Five-Star Planning Visit, Maybe Two?

2015 five-star CA CB Iman Marshall has mentioned Michigan as one of his planned official visit destinations. According to 247's Steve Lorenz, that's not the only visit to Ann Arbor in the works for the nation's #2 corner ($):

Yesterday, 247Sports National Analyst Ryan Bartow reported that Michigan is expected to receive an official visit from Long Beach (CA) Poly 2015 five-star cornerback Iman Marshall. Per his father, that will not be the only visit he will make to Ann Arbor as they are planning a late July visit.

"Yes, it's looking that way," the elder Marshall said. "It'll be a dead period between school and football after the Opening. That will be a perfect time for us to visit Ann Arbor."

Marshall is reportedly in frequent contact with freshman receiver Freddy Canteen; they worked out together during the offseason and struck up a friendship. It's obviously huge news that Marshall plans to pay his own way to visit campus next month.

In looking at Bartow's original report($) and a free Scout article on Marshall posted on Saturday, however, I'm a little skeptical the original planned official is set to go—when asked about which schools he plans to use officials on, he mentioned Florida State and Notre Dame, but not Michigan. That's not to say he doesn't plan on taking one, just that it isn't set in stone yet. Regardless, the planned July unofficial is a big deal.

The Latest On KLS

Five-star CA WDE Keisean Lucier-Southreleased a top 11 over the weekend; as expected, Michigan made the cut. KLS told Lorenz that he talks to Michigan "almost every day," and he's already hearing the U-M recruiting pitch from their latest 2015 commit ($):

"I hear from Alex (Malzone) and Darrin (Kirkland) almost every day," he said. "Chris Clark got in touch with me only a couple hours after he committed. I hear from Garrett Taylor quite a bit too. I know most of their guys will be at the Opening, so I'm looking forward to meeting them in a few weeks. We'll also all be taking our official visit the week of the Penn State game, so I'll get to spend some time with them then as well."

Clark wasn't kidding about wanting to get a jump start on recruiting before The Opening.

While KLS has called Michigan his "dream school" at times in his recruitment, UCLA is thought to be the team to beat, and after a recent trip to that other school in Los Angeles, another in-state threat looms, per Rivals' Adam Gorney ($):

"I'm starting to like SC a lot," Lucier-South said. "I'm feeling the vibe. It's kind of like the old SC when Pete Carroll was there.

"I think coach Sark is doing a really good job with the program and I especially like the d-line coach, coach Wilson. He's a great guy and he used to coach in Georgia and do big things so I really like SC right now."

While KLS told Lorenz that U-M "will be in it the entire way," it won't be easy to pull him from his home state.

Other 2015 Updates: Michigan, ND "Neck And Neck" For Bilal

Four-star IN LB Asmar Bilal entered his weekend unofficial to Michigan with Notre Dame at the top of his list. Per 247's Steve Wiltfong, he left with Notre Dame in the same position, but with new company ($):

The decision-making process just got more difficult for the 6-foot-3, 205-pound Bilal, who would like to have his mind made up before the fall.

He says Michigan is neck and neck with the Irish moving forward.

“They’re both, I’m juggling with both right now,” Bilal said. “They both have a good academic program and good football program.

Bilal wants to make a decision before the fall, and he doesn't have any other visits scheduled right now, so this looks like a two-team battle, and U-M may have the momentum.

Michigan made a top group of six schools for four-star TX WR AD Miller, but they've got work to do to land an eventual commitment, per Rivals' Jason Howell ($):

"I'm favoring Miami, Arizona State, Cal, Michigan, Ohio State, and Illinois, and I'm leaning towards those schools because they all give me an opportunity to play early, they all have great coaching staffs, and I get along with all the coaches, and I feel like all the academic standards are at a high level," Miller said. "They're good programs."

Three of those programs have begun to separate from the others.

"Yeah schools starting to take that lead are probably Miami, Illinois, and Cal," Miller said. 

Yes, I also did a double-take at "Illinois".

Per TomVH, four-star Washington (DC) Gonzaga athlete Marcus Lewis, a Florida commit, plans to visit Michigan next month. He's listed in various places as a wideout, corner, and safety—I assume U-M would want him at corner to replace Shaun Crawford.

2016 Updates: Leads Don't Always Last

The last recruiting roundup contained the encouraging news that blue-chip 2016 OH OT Liam Eichenberg named Michigan as his leader after camping in Ann Arbor. That lead turned out to be short-lived:

2016 OT Liam Eichenberg just told ISD that after camping at #notredame yesterday, the Irish are his new leader. The reason? Harry Hiestand.

— Irish Sports Daily (@ISDUpdate) June 22, 2014

Hiestand is ND's O-line coach, FWIW.

Per Steve Lorenz, Michigan is set to host a four-star receiver whose name I'm just gonna copy-and-paste, if you don't mind:

Suwanee (GA) North Gwinnett 2016 four-star wide receiver Josh Imatorbhebhe has set a visit date to see Michigan, he tells me.

"I am planning on visiting on the 24th of June right now," he said. "I will be visiting with my brother and mother."

Imatorbhebhe received an offer back in May.

247 updated their 2016 rankings. Tackle commit Erik Swenson moved up two spots to #231, while Messiah deWeaver climbed five spots to #238.

Happy trails to the nation's #1 overall 2016 recruit, TX OT Greg Little, who committed to Texas A&M.

Name: Mook Reynolds
Position: Cornerback
Ht/Wt: 6’0" / 175 lbs.
Location: Northern Guilford - Greensboro, NC (2015)
Offers: Virginia Tech (COMMITTED), Georgia, Michigan, Notre Dame, Duke, East Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee
Rating: ★★★★ .9024 (247 Composite)
Ranking: #263 NAT / #23 CB  (247 Composite)
FILM

In the wake of the Shaun Crawford decommitment the Michigan staff identified Mook Reynolds as a potential replacement and offered him on June 11. Reynolds himself is currently committed to Virginia Tech, but has decided that he will look around just a little bit before finalizing where he'd like to play his college football.

Jamon "Mook" Reynolds was nicknamed by his mother as a baby and it has stuck with him his entire life. While his nickname might make you chuckle, his game and his confidence definitely will not.

"I think of 'Mook' as sort of an alter-ego on the field," he explained. "I am really physical, versatile, and will lay the wood to anybody. When people watch me play they will see me everywhere doing everything. I hate losing more than I like winning. I don't care what it's in, I live to win."

As a current Virginia Tech commit, Reynolds has been compared to former Hokie and recent first round draft pick, Kyle Fuller. At roughly the same size and with a similar skill set, the comparison seems appropriate.

The term "Virginia Tech commit" could be temporary as Reynolds has recently drawn attention from several big time schools, four of which he plans on checking out more closely.

"Michigan, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Tennessee are involved now," Reynolds said. "Those are my most recent offers but right now I'm still committed to Virginia Tech. I'm going to take my visits to those four schools and go from there."

Michigan recruiting buffs are well aware of the BBQ at The Big House. This year Reynolds will be in attendance on July 27th for the event, a plan that he set up through Coach Manning. Reynolds cited his relationship with the new cornerbacks coach as a reason why he's now so interested in the Wolverines.

"The relationship I have with Coach Manning is the only connection I have to Michigan," Reynolds said. "He's a really cool guy even outside of football. He's about his business and is really excited about coaching the corners. He loves Michigan football too and you can tell. He's cool."

Coach Manning isn't the only thing Reynolds likes about Michigan. He pointed out the program's rich history, legacy and tradition as other aspects that he appreciates. 

Reynolds doesn't have any other visits scheduled at this point so it's impossible to say whether the BBQ visit will be a great first impression of the four programs or if it will have a lasting impression as one of his final visits. Either way, the fact that he has the Michigan visit in place before the others can't be a bad thing.

Even though his visits aren't all on the calendar yet, Reynolds knows what he's looking for and has a very level head when it comes to his approach to his recruitment.

"After I take my visits I'm really not sure how my recruitment will finish out. Only time will tell," he said. "If I do what's best for me, it shouldn't be a tough decision though. I'll just take my time with it. I know that I want to play early, I want to win, and I want to have a better opportunity to advance to the next level. I know those are lofty goals, but it keeps me focused."

THE VIBE

5 – Trending Blue
4 – Solidly in a top 2-3
3 – Contender in a top 3-7 
2 – Among large (8-15) group under consideration
1 – Let’s see if he visits before we talk
0 – Passing interest or none

Reynolds is currently committed to Virginia Tech but he didn't hide the fact that he'd like to look around. Right now it seems as if Michigan has as good a shot as any of the other four schools to impress and flip him. The BBQ visit will be big as usual for curious recruits and his relationship with Coach Manning also seems to be trending in the right direction. As the end of July approaches it will be interesting to see if he has scheduled or even engaged in any of the other potential visits. As he said, only time will tell.

scoreboard

Last week I did the thing you're not supposed to do: I got into an argument with a Tennessee fan about conference strength. Actually it started as a conversation about how cute my 1-year-old dog is but all conversations with SEC fans are really conference strength conversations. Before the inevitable deterioration into Woodson-Manning (which is particularly impossible with him because he knew Peyton in school and has an incredible story about how nice of a guy Peyton Manning was) I thought to test his assertion that the SEC has been dominant, except for 2005, since Bear Bryant's day.

Attempting to debate this, I stumbled onto sports-reference.com's SRS statistic. It stands for "Simple Rating System" and was borrowed from the NFL guys. What it represents is how much that team should beat an average team:

So every team's rating is their average point margin, adjusted up or down depending on the strength of their opponents.

This generally works for the NFL because of relative schedule parity. But it proved useless for comparing college football teams and conferences over history because they lacked that. I'll explain why, but first lets apply SRS averages of the conferences since 1964 to our debate, which demonstrates… that I just totally screwed myself:

Cliggens embicking.

Well yeah, but we admitted this: until Penn State joined and some of the dreks got their acts together it really was the Big Two-Little 8. Let's see mostly Michigan-Ohio State against Alabama et al.:

It stayed pretty even except when Michigan wasn't good. There's a reason for that: Michigan (35 times) and Ohio State (33) teams account for over two thirds of Big Ten's 100 representatives from the last 50 years. Alabama teams are counted 28 times, with Florida (18), Tennessee (15), Georgia (12), Auburn (11) and LSU (11) all ahead of the next Big Ten team, which is Penn State (8). Until the '90s, the bottom half of the Big Ten sucked way worse than the bottom half of the SEC, according to SRS:

What really happened here: the SEC teams were playing easier schedules until the Big Ten caught on and started scheduling bodybags, and then things were even until the Big Ten started actually sucking. I explain, after the jump.

[The jump, after which I explain, as I just explained]

Uneven Schedules

The problem with that is they weren't playing equivalent schedules. Alabama's reputation among the SEC is they will play big games while others (looking at you, Ole Miss) constantly schedule cupcakes. Since 1964, it appears a challenging schedule for an SEC team clearly doesn't match up with the Big Ten team that used to make similar claims. A big chunk of those mid-major games were Bama's 32 years of playing Southern Miss (Michigan had 30 years of playing Notre Dame).

It could have skewed further if I chose to count Michigan's quasi-annual series (11 games from 1963-1981) with Navy as a major opponent—they certainly weren't by the time the series ended in '81, but when it started the Midshipmen were perennial powers, having lost the (de facto) national championship game to end 1963 and coming into the '64 Michigan game ranked #6 nationally (that team finished 3-6-1 and unranked).

Let's look closer that that 1974 season when the SEC reached some sort of peak (12.9 average SRS, to the Big Ten's 7.27). That's the year that Michigan beat Ohio State with a last-second field goal except it was called wide just so Michigan's seniors could get screwed once again. Since that epic stupid fuckery was allowed to stand M and OSU tied for the Big Ten championship, and Archie Griffin and co. made another undeserved trip to Pasadena, losing to USC so the Trojans could be crowned national champs by everybody but the AP, which justly chose Oklahoma.

That year SEC teams played just six conference games to the Big Ten's eight. As a result 73% of the Big Ten's games were against each other while only 55% of SEC schedules necessarily resulted in a conference loss. All but one of those conference games were replaced with body bags.

Dennis Franklin in 1974, driving toward an ultimate ref-hosing. [UM Bentley Library]

The Big Ten's mid-majors were Navy, #10 Miami (NNTM) and Arizona, plus Minnesota played North Dakota. The SEC also caught Miami (NNTM), which beat Kentucky (they tied Purdue). The rest were Army, Houston, Louisville (x3), Memphis (x3), Southern Miss (x2), Tulane (x4), Tulsa, and Utah. To that they added games against Chattanooga and one each versus Lamar, William & Mary, and the Virginia Military Institute. None of the SEC's mid-major opponents were ranked at the time they played but a few cracked the top 25 at various points.

The SEC indeed did better against real competition—they went 21-5-2 against other majors, versus the Big Ten's 14-12-0. Even there the Big Ten's opponents were way tougher. Only five of the SEC's major non-conference foes were ranked at the time of their game, the highest #12 UCLA. The Big Ten meanwhile played national championship contenders Nebraska and Notre Dame thrice apiece plus eventual #2 USC and #7 Penn State.

It makes a huge difference. The SEC and Big Ten teams beat mid-major and lower division teams by an average score of 32-13 as opposed to 22-18 versus major conference foes, but SRS treats them as the same.

Also making a difference, probably, was the tendency of crotchety Woody Hayes acolytes who peppered the Big Ten keeping scoring margins artificially low by grinding away the end of games, running out 4-point victories as gentlemen do. The did this, and it bit them on occasion, so I don't know how to calculate it. Perhaps percentage of all points (for example a 13-10 win counts as much as a 52-40 one) instead of scoring margin?

I don't know hot to fix it without downloading all of their data. But average SRS is a useless stat.

They said it couldn't be done. As first reported by mgouser Canadian, hockey tickets are actually declining(!) in price this year:

Just got an email informing me that this seasons prices have been reduced. Endzone seats see a 15% drop, sideline 12% and centre ice 10%.
Also I noticed at the bottom of the email that season ticket holders will receive a 20% concession discount before the start of the game (for every home game). This is great news for myself as that's the only time i visit the concession stands (grabbing a bite to eat as I have to rush over right after work).

Wags immediately assert not to click on any links as this email must be written by a Nigerian prince, but no seriously I got it too:

I wonder when the last price drop in one of the big three sports happened. I certainly can't remember one, but you have to figure that basketball was walking back prices at some point during the dark period. Ticket demand for hockey must be very soft, what with two years out of the tournament and basketball going like gangbusters.

There's also an assortment of season ticket holder benefits. While none of them are particularly significant, it is a step in the right direction for a department that has basically laughed at the idea of loyalty since Brandon was installed.

Ty Wheatley tribute. Wolverine Historian releases a new version that's five minutes longer because why not:

A sizeable nerve hit. John U Bacon's article about Michigan's season ticket situation was so popular his server imploded under the pressure, and now Yahoo has asked him to consolidate and refine it for their site. I don't think the headline guy did him any favors by invoking "greed", but if you liked the original you'll find plenty to agree with in the sequel. It also gives me the opportunity to pull another money quote, so here goes:

Yes, advertising in the Big House does matter. Americans are bombarded by ads, about 5,000 a day. Michigan Stadium used to be a sanctuary from modern marketing, an urban version of a National Park. Now it's just another stop on the sales train.

Everything the ticket holders spend hundreds of dollars to wait for and pay for, they can get at home for next to nothing – including the ads -- plus better replays. They can only get the marching band at the Big House.

