Preview: Penn State 2015

Essentials

Overview

Penn State and James Franklin looked dead for the foreseeable future after an opening-week loss to Temple in which the Owls picked up ten sacks, one of them on a two-man rush. But Temple turned out be pretty damn good and Penn State turned out to be all right themselves.

The Nittany Lions throw up offensive clunkers on the regular and occasionally get shredded on the ground, but a relentless pass rush and Saquon Barkley generally have the Nittany Lions in position for Franklin to do something bogglingly dumb at the end of the game. Prepare for a good hard fought competition with no complaints about referees from either side!

Run Offense vs Penn State

This looks grim after Michigan did little other than break a couple of De'Veon Smith runs against Indiana. Anthony Zettel (sigh) and Austin Johnson comprise one of the top DT pairings in the country. They did the above to Northwestern whenever singled and crushed inside zone. With Michigan neither overpowering one on one or particularly good at comboing through DTs they project to meet a similar fate.

But other than those two guys Penn State isn't great. Carl Nassib, their elite pass rusher, will pop big lanes open as he goes for the QB. Without Nyeem Wartman-White their LBs are a little small and inexperienced. Their advanced stats all hover around average nationally; the schedule-adjusted ones place PSU just 37th nationally against the run.

After getting blown up a bunch early Northwestern found a rhythm by running power outside the tackles and finished with 6.3 YPC. Meanwhile Illinois got crushed but Maryland ripped off 5 YPC and OSU 6.3; PSU shut down Indiana but that was without both Sudfeld and Howard and should probably be ignored. Ace sees a way forward:

after I initially though Michigan would have to lean heavily on the pass to win this game, Northwestern's growing success with power eventually had me believing the opposite. If they can simply seal off the playside DT—not always that simple, of course—there's usually room on the edge, and the linebackers aren't good at closing space and making tackles in those gaps.

Easier said than done about the DTs but power does generally remove them from doing much more than pursuing, and Penn State is weak on the edge.

Whether Michigan can exploit that is an open question. Michigan's tailbacks miss holes; the linemen outside of Cole and (until the last couple weeks) Glasgow are mostly competent but often inconsistent. It's pretty easy to see Michigan target the wrong defenders and give too much ground and generally eat dirt for big chunks of the game. On the other hand, this might be a situation in which Michigan's diverse collection of misdirection plays puts a linebacker in the wrong gap and finds a guy with glorious hair loping through the secondary.

It's probably too much to ask for regular third and two, but a chunk play or three wouldn't go amiss.

KEY MATCHUP: PULLING MICHIGAN GUARDS against GETTING HUNG UP WHEN DUDES SLANT INSIDE oh and also MICHIGAN RUNNING BACKS for pants sake PLEASE FOLLOW SAID GUARDS

[Hit THE JUMP for MOUNT HACKENBERG IS SET TO BLOW]

Pass Offense vs Penn State

nassib is in ur base

Batten down the hatches. Penn State enters with the nation's top adjusted sack rate, with walk-on(!) Carl Nassib leading the way with an astounding 15.5. Nobody else has more than 5, but six guys have more than two. When Nassib gets stopped a lot of Penn State guys get through anyway. Michigan's pass protection, which has been up and down, is about to get a major test.

Given the results when Michigan went up against the Big Ten's other elite pass rusher not named Bosa, Yannick Ngakoue, there is reason for concern. Mason Cole has become an excellent run blocker as a true sophomore; Ngakoue got him two or three times as Cole had five protection minuses in a game with a lot fewer opportunities than Michigan's most recent. Michigan's most recent, meanwhile, saw them put up a not-great-Bob number against a defense that's not on PSU's level, to say the least.

When Michigan can protect Rudock there should be opportunities. Penn State's linebackers are iffy after the loss of Nyeem Wartman-White for the year in the opener; S/CB hybrid Jordan Lucas has also been lost. Penn State was repeatedly hit up the middle of their cover two in Northwestern's version of the #buttzone.

I might expect a bunch of max protect play action with two or three guys in a route.

Penn State's corners are fine, neither great nor terrible. They won't leave things as blitheringly wide open but with so much zone it's not really about individual matchups but about how those guys move around. Rudock is going to need to move guys with his eyes and be as decisive as he's been the past couple weeks to continue his renaissance.

Speaking of Rudock, please keep doing that.

KEY MATCHUP:JAKE RUDOCK versus MY 100% DEAD CERTAINTY THAT HE WILL NEVER COMPLETE A PASS OF 30 OR MORE YARDS what do you mean what about last week LAST WEEK DOESN'T COUNT WHEN IT COMES TO THIS 100% DEAD CERTAINTY.

