Previously: Hoops Preview Podcast, MGoRadio 1.6 (wsg John Gasaway), Point Guards,Wings Part I (LeVert, Dawkins, Irvin), Wings Part II (MAAR, Chatman, Robinson, Wagner)
A sign of things to come?
In Jordan Morgan, Mitch McGary, and Jon Horford, Michigan had the good fortune of rolling with a deep and productive group of big men for a couple years. Last year's trio of Ricky Doyle, Mark Donnal, and Max Bielfeldt lacked the experience, skill, and physicality of that group, and there was a noticeable effect on Michigan's performance at both ends of the court.
While Bielfeldt was allowed to move on to a big-desperate Indiana squad for his graduate year, Doyle and Donnal should be better players as sophomores, and DJ Wilson provides hope that Michigan will get more from its bench up front this season. If there's a hole in this lineup, it's at center, but Doyle displayed enough potential last year that this position can quickly turn into a strength if a viable backup emerges.
Ricky Doyle
Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog
Year: Sophomore
Measurables: 6'9", 250
Base Stats: 18.2 MPG, 6.1 PPG, 61/0/59 2P/3P/FT%, 3.2 RPG, 12 blocks
Key Advanced Metrics: 17.9% usage, 117.4 ORating, 10.4 OReb%, 11.9 DReb%, 55.5 FT Rate, 2.6 block %
If you listened to the season preview podcast or the recent hoops-centric MGoRadio, you know the writers of this blog are very excited about Doyle. A series of unforeseen events—Mitch McGary's suspension and subsequent departure, Jon Horford's transfer, Mark Donnal looking overwhelmed—caused him to go from unheralded recruit to starting center for a Big Ten title hopeful, and while Michigan's season didn't go as planned, Doyle rose to the challenge better than anyone could've expected.
[Hit THE JUMP.]
While Doyle isn't a dominant big man, he's a solid one, and he flashed more skill than we're used to seeing from Michigan centers under John Beilein. Doyle has great feet; while he wasn't a particularly efficient post-up scorer as a freshman, there's a lot of potential in his drop step and baby hook—post-ups won't ever be a significant part of Beilein's offense, but Doyle can go to work down low if need be.
Doyle's biggest offensive contributes comes in the pick-and-roll, which should once again be of paramount importance to Michigan's offense after injuries curtailed its usage much of last season. This is impressive efficiency for anyone, let alone a freshman:
Despite his size, Doyle exhibited soft hands from day one, which made him reliable on the pick-and-roll by the end of the year. Though it accounted for just over 16.4% of his usage, the freshman scored 1.286 points per possession as the roll man, according to Synergy Sports.
In general, Doyle finished really well; he hit 61% of his shots—70% at the rim—and managed to draw a lot of fouls, as well. It'd be nice for him to improve on his 59% free-throw shooting, but at least he gets to the line. He also did solid work on the offensive boards and took good care of the basketball.
Doyle showed plenty of potential as a defender, as well. His quick feet make him easily M's best big man at the hard hedge, which is Beilein's preferred method of defending the high screen; Doyle can put a lot of pressure on the ballhandler and recover to the roll man in a hurry. He also held up the best in the post against talented opposing big men last year; while Donnal and Max Bielfeldt looked overwhelmed, Doyle held his own and kept his foul rate low—with Doyle looking at a bigger minutes load this year, that last bit is critical.
Doyle has his limitations on defense, though one is overblown. His defensive rebounding rate, which was well below that of M's other bigs and hanging around in normal point guard territory, is almost certainly the product of scheme; Beilein had Doyle focus on boxing out and sealing off his man while allowing a guard swoop in for the rebound, which is why Derrick Walton's defensive rebounding rate looks like that of a power forward. If Doyle doesn't start grabbing more boards himself, there's cause for concern, but I haven't seen any major reason to think he can't do that.
The biggest area for improvement in Doyle's game is conditioning. Both on a macro (he wore down late in the season) and micro (he looked and played tired after 20-25 minutes on the court) scale, he wasn't ready to carry the full load of a starting center—understandable given the circumstances heading into the season. Camp Sanderson should have Doyle ready to play closer to 30 minutes per game; if it also adds some bounce in Doyle's step so he can block some more shots, that'd be a significant bonus. Early returns are good, says John Beilein:
“He came in country strong. He didn’t lift a lot of weights but he was strong walking in the door. I think one of his bigger issues was to change the muscle mass and make it more productive. His lean muscle mass has gone way up. He’s probably in the best condition he’s been in. He’s far from a finished product but I like what I see.”
It would also be nice if Doyle didn't catch seemingly every bug going around campus this year. "Immune system" is high on the needs improvement list.
Most big men take a lot of time to round into form—just look at Jordan Morgan's career—so it's early yet to expect Doyle to be among the top centers in the conference. He got off to a strong start last year, though, and looks to be on the career arc of a future all-conference player. He should take full control of the center job this year and be a solid starter.
Now, can we settle on Doyle's nickname? I'm a strong proponent of The Big Dripper over Big Sweat and Varsity Sweater, but I can very much get on board with Slick Rick. This seems like a good time for a poll.
Vote or die.