John might be attempting to set a record for "number of times single piece gets emailed to me," and I think he's just about caught that piece about Gibbons that every MSU/OSU troll in the world sent me.

Just when your life was running low on gravel trucks. Mike Barwis has a reality TV series coming up from the Funny or Die guys, who happen to be fanatical Michigan fans. Barwis is a natural for this, of course.

Well done, Jim. Jim Delany took the stand as an NCAA witness. For the umpteenth time, an NCAA witness went over a bunch of stuff the judge said she wouldn't be considering like the impact on non-revenue sports. Delany also issued more College Is Good statements that make legal analysts rend their garments at their irrelevancy.

That was par for the course. Then Delany firebombed his side's cause:

Delany is tired of athletes being asked to spend all year on voluntary -- read: mandatory -- workouts. He'd like to see athletes get a chance to spend a semester abroad if they chose. He believes they are supposed to be students first. As he said all this, he admitted he remains very much in the minority among the policymakers in college sports on those issues. (Case in point: The schools have recently passed rules allowing football and basketball coaches to spend more time with their players in the offseason.)

That admission from Delany hacked several questions off his cross examination.

The plaintiffs have spent the entire trial trying to prove that in today's NCAA, players are athletes first and students second. The NCAA's attorneys and most of its witnesses have insisted that isn't the case. They say the athletes are students who just happen to play sports. They say allowing football and men's basketball players to sell their name, image and likeness rights would drive a wedge between the athletes and the student body. The plaintiffs contend the wedge was driven long ago and extra money in the pockets of the athletes won't change that. Delany helped them make that case Friday by explaining the reforms he'd like to see that actually would make the players feel more like regular students and then by explaining that they'd get steamrolled if they came up for a vote.

People are just in charge of things, etc.

I only have one problem with Andy Staples's article:

Outside of the Big Ten, Delany is massively unpopular. He continually stood in the way of a college football playoff. He essentially claimed an SEC team beat a Big Ten team for a football national title because the SEC team was faster and dumber. He created a cash cow of a cable network while still banging the drum for amateurism.

He is massively unpopular to Big Ten fans as well after adding Rutgers and Maryland.

Meanwhile, in Emmertland. Staples covers Emmert's testimony:

Emmert discussed the "commercial pressures" to use athletes in a variety of ways. "One has to make sure, in an amateur context, that it doesn't go to a place where the student-athletes are in fact being used as nothing more than shills for a product," Emmert said.

Staples got a little snarky. I understand. It's hard not to be. As I've noted before, taking the NCAA's model and trying to justify it in a courtroom leads to progressively increasing levels of cognitive dissonance that end with you going ACK and snarking.

Oh no, what would that be like. Upside to the NCAA enforcement department ceasing to exist, from the NCAA's perspective:

Banowsky (NCAA): It would be "highly-corruptive" if big money boosters, tied to AAU coaches and "South Beach parties", negotiated IP rights.

— Michael McCann (@McCannSportsLaw) June 23, 2014

Dinosaur hit by Google meteor. It must have been grand to be a sportswriter in the days when the collective memory of your readers was about six months long, tops, an you could just recycle your bits ad nauseum in between three-martini lunches. Unfortunately, these days you can just plug "out of touch sportswriter name" and "topic" and verily, thou art exposed.

So when Dan Shaughnessy wrote a "but I don't want to like soccer" piece that seemed 25 years old, it was quickly discovered that the reason it seemed 25 years old is that it actually was. Deadspin:

Hands are what separate man from beast

June 22, 2014

Soccer takes away our hands. This makes the game incredibly skillful and exhausting, but also robs fans of much of the beauty of sport. Hands and opposable thumbs separate us from creatures of the wild.

June 17, 1994

And what's with the hands? How good can any game be when you can't use your hands? Hands are what separate us from the animal kingdom.

July 5, 1990

Finally, there is the hands problem. Hands and thumbs, that's what separates us from the beasts of the jungle.

I'm terrified that I repeat myself too much when I go on about how punting is evil or the NCAA should keel over and die posthaste, because I came of age shaking my head at dudes like Shaugnessy and Rick Reilly who phoned in the same four columns for 20 years.

I used to be really mad at these guys because they were wasting the greatest job in the world. Nowadays it's more contempt than anger. Y'all are still doing this in 2014?

Hockey scouting. Over The Boards collects a bunch of scouting on college-hockey bound gentlemen, touching on a number of Michigan recruits. Zach Werenski, who may be on campus this fall:

He’s deliberate and doesn’t put himself in situations to fail. He doesn’t pick his battles, he just battles smart. His natural abilities, what he’s worked on, continuing to improve, I think the debate is what part of what he does is going to persist to the pro level, but his being well-rounded I don’t think makes him undefined like some toolsy kids that can’t figure out where they put their skills in the toolbox and when to pull them out, you know? He knows what he can do and plays to it: situational awareness.

2016 D Griffin Luce:

“Luce is arguably the best ’98 defenseman in the country. He has great size at 6’3, 200 and plays with an edge, throwing his body around in the corners and in-front of the net in his own end and is a presence on the offensive blueline. Luce moves very well for his size and age and handles the puck effortlessly with hard, crisp, tape to tape passes up ice. He can run the powerplay and with his reach and hockey IQ is an ideal penalty killer as his head is always on swivel and getting his stick out to take away passing lanes."

Luce is projected as a potential first-rounder. 2015 F Kyle Connor gets a brief mention as a kid who has really come on this year. That is understating it a bit. Connor was second in the USHL in scoring this year, highly unusual for a kid his age, and is one of three 2015-ish recruits at the WJC evaluation camp this year. I know Yost Built has been fretting about whether he'll follow through on his commitment, so hopefully this reassures somewhat:

“Growing up, that was my dream school,” said Connor. “I’m a Michigan football fan and Michigan everything, even my parents are big Michigan fans. When I heard they offered me the scholarship it was a no brainer.”

Saginaw drafted him in the 14th round, and they're not known for swooping in on college commits.

I will also take this opportunity to note that UNO has a kid named "Luc Snuggerud" coming in this year. That has to go high up on the list of most hockey names.

Etc.: EMU to install a gray field, start calling Rynearson "the Factory." "Why isn't EMU I-AA?" you ask, because that's what you always ask about EMU.

USC announces that all revenue sport scholarships will be guaranteed for four years. A collection of early Big Ten odds. Texas's AD is so Brandon, still.

Gallon's levitation skills translated to the college game just fine.

Previously: 2008 Offense, 2008 Defense, 2009 Defense, 2009 Quarterbacks

Finishing out the series looking back on the 2009 recruiting class, here's a look at the non-quarterback offensive players, as described in Brian's recruiting posts of yore. But first...

My Bad, Cam

While I remembered to include then-OL, future-NT Quinton Washington on the defensive side of the ball, I forgot to do the same for Cam Gordon, the future defensive positional nomad who came to Michigan with most recruiting services considering him a wide receiver. As Gordon's recruitment wore on, it became more clear that his best spot may actually be in the defensive back seven, and thus we got one of the odder player comps I've seen:

Jason Avant, or maybe Prescott Burgess

Why Avant or Burgess? Bulky 6'2" wide receiver who will push 215 and lacks deep speed == Avant. Rangy linebacker who needs to put on 20 pounds, switch positions (sort of) and probably struggle with the mental part of being a college linebacker for a while == Burgess.

Free safety wasn't mentioned, because only an insane, desperate person would put a player matching that profile on the last line of defen--AAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIGGGGHHHHHH. (Thank you, Denard, forever and always.)

Gordon ended his career as a backup outside linebacker and situational defensive end. Fire Tony Gibson again, just in case.

The Blue Darter

As for prospects who actually ended up at receiver, Michigan had two: consensus top-200 prospect Je'Ron Stokes, and a high school single-wing quarterback who—despite being an Army All-American—earned four-star status on just one site due to his diminutive stature.

PEAK MIXTAPE WEEZY WITH A KEVIN FEDERLINE REFERENCE.
HOW DID IT GET SO LATE SO SOON?

Though everyone pegged Jeremy Gallon as a pure slot ninja—he'd prove to be much more, obviously—the eye-opening highlights and strong Army week performance earned him plenty of hype:

Gallon is a Swiss Army knife of a player: pocket-sized, versatile, capable of surprising feats, and… uh… hard to tackle. (If you've ever tried to tackle a Swiss Army knife you know what I'm talking about. They're pointy.) It's hard to envision a scenario in which one of his diverse and sundry talents doesn't find him on the field, if not this fall than next.

Brian, I'd like to hear more about your past attempts to ... tackle ... pocket knives.

As for Stokes...

When Je'Ron Stokes committed to Michigan I was in an airport about to board a plane for Egypt by way of Germany, and as soon as he did I logged off and forgot all about him. Ever since when something reminds me of that commitment, it's like a weird bonus: oh, yeah, that universally-praised wide receiver in the class I never remember. He's like a ghost recruit.

Yeah, that was for the best.

Oh Damn, Fitz

From 2008-09, I worked as an intern at The Wolverine, and one of my primary tasks during football season was posting the stats of Michigan's commits each week. A back from Ohio's Division V Youngstown Liberty by the name of Fitzgerald Toussaint committed a few months before I got that job, so week after week that fall I'd look up his stats, bug out my eyes, and get incrementally more excited for him to see the field at U-M:

Fitzgerald Toussaint, Youngstown Liberty: Senior RB and Michigan recruit went over 250 yards for the seventh week in a row in a 33-28 win over Hubbard. After generating 16 yards on four carries in the first half, Toussaint erupted for 235 yards in the second half and scored two TDs. He has 1,950 yards in eight games.

He'd finish the season with over 2,200 yards and 28 touchdowns. Between those numbers and his excellently soundtracked highlights, I thought he'd be the next great Michigan running back:

That wasn't to be, at least in large part for reasons outside his control, but when remembering where Toussaint came from...

It wasn't all flowers and 90-yard touchdowns for Toussaint, though. His dad—also named Fitzgerald Toussaint—ended up in jail after stabbing his ex-wife's boyfriend… at a football scrimmage. Nasty business.

...I'd say 32 career starts, graduating from U-M, and getting a shot to make an NFL roster constitutes a very successful college career.

Vincent Smith's profile started out with similar recounting of a tough upbringing in Pahokee, then mostly waffled between excitement about his highlights/fit in the scheme and trepidation about his size, which was the subject of an awkwardly written ESPN scouting report:

ESPN says Smith lacks size "on paper"—which uh what about real life too—and says he runs "low to the ground," as if he has a choice.

Sadly, no mention of fingerguns or being a heat-seeking, defender-destroying missile.

Michigan rounded out a three-man running back class with Cass Tech product Teric Jones, who recorded the fastest time at the Army combine after his junior year but didn't receive much at all in the way of recruiting hype. By the time he got to campus the coaches were already considering a position switch:

In fact, Michigan might be shooting Jones into lots of space as a slot receiver. Rodriguez said Jones was a slot receiver who "may also get reps at running back" at the signing day press conference, and Jones did have some nice receiving numbers as a junior: 24 catches for 306 yards.

Jones ended up playing special teams as a true freshman, bounced between running back and cornerback as the thin roster dictated need, then left the team and went on medical scholarship before the 2011 season after a sophomore-year knee injury.

If You Just Take Two Linemen...

...you might as well make them NFL linemen, and that's exactly what happened with U-M's 2009 O-line class of Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield. Lewan, especially, was quite the steal; he was a total unknown until moving from defensive line to offensive line before his senior season, then vaulted into the top 300 recruits on all three recruiting services and played in the Under Armour AA Game in his first year playing the position. Michigan had a nice in with Lewan—his teammate at Chaparral High, Craig Roh, had been committed to U-M for months when Lewan decided to also head to Ann Arbor. 

While this usually doesn't happen, Lewan's high school coach ended up giving the most accurate forecast of his player's potential:

“Michigan is getting, in my opinion, the steal of this year's recruiting class in the country,” Ragle said. “I know that's a bold statement to make, (but) this kid’s ability on the field won't be questioned. He's as good an athlete on the offensive line as I've ever seen.”

...

"He's as good athletically as any guy I have ever coached," Ragle said. "The thing that makes him so special is his upside when you think he's only been coached at the position for about eight months. But the one intangible that's most impressive is his nastiness --Taylor wants to burry [sic] someone on every play, and you can't coach that."

On point, Coach Ragle.

Schofield's rankings were in a similar range as Lewan's after a strong senior season. What stood out about him most was his athleticism—which translated to the college game, as he seamlessly transition from being Michigan's best pulling guard to a nimble pass-protector at tackle—and considering he's now 6'7" and 300+ pounds this is rather astounding:

In his first two years at Sandburg, Schofield ran the 110 high hurdles for the Eagles’ track team, winning a conference title his freshman year and finishing second his sophomore season. He also moved up to the varsity team for the state tournament during his sophomore year, finishing sixth in sectionals.

Unfortunately, there's no video of this, as the age of someone-on-a-smartphone-will-film-literally-anything hadn't hit yet.

So, with that exercise out of the way, who's ready to go over the 2010 class?

/click

On second thought, let's save that for next summer. Or perhaps never. Leaning towards never.

Name: Marcus Lewis
Position: Cornerback
Ht/Wt: 6’1" / 187 lbs.
Location: Gonzaga - Washington, DC (2015)
Offers: Florida (COMMITTED), Baylor, Boston College, Clemson, East Carolina, Florida State, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, NC State, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia
Rating: ★★★★ .9431 (247 Composite)
Ranking: #118 NAT / #8 ATH  (247 Composite)
FILM

When Shaun Crawford decommitted a couple of weeks ago cornerback suddenly became a much bigger position of need in the 2015 class. Michigan had offered Marcus Lewis back in February but now that there is a secondary vacancy in the class, he has become a much bigger priority.

Lewis is currently committed to Florida but he is curious about several schools scattered all over the country, including Michigan.

"I'm still feeling Florida, but I just want to take some visits like everyone else," Lewis explained. "I'm interested in Michigan, Miami, Oregon, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Washington State. I know that is all over the place and I'm not sure if the distance will be a big deal, I want to check out Oregon and Washington State since they're far away. I've already visited Miami and Kentucky."

Lewis expressed interest in multiple schools, but with Michigan, he already has a visit scheduled for one of the programs biggest recruiting events.

"I'll be checking out Michigan for the BBQ," he said. "I've heard that it's a good time for recruits. The coaches wanted me to come up for it."

Lewis is on a pretty regular communication schedule with the coaches and the ever-popular Coach Manning had his name brought up yet again.

"I communicate with Coach Mallory, Coach Manning, and Coach Mattison once a week," Lewis said. "I've also talked to Coach Hoke. I'm definitely feeling the staff at Michigan!"

Lewis mentioned Michigan's tradition as another big draw for him. He says he just wants to see the campus and spend time with the coaches in person to really get a feel for everything. Those coaches aren't the only ones coming after Lewis, however. Potential future teammates of his are really getting after him too.

"Man, they are coming after me pretty hard," Lewis said with a laugh. "Garrett Taylor, Chris Clark, and Tyree Kinnel are all talking to me about Michigan. They say that they need me. They all think I can be a big part of the team. I am buying what they are saying actually. Especially what they're saying about a Michigan degree. You can't beat it."

Lewis seems to already have pretty strong feelings toward Michigan but he's not ready to dive into the maize and blue pool just yet.

"I'm not going to call Michigan a leader quite yet," he admitted. "I just want to visit and see how it is."