Run Defense vs Penn State

On the one hand, Penn State's offensive line is a total mess. On the other, Saquon Barkley. Barkley, a freshman, is averaging 6.3 yards a carry despite missing games against Army and Indiana; he ripped OSU for 194 on just 26 carries.

Recent outings have been more modest. Over the last three weeks against Maryland, Illinois, and Northwestern Barkley has averaged 4.1 YPC. This is because…

Barkley combines strength and balance with an excellent jump-cut, which makes it tough to corral him in the backfield unless multiple linemen break free (which happens a decent amount). He's really tough to bring down in open space. All it takes from him is a subtle cut, like the one he puts on Anthony Walker for a touchdown out of the wildcat, and he's off, because you have to hit him square to take him down:

Barkley had two touchdowns, both out of the wildcat, and the second was even more impressive (I'd already cut too many videos by that point). He's was also PSU's primary target for screens in this game, and he's effective when he gets any blocking help—which, again, isn't always the case.

Barkley's quick cuts and ability to get out of trouble are excellent antidotes to the poison that infects the entire Penn State offense: the line. Still reeling after sanctions, the revolving door they have going at various points is reminiscent of Michigan's 2013—and minus Barkley the results would be too. Ace:

You might be lulled into feeling sorry for Barkley at times. He has to work very hard to produce yardage while waiting for those occasional runs on which PSU either blocks well or throws rock to the defenses scissors. Between blown pickups, getting knocked into the backfield, and false starts, I had negative notes down for every one of PSU's starting linemen. Palmer and Gaia stood out as especially bad; nobody stood out as particularly good.

Penn State adds a lack of a dual-threat tight end to their problems. They have 2014 AJ Williams in Brent Wilkerson. He has two targets. Their other two tight ends don't block well at all.

Meanwhile on the Michigan end of things, this is a very reassuring thing to hear:

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Penn State mostly ran inside zone, split zone, and the occasional power. Brian asked me to check if they ran any zone stretches since Michigan struggled so badly with them against Indiana; they ran none.

I have no doubt that Penn State hurriedly inserted outside zone into their playbook once they saw the Indiana tape, but with an offensive line that's struggling so badly their attempts to replicate Indiana's success are as likely as not to backfire.

Penn State is also a very slow team, which is welcome news for a defensive line that is suddenly thin. The ways in which Indiana bludgeoned Michigan are generally not available to the Nittany Lions.

Given the above Michigan should bounce back handily. The line was still very good against everything except the stretch last week until their legs were well and truly gone. Neither of those issues should recur, and the PSU DL is a massive step down from Indiana. Barkley will pop a couple frustrating runs, but it's going to be third and long a lot.

KEY MATCHUP: SAQUON BARKLEY versus FIRST THAT GUY IN THE BACKFIELD and then A MICHIGAN LINEBACKER WHO MIGHT NOT DO AS WELL AS WE MIGHT HOPE and hopefully not A MICHIGAN SAFETY

Pass Defense vs Penn State

is it just me or does Hackenberg have creepy-ass eyes

A battered and angryChristian Hackenberg has spent the season alternating between setting his draft status on fire and reminding people why he had it in the first place.

While things toned down a little bit after Temple put up ten sacks against Penn State in the opener, he is still liable to get crushed any time he drops back to pass. PSU is 121st in adjusted sack rate. Hackenberg hits the turf on more than ten percent of his dropbacks, which is a staggering number. He's hurried almost half the time and is showing clear signs of Devin Gardner Disease. Ace:

Hackenberg can still make those throws that make NFL scouts drool, but far too often he makes terrible decisions, and only a part of that can be blamed on the offensive line. …He'll also sail a few throws and turf the occasional screen. The bad outweighed the good in this one, but Hackenberg is difficult to predict. He does seem to try for the big play too often, even when the situation dictates he should take the safe throw.

Earlier this year he threw a screen so poorly it ended up on my twitter timeline a half-dozen times.

But when Hackenberg does get protection he has a big arm and a couple of receivers who can go get deep balls. Chris Godwin is the most frequently targeted. He is reminiscent of Junior Hemingway, a big, powerful target with excellent body control.

Most of Hackenberg's big plays this year have been similar fades down the sideline on which the wide receiver has to do some work—he will occasionally put one in there Connor Cook style, but he's not as accurate. He does a lot of punt 'n' pray. DaeSean Hamilton is similar to Godwin, maybe a little faster, maybe a bit less mean.

