigan State is a rival and Penn State isn't. Even when MSU was suffering through those odd 50 years after the South started letting black guys play, the average buzz around the stadium when MSU was in town exceeded that of even good PSU outfits. For people in the state or around the state who comprise the large bulk of ticketholders it is a bigger deal simply because of proximity. PSU might get better; they won't get closer.

The ideal setup is having OSU one year and PSU/MSU the other year, because OSU is a season ticket on its own. If the Big Ten hadn't hated Dave Brandon so much they boned him when the schedules got rearranged Michigan would still have that.

Recruiting profile opinion shifts.

Brian,

As always, I have really enjoyed the recruiting profiles.  I know you mentioned that you flipped your view on McDoom and Johnson after you prepared the profiles, but were there any others that surprised you? Personally, you were higher on all 3 of the tight ends than I thought you would be and on the flip side, you were more negative about Evans and Kemp than I was expecting.

thanks,
Jason

Yeah, my opinion shifted on a number of guys in the process of going through their profiles. I'll give you some stock up and stock down guys, but keep in mind this is based on my own internal thought processes rather than the rankings. Also a stock down is not doom or hatred, but rather a guy who might take a while to see the field:

STOCK UP:

• Kareem Walker. The lack of tape and late downgrade made me think I'd go into his profile and come out thinking he didn't get dumped enough. Instead found a guy who does a lot of subtle things and can be a top physical package if things work out.
• Eddie McDoom. Obviously.
• Devin Asiasi. As I mentioned in the post, on Signing Day it felt like Asiasi was a slight bonus on top of Rashan Gary. After going through his profile I was reminded that this was probably the top TE in the country for Harbaugh and his style of play. That is a big, big deal.
• Sean McKeon. Did not realize he was that athletic.
• Josh Uche. The other sleeper of the year. A Don Brown dude.
• David Long. Long is a lock. A lock, a lock, a lock.

STOCK DOWN:

• Ahmir Mitchell. Had not realized his senior season was so devoid of production. Forgot that he got worked by Reon Dawson on that one clip. Off-field stuff also a problem.
• Carlo Kemp. He should be a solid player but appears to be an SDE/WDE tweener who won't excel at either position.
• Devin Bush. For some reason I thought he was higher rated by the services.
• Lavert Hill. Still think he's got great upside and he did have a fantastic senior year. Did not realize there were a bunch of reports that he got burned deep on the regular because of a lack of "eye discipline" out there. More variance in his outcome than I had assumed.

I went into the Nick Eubanks and Nate Johnson profiles expecting what I found, for the most part. Eubanks is a huge wild card. I still like Johnson a lot as the slot who can also burninate a safety deep; I just like McDoom a little bit better since I think he can thrive on the outside. Both are underrated. I also came out about the same on Chris Evans: fast as hell, but a man without a position. I'd be higher on him if this was the kind of offense that had a spread-style H-back.

Autobench as a cause of low fouling?

Like you, I am not a fan of JB's auto bench policy. Makes no sense to take decision making out of the process...game flow, value of being on the floor, downgrade of the replacement, match ups, cooling down a hot shooter, etc. And you have pointed out the fact that UM is consistently one of the lowest fouling teams in the country, so presumably a player with 2 fouls is in less danger of getting 3 and 4 on a UM team. But I wonder if we are missing a nuance wherein the auto bench policy itself helps DRIVE the low foul rate, or at least has a large impact? If player X is coached that the punishment for early fouling is automatic benching, said player is much less likely to foul to begin with, no? I guess the question is that enough of a positive impact to swing the pendulum away from all the obvious negatives?

Yours in Bluedom,
Beegs, class of '89

Unfortunately I can't find anything on the internet that gives you foul times in enough detail to confirm or disconfirm such a thing. I am personally skeptical that autobench drives much of Michigan's low foul rate.

A cursory scan of Kenpom's autobench data by coach doesn't show much correlation between team foul frequency and autobench strategy. Mike Brey is another coach whose teams never ever foul (since 2012 ND has been 6th, 4th, 29th, 5th, and 11th in FTA/FGA) and he is amongst the most autobench-averse coaches in college basketball. Ditto Jim Boeheim, though the fact that he plays all zone complicates things. Arizona and Baylor are also amongst the most aggressive teams in this category and their foul rates are generally low, though not in the Brey/Beilein zone.

I should also point out that there are plenty of good defenses that pile up fouls. The absolute worst team in FTA/FGA a year ago, West Virginia, was 7th in defensive efficiency. #1 efficiency D Wichita State was 327th in FTA/FGA. Fewer fouls does not necessarily mean better D, something that I expect Billy Donlon and Beilein to have a debate on CNN about this fall. Seth made a graph:

That scatter pattern and R-squared are characteristic of two variables that don't correlate much. Foul avoidance isn't even much of a goal to shoot for.

I probably shouldn't bother with a response to this but it happened.

The SEC-ification is now complete.

A fashion show in Detroit?

A program that gets publicity via the tweets from their head coach?

"Camps" in Miami?

I've always held Michigan to an incredibly high standard and the torch bearer of the Big Ten of how sport and Athletics can work in harmony.

I just can't help but think there is now nothing separating Michigan from the likes of OSU, Alabama & Oregon except winning football games over the last 20 years.  This sucks.

I'm an Iowa fan who loves your insights on the game and Michigan has always been my 2nd favorite team.

I'm not sure why I'm writing except for I'm discouraged by the last year+ of your program.

Maybe I'm jealous?

Maybe i'm just discouraged by the trajectory of big time college athletics?

dan

I think you're picking your battles unwisely. If you're going to stick your nose up in the air about something it should probably be about something weightier than Twitter or satellite camps. Michigan's APR is through the roof—not that this distinguishes it from most of the Big Ten—and they aren't admitting guys caught on tape beating up on prone women. Again, not that this distinguishes it from most of the Big Ten. Twitter bombs and Nike marketing are small potatoes compared to the things that have gone down at Mississippi State, Baylor, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and various other schools.

Michigan booted Logan Tuley-Tillman for an offense that would have barely registered many places. The guys who have left the team this offseason have, with one exception*, left with degrees. When that's not happening come talk to me about the SEC.

*[Brian Cole was booted for a violation of team rules, again for things that might not have raised flags at many schools.]