THE VIBE

5 – Trending Blue
4 – Solidly in a top 2-3
3 – Contender in a top 3-7 
2 – Among large (8-15) group under consideration
1 – Let’s see if he visits before we talk
0 – Passing interest or none

The way Lewis spoke about Michigan made it hard for me to believe that he was committed to Florida. I think Michigan has a very realistic chance at flipping him when it's all said and done. Lewis told me that he doesn't plan to commit while visiting for the BBQ, but I've heard that before. I'm not saying it's likely, but I think he will love what he sees and feels on campus, and with several commits spending time with him in person it could be a pretty persuasive environment.

THE ESSENTIALS

It's simple for the US: tie or possibly go home. Things get complicated if they're losing. So let's not do that.

THE THEM: DIE MANNSCHAFT SOUNDS LIKE A JOKE BUT IS ACTUALLY WHAT THEY'RE CALLED AND WHY NOT

From 1,000 feet, the German national team is the US national team: great goalkeepers, hard-working, tall, disciplined, organized, relentless, not given over to the kind of petulance that affects quite a lot of people after they've been running around for 70 minutes and think they might collapse at any moment.

The problem comes when you zoom in, and all the American stuff about German holds true and then they happen to be smarter, faster in spots, and just generally better. The hypothetical endpoint of USA soccer is Germany. Teams like Italy and Holland occasionally crash out in the group stage. Germany never does. Michael Ballack summed it up best when the final bit of the Group Of Death fell into place during the World Cup draw: as America panicked and set its pets on fire, Ballack monosyllabically droned "we. don't. care."

They don't care because they'll win anyway. Imagine Michigan, 1989. That's Germany.

GOALIE: Manuel Neuer is generally regarded as the best in the world right now. He's done nothing to give anyone a different impression so far.

more like Per Mertesoccer amirite

DEFENSE: The usual collection of giant robots direct from that Pixar-y Nike commercial. Central defenders Per Mertesacker and Mats Hummels are 6'6" and 6'4", respectively, and while Mertesacker can be exposed by speed somewhat, Hummels is usually able to compensate. They're in the running for the best pairing in the tournament.

The problem, such as it is, comes on the outside. Phillip Lahm has been drafted as a defensive midfielder, leaving Germany a collection of outside backs who are generally deployed on the interior at their clubs. This was a major issue in Germany's 2-2 draw with Ghana, as Christian Atsu was able to fire in shots and crosses considerably more dangerous than the ones he got off against DaMarcus Beasley; Andre Ayew was able to score on a back-post header and Ghana fired in a ton of crosses.

Ghana chances largely came from the German left

The left back, Benedikt Howedes, is a right-footed central defender by trade. The right back, whether it's Jerome Boateng or Shkodran Mustafi, is a slightly less awkward fit since they're on their natural foot. But only slightly; both are central defenders at club level. As a result the German outside backs rarely venture beyond the edge of the final third.

Howedes, Boateng, and Mustafi against Portugal (left) and Ghana (right)

That Portugal chart is pretty remarkable what with Portugal's wingers so uninterested defensively and the team playing narrowly after the Pepe red card.

As a unit, these guys are large, organized, and reasonably fast enough. Outside back, though, is a place where the US does seem to have an advantage.

MIDFIELD: Lahm, Sami Khedira, and Toni Kroos are the backbone of the entire side, and will give the USA problems. The US has a couple of guys who are a physical match for the burly Khedira, and Beckerman may be the tactical equivalent of the heady Lahm, but really it comes down to Bradley being Bradley and not the off-brand version we've seen so far.

That's because Kroos is Bradley minus doubts. Jonathan Wilson:

Kroos is dynamic and hardworking. He can play at the back of midfield or at the front, in the centre or on the flank. He could almost certainly play as a box-to-box midfielder in a 4-4-2 if he ever were asked to do something so archaic. He is creative without being flash, breaks up play without being violent. He is physically robust without being a monster and astute in possession without over-reaching. He has an understated efficiency that means he probably isn't appreciated as much as he ought to be.

Wilson does seem to think more of Kroos than many people. Not a ton more—dude is a starter on Germany, after all.

Meanwhile, if Kroos is German Bradley, Khedira is German Beckerman:

Khedira is in many ways Löw's key player. In a team characterised by outstanding attacking prowess he holds the defensive midfield together and is very much a player out of the "coach's favourite" mould: a good reader of the game, disciplined and perfect at implementing his respective manager's instructions. No wonder, then, that his coaches at Real Madrid, José Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti, also value Khedira's style of play. In the midst of a host of artists he plays the unpretentious conductor and with the German national side not having a Pirlo or a Xavi, it needs at least a Khedira.

Because he's German Beckerman he's like Beckerman except a super elite athlete.

Lahm is a fixture with Germany and Bayern Munich, generally at outside back. Last year he was moved to defensive mid by his club, though, and he has taken up the same position for Germany. He had issues against Ghana's high press—he was involved in the sloppy German build-up to the Ghana pirate schooner of a goal. That was an aberration for Lahm's career and recent form.

FORWARD: You can look at a tactical thing that says Mehmet Ozil is here and Muller is here and on average they'll be right-ish, but everyone goes everywhere. Ozil in particular roams across the width of the field just in front of the opposition defense, offering outlets to any German who happens to have the ball and playing in guys from anywhere.

Ozil vs Ghana

He has virtually no defensive responsibility.

Mario Gotze is a very similar player, a natural #10 who roams around looking for the ball. With Ozil on the field he functions a bit like a winger and a bit like a withdrawn striker. Thomas Muller is the most striker-y of Germany's dedicated attackers, at least in this tournament. Normally one of the three attacking mids in a 4-2-3-1, an injury has forced him into the striker spot. He relies on intelligent movement more than raw power to get his goals; all three attacking players interchange constantly.

The overall effect is odd. None of Germany's attackers are physically overwhelming or even particularly deft on the ball—no Messis or Ronaldos here—but because of collective understanding and anticipation they rain in goals.

If Germany's chasing the game, ancient Miroslav Klose will likely enter. Klose is a combo target forward/poacher who just tied the all-time World Cup scoring record; he's done so without scoring a goal from outside the box.

ALTERNATIVES: Germany has many of them.

THE US(A)

Without Altidore, the US switched to the 4-2-3-1 they'd gone with through most of qualifying. Dempsey was the lone forward with Bradley the attacking mid; Beckerman and Jones were D-mids behind. I felt some foreboding about it and not entirely without reason, as neither Zusi or Bedoya had much impact on the game until Zusi's cross off a scramble gave the US their second.

But situations being what they are, it makes sense to reprise that formation. Jozy is still out and the US get through with a draw. Given the roster, the question is who replaces Jozy: Zusi/Bedoya or Johannsson/Wondolowski? The answer against a 4-3-3 was a midfielder; the answer against what's pretty much a 4-3-3 is likely to be a midfielder.

GOALIE: Howard.

DEFENSE: Beasley, Besler, Cameron, Johnson.

Any thought that the US should switch things up because Cameron had a bad couple plays needs to compete with the fact that apparently it would be Omar Gonzalez  replacing him. Even if Gonzalez was supposed to be playing some sort of defensive mid spot late against Portugal, he has been shaky for the US in his last half-dozen appearances.

On a down to down basis, Cameron offers more. He has not provided many moments of worry except the terribly bad one to Nani—I buy Jesse Marsch's explanation of the Portugal equalizer that spreads blame throughout a bunch of players*. Focus on the consistency instead of the accidental severity of mistakes and Cameron is obvious.

As discussed in the Germany D section, this is a spot where the US should have a tactical advantage. Johnson can bomb forward without worrying that his opposite number will catch him on the break. As long as the US has cover, and with Cameron and Beckerman they do, the outside backs should be the freest guys on the field.

*[Marsch points out that Varela is Fabian Johnson's mark and that Cameron has two guys slowing up at the edge of the box in front of him that he is looking at. By the time Cameron sees the cross he's got little chance of getting to it, because it is perfect.]

MIDFIELD: Beckerman, Jones, Bedoya, Bradley, Diskerud

The three defensive-ish mids are locks. Bedoya is highly probable.

Then the fourth guy is in question. Zusi had a bad game outside the assist, constantly losing possession thanks to a wooden first touch. Davis is probably not in the cards since crossing won't be at a premium against Germany and Davis was absolutely miserable defensively against Turkey. The US will want guys who at least try.

Diskerud is a strong possibility. He is the most possession-y option in game in which the US would like to grab the ball and thunk it around quite a bit. The Germany wings are threatening, but not quite in the same way that Ronaldo and Nani are; the German fullbacks do not provide a whole lot of threat. A centrally-oriented possession midfielder makes sense given the situation and opponent. Diskerud is that, and he's fresh. Also his hair is amazing.

FORWARD: Dempsey

Dempsey did a credible imitation of a target forward against a couple of burly but not particularly agile center backs and he's got a version of that again in this game. Hummels in particular is a step above anything Portugal has to offer, but given the situation it makes sense to play things conservatively and add attacking verve if the situation demands it.

SUBS: If the US needs a goal, lifting Zusi or Bedoya for Wondolowski or Johannsson, makes sense, possibly both if you want to drop Dempsey into an attacking midfield role. If the US is shepherding a win or draw to the finish line, Yedlin should reprise his speed merchant role from the Portugal game.

THE REF

Ravshan Irmatov is from Uzbekistan, but he's not one of the randoms from tiny countries included to disallow Maurice Edu goals. He's a veteran of many high-profile matches with few complaints lodged against him. He did the 2010 World Cup opener and a semifinal.

The most controversial thing on his profile was an incident where he whistled for a penalty kick the moment before a goal was scored and decided to allow the goal.

KEYS OTHER THAN SCORING MORE GOALPOINTS

is a tired Jones even possible?

Fitness will be tested. I'm not entirely sure I buy the game-after-Manaus-is-doom meme being tossed around. Yeah, England lost to Uruguay and Italy lost to Costa Rica, but after the crapfest they put up in their final matches it's possible those teams just suck. And a look deeper than the score indicates that most teams coming off a game in the jungle weren't exactly overrun:

• England vs Uruguay: England outshoots 12-8, has 63% possession, almost scores about five goals, gives up derf derf goal to Suarez to lose.
• Italy vs Costa Rica: Shots tied, Italy with 61% possession and about 200 extra passes.
• Croatia vs Mexico: 11-10 shot edge for Mexico, Croatia with 55% of possession.

Cameroon—possibly the worst team in the competition—was always going to get ripped by Brazil. So there's only one game in which the Manaus effect really looks like much of anything. That's Mexico-Croatia. Is that a Manaus effect or just the obvious effect of putting a bunch of Mexican dudes up against people who think 75 is time to flip on the AC?

That said, the US has had their defensive midfielders run their ass off for full 90s and has one fewer day of rest. If they're pressing for a goal, things are going to get seriously stretched.

Touchline crosses and "underlapping" runs. The aerial doom provided by the German defensive Luftwaffe makes trying to head in goals a difficult proposition. Setting up against a set defense and trying to put it on Dempsey's head is a wasted possession.

Despite this, the US has a couple of speedy outside backs that can and should have an impact. This can come either by beating the slower German outside backs to the endline, where crosses can be fired in low and hard, or diving inside when the USA's wingers provide them room by stretching Germany horizontally. See: Yedlin versus Portugal, Johnson versus Turkey, etc.

Low tempo, high possession. With fitness a concern and a draw good enough, the US should be content to dawdle on the ball if not presented with a clear chance to break. This may not be a wink-wink draw but neither is it going to be a wide-open attacking goal fest.

It'll be interesting to see how much pressing either team does. Germany certainly has the ability to do so, but they're also vulnerable, what with a number of defensively-oriented guys in awkward positions. Sulley Muntari's tackle in Germany's defensive third led to a trademark goal from Gyan.

An eye on the other game. Depending on how the other game goes, the US may not need to react if they go down a goal. If Portugal is leading the other game they can take a 1-0 defeat and get through. If Portugal-Ghana is 0-0 in the 80th they're feeling pretty good.

But Ghana already in the lead against the Portuguese or even 1-1 would mean the US would have to go all out for a goal even if that left them exposed to counterattacks from Germany. The best way to avoid all this is to not go down, of course. But… yeah.

A lot of people are predicting that Portugal falls over and dies. That is a possibility. But Ronaldo is highly concerned with his legacy and has zero goals in this World Cup as Neymar and Messi pound 'em in. He's going up against a shaky, disorganized backline. Pepe should return with an eye on redemption, as well. They'll at least give their all for 45; hope for an early Portugal goal and then they'll be energized to hang on.

TIE THE GAME. #tiethegame

SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

DIVBYZERO

Michigan's trio of early entrants will learn their NBA Draft fates tomorrow night, and it appears there's at least a puncher's chance Nik Stauskas, Mitch McGary, and Glenn Robinson III all find their way into the first round. Here are the most recent projections and rumors for the three Wolverines as they await the moment they officially realize their professional dreams.

Nik Stauskas

It doesn't appear Stauskas will fall any further than the #13 pick (Minnesota), and there's a solid chance he cracks the top ten. The Philadelphia 76ers own two lottery picks, at #3 and #10, and Stauskas appears to be an ideal fit for their second selection. CSN Philly states Stauskas would fit the team's needs "perfectly," as they lack shooting, which you may know Stauskas does rather well:

The Sixers are in desperate need of shooters to complement Michael Carter-Williams, Nerlens Noel and whomever they draft with the third pick. Nobody in this draft shoots the ball better than Stauskas. Defenses always have to account for a shooter like Stauskas when he's on the floor. This would open up driving lanes for Carter-Williams and create more room inside for post players like Noel to operate.

Stauskas and Carter-Williams would form a dynamic backcourt. Both have good size and their skill sets complement one another very well. Stauskas is a solid enough ballhandler and decision-maker to play point guard in a pinch. Brett Brown would also have the option of bringing Stauskas off the bench. He would thrive in that role, providing instant offense the minute he enters the game.

The two other prospects who fit that mold and are expected to go in the same range are MSU's Gary Harris and Kentucky's James Young. After pre-draft workouts, Stauskas and Harris have seemingly separated themselves from Young, and Stauskas is consistently projected to go a spot or two above Harris.

A Sixers squad featuring MCW, Stauskas, Thaddeus Young, Nerlens Noel, and the #3 pick could be a really exciting young team to watch.

Mitch McGary

McGary has taken a cautious approach to the pre-draft process as he recovers from back surgery, as he detailed after working out for the Milwaukee Bucks, per UMHoops:

“It’s a little different, my situation with the surgery and everything else going into (the draft),” McGary said. “I thought this was was the best possible outcome for me — having a couple of limited workouts and getting my body back to where it needs to be and have the best chance in the draft. I talked to the assistant GM and the GM and they’re definitely interested in me.”

The Bucks own the #2 pick (not happening) and the first pick of the second round, but it appears they'll have to move up if they want to snag McGary. According to ESPN's draft insider, Chad Ford, there's good reason why McGary hasn't pushed himself through workout after workout:

I'm confident Mitch McGary has a promise in the 1st round. He's done just 1 workout. He's healthy. His camp has gone radio silent.

— Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) June 24, 2014

Hearing Hornets at 24 most likely destination for Mitch McGary to land. Source says they are the culprit of his draft workout shutdown

— Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) June 24, 2014

That's a little higher than the most recent spate of mock drafts had McGary going, but not by much: he was projected to go anywhere from the Miami Heat's pick at #24 (Ford) to the Dallas Mavericks' selection at #34 (CBS's Gary Parrish, who seems to think the marijuana thing will actually matter to the NBA, so... grain of salt) before Ford unveiled the info above.

