THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
Michigan (2-0) vs Xavier (2-0) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| WHEN | 9 pm ET, Friday |
| LINE | Michigan -6 (KenPom) |
| TV |
BTN PBP: Jeff Levering Analyst: Seth Davis |
Right: Xavier's alternate mascot is somewhat less than terrifying.
THE US
Michigan is still looking to narrow down their rotation, but between Xavier having a legit big man and Zak Irvin still working his way back to 100%, it's doubtful that happens tonight.
We could see a change in the starting lineup, however. Mark Donnal and Kam Chatman have been starting at the five and the four, respectively, but they may be replaced by Ricky Doyle and Irvin. John Beilein has also mentioned DJ Wilson as a player he's considering starting, though that seems less likely.
THE THEM
Xavier is far and away Michigan's toughest test to date, ranking 37th in KenPom after making it to their fifth Sweet Sixteen in the last eight years in 2014-15. Since taking over for Sean Miller when he left for Arizona in 2009-10, Chris Mack has done a great job keeping the program on the course Miller set.
Let's get this out of the way: Xavier no longer has the Stain Train, which is good for Michigan's chances in this game and bad for my enjoyment of college basketball in general.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
The Musketeers still boast some players with whom you're probably familiar. Matt Stainbrook's replacement at center is 6'10", 238-pound junior Jalen Reynolds, a Detroit native who got plenty of run alongside Stainbrook last season. Reynolds is an excellent rebounder on both ends, a strong rim protector, and an efficient finisher at the basket (62% 2P in 14-15). Michigan's best hope at limiting his effectiveness is to get him into foul trouble; he averaged 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes last year and has seven in two games this season. Backup James Farr is even bigger and can make a similar impact on the glass, but he doesn't possess Reynolds' offensive skill.
The focal point of the offense is one Trevon Bluiett, a skilled 6'6" sophomore wing who John Beilein pursued with gusto during the recruiting process. Bluiett hit 50% of his twos and 33% of his threes as a freshman; so far this season he's showing signs of a more consistent outside shot, and he's hitting the boards a little more, as well. Bluiett doesn't create a ton of offense for others, but he does a solid job working to get his own shots.
The primary setup man is 6'2" guard Myles Davis (so close), who's taken over point duties after functioning mostly as a spot-up shooter last year. He shot 38% from beyond the arc, and while he's not a great two-point finisher, he gets to the line frequently; in this young season, he's also dished out seven assists against a lone turnover. Joining Davis in the backcourt is former Indiana transfer Remy Abell, who's off to a rough start this year (3/13 FG) after posting 55/41/71 shooting splits last season; his shot should come around before long.
6'6" redshirt freshman Edmond Sumner, a recruit out of Detroit Country Day who finished just outside the composite top-100, rounds out the starting lineup. He's scored in every fashion so far this season, including a 13/20 mark from the FT line through two games, but has been turnover-prone. Sophomore wing JP Macura, a decent off-the-bench shooter with some turnover issues of his own last year, has been on fire as the primary perimeter backup, hitting 8/14 FGs and 14/14 FTs in two games.
This game poses two major threats to Michigan's defense: the obvious one on the interior, as M's thus-far-underwhelming centers take on a true post threat, and the less obvious issue of having to guard multiple multifaceted perimeter scorers with a group of Wolverine wings that hasn't been stellar on that end this year.
THE KEYS
Get out in transition. Despite playing two teams in the 150 range on KenPom (Not That Miami and Mizzou), Xavier has a turnover rate hovering just under 20%. Michigan, meanwhile, is in the top 15 nationally after forcing a 24.4% turnover rate through their first two games—obvious opponent caveat applies here, too. The Wolverines have put an increased emphasis on jumping passing lanes and that's helped get the offense going; if they can have similar success against the Musketeers, they should be in good shape.
Survive inside. Looks, it's unlikely Michigan's bigs are going to keep Reynolds from producing, but if they can at least minimize his impact on the offensive boards, that'll prevent some easy buckets on putbacks and kickout threes; Reynolds is a skilled passer from the post. I'm guessing Ricky Doyle will see a much bigger workload tonight; this doesn't look like a good matchup at all for Donnal, who struggles with stronger opponents, or DJ Wilson playing the five.
Attack the basket. One way Michigan can slow Xavier's bigs: get them in foul trouble. Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton have done well going to the hoop so far this season, and Aubrey Dawkins has shown flashes of a rounded-out offensive game. LeVert has looked good running the high pick-and-roll in limited opportunities so far; getting Reynolds on the move and attacking him near the basket can help the team at both ends if he starts picking up cheap fouls. This should be a game where Michigan is happy with the officiating adjustments that have refs calling games much tighter so far.
If Zak Irvin can get going, that would also be a huge boon to Michigan's chances, but we'll have to see on that front; he didn't look very comfortable in his first minutes back on the floor against Elon on Monday. It'd be great if he could knock down his open looks; I wouldn't expect him to be attacking the basket like he did down the stretch last season.
THE HALFTIME SHOW
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 6.
If Michigan can continue to be disruptive on defense, they should be able to keep pace and then some with their outside shooting prowess and ability to turn steals into easy points. I think this game comes down to whose outside shots are falling; that should favor the Wolverines.