Mark Donnal
Fuller
Year: Redshirt Sophomore
Measurables: 6'9", 240
Base Stats: 10.7 MPG, 3.4 PPG, 57/37/70 2P/3P/FT%, 2.1 RPG, 10 blocks
Key Advanced Metrics: 17.0% usage, 119.6 ORating, 10.2 OReb%, 16.1 DReb%, 3.8 block %
There's no other way to put it: Donnal was a huge disappointment in 2014-15. After getting a mountain of practice hype during his redshirt year behind Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford, Donnal got the first shot at the starting job and looked overmatched. The stat lines above, impressive on their face, are remarkably misleading; against competition with a pulse, Donnal's numbers fell off a cliff.
The number that points to Donnal's struggles the most is his foul rate: he committed 6.4 fouls per 40 minutes in all games—in other words, he'd foul out the average game in around 30 minutes—and against top-50 KenPom opponents that figure rose to an obscene 8.4/40. While Donnal displayed some shot-blocking prowess, he simply couldn't cut it as a post defender, and until he takes a big leap forward in that regard he won't be more than a bit player. Remember that game when Northwestern's Alex Olah looked like Hakeem Olajuwon? Michigan would like to avoid a repeat.
The solution to this may be food. Lots and lots of food.
Both Donnal and Wilson are in the same spot, physically. Donnal saw his weight drop into the 220s at times last season, as he struggled with the chore of bulking his frame up and keeping the weight on throughout the course of an entire season.
He's at 240 now, and is following a strict diet plan put forth by Michigan's nutrition staff. At the moment, he's trying to consume four or five meals per day and roughly 3,100 calories.
That should help, at least. It probably won't solve everything.
The added strength will also benefit Donnal on the other end of the court, where his statistical efficiency masked hesitant play—going up strong around the basket, in particular, wasn't something Donnal did with any consistency. He was good at attaining second chances, but he didn't do much with them.
It's still far too early to write Donnal off; as noted in Doyle's section, big men take time, and Donnal was both young and undersized last year. Plus, Donnal has some tantalizing tools to work with, most notably his jumper—he's a center with three-point range, and in a Beilein offense that could be quite a weapon. Donnal just needs to bring the rest of his game up to par so he can be deployed with regularity.
If Donnal suddenly proves capable of defending in the post and finishing putbacks against quality centers, he'll have a major role on this team; think of the shooting potential of a lineup like Spike-Caris-Dawkins-Irvin-Donnal. For that to happen, though, Donnal first and foremost has to stay on the floor. When he's on it, he has to look physically capable. If that doesn't happen, Michigan will turn to...
DJ Wilson
Fuller
Year: Redshirt Freshman
Measurables: 6'10", 240
The unknown quantity. DJ Wilson arrived on campus last year as a promising, rail-thin freshman; he looked completely lost on the court during his combined 24 minutes in five early-season games before sustaining a knee injury and taking a much-needed redshirt. The DJ Wilson that showed up this fall looks quite different:
Proud of this guy, by far the most productive red-shirt year I've ever seen in my career! #GoBluepic.twitter.com/KojCj4QPDY
— Jon Sanderson (@CampSanderson) October 26, 2015
That is a DJ Wilson who can play the five; he's been practicing at both the five and the four this season and should see time at both spots, though his path to playing time is much clearer at the former.
What he'll bring to that spot remains to be seen. Wilson's came out of high school billed as a solid shooter with some range, an impressive ballhandler for a tall guy, a decent rebounder, a potentially impactful shot-blocker... and a major project.
The "project" bit was very clear last year. If Wilson can bang down low and know where he's supposed to be on both ends of the court, however, he could become an impact player in a hurry. Like Donnal, he's a big who can stretch the floor, and he's got more potential than Donnal on the finishing end of pick-and-rolls. At a lanky 6'10" with natural shot-blocking instincts, he's got the most potential as a rim protector of anyone on the roster, and Michigan could really use one of those—especially in the wake of the NCAA expanding the block/charge circle last season.
For now, Wilson is the biggest unknown who's likely to see extensive time this season. Video evidence of his ability is limited to his sub-half-hour of playing time last season and this rather tantalizing video posted by Alejandro Zuniga from last night's open scrimmage, which unfortunately took place during MGoRadio:
DJ Wilson is looking good. More muscle weight, same great length and athleticism. pic.twitter.com/h63xn1Japt
— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) November 2, 2015
Wilson confidently moved the ball, made a decisive cut, and hit a face-up jumper over a big man (albeit a freshman big in Moritz Wagner). If we see that often this season, watch out.
For us to see that side of things, Wilson must prove he can handle the physical toll of playing the post in the Big Ten. If Wilson keeps doing what the Daily's Simon Kaufman wrote he did during last night's scrimmage, he's well on his way:
Wilson looked at ease with the ball in his hands at the top of the key and used quick passes to help facilitate his team’s offense. He was stronger down low, confidently posting up on offense and boxing his man out on defense. He also didn’t shy away from shooting from the perimeter, knocking down a handful of 3s over the course of the night.
Fingers crossed. If Donnal doesn't improve dramatically, Wilson's development could be the difference between a good season and a great one.
Moritz Wagner is also a possible backup center. He's covered in the backup wings section; we expect him to redshirt.