While the Hornets don't have the NBA's most talented roster, they have some promise in the backcourt (namely PG Kemba Walker), a consistent 20-10 guy in center Al Jefferson, and a big hole at power forward filled last year by Josh McRoberts (an unrestricted free agent) and Cody Zeller. If McGary landed there, he'd have every chance at playing time once he's 100%, and he'd fit in great as an energy guy alongside the older, more polished Jefferson.

Glenn Robinson III

This is where it gets interesting, as nobody seems to have a great idea where GRIII could end up; he's projected to be picked anywhere from #21 by Oklahoma City (NBADraftNet) to the LA Clippers' second-round selection at #39 (Parrish). Most, however, have him right on the edge of the first round; ESPN's Jeff Goodman has him going to the Clippers at #28 overall, while his colleague Ford has Robinson playing for his father's old team after Milwaukee selects him with the first pick of the second round.

The Clippers seem like an ideal landing spot for GRIII. He wouldn't be asked to do too much right away on such a good team, but there could be opportunity for some early minutes at the three if Danny Granger doesn't re-sign after opting out of the final year of his deal, and at the very least Robinson would provide another high-flying fast break threat for Lob City.

Homerism caveat granted, I believe it'll be difficult for a player with Robinson's athleticism, pedigree, and potential to slip out of the first round, especially since most of the teams picking at the back end of the draft can afford to grab a guy who needs some development before being a major contributor. The development of his midrange game during his sophomore season could prove the key to him being the third Michigan first-rounder in this draft.

HELLO THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONTENT TODAY BECAUSE OF TERROR SO MUCH TERROR

BUT HERE YOU GO

And you can't have one without the other…

GROUP OF DEAD AMIRITE

6/26/2014 – USA 0, Germany 1 – 1-1-1, 4 points, second place group G

In the aftermath of what quite a lot of people are calling Best Loss Ever there's a kind of dissonance. We lost; we advanced. Soccer luddites are persnickety about it in the annoying way that fills my Twitter timeline with backlash to a meme I'm only aware of because of the backlash. And yes while any baseball fan who's like "but you lost" should be tossed into a woodchipper, they're not entirely wrong.

There is something a bit unsatisfying about putting your guts in a blender for 55 minutes, turning it up to "pulverize" for 25 more, and then finally having the pressure release when the Ghana goalie decides that catching is for people who get paid. When he bats the ball directly to the Best Player In The World, he scores a goal so stupid nobody even celebrates it. Ronaldo didn't celebrate a goal that put his team up in the 80th minute. If it's not the dumbest goal ever scored at a World Cup, it is in the top ten.

So, yeah. Pile all the masculine guitar riffs and stony anthem game face you want into the USA's escape from the Group of Death. Pile them into a bowl for my face. I crave them all. Give me Dempsey photoshopped onto everything. It was a bit of an escape, though.

And that's fine! We aren't that good at this soccer business yet. We're quite good at not getting sent off in the first 20 minutes of the World Cup. We're quite good at not needing a literal convoy of money to be sent from the homeland in a partially successful attempt to abort all-out rebellion.

The money owed to Ghana's players travelling through Brasilia, to the hotel, in a convoy (Photo via @rede_globo) pic.twitter.com/bcEu0SBHgP#GHA

— John Bennett (@JohnBennettBBC) June 26, 2014

This is not the kind of asset you think about when sports are intra-country things. It turns out that having your shit together is a skill. The USA got out of the Group of Death because we pay our taxes, both literally and metaphorically.

But what happens when you're a guy who feels pretty good about not waiting until April 15th this year and you're up against some dude who got them in by February?

-------------------------------------

this either happened in the 68th or 91st minute

You spent a lot of time being impressed with how organized that guy is. Like, he pulls out that Franklin Planner your mom gave you when you were 15 and it is battered. He sends thank you notes. He has a meticulously organized collection of all his Halloween costumes dating back to 1988 (Alf, if you're wondering). And he is where he is supposed to be all the time.

In the preview I said that Germany looks like the hypothetical end point of what USA soccer will be. While that may be thousands of years in the future, that seemed pretty on-point as the Germans outclassed the USA in one area in particular: the high press.

Trying to win the ball back high up the field has been one of the primary tactical trends of the last decade. Spain and Barcelona—often one and the same—are widely credited for that shift, as both adopted a relentlessly possession-based style predicated on the fact that the opponent can't win if they don't have the ball. When it works, it's metronomically ruthless, as Spain's three straight major tournament wins demonstrate.

Everything is a copycat league, so high pressing has become a defining characteristic of soccer. Teams either can or cannot do it and can or cannot cope with it. Germany can do it; Germany can cope with it. The US is… working on it. They could barely touch the ball in the first 10 minutes, but came back to fight the Germans nearly equally for the rest of that half.

Touches in the first 10 minutes of first half: GER 147, #USMNT 31. In last 35 minutes: GER 301, #USMNT 256.

— Paul Carr (@PCarrESPN) June 26, 2014

In the second half, things fell back to those first ten minutes, but it wasn't for lack of trying by the US. The US flew high up the press, trying desperately to get one of the Aimless Upfield Punts that generally result when high pressure hits home. But Germany wouldn't cooperate, with Neuer casually dribbling past a charging USA player and dumping it back to the other side of the field.

Howard and the USA had far less success and far more AUPs. Here are unsuccessful passes from the goalies and central defenders of each team.

Germany left; USA right

Please mentally delete the two Germany AUPs from #1 that occur outside of the box, as they were Neuer rushing out to cut out potential USA through balls and not Germany losing possession. Once that's done, the AUP edge for the Germans is truly prodigious. Thus the USA's inability to get the ball in the second half: they gave it away a lot and couldn't force Germany into the same mistakes.

Maybe this was a tiredness thing. I don't think it was—or it was at least not entirely that. Ghana boxed the US in for most of that game, for one. And when the screws get turned up the US is still liable to get itself in trouble and boot the thing upfield for safety's sake. It is in our soccer blood; I have seen it for twelve years.

Klinsmann's challenge is to take the US from back to front and get them passing to each other despite Germans pouring across the border, and to turn up the pressure himself. He said this himself when he was hired. The Group of Death has shown us just how far they have come… and how far they have to go.

Bullets

What the pants man. Any remaining questions about whether it was a good idea to leave Landon Donovan at home have been resolved: hell no. Brad Davis, Donovan's obvious replacement, reprised his awful Turkey performance in his first start since the 2005 Gold Cup.

All you need to know: a guy whose one asset is a kick-ass left foot for crosses and whatnot was flipped to his off wing so the defensively meh Graham Zusi could check a German center-back who was 1) playing out of position and 2) annihilating the USA left flank.

Davis got lifted before the 60 minute mark, and that was 60 minutes too long. Presumably that will be the last time he dons a USA shirt. At least this World Cup only features the inexplicable inclusion in one start instead of three—I still shudder to think that Robbie Findlay started every game he was not suspended for in 2010.

Tactically, that was bizarre. The US was low on options, but should have gone with a defensively-oriented guy on the left and an attacking player on the right—Germany's left back was hesitant to get anywhere near the US box. Bedoya left, Diskerud right. Maybe Bedoya is exhausted, but an exhausted Bedoya would have more impact on the game than Davis.

Gonzo. Klinsmann's other tactical gambit went better. Everyone was terrified when Omar Gonzalez was announced as a starter, and Gonzo's first 15 minutes bore that out. He whiffed on a cross that easily could have resulted in a goal; he lost a couple German dudes on crosses in the box. (To be fair, it's super easy to lose German attackers.) His distribution out of the back was problematic.

As he came into the game, though, you saw flashes of why he was supposed to be the next big thing at the beginning of the last cycle. One of those Boateng crosses looked like an inch-perfect replica of the Ronaldo cross from the end of the Portugal game, down to the guy running onto the end of it; Gonzalez recovered and challenged so that the resulting header went harmlessly over the bar. It was a little like watching Jake Ryan close on someone with speed he shouldn't have.

In re: not having options from the first bullet. In almost all ways I am very positive on Klinsmann, but this USA roster has a number of obvious flaws that are biting now and will further bite in the event that the US gets to the quarters and one of their D-mids gets a yellow card suspension. There's no target guy to spot Altidore; there's no backup to Beckerman or Jones; the inclusion of Davis and Julian Green leaves the US desperately short on reasonable substitutes in a witheringly hot and humid tournament.

But seriously Klinsmann is A-OK. We got out of the group, and on his watch the US has acquired a number of promising dual-nationals. There are no Neven Subotic escapes on his watch, and the guys he's adding… well, you're college football fans. You know the importance of recruiting. Julian Green is a lottery ticket; Gedion Zelalem is a lottery ticket; you need lots of lottery tickets so you don't end up with a bench as short as the USA's in this tournament.

Meanwhile, I am 100% behind his attempt to revise the youth levels of USA soccer. When the U20s took on Spain they pressed like mofos for about 40 minutes and looked Spain's equal or better before they got torn apart, because Spain. That lets the USA know how far they have to go, but the only way to get on the level of elite teams is to organize your entire system around playing a technical, high-pressing style.

While he's not perfect, his supposed tactical deficiencies are overstated. He's led the US to a ton of landmark victories (beating Italy in Italy, winning in Azteca) and has at least reacted well to the situation when it was clear Beckerman needed to play with Jones. The adjustment to the 4-2-3-1 after Jozy went out was the right move against Portugal, and flipping Johnson to right back was a great move that prevented someone like Brad Evans or Tim Chandler from having to start.

If you say something bad about Beasley I will cut you. Again Beasley is hung out to dry by the narrowness of the USA's formation; in this game Jones was cut loose to shoot upfield so much more than he had been before, so the only guy he had covering for him was Davis and then Zusi. As a result he was exposed to constant two-on-ones on which the best option was to give Boateng space and time to cross. Things got better when Zusi flipped to his side, but he was still isolated quite a bit.

Beasley's not perfect, but why is he the guy constantly left on an island? Right. Because the only thing that happens is some guy gets in a cross from a middlingly dangerous position.

I bet Cameron returns for Belgium. He's more deft with the ball at his feet and in a game the USA is planning to win, having more of the ball will be important. Gonzalez would draw into the lineup if one of the defensive mids gets suspended, I'd imagine, with Cameron moving forward.

Bradley… man. He has improved since Ghana but he has not looked much like the potential breakout star everyone was hoping for. He'll get it together for Belgium. That's the ticket.

Belgium Stuff

happy trees

Don't read too much into their most recent game against South Korea. For one, Belgium was playing a bunch of subs with advancement assured. (The guy who got red-carded had about a 2% chance to see the field against the USA.) For two, South Korea has been a shambolic mess the whole way. They got blitzed 4-0 by Ghana before the tournament and only got a point in the World Cup because Russia's goalie decided to give 'em one.

In their other two games, Belgium left it late, scoring only with substitutes and only after the 70th minute. They dominated the Algeria game but could not provide much threat until one of Belgium's Bob Ross guys came on (Marouane Fellaini); the Russia game was dead even almost the whole way. Chelsea star Eden Hazard was anonymous until the final 15 minutes, when a tired Russia started allowing him space; he got to the most dangerous crossing area (inside the box on the endline) and set up a teammate for the winner.

Belgium is a lot like Germany. They play four center-backs due to a lack of quality full-backs; their offensive players are very talented and interchange frequently. Belgium is a bit more structured, and their Klose I-head-the-ball figure—Fellaini—is actually a midfielder(!).

The good news: the US has been pretty successful at cramming the middle of the field and forcing things to go around the outside, which Belgium isn't much suited for. The bad news: they flipped to a straight 4-4-2 with Fellaini and strapping 19-year-old Divock Origi up top when trailing late against a packed-in Algeria side and immediately pounded in goals from crosses to win.

Belgium is not Germany's match for the high pressing that stifled the USA in two of their three group matches. They've got a couple of winger types not particularly inclined to harass defenders. Unfortunately they've just provided their starting 11 plenty of rest and with the USA's ability to play it out of the back an obvious weakness they're likely to give it a shot.

A veritable flood. Congrats to Nik Stauskas, Mitch McGary, and Glenn Robinson III as they embark on their NBA careers. I'm not even going to linger on the fact that if the Pistons didn't get jumped in the draft order their shooting-desperate butts would have been sitting at #8, where Stauskas went to the Kings. I'm not going to just stand over here banging my head against the wall and moaning "whyyyyy."

I will take off my ratty, old Pistons hat and put my Michigan one on so I can be happy:

Coach Beilein, the only person left in the green room, waiting for Jordan Morgan to be picked #TheMichiganDifferencepic.twitter.com/c9sBbq6FNf

— William Locke (@william_locke24) June 27, 2014

Morgan signed a free agent contract with the Timberwolves.

Meanwhile Caris LeVert is projected as a lottery pick next year. #welcometothefactory

It's not impossible. A pretty stunning counterpoint to Michigan's claims that their issues with selling tickets are everyone's issues:

Hats off to #PennState fans. School sold out allotment of Over 21,000 student season tix all bought in just SIX minutes!

— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) June 27, 2014

Penn State's fan culture has remained that enthused through all of that. There's something to learn there. Or we could just keep hiring people from the Knicks with no clue about college sports or Michigan.

Keeping the band together. Michigan's three basketball assistants have signed contract extensions. Finally, someone spends money on something that they definitely should.

The other draft. The NHL Draft starts tonight; recruit Dylan Larkin is likely to go off the board in the first round, so there are a number of "here's this guy" articles. USA Today:

Larkin might be the safest pick because he's a gifted skater who could be a team's No. 2 center for 10 years.

"He is probably the most fluid skater in the draft," said Dan Marr, director of NHL Central Scouting. "He has a powerful stride, and he is also an intelligent player."

Red Line Report has him going 16th to… sigh… Columbus.

The Washington Post also had an interesting piece about how college players are underrated relative to their draft positions:

Of the players drafted from 2006 to 2009, 14.7 percent of players from Major Junior have hit that benchmark [of 40 NHL games]; players from collegiate programs, on the other hand, have hit that mark 17.1 percent of the time. And those players from Major Junior are picked close to a round earlier on average than those playing in college (97th pick vs. 121th pick).

This is not a huge surprise. College players play in a tougher environment against older players, in which points translate more readily to higher levels:

Despite this, college prospects are actually getting drafted less often even as the percentage of players in the NHL from the NCAA ranks hits all time highs—30 percent as of last year. Meanwhile:

A study of players selected in the NHL draft from 2000 to 2006 shows that an incredible 70 percent of U.S. college players taken in the first round went on to play at least 300 NHL games (100 or more games for goalies drafted in the first round) compared to 57 percent of all other players selected in the first round through the same time period.

There is a Moneyball opportunity here for any GM who isn't a neanderthal.

That's going well, then. Stewart Mandel's final take on the O'Bannon case: there was something there to argue, but instead the NCAA trotted out a bunch of empty overpaid suits. ESPN's Tom Farrey was willing to declare "Game Over" at halftime. Grantland's Charles Pierce titles his story simply "How It Ends."

Etc.: Michigan plans almost $350 million in construction. Here's a charming story about bird shit at Michigan. Why our brains cannot accept randomness.

via Michael Shamburger

While Michigan didn't quite end up getting their entire starting five from the 2013 national title game into the first round, last night's NBA Draft proved a major success for the program. Here's an overview of what went down last night; next week, I'll take a closer look at how each U-M draftee fits in with his new team.

