Preview: SMU

META: There was a board thread asking for a health update, so I posted one.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: You're all right by me, LB.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. %Min and %Poss figure are from this season now—yes, there will be a fair amount of noise in these numbers for a while. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open.

*returning starter

THE RESUME

Larry Brown's SMU squad is off to just a 7-3 start, but their losses are all of the quality variety: road games at #7 Gonzaga (by 16) and #51 Indiana (by six) and a home contest against #31 Arkansas (by six). They've tallied a pair of home victories against top-100 opponents: #64 Wyoming and #88 UC Santa Barbara, though they needed overtime to dispatch the latter. Outside of a win over #108 Eastern Washington, the rest of their triumphs have come against relative dregs.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

SMU has played without their best big, Markus Kennedy, due to academic issues, and while his first-semester suspension is technically over he's not likely to suit up tomorrow. Or, literally as I went to hit publish, news hit that he's traveling with the team. Last year he started at center and was a force on both ends, shooting 54% while taking 28% of the team's shots when he was on the floor, grabbing rebounds at a very high rate, and tallying excellent block and steal rates. If he's able to go, that probably is enough to swing the current KenPom line of Michigan -2 to SMU being the likely favorite, especially with M's struggles against quality post players.

In Kennedy's stead, center Yanick Moreira has taken on a major role and produced quite well. He's shooting nearly 62% from the field, finishing extremely well around the rim. In addition, he's posting very good rebounding rates on both ends of the floor and a block rate that sits just outside the top 100 nationally. Yes, an efficient 6'11" post is not exactly what Michigan wants to see right now, but that's what they're getting. 

The next player by usage rate is point guard Nic Moore, the rare high-usage point guard sniper. Moore's shooting splits are a remarkable 55/49/90, made even more impressive by his relatively high volume and the fact that almost all his two-point attempts are jump shots; his shot chart is pretty bananas:

Dude can shoot. His inability to finish at the rim is unsurprising given his 5'9" stature. Moore also doles out quite a few assists, though he's also pretty turnover-prone.

The shooting guard platoon of Ryan Manuel and Ben Emelogu doesn't actually do much shooting. Both have very low usage rates and are struggling from the field in limited attempts; Manuel, who's hitting just 42% of his twos, hasn't even attempted a three this year, while Emelogu is just 6/22 from beyond the arc—sadly, better than his 4/18 mark inside of it. These guys are out there for their defense. Manuel does have a knack for getting to the line, at least—he's attempted more free throws than field goals this season—while Emelogu is posting high block and steal rates.

Wing Keith Frazier takes over 60% of his shots from beyond the arc and hits those at a very respectable 38%; he's also got a pretty strong midrange game. While he doesn't hit the glass on offense, he's putting up a solid 16.3% defensive rebounding rate.

Forward Ben Moore is a strong offensive rebounder who squanders a lot of his putback opportunities; per hoop-math, he's shooting a paltry 18% on second-chance opportunities at the rim. Moore's hitting just 43% of his shots overall, all from inside the arc; he struggles to finish at the basket but does have the ability to knock down some midrange shots.

Backup center Cannen Cunningham is basically a poor man's version of Moreira. He's not nearly the finisher and offensive rebounder as SMU's starter, but he does well on the defensive boards and blocks his fair share of shots. Sophomore guard Sterling Brown comes off the bench after starting most of the team's games as a freshman; he rebounds very well for a guard and is adept when getting to the basket, but isn't hitting his jump shots so far this season.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Larry Brown, as Pistons fans might suspect, has coached SMU into a very strong defensive program. Opponents are shooting just 42% from two against them, and the Mustangs boast a top-50 block rate. They don't force many turnovers, but they keep opponents off the glass and avoid fouling too much. There's a potential area to exploit, however: SMU lets opponents hoist 45% of their field goals from three-point range, so Michigan could light up the scoreboard if their shots start falling again. (Please?)

The SMU offense mostly operates inside the arc, with Nic Moore and Keith Frazier the only rotation players who do much work beyond it. (I guess Emelogu, too, but he's not good at it.) They shoot the ball efficiently, get a good number of second chances, and work their way to the line at a high rate. Their weakness is turnovers: every rotation player except Manuel (16.9%) and Brown (19.2%) has a turnover rate over 20%.

THE KEYS

Make some dang shots. A humble request, and an obvious one, but a key nonetheless. SMU gives up a ton of looks from the outside, and with a 5'9" point guard out there somebody who can shoot is going to get clean looks. Given how well SMU defends at the rim, Michigan has little choice but to find their three-point shooting or this could get ugly.

Rip and run. One way Michigan can get themselves some good looks at the rim is to capitalize on SMU's turnovers. The Mustangs cough up the rock quite a bit and the Wolverines have maintained a decent turnover rate themselves. It's going to be tough to get to the hoop in the halfcourt, so getting out on the break would be quite helpful.

Help off the non-shooters. To get that transition game going, M can afford to double in the post and trap elsewhere—provided, that is, that they're not leaving Frazier or Nic Moore open for three. The other SMU rotation players aren't great shooters, so M's defenders can be aggressive providing help off of those guys.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 2.

If Kennedy plays, I feel not so confident in this.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Dylan reminds us this isn't the first time M's been in an extended funk during the Beilein era. At long last, Ricky Doyle is going to start ("probably," at least). All hail the Big Dripper.