[Ed-Seth: Reminder what this is since it's been on hiatus:Jamiemac of Just Cover Blog and the MGoPodcast was dragged out of quasi-retirement to give us an odds-angle view of relevance to you, and Draft Kings offered to to sponsor it, and puts up a fantasy game to commune in so you can use sports knowledge to win currency of relevance to you.]
THIS WEEK'S GAME: NOT JUST SHOOTING
Well you can kinda-sorta have him back. You can draft Nik Stauskas on your Draft Kings fantasy squad. In fact the San Antonio rookie is only $3,400, like half of the mean.
Not saying you should draft him since McLemore played Wednesday and is holding onto his starting spot for now. I also noticed they got Jamal Crawford at an unreasonable $5,600—that's got to be a combination of his playoff run and holding off new daddy J.J. Redick in the preseason. The points system favors guys who take more shots behind the arc and those who get multiple double digit stats, not just shootersDRINK!
(No Burke/McGary/THJ/GR3 this week because they all play on Saturday)
Details:
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- $2 entry fee (FREE with fist deposit).
- Top 4,000 are paid.
- Starts on Friday, October, 31st at 7:00 EST
- Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 8 spots
- Roster Format: 1 PG, 1 SG, 1 SF, 1 PF, 1 C, 1 G, 1 F and 1 Util.
- First time depositors at DraftKings receive a 100% bonus up to $600
Take the link.
THIS WEEK'S CHALK: A PLACE WHERE MICHIGAN-INDIANA MEANS SOMETHING
There is a place where Michigan has a three-game winning streak over Ohio State. Where they have won six of nine against Michigan State. Where the Wolverines are defending Big Ten Champions. This place has hardwood flooring.
On January 27, 2011, Zack Novak’s aneurysm of leadership burst, Stuart Douglass swished a decisive 3-pointer, and Michigan upset the 11-point favorite MSU Spartans at the Breslin Center. Big 10 Basketball has not been the same since.
[After the jump: journey to Jamie Mac's Big Ten basketball preview, a place where Michigan regularly beats the spread]
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| Chalk had them about three games behind the leaders, not the best by three games! [Fuller] |
Beating the Spread
Do you know that since that day Michigan has the best Big Ten regular season record in the conference? Here are the standings over the last 65 conference games since that fateful night in the state capital: Michigan, 48-17; Ohio State, 45-20; Wisconsin, 44-21; and Michigan State, 43-22. In those 65 games, Michigan is also 39-25-1 against the spread, which, like Cha-Ching!
Now, to be fair, Michigan began that 2011 Big Ten season on a 1-6 run, and if we include the entirety of that season into this mix, UM does not have the best record over the last four full league seasons. At 49-23, they're still two games ahead of MSU and Wisconsin, but three games behind OSU's 52-20 mark.
But let's talk about the last four full seasons, shall we? Michigan is 76-51-4 ATS since the beginning of the 2010-11 year. That's the best record in the league and Michigan is the only Big Ten team with a winning record against the spread in each of the last four seasons. Hey, when you are a Basketball School, you're a Basketball School.
Michigan has been killing it against the number in conference games. Overall, they're a little bit better in games away from Crisler (43-28-3 vs 33-23-1) than they are at home. They're 19-10-1 as double digit chalk on any court, 12-6 when it's a non-conference game. That's something to keep in mind here early in the season.
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| If you're so behind the times you think Nebrasketball is still offensive linemen lugging around the hardwood, you are probably correct again. [Fuller] |
Still Nebrasketball?
Nebraska's rise into the first division of the Big Ten was one of the main storylines a year ago. Picked last by just about everyone, they finished 11-7 in league play, earned a bye in the Big 10 tournament and received a bid into the NCAAs for the first time in years. They also had the conference's best record against the spread with a 20-11 mark.
As anyone who follows my twitter feed knows, we were in on this Nebraska turnaround sooner than just about everyone and took that faith right to the bank. The Huskers went 8-1 ATS in their home digs in conference play, and we were on most of those.
As for this year? We're not as bullish, at least not as it pertains to the odds. The Huskers will still be a factor. It would be hard not to be with Terran Pettway, Shavon Shields and Will Pitchford all returning. All told, the Huskers return over 80 percent of their scoring from a year ago. That puts them in great shape considering teams like Michigan, MSU and Ohio State are seemingly remaking their clubs.
But be careful about trying to jump on the betting bandwagon you might have missed last year. Of the last 10 teams that bested the Big Ten in ATS record, all came back the next year with a worse mark. That's probably pretty obvious. However eight of those teams came back the next season with a losing overall ATS mark. Only two, the 2008 Boilermakers and the 2012 Wolverines (Beilein, For The Money. Always For The Money), came back and even turned a profit after leading the Big Ten in ATS the previous year.