Underneath things are erratic. Hackenberg completes just 54% of his passes and nobody past the top two targets has a catch rate over 50%. Meanwhile Godwin and Hamilton are not the kind of guys who are going to escape from Michigan's DBs on hitches and slants consistently.  Penn State's seemingly infinite stable of tight ends has crapped out into not much, with true freshman Mike Gesicki the most prominent. Gesicki drops a ton of balls and has a 41% catch rate on mostly underneath throws—Jake Butt he ain't.

Michigan's half of this came out of the Indiana game slightly battered. Nevertheless, this looks like a matchup they should win handily. Their adjusted sack rate is 20th and they're just outside the top ten in the two main S&P+ passing stats. With limited exceptions Michigan has been exception at defending Penn State's bread and butter; with PSU ending up in a bunch of passing downs they should be able to deploy their stunt packages to good effect.

KEY MATCHUP: CORNERBACKS contesting FADE ROUTES DOWN THE SIDELINE. Michigan has been very good at defending fade routes this year but slip-ups do happen, as Jeremy Clark discovered last week. Keeping the number of punts that turn into 40 yard plays down to one or two will go a long way towards winning.

Special Teams

This has been a struggle for Penn State. They've split time between punters but of late the vast bulk of them have gone to Daniel Pasquariello, who's averaging a meh 40 yards a kick. With just 8 inside the 20 and two touchbacks, on 43 attempts that's mostly Pasquariello leaving normal punts short. About a third of PSU punts are returned for 5 yards a pop, so at least coverage is good.

Kicker Joey Julius, colloquially known as "big toe," has been iffy. While he's hit 10/12 field goals his long on the year is 40 and he had two extra points blocked against Illinois, bringing him to four missed XPs on the year. He was recently replaced by Tyler Davis, who is 3/3 on the year.

Penn State has gotten little out of their return units and has given up two kickoff return TDs. Add it up and PSU is 91st in ST efficiency.

Michigan's dropped from first to 15th thanks to return touchdowns the last couple weeks but should have an advantage in the absence of a similar big play that PSU has given little indication they are likely to make. Blake O'Neill versus Pasquariello should be a source of hidden yardage to the good; Kenny Allen has been consistent for much of the year.

KEY MATCHUP: MATE PUT THE BALL THROUGH THE BIG STICKS NO WORRIES

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Penn State suddenly implements stretch plays and even their OL can make them work.
• The Nittany Lion DL goes through Michigan's OL like it is a tree in Anthony Zettel's way.
• Anything does or does not look like targeting.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Hackenberg gets into Hackenberg On Tilt mode.
• A punting battle slides to Michigan's favor thanks to a bunch of hidden yards.
• Rudock is still Cyborg Terminator Rudock even against a good defense.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 4 (Baseline 5; +1 for Oh God Two Years Ago What Was That Even, +1 for Ugly DL/OL Matchup Inbound, –1 for Other DL/OL Matchup Will Be Equally Ugly, –1 for Cyborg Terminator Rudock I BELIEVE, +1 for I Don't Actually Believe Because That Would Doom Him, –1 for Hackenberg Implosion Potential: High, –1 for Puntoff Favors M)

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline 5; +1 for Set Up That Division Title Game Next Weekend Thx, +1 for Losing To James Franklin Is Kind Of Like Losing To Hoke, +1 for NY6 On The Radar, +1 for We're So Close)

Loss will cause me to... welp, sometimes when James Franklin lets the clock run down at the end of the game and calls the fake safety flea-flicker you end up watching a receiver sky over the entirety of your defense because God is very unhappy.

Win will cause me to... IGNORE RATIONALITY FOR PERIOD OF 164 HOURS LET'S GOOO

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

This is going to be ugly. PSU's line is not set up to deal with the weakness Michigan displayed yesterday and they are terrible at picking up stunts. PSU throws a ton of WR screens; Jabrill Peppers exists. Hackenberg should be under siege. Barkley will probably break some moderate length runs when Michigan gives him a crack, or half of a crack. Hackenberg will probably hit a few shots downfield. But the Michigan defense reasserts itself this weekend.

On the other side of the ball, probably something similar. Michigan's run game appears to be going backwards as the year progresses and they're unlikely to hold up consistently against this defensive line. Michigan's pass protection was iffy against Maryland and will remain so in this game. If Rudock gets happy feet because nobody can protect him or reverts to his previous indecisive self in the face of a defense that is a tad bit better than Rutgers and Indiana, it'll be tough for Michigan to move the ball any more consistently than PSU does.

Michigan does have the #buttzone and should have a field position edge against one of the country's weaker special teams units. That is enough of an edge to scrape one out.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Jake Butt goes over 100 yards.
• Michigan intercepts Hackenberg twice.
• Michigan tailbacks do zilch.
• Michigan, 18-13