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2016 SEC East Preview

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Tennessee Spring Football

Former Michigan OC Mike DeBord is masterminding the Tennessee attack

Previously: Pac-12 North, Pac-12 South, ACC Coastal (and Notre Dame), ACC Atlantic, Big 12

While SEC hype generally encompasses the whole league, perhaps it would be more accurate to call the West division – which has now won seven straight SEC title games – the class of college football instead of the conference as a whole. Maybe the credit should mostly be given to Alabama, a contemporary dynasty that’s won four national titles over that span.

In any case, the SEC East lags far behind its better half, and last year was no exception: after clinching the division, Florida barely beat Florida Atlantic at home and lost to Alabama in the conference championship (in a game where Bama was content to remain in 1st gear and allow its defense to crush the UF offense). Florida also lost to Florida State and Michigan – two very good, but not elite teams from great divisions – by a combined score of 67-9. The Gators finished two games ahead of the pack in the East.

Much of the division is in a bad place right now. Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt. Kentucky is Kentucky. Steve Spurrier left a depleted roster at South Carolina and bailed halfway into a 3-9 2015 campaign; USCe compounded the problem by hiring Will Muschamp, who’s technically part of the Saban coaching tree and who imploded as head coach during a disastrous tenure at Florida. Missouri had a hideously dysfunctional season on offense (and dealt with campus issues far bigger than football last fall) and promoted their defensive coordinator after Gary Pinkel retired. Georgia had grown stale under Mark Richt, so they hired Kirby Smart – a UGA alum, most recently Saban’s defensive coordinator, a guy who’s never been a head coach; the Bulldogs have talent, but the coaching is an unknown and the Bulldogs were about as bad as a team with 10-3 record (which is really good!) can be. Florida’s offense was awful once QB Will Grier was lost to a suspension – now they’re choosing between a Purdue transfer (Austin Appleby), Luke Del Rio (son of Jack, who’s never thrown a pass in a college game) and true freshman Feleipe Franks.

Tennessee is the favorite to win the SEC East in 2016 and while they are benefiting from the boost in hype that comes with an impressive bowl showing (they beat Northwestern 45-6), they are the most experienced and complete team in their division and one of few teams in the SEC with any certainty at the quarterback position.

[Team previews after the JUMP]

jalen hurd

Enormous Vol RB Jalen Hurd is tough to bring down at 6’4, 240

Tennessee

It’s been rough in Knoxville since Tennessee fired longtime coach Phil Fulmer after a 5-7 season in 2008: they’ve had three coaches and have posted a 44-44 record since. 2015’s 9-4 showing was a significant upgrade over much of UT’s recent history, and since they return a ton from that team, there’s good reason for optimism for the first time in a while.

The four losses from a year ago came against Oklahoma (in double OT), Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama in the first seven weeks of the season by a combined 17 points – the easier second half of the schedule saw Tennessee go on a six-game winning streak to end the season, capped by that Outback Bowl romp over Northwestern. Butch Jones was tasked with steadily rebuilding post-Derek Dooley and he’s done well in that regard – the Vols have improved their win total by two in his second and third seasons; with that trajectory, Tennessee is in for a double digit season and SEC title contention in 2016.

The offense looks great on paper, but a ton will be riding on QB Joshua Dobbs, who’s generally been much better in theory than in reality as a multi-year starter – Dobbs will be a senior again this year and while he provides a solid dual-threat element (671 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns), his passing numbers were very pedestrian and Tennessee was unable to throw it a lot when they needed to. Experience returns at receiver as well, though there’s nothing resembling a standout go-to target.

The run game is what works best for the Vols: Jalen Hurd is part of an excellent junior class of running backs in college football, Alvin Kamara provides a great complement as a change-of-pace back, and Dobbs provides another weapon that defenses must account for. With OC Mike DeBord at the helm, criticisms of overly conservative and / or unimaginative playcalling abound, and indeed, Tennessee blew several late leads last season en route to their losses as their offense turtled.

John Shoop left Penn State to become the new Tennessee DC and the Vols return quite a few playmakers from last season. Derek Barnett is one of the best pass-rushing ends in college football, Kahlil McKenzie is a mountain of a man inside, Jalen Reeves-Maybin provides a ton of production from the outside linebacker spot, and Cameron Sutton may be the best corner in the SEC. Years of playing with a young core has paid off for Jones and Tennessee as most of the defense has been around for quite a while. The safeties are unproven and great defenses can be torpedoed if it’s big play-prone, but expectations for the Vol defense are understandably high and they’ve collectively proven far more than the offense has through this point in the developmental process. Questions about the offense are far more understandable.