Last year's team on this hot seat was the Iowa Hawkeyes. After a resounding 24-10 ATS mark in 2012-13, they fell to 15-16 last season and there wasn't a team in the league harder to figure out on a nightly basis. It sure did seem they did worse against the number than that record. Of course, I might have been on at least 10 of those losses. Let's not look that one up, shall we?
Moving on, the thing with Nebraska is that despite the obvious momentum that was building last winter, they were only chalk six times in 19 total games against Big Ten competition. In five of those games, they were favored by five points or less. The only big number they faced once they completed the cupcake portion of their non-conference slate was -9.5 at home against Northwestern.
Coincidentally, that was the only home league game they failed against the number, winning by only a 54-47 score. Right now, the KenPom projections show a lot of close home margins in conference play. But if this team lives up to expectations early, I suspect we'll see Vegas odds larger than those projections. Can they handle *those* kind of expectations? We shall see.
Bet Against Northwestern
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| To arms! |
One of the most profitable strategies betting Big Ten hoops a year ago was playing against Northwestern and taking the Under in their games. The Cats went 12-20 against the spread, the worst mark in the league, and cashed the Under in 23 of 32 games, the highest rate in the league. Had you spent last season parlaying bets against the Cats with the Under, your record would have been 14-18. Not the greatest mark, but remember a $100 play on a 2-way parlay pays out a $260 winner.
So that 14-18 record actually would have netted over $1,800 in profit. Not too shabby. On one hand, the Under Bandwagon that Northwestern became is a testament to the defensive mindset first year coach Chris Collins brought to the team compared to Bill Carmody. In the previous five years, Northwestern hit the Over at a 78-54-2 clip and never cashed more Unders than Overs in those seasons.
But on the other hand, it's also a testament to just how bad their offense was a season ago. Check out some of their scores down the back half of the Big Ten season: 49, 48, 47 and 32. They scored less than 59 points 20 times a year ago and less than 50 points nine times.. They actually won a game against Illinois by a 49-43 score.
Will this continue this season? Without Drew Crawford, you have to wonder if they'll get any offense at all. Much of their season will be determined by whether or not Alex Olah takes another step in his development and how well freshmen Victor Law and Bryant McIntosh can step in and play. Law is a tremendous athlete, but probably more of a defensive weapon for Coach Chris Collins right now. McIntosh will be asked to run a lot of point guard, which could be dicey for a freshman, but at least it will keep the ball away from Dave Sobolewski (that guy is STILL around?!). The totals were set pretty low for Northwestern, in the low 120s, for much of last season. Unless the book begins setting those numbers in the 105-115 range, I don't see why the Unders still won’t be the play in their games.
Illinois: Hot at Something
Who was the hottest team down the stretch in the Big Ten? As long as you throw out actual shooting numbers, it was Illinois, which covered eight of their final nine games. Can you recall the game they didn't cover in that run? Here's a hint:
Wait, did that give it away? Of course it did. Can you believe Michigan was only -2 in that game. Ah, good times. Anyway, back to the Illini. I think they'll be much improved next year thanks to a couple transfer additions that should turn one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league to one of the better ones. Like Northwestern, this team hit a ton of Unders a year ago (22 out of 33 attempts), but unlike Northwestern, some of the Illini's offensive woes could be fixed. If we're still seeing totals in the 120s and low 130s, we might be able to surf the Illini’s expected better shooting into some Over wins. We'll see. Something to think about longterm with this club: Head Coach John Groce is 17-9 ATS in his career in postseason tournaments.
Did you know Michigan State didn't cover against the closing line in a single NCAA Tournament game a year ago and that they haven't covered in an NCAA Tournament game beyond the Round of 32 since 2010? I guess you can bet against Tournament Tom. Otherwise, the Spartans have recently been a better bet away from the Breslin Center than they have been in front of the Izzone crowd. In league play, MSU is 8-9-1 at home the last two seasons compared to 13-4-1 on the road. Overall, those numbers 13-16-1 at home and 16-7-1 on the road (regular season games only).
I think the Spartans can manage a winning straight-up record in league play this year. They'll probably get pounded by Duke in the Champions Classic on November 18 and by Kansas in the Orlando Classic Championship game, should they get that far. My only other prediction for them is that those home and away numbers reverse this season, at least in league play. We might see oddsmakers hang smaller numbers than usual for MSU home games and with the home crowd urging them on, I can see them being somewhat of a valuable play in those games.
On the other hand, this team appears to be short on offense and none of the newcomers expected to play a big role appear to be a sure thing. We know Tum Tum Rawls is fast, but is he ready to be a fulltime Big 10 point? We know Bryn Forbes can shoot, but can he make the leap from Horizon League to the Big 10 play? We know Marvin Clark is strong, but is he as skilled as some of the other incoming forwards in league, especially those at Michigan and Ohio State? I could see some road comeuppance as Izzo visits various Big Ten barns with one of his least talented teams in years.