Nik Stauskas, #8 Overall, Sacramento Kings

Nik Stauskas went off the board at #8 to Sacramento, becoming the highest Wolverine selection since Dallas picked Robert Traylor (RIP) sixth in 1998 before trading him to Milwaukee. Stauskas, resplendent in a suit that probably cost more than my car, immediately celebrated with a perfectly executed three-goggle handshake with his dad. (His subsequent handshake with John Beilein wasn't quite so flawless.)

Afterward, Stauskas was asked about Michigan by someone who clearly never went to Michigan, because Zingerman's is way too expensive for students and the Art Fair takes place when almost nobody is on campus. He handled it well:

Q.  Nik, Michigan is a very good school academically, great campus like Zingerman's, the art festival in Ann Arbor.  Was it an easy decision?  There must be a tough decision to say, I want to leave early, because it is a great school.  Was there part of you that said, I should get my degree here and then go to the NBA? 
NIK STAUSKAS:  I definitely thought about it, but the biggest thing for me after this season was I felt like I was ready.  I thought I had improved enough throughout the year, and I had made a lot of strides in my game and made the necessary improvements to make that jump to the next level. 
Like I said, this has been a dream of mine my entire life.  The fact that I had the opportunity to do it now, I feel like this is the right time.  I understand that I could always go back and get my education after, which I fully plan on doing. 

It's great to hear that Stauskas plans to finish earning his degree down the road. And yes, Nik, you were ready.

In the end, it turned out Stauskas separated himself quite a bit from the two players believed to be his biggest competition as shooting guards projected to go in the mid-to-late lottery. Kentucky's James Young went to the Celtics at #17, while MSU's Gary Harris surprisingly plunged all the way to #19—he'll end up in Denver after a draft-day trade with Chicago.

Mitch McGary, #21 Overall, Oklahoma City Thunder

One of the most entertaining aspects of draft night is watching Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski announce every pick on Twitter well before the actual picks are announced, sometimes getting so far as three picks ahead of the telecast. Rarely does anyone scoop Wojo; when they do, sometimes it's because they're wrong.

So when John Beilein tweeted this out minutes before Oklahoma City selected Mitch McGary at #21 overall, it'd prove to be the second-greatest thing Beilein did last night (TEASER):

Another Wolverine about to go up on the board. #GoBlue#WeWork

— John Beilein (@JohnBeilein) June 27, 2014

John Beilein is better at your job than you are. There's no shame in this. Just accept it.

Meanwhile, MLive's Brendan Quinn passes along this fantastic quote from OKC GM Sam Presti, generally regarded as one of the best in the business:

"The last thing that is really, really impressive to us, and the reason that we value him even more, is that he's an incredible teammate -- just an incredible teammate," Presti said. "That was on display during the season when he missed a significant amount of time.

"I felt like I was scouting him on the bench while he wasn't playing. The way that he engaged with his teammates, his support was unwavering, his enthusiasm was unwavering. Combine that with his skill-set and and his intangibles, and that's a Thunder player."

Yes.

If the Thunder don't use a future pick on Andrew Dakich, I'll be sorely disappointed.

Glenn Robinson III, #40 Overall, Minnesota Timberwolves

Wojo cruelly tweeted that Oklahoma City was considering GRIII with their second pick of the first round, which was not to be. In a really deep draft—Wichita State's Cleanthony Early lasted all the way to #34—he dropped to the tenth pick of the second round, but the team that nabbed him valued him much higher than that:

Robinson III 26th or 27th on #Twolves board, per Flip.

— Darren Wolfson (@DarrenWolfson) June 27, 2014

At GRIII's draft party, his mother took a moment to note that this was the plan all along:

When the waiting was finally over, after the Timberwolves had finished the drama, Clay [Robinson's mother], along with Robinson took the podium.

She read a letter he wrote in high school about how he was going to miss school but that he was onto bigger and better things.

That in a couple of years, he would be playing in the NBA.

He called it.

With Robinson's selection, Michigan—as expected—ended with three players taken in the draft, tied with UCLA for the most among any school. However...

Jordan Morgan, Undrafted Free Agent, Minnesota Timberwolves

...that didn't mean Beilein's night was over. The last person remaining in the green room, Michigan's coach waited out every pick in the hope that a team would take a second-round flier on Jordan Morgan:

John Beilein will not leave until all of his players are drafted. pic.twitter.com/dH6WCBK1ba

— Daniel Feldman (@danfeldman31) June 27, 2014

John Beilein is the best. The absolute best.

Morgan didn't get picked, but he'll get a chance to earn a roster spot alongside GRIII, as he told Quinn today that he's joining the Timberwolves as an undrafted free agent. He'll get his shot on Minnesota's Summer League squad; they start play on July 12th, and you can find the whole schedule here. Even if Morgan doesn't get a spot on the Timberwolves, it's a great opportunity for him to audition for other NBA teams and scouts from other leagues.

How About The Pistons?

While Detroit lost their first-round pick (don't ask, or this vein in my head starts doing funny things), they used their second-rounder on Colorado guard Spencer Dinwiddie, considered a potential first-round prospect last year before coming back to school and suffering an ACL injury. How would I grade the pick?

via @Jose3030

A+.

THE ESSENTIALS

WIN OR DIE. Image via a "spritegirl".

THE THEM: IT CAME FROM GERMINAL BEERSCHOT

Belgium is ludicrously talented for a nation with about the same population as Michigan, especially since this is not a country like Holland that has a rich history in the game. The Flyin' Waffles haven't so much as made either the World Cup or the European Championships since 2002. This has not stopped them from growing a generation of talent that has seen them rocket up the FIFA rankings and the bookies' odds. Pre-tourney, Belgium was fifth-favorites.

This is because the team is full of club-level stars. If you took each World Cup team and sold them on the transfer market right now, only Brazil would cost more.

Part of that is because Belgium is so danged young. The other part is because they are good.

This hasn't really shown in the group stages. The Waffles haven't scored before the 70th minute of any of their games despite fielding an all-star team in a group that was kindling waiting for a match.

There are two main reasons for this. One is the absence of striker Christian Benteke, who was injured just before the World Cup. Romelu Lukaku, his replacement, is a big name himself, but for whatever reason the team seems to lack je ne sais quoi when he's the main guy. The second is Belgium's lack of outside backs. Without overlapping runs from them, teams have been free to double up on Belgium's talented wingers.

There hasn't been a whole lot to learn about Belgium in two of their three games. They faced an Algeria team that was parking the bus virtually the whole time, and in the group finale against South Korea they played a heavily rotated lineup against what may have been the worst team in Brazil.

The Russia match is the closest thing to what will transpire against the US. Russia had half the possession and matched the Belgians in shots, finally ceding a goal in the 88th minute as the defenders on Eden Hazard faltered.

And then there was the friendly about a year ago in which Belgium thrashed the USA backline to a 4-2 win. The US started a back four of Beasley-Goodson-Gonzalez-Cameron in that one and Christian Benteke, who is out of this World Cup, was around to harrass the USA… but if they play anything like they did in that friendly it's going to be ugly.

GOALIE: Thibaut Courtois has spent the last three years as Atletico Madrid's goalie, during which time Madrid's stingy defense saw them win La Liga, shockingly. He's a strength.

Kompany and Vermalen (background) are doubtful, apparently

DEFENSE: Health issues abound. Anthony Vanden Borre, the Zangeif-lookin' mofo you may have noticed menacing his way around the field against South Korea, is out with an injury. While he was not a likely starter he may have been called on as a substitute if Belgium found themselves trailing; as a natural outside back he offers more going forward than their other options there.

That's because the rest of those options are center-backs. Like Germany, Belgium have entered this tournament determined to play a back four entirely consisting of naturally central players. In Belgium's  case it's because they have a pile of excellent CBs and no fullbacks.

The first-choice central defenders are supposed to be Vincent Kompany and Thomas Vermalen, but both of them are nursing injuries. Kompany has a groin issue, Vermalen a hamstring problem. Kompany missed the South Korea game, for whatever that means. It does sound like he's having issues that might make him a risk his coach may not want to take:

"Now we wait for the reaction, the training and the development day by day, but you saw the last game too – he tried hard in the last training session and had to stop after half an hour"

While I can't find a quote for this anywhere, Vermalen is said to be "doubtful" by anyonewho has an article on Belgian health.

If one of those guys can't go, expect 36-year-old Daniel Van Buyten to get a start. Van Buyten has played all of Belgium's games so far; at 6'6" he is obviously a force in the air, but he may be susceptible to getting outrun. He is a backup at Bayern Munich who's gotten about a dozen appearances per year for the last three. If both are out Zenit's Nicolas Lombaerts is likely to draw in. He's is a downgrade but only because Kompany has a claim to be the world's best central defender. He actually scored against the USA in 2011, but that USA lineup had Howard and Dempsey and no one else who will play tomorrow.

As previously mentioned, the outside backs are a bit of a weak point. Toby Alderwereld is the right back; he's a backup center back for Atletico Madrid. The left back could be Vermalen but is more likely to be Jan Vertonghen. Vertonghen had an up and down group stage, giving up the penalty that put Algeria up and scoring the lone goal against South Korea.

These guys aren't hoofers or anything…

these are talented technical footballers who impress at centre-back because of their ability to bring the ball out of defence, so they certainly aren’t useless clodhoppers. Amazingly, Alderweireld, Vermaelen and Vertonghan had almost identical footballing educations, raised at Germinal Beerschot before moving across the border to Ajax, where they were encouraged to play proactively in a high defensive line, and bring the ball out of defence intelligently.

…but while they can help the team get it out of the back, overlapping is not in the cards. Against Russia they barely approached the final third.

Belgium outside backs versus Russia

Belgian outside backs did get a bit more forward in the other games. If the US gets trapped in their own end with 30% of the possession or just flat sucks, fullbacks popping up on offense will be a symptom, not a cause.

MIDFIELD: Belgium is likely to field Alex Witsel in their version of the Beckerman role. Insert the usual "except he's paid a bucket of money by a major Euro club" here. In this case it's oil-gorged Russian outfit Zenit St Petersburg. Witsel as described by Zonal Marking:

The primary holder is Axel Witsel, a strong, reliable and commanding midfielder that doesn’t advance into attack, but can move up the pitch to shut down opponents and leave space between the lines – as mentioned, the centre-backs deal with anyone in that zone.

The primary attacking midfielder will be Kevin De Bruyne, who shredded the US with through balls in that friendly and has easily been Belgium's most dangerous offensive player aside when allowed to play in the center of the field behind the striker. (He was anonymous as a right sided midfielder for about 60 minutes against Algeria, then became a huge threat as soon as substitutions shoved him into the middle.)

The third midfielder is in question. Marouane Fellaini made a major impact in the Algeria game as an out-and-out striker looking to pound things in with his head. He also scored a thundering header against the US a year ago. He was deployed against Russia in Belgium's most important group game, so it seems like he'd be the obvious pick. But then there's a calf injury that forced him off the field early yesterday. That would open the door for Mousa Dembele, except he's suffering from basically the same injury. The Ghana witch doctor may be on our side now.

Anyway, pick between these gentlemen:

They’re very different options – Fellaini is a physical destroyer who lacks guile on the ball, and Dembele is a peculiar, converted forward who is excellent at dribbling forward and evading challenges, but offers surprisingly little end product, preferring to keep his passing simple.

Fellaini's ability to hit things hard with his head gives him the edge, health being equal.

De Bruyne (left) and Lukaku (right) haven't been able to hook up so far

FORWARD: Belgium's been looking for something more impressive than what 21-year-old Chelsea forward Romelu Lukaku's been able to offer so far, but they don't have great options. Kevin Mirallas is not a physical presence at 5'10" and Divock Origi is promising but just 19.

The wingers will be problems. Dries Mertens has consistently gotten into dangerous areas coming in from the right.

Mertens vs Russia

The area just inside the box towards the end line that Mertens got to repeatedly is assist central.

Premier League assist density, last three years

Mertens could not find the final ball against Russia, or his strikers weren't in a spot to run on to it. Mertens may just be a guy who isn't too good at making goals right now.

Even so the US will be playing with fire if they allow anything similar—Russia finally got bit when Eden Hazard, the left winger, got into that spot on the other side of the box and set up Origi for an easy slam home. Hazard is the most expensive and highest-regarded of any of Belgium's players—he was just named Chelsea's player of the year at the ripe old age of 23—but he hasn't had much impact with the national team. He's scored just six times in 47 caps and for much of the tournament he's been anonymous. That's where Belgium's lack of full-backs really shows. Defenses can overplay him and take him away. Expect the same from the US, with a defensive mid shaded to him.

THE US(A)

Facing down another 4-3-3 with super dangerous wingers and question marks at outside back, expect a reprise of the Portugal game plan: a 4-5-1 with defensive responsibility on the flanks and Johnson bombing forward in an effort to exploit the lack of defense provided by the 4-3-3.

GOALIE: Howard.

DEFENSE: Beasley, Besler, Cameron, Johnson.

Beasley and Besler are locks if healthy; Johnson is going to start. There is a faint chance that he gets moved up into the midfield, allowing Yedlin or Chandler to start. Faint, though.

While Gonzalez had his best game for the US in a long time against Germany, Cameron is likely to return to the lineup. He provides more ability with the ball at his feet and the USA is going to need more possession than they did against Germany in a game they actually have to win. Also, his mobility will be a major asset against Hazard.

The US has a little bit of a luxury here, as they can afford to give their outside backs cover since Belgium won't be overlapping much. Job one for the US outside backs and midfielders is to keep Belgium's wingers out of the danger zone. If they cross, they cross. The US has decided to live and die with crosses by jamming the middle, and with Fellaini in question all the more reason to double down.

time for meep meep?

MIDFIELD: Beckerman, Jones, Bedoya, Bradley, Yedlin

Beckerman, Jones, Bradley are locks. Jones has been the USA's player of the tournament so far. This is the game Bradley's touch returns, I promise. Beckerman is going to be absolutely critical as he strives to prevent De Bruyne from playing Belgians in on Howard's goal. If he can quiet the Belgian #10 as the US reaches the quarters hell have cemented an unlikely place in USMNT lore.

The wing spots are in doubt. Davis was invisible and lifted early. Zusi's touch has been off and his service poor aside from the winner against Ghana; Bedoya seems like he's about ready to fall over and expire on the regular. Given what we've seen so far, Bedoya makes sense. He's the only guy who's given you two-way play on the left this tourney, and he's relatively fresh.

Aaand… this could be a spot where Klinsmann does something wacky like start Yedlin. It's easy to see Yedlin zooming past the Belgians' left back, whoever it is, into the assist zone he got to for the second against Portugal. Yedlin's speed will also help the US cover on Hazard. Meanwhile any individual defensive issues he has are not likely to come into play.

Zusi is of course a possibility.

FORWARD: Dempsey

via

Well, yeah.

What about Jozy? There have been reports he's doing some running, and Klinsmann has said he's "very optimistic" again:

‘‘We are very optimistic,” said US coach Jurgen Klinsmann. “Every day is a big step forward with Jozy. It’s 11 days now and it’s looking better every day, so we are optimistic we have him being a part of the Belgium game.’’

"A part" is one thing. A start that might go 120 minutes with a still-lingering muscle injury is unlikely.