While Tennessee is a strong contender for the SEC East crown, their larger aspirations (an SEC championship and / or a playoff bid) may still be a bit out of reach. Their annual grudge matches against Florida and Alabama come at home, but they haven’t beaten the Gators since 2004 or the Tide since 2006 and a win over either would constitute a major breakthrough. Of course, if they do win the SEC East, Alabama could very well loom for a rematch for the conference title in Atlanta. Otherwise, their schedule shouldn’t be too tough – they play Virginia Tech at a huge NASCAR stadium in September (and the jokes write themselves) and draw Texas A&M as their other West opponent. Whether Tennessee has what it takes to make a serious playoff push will be contingent on development from Dobbs as a passer, but the rest of the pieces seem to be there.

jalen tabor

CB Jalen Tabor (center) is receiving some preseason All-American hype

Florida

Tennessee’s top challenger will be last year’s division champs, Florida. The Gators were a positive surprise under first-year head coach Jim McElwain (surprise, he once was the offensive coordinator for Nick Saban at Alabama), though a loaded defense left behind by Muschamp was key in the UF turnaround. Regardless of the late season swoon, the Gators still finished with a ten-win season after going 11-13 in the previous two seasons combined.

There are plenty of key losses from the 2015 Florida roster: QB Will Grier was suspended for the latter half of last season and later transferred, RB Kelvin Taylor is gone, and the defense loses star DT Jon Bullard, CB Vernon Hargreaves III (last seen being roasted by Jehu Chesson in the Citrus Bowl), and SS Keanu Neal. There’s little doubt that the program is in better shape under McElwain than it was under Muschamp, but a repeat of last season’s division title will require a significant bump on offense.

Considering the depths that the offense was in post-Grier suspension, it’s hard not to think that the Gators will improve, if only because of a regression to the mean. Whoever’s the best of Del Rio, Appleby, and Franks will surely be better than Treon Harris was in 2015, and he’ll have a blossoming star at receiver in explosive sophomore Antonio Callaway. JUCO bruiser Mark Thompson will run behind an offensive line that will likely be better than it was a year ago; injuries and a lack of depth hurt at times last season, and the left side of the line – featuring tackle David Sharpe and guard Martez Ivey – should be a strong point.

It’s worth noting that the kicking game was also extremely poor in 2015, as the Gators only converted 7 of 17 field goal attempts and tried quite a few obvious fakes. McElwain’s expertise is on the offensive side of the ball, so Florida will probably come around in time, but with a new quarterback, issues from last year could bubble up again.

The Gator defense should be quite good yet again, though the attrition probably means that they’ll take a slight step back this season. Unsurprisingly, there’s a ton of talent, as Muschamp left this side of the ball in great shape. Jalen Tabor might have been a better corner than 1st round pick Hargreaves last season, and even though Florida lost a stellar safety in Neal, they get another back in Marcus Maye and should have one of the better secondaries in the country.

Linebacker Jarrad Davis is the team’s leading returning tackler at outside linebacker, and he has the luxury of playing behind a typically excellent defensive line – look for sophomore end CeCe Jefferson to emerge as the star of that group. The best thing for this defense would quite simply be a better offense – they faced an unthinkable amount of strain and a razor-thin margin for error because of how little help they received on the scoreboard from the O, and until the offense proves that it’s improved enough, the defense will probably have a similar issue in 2016.

nick chubb

If he recovers fully from injury, Nick Chubb will be one of the best RBs in CFB

Georgia

After the 2015 season, Georgia parted ways with longtime head coach Mark Richt, who’d won double digit games in four of his last five years but ultimately failed to deliver an SEC title to Athens after winning two early in his tenure (2002 and 2005). Hiring Brian Schottenheimer to take over the offense before last season proved to be disastrous and quarterback uncertainty – coupled with the injury to standout tailback Nick Chubb – doomed the Bulldogs.

Ultimately, their 10-3 season probably felt empty: they were routed by Alabama at home, lost to a then 2-3 Tennessee team, and put up a wretched performance against Florida, losing 27-3 (even after Will Grier was suspended). There were even painful wins – a 9-6 rock fight over Missouri and a 23-17 OT win against Georgia Southern didn’t elicit much confidence. They did beat rather poor Auburn and Georgia Tech teams by a score each (and did the same against Penn State), but even a late-season winning streak didn’t save Richt.

Enter Kirby Smart, long coveted as one of the best assistant coaches in the country; he held out for a top job and eventually his alma mater cast its eye on him. Smart comes from the Saban defensive braintrust, and as a first-time head coach, the biggest question will be if he can start turning around the Bulldog offense. Quarterback is still unsettled: veteran Greyson Lambert was uninspiring last season and incoming freshman Jacob Eason – the top QB recruit in the country – will be given every chance to win the job.

Chubb’s knee injury is still keeping him out of practice at the time of this writing, though there’s a good chance he’ll be back and that would be enormous for UGA. Backup Sony Michel performed well in Chubb’s absence and they could be the best one-two punch at running back in the country. Terry Godwin was the nominal #1 target (and only had 35 receptions) and he’s back; the offensive line was unsettled last season and is uncertain once again – RT Greg Pyke anchors that unit.

Smart should have the defense in good shape, starting immediately. He inherits the entirety of a very strong secondary: safeties Dominick Sanders and Quincy Mauger will enable the front seven to be more aggressive, which is important because of the inexperience on the line and in the linebacking corps. Former blue-chip recruit Trenton Thompson has shown flashes and will play end in Smart’s 3-4 – he’s probably the best player in that unit. Inside linebacker Tim Kimbrough is the team’s leading returning tackler and should rack up plenty in that scheme.

