THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
Michigan (12-8, 5-3 B1G) vs Nebraska (12-7, 4-3) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| WHEN | 7 pm ET, Tuesday |
| LINE | Michigan -3 (KenPom) |
| TV |
ESPN PBP: Mike Tirico Analyst: Dan Dakich |
THE US
John Beilein hinted during his Monday presser that we could see a shakeup of the starting lineup:
Playing its second game without LeVert, Michigan used the same starting lineup of Walton, Albrecht, Irvin, Doyle and Aubrey Dawkins that it fielded against Rutgers last week.
That could change against the Huskers. Asked Monday if his shadowy comment about being "pretty banged up right now" could equate to a change in the starting lineup, Beilein responded, "There could be, yes."
Given how little Spike Albrecht played down the stretch against Wisconsin—and how well Muhammed-Ali Abdur-Rahkman performed in his stead—it wouldn't be surprising for MAAR to get his second career start.
THE STAKES
This is essentially a must-win if Michigan wants to keep their already thin tournament hopes alive. They need to hold serve in their five remaining home games and steal at least one on the road to have a realistic shot of playing their way in during the conference tournament.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 3 | Benny Parker | Jr. | 5'9, 172 | 75 | 10 | No | ||||||||||||
| Almost nonexistent usage. Solid shooter, knack for getting to line. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 5 | Terran Pettaway | Jr. | 6'6, 215 | 87 | 34 | No | ||||||||||||
| Extreme high volume shooter, decent passer, makes his share of tough shots. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 31 | Shavon Shields | Jr. | 6'7, 221 | 89 | 29 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Also takes a ton of shots. Advanced midrange game, struggling from beyond arc. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 35 | Walter Pitchford | Jr. | 6'10, 237 | 68 | 13 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
| Stretch four type only shooting 31% from three. Solid defensive rebounder. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 21 | Leslee Smith | Sr. | 6'8, 255 | 23 | 16 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Working way back from ACL injury. Good rebounder, active defender. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 11 | Tarin Smith | Fr. | 6'2, 175 | 47 | 17 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Wing who's much better attacking basket than shooting from outside. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 0 | Tai Webster | So. | 6'4, 199 | 25 | 16 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Turnover-prone tall PG. Decent finisher, poor shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 12 | Moses Abraham | Sr. | 6'9, 252 | 18 | 16 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Good rebounder, decent finisher, quite foul-prone. All-Biblical Name First-Team. | |||||||||||||||||||
THE RESUME
Nebraksa has a couple quality home wins this year, a double-overtime triumph over #33 Cincinnati and Tuesday's two-point victory over Michigan State—the latter had added difficulty due to Walter Pitchford's early ejection for elbowing Matt Costello in the face. Their only road win on the season, however, came at #134 Florida State; while they took #60 Rhode Island to overtime they were handled easily by Iowa, Wisconsin, and even #155 Hawaii.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Nebraska's creativity plot from our own Alex Cook says about all you need to know about the Husker offense:
Wings Terran Pettaway and Shavon Shields are first and sixth in the Big Ten, respectively, in both usage rate and shot percentage, and most of the time those two are creating their own shots. As a team, Nebraska is 310th in the country in assists/FGM—just 46% of their buckets are assisted. Starting point guard Benny Parker has a usage rate of 9.8% in conference play. The point guard is practically invisible in the Nebraska offense; in related news, the Nebraska offense is really struggling.
That's because Pettaway and Shields can only be so efficient while shouldering most of the offensive load. Pettaway posts impressive numbers from the field—51% on twos, 35% on threes—given the high volume and often difficult nature of his shots, but he's lost his touch at the free throw line this season, shooting just 66% from the stripe. Shields shoots 54% inside the arc and boasts an impressive midrange game, but he's just a 22% three-point shooter. Both can be a little sloppy with the ball, too. Each is liable to put up major points, but they don't always do so in a way condusive to winning.
Stretch four Walter Pitchford is the team's third option; he'll play tonight even though he was kicked out of Tuesday's MSU game. Pitchford's regression this season is one of the main reasons why their offense has bogged down—his shooting splits have dropped from 54/41/69 (2P/3P/FT%) to 49/31/44, and he's also turning the ball over twice as often. While he remains a strong presence on defense, he'll need to find his shot if Nebraska wants to break out of a season-long funk.
Wide-bodied forward Leslee Smith is playing in just his sixth game (and second start) after returning from a torn ACL that many expected would cost him the entire season. Smith posted great rebounding numbers, showed solid potential in the post, and played active defense last season; in limited action this year, it looks like he's still getting his legs under him.
The Huskers will go without normal starting forward David Rivers, who's out for a stretch with a knee injury. Backup big Moses Abraham, a solid rebounder, should see an uptick in minutes. Guards Tarin Smith and Tai Webster, both of whom are decent around the rim and not so much as jump shooters, will also see action.
THE TEMPO-FREE
We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only.
This has all the makings of an ugly game. Nebraska boasts the second-best defense in the conference; they force a lot of turnovers and their length across the board makes it tough to finish inside the arc. Michigan, of course, has had some difficulty putting the ball in the basket.
On the other end, the Huskers have the second-worse Big Ten offense, in large part because they really lack outside shooting—they're barely above 30% from beyond the arc on the year. Their astonishingly low offensive rebounding rate doesn't help, either; they clearly eschew second-chances in order to limit any opponent transition opportunities.
THE KEYS
Zone them to death. It stands to reason that running zone defense against a terrible outside shooting team would be a good idea, and that very much holds up when it comes to Nebraska; as Dylan points out, the Huskers are among the Big Ten's worst teams at scoring against the zone. Michigan tends to be more aggressive when they play zone, and against a team that doesn't cede many transition opportunities, that could be a way for them to get on the run for what should be a few valuable easy buckets in a low-scoring game.
Bombs away. Derrick Walton has found his touch from beyond the arc of late, and I think he's got a chance to go off in this one. He'll be matched up against a 5'9" point guard in Benny Parker, and while the Huskers have limited opponents to just 30% shooting from three-point range, they're 303rd nationally in 3PA/FGA—usually, the latter is more indicative of strong perimeter defense than the former.
Collapse on Shields. Shavon Shields is a gifted scorer inside the arc, but he's really struggling with his outside shot. Given how little outside shooting Nebraska has on their roster, Michigan can afford to clamp down on Shields with multiple defenders when he threatens to drive. Limit his scoring and the Wolverines should come away victors.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 3.
It's not likely to be pretty, but Michigan's new-found zone acumen should come in quite handy against this Nebraska offense.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Dylan takes a closer look at Michigan's success running both the 2-3 and 1-3-1. The 2-3, especially, has been a pleasant surprise. Dylan also relays that Michigan is expected to offer three-star 2015 center Levi Cook; there's room to take a 2015 prospect, five-star Jaylen Brown is very much a longshot, and you might have noticed M could use some help on the interior.