SUBS: If the US finds itself down they'll have to go for it, so expect some sort of midfielder-for-striker swap with Beckerman the most likely to go out since he offers the least going forward. This is a recording.

In a tie game pushing towards extra-time, the US might lift one of the wingers for Wondolowski, and then if things get very deep Dempsey will probably be cashed out, allowing Johannsson to enter.

If the US is fortunate enough to be protecting a lead, bringing in Gonzalez will make sense. Fellaini is truly terrifying in the air, and Belgium's response to Algeria suggests they will go 4-4-2 with Fellaini up front if they need to. Whether that's a straight swap for Cameron or something else I don't know, but whatever it is it should not be Gonzalez as some sort of ostrich defensive mid.

THE REF

Algerian Djamel Haimoudi has drawn the game. He did the most recent African Cup of Nations final and a Confed Cup semi; so far in this tournament he's done the Costa Rica-England and Holland-Australia games.

The latter featured a pretty ridiculous PK call for Australia when a Holland defender's arm hit a cross that came from about two feet away and seemed an obvious case of ball-to-hand. On the other hand, Haumoudi has a number of opportunities to bite on dives in the box and passed.

I'd mention cards but at this point it's clear that the refs have been instructed to be very lenient with yellows. That's no doubt an attempt to keep suspensions down since yellows now clear after the quarters instead of the group stage.

KEYS OTHER THAN SCORING MORE GOALPOINTS

Good goddamn Bradley. This is not the Michael Bradley I know. The above is. Bradley's history with the US when allowed to forward is one of constant activity, through balls that come off, and late runs into the box that are a danger few outfits are adequately prepared for.

He hasn't exactly been terrible in this tournament, but he has not provided the attacking edge he has for the last four years. It's probably just bad luck and bad form at the wrong time, but it's unlikely the US wins this game without Bradley having a hand in a USA goal.

Fitness will be tested… again. The US got an extra day of rest compared to Germany, but unfortunately they are going up against a team that rested a bunch of guys in their final group match.

However, the tests will go both ways. Belgium has a number of guys in various states of injury. If Kompany or Vermalen or Fellaini play there's a chance that one of them has to use up a substitution early, and as the US learned four years ago you really do not want to have to use early substitutes in a game that can go 120 minutes.

Keep the ball, have the ball, keep and have the ball. The US has gotten boxed in by two of its three opponents so far, and while the situations they found themselves in (up a goal thirty seconds in and soon without Jozy; playing Germany needing to not lose by lots) lent themselves to that kind of cagey play, now it's win or die time.

This means keeping the dang ball and playing Belgium like an equal. The good news is that Belgium is not particularly good at pressing. Algeria and South Korea abandoned any idea of possession pre-game, but a not particularly technical Russian side had exactly as much of the game as Belgium did, with relatively few Aimless Upfield Punts.

Center backs and goalie unsuccessful passes, Russia vs Belgium

The Shin Guardian's take on Belgium's panini game:

Defensively, Belgium claim to be a pressing team but that’s a dangerous description for it. They’ll occasionally go through spells when they’ll press high when commanding the run of play; but, if not, they’ll usually just retreat behind the halfway line and attempt to loosely swarm the ball. <– i.e. not pressing defense. Sampaoli would be mortified.

The first pass or two out of the back will be crucial, especially without Jozy. Bradley should be dropping deep to provide an outlet on the regular.

Fullback offense. The US fullbacks didn't have much impact on the Germany game aside from a couple of slaloming Beasley runs on which Run DMB seemed a decade younger, but this was largely because the US couldn't hold the ball long enough for them to get upfield. Once the US clears Belgium's pressure, the best offense they'll have is their speedy wing backs against the Belgium flanks.

WIN THE GAME. #winthegame

SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

DIVBYZERO

Previously: Last year's profiles, CB Brandon Watson, CB Jabrill Peppers, LB Jared Wangler, LB Chase Winovich, LB Noah Furbush.

Michael Ferns is the recruit most likely to be known by random people who watch Good Morning America or read the kind of sports blog that's mostly pictures of taut young ladies. The former know Ferns because he did a very nice thing.

…Ferns took a sweep 52 yards down the left sideline and had nothing in the way of him and a touchdown.

But he slowed down as he approached the end zone and walked out of bounds at the 1-yard line. …

Two days earlier, freshman Logan Thompson’s father, Paul, died from a sudden stroke. Once McLean learned that Logan would indeed suit up for Friday’s game against Edison, McLean began to formulate a plan to help his freshman wide receiver “honor his father.”

Secretly, McLean instructed Ferns and the other skill players, if given the chance, to stop short on a touchdown so they could get Logan in. … McLean simplified the isolation play call with three words: “Just follow Ferns.”

“Mike and the line opened up a huge hole for Logan and he ran it right in,” McLean said.

The latter group of people knows Ferns because he's a baller, as Ferns posted Mississippi State's best effort to his Instagram account.

He did not appear to be swayed.

He was not even moved when Mississippi State asserted that they had a truckload of swag in Stark-Vegas.

Before he was twice-viral, Ferns was a big-time prospect playing at a small high school near the Ohio-West Virginia border who was picking up offers super early. Notre Dame issued him his second before he'd finished his sophomore year of high school, with Stanford, OSU, PSU, and Michigan following suit within a few weeks. After a round of visits, Ferns was down to Michigan, ND, and Penn State. He pulled the trigger in early August, with almost 20 months to go before signing day.

This early recruitment has taken off in the last few years, but the difference with Ferns is that teams were eager to have him on campus and have him commit—these days an "offer" often deserves scare quotes. Ferns was a sure thing, though:

“He showed up at 6-3, 220,” Saint Clairsville coach Brett McLean said today of Ferns, who is up to 235 pounds. “He played junior high football for us as a quarterback in the seventh and eighth grade. We knew we had a special player.”

He'll gradually add 10-15 pounds over the course of his career, but he's about as physically ready as you can be as a freshman, and he has been for years.

As a result, Ferns was placed in everyone's top 100 early before dropping about a hundred spots most places. (ESPN, as per usual, moves people less.) Because of the early commitment, small school, and inopportunely timed injuries, there's surprisingly little scouting out there for a consensus top-200 guy. But here goes anyway.

Ferns gets described as a "throwback" a lot, and while any highly-touted white linebacker is going to get hit with that term Ferns earned it. He played through the state playoffs his junior year severely compromised by injury. Bucknuts' Mark Porter:

“He is a throwback type. He is very physical. Obviously, everyone watched him play hurt in the playoffs and play through the pain and show off his toughness there. I think he could be an All-Big Ten linebacker up at Michigan.”

Mike Farrell of Rivals didn't quite invoke "throwback" but offered a slightly backhanded compliment in that vein:

"He is the stereotypical Big Ten linebacker," Farrell said. "He is explosive to the football and takes great angles. He is hard-nosed and physically impressive. He is exactly what you expect when you think of a major prospect from this area at that position."

It was when Ferns struggled through the early part of the Rivals Five-Star challenge before withdrawing with a leg injury that Rivals dropped him, stating the backhanded part of the above quote directly:

…at his best when he is playing downhill and stuffing the run. Camp/7-on-7 settings do not showcase that element of the game, but they give a good sense of how a player moves in space and plays coverage. Those are the aspects of Ferns' game he needs to work on. He had trouble changing direction and turning to run with backs and tight ends down the field.

They also mentioned that flaw after an earlier Rivals camp that got Ferns his invite to their fancycamp, saying he was "stiff" in one on ones and such.

While both of those evals came in situations where only one set of eyes was there, there are echoes of that criticism a couple other places. ESPN mentions that he is "not real fluid opening his hips" as he attempts to get depth; they do credit him for being instinctive and "athletic enough to get to his spot" in zone. Allen Trieu puts in a mention that he "needs to work on coverage" in a brief scouting report.

That is the main—seemingly only—drawback. Everyone else praises his "great size and good closing speed," or things along those lines. Trieu's report mentions his track career and loves everything except the coverage:

…ready for the college game. As a track kid, he has the straight line speed to run down ball carriers and is great when he’s coming forward… he’s a great blitzer and run defender.

247's Steve Wiltfong likes his size, versatility, and even those drops:

“He is a guy who gets into his drops quickly. He can survey what’s going on in front of him quickly. He can get to the ball quickly. He is a great athlete and a lot of top schools were recruiting him as a tight end.  … He brings great size to the linebacker position.”

ESPN:

Tall, well built with great bulk and solid functional strength. Possesses good range and straight-line speed to go sideline-to-sideline.

Is at his best filling downhill inside the tackles. Plays smart, reads keys and sees plays develop leading to very few false steps. Quick to get off the mark and fit his inside run gaps. Generates good short-area power. Plays square with adequate leverage and is difficult to turn out of the hole at his size. …appears much more effective pursuing downhill than laterally.

Tim Sullivan:

He has the mass to stop runners dead in their tracks, but is also athletic enough to make plays on the edge of the line. He has good hands and is very knowledgeable between the lines. …  not the type of player to chase running backs down outside the box. … classic run-stuffer more so than a spread-capable linebacker at this stage in his development."

Mississippi State:

… baller. Balls out with truckloads of swag. When balling out, balls further, reaching new frontiers of balling. Skee Lo was thinking of this guy. …Swagtruck baller. Six-hundred star recruit.

Thanks, Mississippi State.

So… Ferns is a guy who goes and hits people hard if they don't run away from him.

Ferns enrolled in January. Alarmingly, a hamstring injury slowed his progress. Count up the "injury" mentions in this article and… yeah. Two is probably a coincidence. Four is getting a bit alarming.

As a result of the hamstring, Ferns was held out much of the spring and did not seem particularly close to breaking into the two deep what with Michigan returning five players with meaningful experience.

Given that depth chart it would make sense to redshirt Ferns. Michigan has Ryan, Gedeon, Morgan, Bolden, and probably Mike McCray in front of him at the MLB and WLB spots. Linebackers tend to play on special teams, though. He's a strong candidate for Argh Why U No Redshirt of the year.

Etc.: Graduated high school in three years. Had a 4.0 at one point. The Pattern: yup.

Why Desmond Morgan? Ferns is a high-IQ thumper that limits YAC and played all over the field as a high school player at a small school. This fits closely with Morgan, who was actually the QB for his high school team. Both are at their best reading and going hard in restricted spaces.

Ferns is much higher ranked but Morgan has clearly outperformed his recruiting rankings in college; while no one will confuse Morgan with a coverage specialist he has generally gotten to the right spot at the right time for Michigan. He's adequate or maybe a little bit better there.

A potential area where this comparison falls down: a lot of people say Ferns is an excellent blitzer and has some of that vertical explosion Jake Ryan does.

Guru Reliability: Medium. Near-consensus on the rankings but injury held him out or slowed him down at some critical points where he could have confirmed his early offer flood and top-100 rankings. Played for a small school against iffy competition.

Variance: Medium. Advanced physically (thus the early offers), little positional projection, high IQ. On the other hand, low level of competition and he has had a lot of injuries, to the point where he may actually be injury-prone instead of just unlucky.

Ceiling: High-minus. Seems to lack the bit of athleticism necessary to warrant a "high"—like Morgan may top out as a B+ player. Does have that A- upside if he can blitz.

General Excitement Level: Moderate-plus. I'm a little down on Ferns relative to his rankings because he can't seem to stay healthy. If that recedes there's a good chance he contributes.

Projection: Doesn't redshirt, causing my mandibles to clack angrily every time I look at a depth chart by class for the next four years. Sees special teams time almost exclusively.

In year two, backs up either Gedeon or Bolden at MLB; will take a run at a starting spot vacated by Bolden in year three, and then has another shot a year after. Pretty much exclusively an MLB/WLB prospect, with MLB more likely since it somewhat limits exposure to coverage issues.

RIP, Bobby Womack. The man who provided the Michigan Replay theme, and eventually our podcast's, has died.

via

The whole thing is here; Womack was far more famous for doing a bunch of other things, but around here he's my ringtone. May the program once again live up to the awesomeness of the horns.

NHL draft stuff. Incoming F Dylan Larkin may have even gone a little higher than expected when he was drafted by (possibly) YOUR Detroit Red Wings at 15th overall. That's good for Michigan, as Detroit is generally patient with their prospects—so patient that it drives their fans nuts—and the friendship between Red and Mike Babcock should prevent Larkin from departing until he's good and ready.

The only other Michigan player to get drafted was Zach Nagelvoort, who went to the Oilers in the middle rounds. Quite a rise for him to go from "guy who had to leave his NAHL team to get playing time" to draft pick.

With the rest of Michigan's class kind of a patchwork of overagers, it's not a huge surprise that the rest of the guys got passed over. Dexter Dancs had a shot, but no one else was even first-time eligible IIRC.

Michigan could have a big 2015, with three incoming players under consideration for first-round picks. Kyle Connor was the second-leading scorer in the USHL; U17 D Zach Werenski is good enough that Michigan is trying to bring him in right now; NTDP defenseman Nick Boka was one of the first invites to that program in his year. Chris Dilks has all three on his "A" list of guys he's seen who have a shot at the first round.

With Cooper Marody and Brendan Warren also coming off good years, Michigan should have five current and future players called around this time next year.

That explains that. I'm pretty sure we are all already aware that the reason Michigan backed off of top 100 MN RB Jeff Jones was questions about his eligibility, but if there were any questions about those questions they should no longer be in question:

The highest-rated recruit to commit to Minnesota during the Internet recruiting era has reportedly failed to register an ACT score high enough for enrollment this fall, according to a report from the Star Tribune.

Running back Jeff Jones needed to improve his ACT score in order to offset a rough year academically as a sophomore at Minneapolis Washburn; the NCAA determines eligibility through a process that combines report card grade-point averages as well as standardized test scores. As the Star Tribune's Joe Christensen previously reported, Jones improved his ACT score with an April test, but needed to do so again on June 14.

He's trying some late hijinks with online classes and such that Michigan's admissions would almost certainly reject, so… yeah. Michigan accurately projected that he had very little chance of suiting up this fall.

O'Bannon's over. The trial is over after three weeks, and despite the presence of Mary Sue Coleman and Dave Brandon on the NCAA's witness list neither appeared. No doubt whatever testimony they had would have been redundant with various other president/AD types who took the stand to explain that the NCAA was good and college was good, but I was looking forward to this Claudia Wilken person giving Brandon the stink-eye for assertions that, to be fair, would have been no less ridiculous than a bunch of things we already heard.

To me, nothing sums up the NCAA's argument better than Mark Emmert responding to a question about his 1.6 million dollar salary:

Emmert: "My salary is set by the executive committee who hires compensation experts that establish benchmarks."

— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) June 19, 2014

You can justify anything if you hire a consultant to do so, and will try to if you are the kind of person who can thrive in an organization as orthogonal to reality as the NCAA. I have no doubt the parade of ludicrously-compensated suits the NCAA paraded in front of the court genuinely believes themselves to be agents for good in a corrupt world. You cannot get a man to understand something his job prohibits him from understanding, after all.

I have real problems with the executive class of the NCAA acting like they're running a hedge fund in everything they do and then expecting us to believe the things that come out of their mouths, and eagerly await whatever comeuppance the legal system can contrive. It won't be enough, but whatever.

Speaking of that. Delany is "driven" to have the Big Ten Basketball championship in MSG despite the fact that it is booked during championship week.

Greatest comment ever. Great satire can be mistaken for genuine sentiment… and I think this comment left on an O'Bannon wrap-up post on CBS is satire.