The defense really only cracked against Alabama and Tennessee last season and mercifully, the Tide rotate off the schedule. Georgia does face a high-powered offense in Atlanta as North Carolina comes to town for the season-opener at the Georgia Dome. An early two week stretch at Ole Miss and against Tennessee at home will determine if UGA will be able to contend for the division title in year one of the Smart era.

boom williams

This man goes by the name of Boom Williams – the best name for a running back

Kentucky

Though he’s recruited well in Lexington, Mark Stoops enters year four with a lot of uncertainty. After a mulligan 2-10 performance to start, the Wildcats have fallen apart down the stretch, capping back-to-back 5-7 seasons with losses to Louisville in the finales, losses that kept UK from bowl eligibility. In 2015, their only SEC wins came over hapless South Carolina and Missouri squads, and they finished the year on a 1-6 skid, the only win coming over an FCS Charlotte team that’s just starting football.

Stoops should theoretically have a decent amount of talent by this point, and critical to the development of an adequate offense will be if highly-touted sophomore Drew Barker can stabilize the quarterback position. Boom Williams is a deceptively strong and powerful back, but he needs a decent passing game to thrive. Most of the offense is back.

Defensively, only one starter returns in Stoops’s 3-4, and two Big Ten transfers – Courtney Love from Nebraska and De’Niro Laster from Minnesota – will be critical in providing reinforcements to the linebackers. Chris Westry was an excellent corner as a freshman and should only improve; the secondary is Kentucky’s strength on D. Stoops may not get the axe if he misses a bowl game, but with a relatively easy SEC schedule (minus a game in Tuscaloosa), if not now, when?

charles harris

DE Charles Harris is one of the most underrated players in the country

Missouri

During a tumultuous season – one in which the football team threatened to boycott games during a campus-wide protest over racial issues at the school – Missouri managed to have one of the SEC’s best defenses and its very worst offense: they allowed just 16.2 points per game but scored only 13.6. That provided for some truly hideous final scores – they beat UConn 9-6 and lost to Georgia by that exact same score; they lost to Vanderbilt 10-3 and to Tennessee 19-8; they scored in single digits in half their games.

After promoting defensive coordinator Barry Odom – an architect of the typically phenomenal Mizzou defensive lines – to head coach, offensive improvement is the most important objective, by far. Sophomore Drew Lock got his feet wet last season and showed potential. Oklahoma transfer Alex Ross could get snaps behind Ish Witter and provide some sorely-needed explosiveness and big play potential. Defensive linemen Charles Harris and Josh Augusta are the unit’s best, and proven players litter the defensive two-deep. The Tigers should have a great defense again, though the offense still might be a disaster. Drawing LSU from the West is tough, as is traveling to West Virginia to open the season.

zach cunningham

LB Zach Cunningham was named 1st-Team All-SEC last season

Vanderbilt

It’s been tough for Vandy head coach Derek Mason – formerly Stanford’s defensive coordinator – since taking over two years ago; the Commodores have posted just a 7-17 combined record with two conference wins, but at least they’re showing signs of developing a collective identity as a hard-nosed defensive team. Like many others in the East, the offense was somewhat of a mess last season – Vandy only topped 17 points against FBS competition twice and lost a couple of close, low-scoring heartbreakers to Western Kentucky (14-12) and Florida (9-7).

They’re unsettled at quarterback, though sophomore Kyle Shurmur played a lot last season and is the favorite to start; running back Ralph Webb has been productive since he’s been on campus and should keep the Commodore offense afloat even if the QB situation doesn’t work out. They have a veteran offensive line, which should help him out. Zach Cunningham is the soul of Mason’s aggressive 3-4 defense, though NT Jay Woods and FS Oren Burks – who’s moving to a HSP role this fall – are also standout players. There’s depth across the board and Vandy could have one of the better defenses in the SEC. An improvement to bowl eligibility would require a lot of offensive improvement, and it remains to be seen if Mason can produce an effective unit on that side of the ball.

will muschamp

After a one-year stint as Auburn DC, Will Muschamp is back as a head coach

South Carolina

Regardless of who was hired after South Carolina’s dismal 3-9 season, the upcoming 2016 campaign was expected to be very tough. With that in mind, Will Muschamp should get a pass for what happens on the field this year – USCe was mired in a five-way QB battle in the spring and standout WR Pharoh Cooper departed early for the NFL. Muschamp hired David Cutcliffe acolyte (and former Florida OC) Kurt Roper to turn around the offense; it’s worth noting that the Florida O bottomed out with the Muschamp-Roper pairing just a few years ago.

Defensive stalwart Skai Moore will miss the season due to a neck injury, and Muschamp is also tasked with resuscitating a feeble defense – it’s perhaps fairer to expect that he’ll turn things around on that side of the ball fairly quickly, as he’s been a good defensive coordinator and has had good defenses as a head coach. In any case, expect a tough transition year for South Carolina as they look ahead in the post-Spurrier era.


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