Preview: Wisconsin

THE ESSENTIALS

THE SCARILY ON-POINT EMAIL

From a reader, who attached the photo on the right:

Bo Ryan is some sort of evil immortal god, who took the identity, for a time of a masochistic German psychiatrist, Johann Christian Reil, who was into, among other things, pouring hot wax on mental patients, placing them in tubs of live eels, and playing the cat organ.

Yeah, this checks out.

THE STAKES

Beating Wisconsin would qualify as an upset, even at home. Should Michigan pull it off, they'd move ahead of the Badgers by virtue of having an extra win in hand, and could take first place in the Big Ten if Indiana falls at Ohio State on Sunday.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

Wisconsin has lost just two games this year, one at home to Duke on a night when the Blue Devils looks unbeatable, the other on the road to... Rutgers. In fairness, the latter occurred while Frank Kaminsky was briefly sidelined, but it's still one of the strangest results of this season.

The Badgers have tallied nine wins against top-100 KenPom squads, including a 13-point neutral court handling of #10 Oklahoma. Eight of their wins have come by 20 points or more, including Tuesday's 82-50 thrashing of #44 Iowa. They've ranked in between #4 and #6 on KenPom the entire season, and currently sit at #5.

In short, they're really good.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Welp (via UMHoops):

Yes, six of the top seven most efficient offensive players in Big Ten play are on Wisconsin. The Badger Death Machine is fully operational; their 122.5 adjusted offensive efficiency is second nationally and not far off Michigan's best-in-KenPom-history mark from last season.

As is the norm under Bo Ryan, Wisconsin doesn't count on many minutes from their reserves, and that's become even more the case with normal starting point guard Traevon Jackson sidelined due to a fractured foot. While Jackson is often cited as the emotional center of the Badgers, replacement Bronson Koenig may actually be an upgrade. Koenig doesn't take as many possessions as Jackson, allowing extra touches for the exceptionally efficient scorers around him, and while he doesn't dish out quite as many assists he turns the ball over far less; he's also a superior outside shooter.

Josh Gasser is what he's always been: a lights-out spot-up shooter who otherwise stays out of the way. He also manages to get to the line pretty frequently, and he hits 85% of his free throws.

While Sam Dekker hasn't quite lived up to the five-star hype at Wisconsin, he's improved his game this season to become a frightening #2 option. Dekker has always been quite efficient when he goes to the basket, and now he's also knocking down 35% of his three-pointers while taking care of the ball and chipping in solid offensive rebounding.

Forward Nigel Hayes has also expanded his repertoire. The long-limbed sophomore is effective from just about anywhere now:

He's shooting 61% from two, 37% from three—after not attempting a triple last season—and improved his free-throw shooting from 59% last season to 70% on a healthy number of attempts. Hayes has also become a more productive rebounder on both ends. While the next guy in the lineup justifiably gets most of the focus, it's tough to see how Michigan is going to be able to match up with Hayes and Dekker on the wing; their size, rebounding, and inside/outside efficiency is going to be tough to handle.

Then there's Frank Kaminsky, the #1 player in the current KenPom Player of the Year standings. While taking on a very high percentage of the offense, Kaminsky is shooting 58% on twos and 40% on threes while getting to the line, where he shoots 76%, at a high clip. His assist rate in conference play compares favorably to both of Michigan's point guards, yet he also has the B1G's seventh-lowest turnover rate among qualifying players. He boasts the nation's #20 defensive rebounding rate and blocks a good number of shots. After Michigan got destroyed by Alex Olah last weekend, optimism isn't running high that they can limit Kaminsky.

The only reserve who sees a major role at this point is backup post Duje Dukan, a solid inside/outside scorer who's not as impactful on the boards as Kaminsky. As backup bigs go, he's a quality one.

THE TEMPO-FREE

We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only.

Four Factors explanation

Wisconsin's offense is outstanding in every regard save offensive rebounding. They've been unstoppable inside the arc, have gone from decent to great from beyond the arc in Big Ten play, and boast the nation's lowest turnover rate. There's no obvious weakness for Michigan to exploit; Rutgers was fortunate enough to face a Kaminsky-less Wisconsin, while Duke hounded Kaminsky by switching everything—something the Blue Devils could do with a lineup of long McDonald's All-Americans that doesn't seem easily replicable by a smaller Michigan squad that's currently throwing walk-ons into the rotation.

The Badger defense, on the other hand, has been far from world-beating, currently sitting eighth in the conference. They're severely limiting three-point attempts, as per usual, but they've been far too generous on two-pointers. Whether or not Michigan can take advantage of that is obviously in question.

THE KEYS

Find a way to the rim. If Michigan tries to win this by hoisting a bunch of contested threes over Wisconsin's pack-line defense, this one could get ugly in a hurry. M's guards are going to have to figure out a way to work inside the arc; if they can't get all the way to the basket, they need to at least be creating something besides difficult floaters.

Get creative. I'm not sure how Michigan will attempt to slow down Wisconsin's offense. The 1-3-1 seems out of the question—the Badgers take care of the ball better than any team in the country and everyone in their starting lineup is a good outside shooter. Both of those factors also make the 2-3 less than ideal, though that would at least allow M to send some help inside on Kaminsky and provide resistance when Dekker drives to the hoop. Going man-to-man seems to be asking for death by Kaminsky unless Ricky Doyle has a career night.

Walk-on Brey Turke. Totally worth a shot.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Wisconsin by 8.

Not in the face, please.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Due to injury trouble, Illinois will suit up a student manager tomorrow, so... it can get worse, I guess?