ONLY one man can save colleges..  save sports and  save the country

and that man is NICK SABAN

jealous sports nuts as host of sports talk in knoxville... saying that nick saban hated women and is a bully

usually GREED MONSTER  guys  after they get rich and  popular dumps their wives for a younger

and more pretty woman.. NOT saban  still married to the same one  since 21 ...  and  not only  rich and popular  but also good looking for women...... THAT is  proof that saban is not  what  these insane jealous;nuts try to make him out to be..

the best thing for america is  to make saban the dictator of the country  just like he has done with  bama  football and the same great success  for the country will  come .... all people  ,must obey saban  for  all  peoples  success... just like all bama players obeys and they get the  greatest success

saban as dictator  sets up  the  best system  and places everyone himself in the right position... like he does with football

lets hear it...... HIP HIP  HOORAY.......  HIP HIP  HOORAY .NICK SABAN FOR DICTATOR of AMERICA!

But I'm not entirely sure.

Hello. The USA is playing a knockout-round game in the World Cup today, so nothing is going to knock off my shine. But I should mention that Rutgers and Maryland are now officially part of the Big Ten. The Big Ten has celebrated this by taking pictures of their mascots in Washington DC. That is all.

Etc.: Stop reading about my early opinion of Tate Forcier and read my early opinion on Nik Stauskas.

Starting With The Good...

It'll take, at most, four plays for you to yell "DO WANT."

2015 TN ILB Joshua McMillon visited Michigan back in April, and it apparently made quite the impression on him. McMillon told GBW's Josh Newkirk that the Wolverines "stand very high on the charts" in large part because of their focus on academics ($):

“They separate themselves from everybody else because they set their [academics] standards so high,” McMillon said. “So they actually expect their student-athletes to actually be students first instead of athlete-student. I love that about them. They make sure they get their work. They base their schedule around their major instead of around their athletics. Even though they are on athletic scholarship, they make sure they get an education.”

McMillon is planning a return trip to Ann Arbor with both his parents in tow—only his father was able to accompany him on the previous visit—and he spoke very highly about his rapport with the coaches, especially Greg Mattison (who, surprise!, busted out the Ray Lewis comparison). U-M is firmly in McMillon's top five as he nears an August decision, and they could very well be on top already while waiting for the all-important Mom Stamp of Approval. They've already got one from McMillon's dad, per 247's Steve Lorenz ($).

It's been a while since we've heard a major update on NY TE/DE Tyrone Wheatley Jr., and after Chris Clark's commitment there was concern it'd negatively affect Michigan's chances to land the son of the great U-M running back. Not so, says the younger Wheatley himself, per Sam Webb ($):

Many observers wonder if Clark’s presence in the Wolverines’ recruiting class will adversely affect their standing in Wheatley’s eyes.

“No,” he replied swiftly.  “I actually know Clark.  I’ve been talking to him for a while.  He actually contacted me a while back.  We’ve just been talking about the recruiting process and different schools. He had a lot of big schools as well.”

Wheatley named Michigan to his top five alongside Alabama, USC, UCLA, and Miami (YTM), and he plans to take official visits to all five schools.

The Wolverines are poised to make the top five for another top target, five-star CA WDE Keisean Lucier-South, per Tim Sullivan ($):

"Right now, I don't know who'll be in the top five yet, I'm still figuring it out. [UCLA and Michigan] probably," he admitted with a chuckle. "I think they're going to be in there. I know the coaches, they're good to me, and they're always talking to me, so they're probably going to be in that list. All the other schools are still talking to me too, so it's going to be really hard to see what my top five is going to be."

KLS will see Ann Arbor for the first time when he takes an official visit for the Penn State game, which should be a huge recruiting event.

Three-star FL WR/TE Auden Tate, whose ranking belies an excellent offer sheet, checks in at 6'4", 200 pounds and Michigan is recruiting him as a big wideout in the Devin Funchess mold. U-M's pitch that Tate could eventually replace Funchess looks to be working—he's planning a visit for this month's BBQ at the Big House, and Michigan is also in line to receive one of his officials despite an upcoming planned decision, per Scout's Amy Campbell ($):

Tate hopes to have his decision wrapped up in the next month, but he plans to take several officials this fall too.

“Florida State and Michigan will be official visits, I don’t know about the other three yet,” he said.

Florida State—the presumed team to beat—and Clemson should be the biggest competition here. Florida is also a factor.

...And Moving On To The Less Good

Three Midwest prospects who at one point or another have been top Michigan targets will their respective decisions tomorrow, and the outlook isn't good for U-M.

MN DL Jashon Cornell and OH LB Justin Hilliard are holding press conferences at the same time tomorrow morning (10 am ET), and it looks like Ohio State will be the ultimate destination for both of them. Michigan stopped pursuing Cornell recently after he bulked up to interior lineman size—U-M isn't taking a DT in this class—but Hilliard was their top target at outside linebacker, a position they've recruited heavily for 2015.

Michigan has a slightly better shot at landing IL WR Miles Boykin, but not by much—Notre Dame is the prohibitive favorite to get the commitment when Boykin announces on Twitter at an undetermined time tomorrow.

If a Hello post goes up tomorrow, it'll be written from scratch.

2015 Top247 Updated

247 updated their 2015 rankings, and they featured rises from Darrin Kirkland and Alex Malzone. Kirkland slotted just inside the top 200 after impressing on the camp trail:

Darrin Kirkland Jr. – Michigan is getting a good one in Kirkland. Checking in at No. 199 overall, Kirkland was arguably the top linebacker in attendance at the Ohio Nike Camp and he’ll be looking to raise his stock even more at The Opening.

While Malzone didn't quite get his fourth star on 247, he improved his standing and closed the gap between his ranking and that of Ohio State QB commit Joe Burrow:

Heading into the Elite 11 in Columbus, Michigan commit Alex Malzone was rated as 3-star with an 86 grade. Ohio State commit Joe Burrow was a four-star with a grade of 90. After watching them workout side by side at the event, we’ve moved the two to the same grade of 88. Burrow has more physical and athletic upside and we like we he does with his feet on film but after watching him throw in person for the first time, he’s still got some work to do in his consistency as a passer. Malzone on the other hand is a little bit undersized but has outstanding feet in the pocket and a really live arm. He doesn’t have the ceiling of Burrow but he’s the more college ready player right now.

That boosted Malzone's score enough to be a four-star, ranked #300 overall and #10 among pro-style quarterbacks, on the 247 Composite. 

Michigan's other commits in the Top247:

• Garrett Taylor is the team's highest-ranked commit at #77 overall (#10 CB), up two spots from when he committed.
• 247 remains the least bullish on Chris Clark, also moving him up two spots to #189 (#5 TE).
• Grant Newsome held steady at #192 overall (#23 OT).

2016 Updates

Sam Webb's latest at the Detroit News is a feature on 2016 Eastern Christian Academy OLB Dele' Harding, whose high opinion of U-M in the wake his recent offer hasn't changed. Harding's father said Dele' was "elated" upon receiving the offer, and Dele' himself said the presence of his two former high school teammates will be a factor when he considers U-M:

Said Harding: “I would probably say (Canteen and Watson being at Michigan) helps just for the simple fact that they are my coolest teammates and talk to me almost every day. So I would say it would probably be a plus.”

Harding has tentative plans to make a decision after his upcoming junior season. USC seems to be the main competition among schools that have offered, though Harding noted that he's not nearly as familiar with the new Trojan coaching staff as he was with the Kiffin regime. While it's still early, U-M looks to be in very good position for him.

Michigan offered 2016 TX S Brandon Jones, the top-ranked safety in the class, last Thursday, per Jones himself. As you'd expect, Jones has a very impressive offer sheet, and so far all 13 picks on the 247 Crystal Ball have him heading to Texas A&M.

After a recent visit and Michigan offer, four-star PA RB Miles Sanders has Michigan in his top three, per Sam Webb ($):

Miles Sanders:  “Right now I have Penn State first and Michigan and Michigan State tied.”

Sanders has a Michigan connection, as he attends the same high school (Woodland Hills in Pittsburgh) that produced Steve Breaston and Ryan Mundy, both of whom have talked to Sanders while stopping by their old school.

Michigan is one of six schools standing out for behemoth four-star guard Richard Merritt, per 247's Ross Martin:

"I don't have any favorites right now, " the 6-foot-5, 345-pound Washington D.C. product said. "but the schools that are standing out are Alabama, Florida State, Michigan, Michigan State, West Virginia, and Virginia Tech."

Offensive lineman highlights aren't always the most interesting watch, but you're gonna want to click play on the reel embedded above. Merritt is ranked as the #53 overall player and #2 guard in the early composite rankings.

Four-star NC RB Robert Washington told GBW's Josh Newkirk that Fred Jackson informed him an offer should come within the next week ($).

OH BABY

This has nothing to do with Michigan, in all likelihood, but it must be posted here. 2017 FL WR Emmanuel Greene already holds offers from Clemson and Miami, and this video gives you a pretty good idea why:

via EDSBS

If this was the And1 tour, Greene would've just chucked the ball out of bounds after the third juke, and the entire camp would've ended at that moment. Life should be more like the And1 tour.

[Bentley]

It's was sunny and lovely out yesterday in Michigan. Sunday night's storm swept the humidity aside and deposited rain where it belongs: on my lawn. So why did it feel like that sun was a little darker, that sky a little hazier, this July a little less nice than the June that preceded it? Oh, right.

The first official piece of Maryland @bigtenconf apparel presented to @kbaterp and Commissioner Jim Delany! pic.twitter.com/zHpA2Nul6X

— Maryland Athletics (@umterps) June 30, 2014

It's official: our moms are forcing us to play with Scott Malkinson.

Why is this happening again? Well they're joining for the money: both schools have had relatively bad athletic departments who over-leveraged themselves in the big sport facility and coaching arms races, Rutgers less so than Maryland, but then Rutgers was about to wind up trapped in the sinking ship of the Big East/American. Maryland has massive debt from its building projects and the ACC ain't gonna pay them, so they were ready to whore themselves out to whichever conference came along, even if it meant an end to their relationship with Duke.

(No, Penn State fans don't care about either as rivals.)

The real question is why in the heck we'd want them. It's cable TV. Starting with the Big Ten, the big conferences have been getting in on the great scam of cable bundling. Cable providers have monopolies in their markets, and are second only to the military-industrial complex in political spending, all so they can force subscribers into all-or-nothing tiers of hundreds of channels to get one they want (and try to charge people extra to not get their internet slowed).

Big Ten's Expansion Plan: rip off the cable companies after they rip off America. [Image credit: HuffPo]

This works out very well for the cable giants but leaves them a particular vulnerability to any network with a sports license. Fiercely loyal college football fans will scream at their cable providers if they can't watch the game, and advertisers lust after sports because they're the last of the DVR-proof live events, so cable providers pay out the nose for the network with the game. Then they place that network on a relatively accessible tier that everybody in that market must pay for, and raise prices accordingly.

In this way, if there are just enough A&M fans in Dallas, every cable subscriber in Dallas will pay an extra $5/month to the SEC and its partner (ESPN). If there are just enough Missouri fans in St. Louis, if there just enough Maryland fans in D.C. metro area, if there are just enough Rutgers fans in New York City, etc. The Big Ten schools are gambling on there being enough Rutgers fans to scam $5/month from everyone in New York. So far they've already got New Jersey and Maryland.

The gamble for the schools is they think they'll sell out the stadiums no matter who's visiting, so who gives a damn if it's Maryland visiting instead of Wisconsin. The fans aren't going to see a dime of the Comcast deal (at least not at Michigan—most schools are a little less adversarial to their fans) and just have to decide to put up with the new faces, or not.

In the list of downsides, there are worse things that can happen than having Wisconsin disappear forever, or the invention of more derived, ugly trophies. So long as it ends with Ohio State and MSU is in there, it's a Michigan season, while any Notre Dame or Minnesota you can sprinkle in is appreciated. To put the loss in context I thought I'd look through Michigan's history with the conference with respect to the frequency we've faced various conference rivals.

A History of Western/Big Ten Conference Scheduling

Early years (1892-1906): Prior to the invention of the conference, Michigan already played some of its future rivals. They played Chicago twice in 1893 (both on the road), and even after joining the conference Michigan had an extra (non-conference) game against Chicago's med students.

Hey, just 'cause we left you guys aren't supposed to be rivals. [Chicago vs. Minnesota in 1916.]

There were seven teams in the original 1896 conference—Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, and Chicago—with Indiana and Iowa joining in 1899. Teams customarily only played games in October and November, and Michigan played anywhere from two to five conference opponents a year. The 1906 team (the last before leaving the conference for a time) played just one conference game (Illinois) among five games plus an alumni exhibition.

If there was any pattern to this, it's that Michigan and Chicago would play every year except 1899 and 1906. There were a few stretches of other rivals lasting not more than four years. The newcomers (Indiana 1900-'03, Iowa 1900-'02) apparently were guaranteed some starter games with Michigan. Wisconsin (1899, 1902-'05) was the next-most regular. Northwestern and Michigan only played twice before M left. Once we did, we played Minnesota twice but nobody else.

[after the jump, we lose Chicago, gain worse]

Next Early Years (1917-1952): Getting back to a Big Ten schedule was slow. The 1917 team already had a full schedule they didn't want to cancel on, so they added Northwestern (on 11/24) at the end of the year and that was it. In 1918 because of the influenza epidemic and wartime travel restrictions, Michigan had to cancel a bunch of games, knocking off conference foes Northwestern and Minnesota and rescheduling Ohio State at the end of the season (11/30). The Chicago game was unaffected.

Notably that season Michigan also made a point of scheduling Michigan Agricultural, i.e. State. For years before MSU joined the Big Ten this was a non-conference rivalry. They played in 1918, 1925, and every year after that.

After this game-winner vs. Illinois in '47, Bump Elliott went 9-1 versus the Illini as a coach (6-1 vs. brother Pete).

From 1919 to 1931 Michigan played between four and six conference games (the league voted to make four the minimum after 1925). The Wolverines made sure that Ohio State and Minnesota were on the docket every year (twice in 1926 because the Gophers were so desperate to meet their 4-game quota that they agreed to drop their offense), and played Illinois every year except 1923. Wisconsin they skipped four times, Chicago they played just five against, Iowa was seen four times, Indiana and Northwestern thrice, and Purdue twice.

Starting in the 1930s Michigan usually had six and and never less than five conference foes a year except when Chicago suddenly dropped football, leaving the 1940 schedule at four. The rivalries that were respected through the '30s and '40s were OSU, Minnesota, and Illinois, played every year. Chicago took a two-year hiatus in the mid-'30s before they dropped out, and Northwestern only missed two seasons ('35 and '39) in 20. Indiana became a regular rival in '43. Iowa and Wisconsin (7 games each in two decades) and Purdue (5) were off the schedule far more often than not.

MSU joined the conference in 1950 and started play in 1953. Before that Michigan was just playing them anyway.

The Big Ten Years (1953-1992): In the post-war period MSU joined the conference and Big Ten teams settled into nine-game seasons with a minimum of six conference games. Michigan played at least seven every year but 1953 (Penn was scheduled for homecoming on Halloween), and 1961, when Duke could only schedule in early November (football still didn't start until the last day of September). Seven games was standard after '62, and starting in 1971 everyone in the conference had to play eight (several schools went up to nine on occasion). In 1981 and '82 Michigan was among eight schools who went to nine games. The Big Ten expanded to a full round-robin of nine for the next two seasons, but that went back to eight after the '84 season.

Under the '84 rules and the pre-'81 de facto rules, somebody had to be left off the schedule, and again for Michigan this was weighted. The every-year rivals were Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan State, and Illinois. Iowa and Northwestern rotated off a total of 10 times each. The longest we went without seeing either was four years when Iowa dropped in the mid-'60s. Indiana was on the same program as those guys after a six-year hiatus in the early '60s. Purdue and Wisconsin were ignored for the early part of the '50s, but got on the same kind of rotation thereafter. Once the Big Ten went to an eight-game schedule you'd miss the non-rivals for two consecutive seasons every two decades.

This is when we stopped being good at counting.

The Big11Ten Years (1993-2010): The Big Ten went to 11, but kept its eight-game schedules. The way it worked out was to have each team select two rivals to play every year, and the other teams rotate off for two seasons in eight in pods. For Michigan the rivals were Ohio State and Michigan State, and the pods were initially (in order) Indiana-Northwestern, Iowa-Wisconsin, Minnesota-Penn State. Again the new guys were guaranteed a long series with Michigan to start their Big Ten-ure. But they switched the pods around after the 1998 season (no idea why--the rumor around the Daily was Penn State didn't want Michigan to drop off the schedule). Thereafter Iowa was on Minnesota's schedule, and Penn State was of a pod with Wisconsin.

As a result Michigan faced Penn State all but the 2003 and 2004 seasons, saw Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, and Wisconsin all but four of 18 years, and wound up with just 12 games in that period against Indiana, Iowa, and Northwestern.

Michigan had to go back to Penn State in 1999 once the pods were screwed with. So we did that.

The Successories Years (2011-2013): Adding Nebraska created the stupid motivational poster divisions, with a designated annual rival from the opposite division. Michigan and Ohio State were put in different divisions and made each others' annuals, a situation that put Michigan's schedule likely to be tougher than that of teams they'd regularly be in divisional races with, particularly MSU. It also meant just two games left to play the five non-rivals in the other division, so they'd be off the schedule 60% of the time.

Divisional rivals were Iowa, Michigan State, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Northwestern. The alignment only lasted three years, so Illinois and Purdue fell off just once, Indiana and Penn State were gone two of three years, and Wisconsin disappeared.

The Future (2014-??): A bloated 14-team conference means six games are spoken for by divisional rivals. In 2016 the Big Ten will at least go to a nine-game schedule, because fitting seven cross division rivals into two spots was going to make the other division essentially a separate conference. It's not exactly 2/7 (or 3/7 after 2016) because Purdue has a protected game with Indiana, and the Big Ten said straight-out they don't plan on having an even rotation; rather they'll schedule things based on who hasn't seen whom, with greater respect paid to rivals.

I figure by that they mean Minnesota will hang around more often but Illinois probably won't. Games through 2019 are currently scheduled. From this September till then, provided the conference isn't expanded further, Michigan will play Wisconsin four times, Minnesota and Northwestern thrice apiece, have two games with Illinois and Iowa each, and play Nebraska once. Purdue is officially somebody we used to know. Or didn't know. Chart of familiarity?

Chart of Familiarity

In 2019 Ohio State will catch Minnesota for our most-played Big Ten rivalry. Greg Dooley will probably be upset about it.

7/1/2014 – USA 1, Belgium 2 (ET) – out of World Cup

I never really forgave the guy. Admittedly, it's not like there was a huge amount to forgive. I just thought that after I'd indulged his desire to go to a couple of shows that I normally would not have he would reciprocate. Instead, he sulked through the entirety of a fun Robert Earl Keen show that I should have enjoyed about 15% more.

We were 20-ish, in Austin, Texas. We were engineers on summer internships, suddenly stripped of our friend networks and ill-equipped to forge new ones. In such circumstances, horizons broaden rather quickly, which is how I'd ended up at a Smashing Pumpkins show a few weeks earlier.

I know exactly what I wore: a terrible replica Michigan hockey jersey forged from whatever that fabric is that comes with large, regular holes and feels more like plastic than anything else that humans put on their bodies. I know this because after the show this material was absolutely soaked with sweat. Some of it was mine; the majority was from the writhing mass of humanity that had surged to and fro for the duration of the show.

I had no idea the thing could even get so sodden. I'd washed it several times and knew it was the kind of material that exited a washing machine as dry as it entered. After that show the thing was ten pounds heavier than it was two hours before.

I sat on a stoop in the bright Texas sun and tried to process the weird communal thing I'd just gone through. It was, above all, exhausting.

---------------------------------------------------------

On the day that hooked me for life, I force-marched myself down to the pub at halftime. I was in Ireland for a summer mostly because a girl had dumped me and I wanted to broaden the ol' horizons and the United States had just roared out to a 3-0 lead against impregnable invulnerable super-skilled Portugal. My place was about 20 minutes from the city center at reasonable pace; I got myself down there in 15, huffing and puffing as the second half kicked off.

To the Irish, the USA game that had just blown my mind was just an appetizer to Ireland-Germany. Group stuff meant that a draw would just about see the Irish through—they had Saudi Arabia last. Germany scored, because Germany. A loss was deadly. Everything was desperation and death until stoppage time, when Niall Quinn knocked a ball down to Robbie Keane and Kahn was finally breached.

Pandemonium. I ended up hugging a guy who was definitely not Irish. 12 years on I can only say he was Pakistani-ish. We hugged like we'd known each other since birth and jumped up and down and I was permanently in the power of the World Cup.

Ireland decided to take the afternoon off to drink by the river.

------------------------------------------

Four years later I watched the USA get blasted off the field by the Czechs. Six-foot-one-hundred Jan Koller pounded in a cross in the first ten minutes and things got worse from there. I sat across the table from Anthony, who'd moved to Ann Arbor and read my blog and knew I liked the USMNT. He'd emailed me because he needed someone to watch them with.

A number of months later, a guy who'd just moved to Ann Arbor named Jerry joined us at Charley's for some match or another—Gold Cup?—because he needed someone to watch the USMNT with. I don't remember what it was. It doesn't matter. From there it the web expanded to encompass most of my friendships forged after college. When I got married three years ago, Jerry was our officiant and Anthony was the best man.

-------------------------------

Four years later I was in Chicago for the very exciting Blogs With Balls conference; the World Cup was in South Africa and the USA was playing a tune-up friendly against Australia on the premises, which meant the thing was at approximately 7 AM. I met a guy I'd known as Orson and kind of now know as Spencer (but who is still mostly Orson) at a bar somewhere proximate to Wrigley Field and watched Robbie Findley round the goalkeeper and shoot about 20 feet wide.

When I started this blog, there were two other college football blogs, period. Orson ran one. As college football blogs developed it gradually dawned on a large percentage of the early adopters that we had another, odder obsession: the US national soccer team. I think it's because the kind of person into college football enough to start a blog about it prefers his emotional gambling on sports to be as high-stakes as possible.

We gathered it ourselves in weird ways. I watched the 1994 World Cup in my basement on a 14 inch TV, just like FIFA wanted, and then helpfully forgot about it in 1998. I honestly have no idea what drew anyone else to the national team other than Orson, who's written about it. At the moment I was force-marching to the King's Head in Galway, Orson was running up a darkened street towards a lunatic screaming "WE'RE UP ON PORTUGAL" at five in the morning. I imagine all of us were, in some manner of speaking, running towards a lunatic at some point.

We were together then. I saw Landon score against Algeria in a bar with my best friends, both the half-dozen I knew already and the two hundred who just happened to be there.

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I love the US national team. I love it in the way you can only love your wife: I chose it. It was not given to me by my father, like Michigan was. As something approximating an adult I made a decision. It stuck in a way that the Red Wings did not stick, that the Oilers did not stick, that every single other attempted non-Michigan affiliation did not stick. I chose it, and somehow it chose me.

Now I am in so deep that in some weird way the anger cannot stick. If I saw Chris Wondolowski today I'd buy him a beer and say "it's okay, man." I wrote a column earlier this year about how I invented a slur for people who annoy me by being even slightly incompetent. And yet here I am after getting crushed and all I want is for September 23rd to roll around. That's the next time the USA takes the field.

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So I'm under this table. I'm under it because the US has just worked a brilliant drawn-up-in-the-dirt free kick that results in a goal a universe where being really clever is everything. I am aware I am not in this universe. If I was being a teenager would have gone a lot better. Therefore the US is still down a goal with five minutes left.

I am under this table an unusually long time. I am the kind of person who screams SHOW ME THE GAME when, say, a basketball broadcast cuts away from a point guard bringing the ball up the floor uncontested. I am still under the table, though. If I remain under the table I will not have to see the clock ticking inexorably upward. I know that I have to stop being under the table pretty soon, but I like it under the table where time has stopped.

Eventually I undo the emergency squat and stop being under the table, and time resumes. I'm not soaked in sweat but it's not for lack of trying. I have lurched to and fro only metaphorically this time, with a mass of humanity that extends to the table I had to abandon to get to the spot where I could stop time, to Atlanta and Alabama and Denver where Orson and Jerry and Jess are, to that setup in Kansas City or Chicago they keep showing on TV in an attempt to catch that Landon-vs-Algeria video live.

Above all, it is wonderful. Except for the score, of course, which is a crime and a lie. But I would not trade the horrible roiling feeling of doom for anything. As Michael Bradley said, the World Cup is about suffering well. We do, together.

Bullets

I ain't got nothing. I mean, I could, but I can't. Instead, some goodbyes to guys who probably aren't going to see 2018:

BEASLEY. I may have been excessively strident in my attempt to stab anyone who said anything bad about Beasley, and then Beasley goes and redeems all excessive strident-ness. Amazing career, terrific player, terrific story arc, still weighs about 65 pounds. Most underrated USMNT player ever.

HOWARD. YOU SHALL NOT PASS, he said. He had an incredible beard as he did so. "Distribution… brilliant."

DEMPSEY. 1000% Anthemface. 1000% Deuceface. Scored goal after goal and stood as an eagle-riding, gun-waving avatar of America. Made it impossible to accuse USMNT of being euro floppers for duration of career. A hard man for hard times.

JONES. Anyone who says this is not an American is going to get run into the ground and then lashed in the face by a shot. Jones may not have known it, we may not have known it, but the man was born in Kansas and never left. He has overalls, and has always worn them.

BECKERMAN. Sanneh 2014. The guy who you're just like "remember when Beckerman played out of his mind?" Legacy is being that guy in the movie who gets on the Sports Or A Capella Team just at the end and kills it.

DONOVAN. Mexico feared Landon Donovan.

Five-star defensive end Keisean Lucier-South has a top 11 list that includes Michigan. It's 11 right now, but I believe Michigan would be on his list if it was just a top 3. Either way, Lucier-South has a public affinity for the Wolverines and his recruitment involving the maize and blue has been and still is trending in a positive direction.

As you'd expect though, a talent like Lucier-South has many suitors. His recruitment is one that will be contested until he finally makes his decision.

"Man, my recruitment is still insane," he said with a laugh. "I'm still talking to coaches everyday, I get letters everyday. Michigan, USC, Oklahoma, Florida, UCLA, Oregon, and all of the schools in my top 11 are all still very involved. It is crazy."

Lucier-South has backed off of calling UCLA his leader and now says that all of his top schools are pretty much even. He still isn't shy about his love for Michigan though, consistently calling them one of his favorites.

"I like Michigan a lot right now," he said. "The coaches direct message me everyday. I hear from Mattison, Hoke, and Ferrigno regularly. Hoke and Mattison don't DM me, but Ferrigno does. The commits are trying to get me there as well. Alex Malzone, Darrin Kirkland, and Chris Clark are all coming after me. They say like, 'Michigan is a great place and we can be really special.' I believe them too. Michigan is doing a great job in my recruitment."

The coaches and the commits aren't the only things attracting Lucier-South to Ann Arbor. For a California kid, he has a lot of love for the Wovlerines.

"I just love the history and the tradition," he explained. "I've been watching Michigan since I was little so that's why I like them so much. I honestly don't really know why I started watching them. My dad is a Michigan fan so I just always watched the games with him."

In his own words, Lucier-South says that Michigan is doing a great job recruiting him, but it won't be known if it's good enough for quite a while. Lucier-South plans to commit on National Signing Day as of right now. With so much time left in his recruitment, he has just two of his alotted five official visits scheduled, one of them being to Ann Arbor on October 11 against Penn State. He also has arranged plans to visit South Bend to watch Notre Dame against Stanford the week before that.

Lucier-South will be at The Opening in Oregon which begins this weekend and once that's over, he'll spend the rest of his summer prepping for his senior season.

Oh, hey there. We have to stop meeting like this.

We don’t meet. We’re the same person. I just hit Ctrl-B and I’m you.

So I’m Tyler Durden, and you’re… Robert Paulson? No, that was Meat Loaf. Wait, Edward Norton didn’t have a name in that movie, did he? Huh. I guess I never realized that.

And neither of us knows Helena Bonham-Carter. But watching Michigan football these days is like punching yourself in the face in a parking lot, so I guess that works.

I’ll be over here making soap if you need anything

Anywho, the O’Bannon trial ended last Friday, and it’s time to poke the corpse with a stick for a while. Many people spent the weeks and months up to the trial saying that the NCAA was probably screwed. Many of those same people spent the three weeks of the trial declaring that the NCAA was DEFINITELY screwed (and mocking them at every turn). And then came the last day of the trial, in which the plaintiffs had a bad day and some people declared that the NCAA was only mostly dead. So, to clear things up, I’ll make the following nuanced legal prediction:

The NCAA remains deeply and profoundly screwed. I think.

We shall delve into the ways, and the likely outcomes, but if you don’t want to read beyond the impending blather and the jump and the more blather, you may enjoy this Fourth of July weekend comfortable in the knowledge that Mark Emmert will, in short order, have a sad.

So why did everyone say the NCAA might not have to go on the cart?

Well, the thing about anti-trust law…

[returns to rendering fat]

…is that it isn’t the remedy for all ills caused by gigantic douchey monoliths. The plaintiff (O’Bannon) has the burden of showing violations of antitrust law, not just terrible behavior; the NCAA could have burned the entire 1995 UCLA Bruins basketball at the stake and it wouldn’t be an antitrust violation. As sports law and antitrust guru Michael McCann put it, antitrust law is “about protecting competition in the marketplace for the benefit of consumers and marketplace participants.” O’Bannon has to point to a specific defined market that the NCAA is harming, and to identify who the buyers are and who the sellers are in the market, as well as the specific harm created to consumers or market participants. If you can’t figure out how that works when we’re talking about college sports, you’re in the company of at least one federal judge.

The plaintiffs struggled to articulate these things at the weird closing argument Q&A the judge did, because it doesn’t really map to college football very well. But while it is understandable, if O’Bannon can’t explain how the NCAA is harming consumers in a specific market, the NCAA could skate.

[AFTER THE JUMP: NSFMBF]

So you’re saying the NCAA might actually WIN this clown show?

Not so fast my bolded friend. The plaintiffs put all of the pieces of an antitrust violation into the record, and they still get to submit a final brief to tie it all together. They can also throw a few theories out there, and as long as something sticks, the plaintiffs are in business.  As McCann points out, there is a decent argument in the rubble of these three weeks:

Watch for O’Bannon’s lawyers to simplify their argument in forthcoming filings. They will likely define the relevant market in a straightforward way: Colleges are the buyers and prospective and current student-athletes are the sellers. Through this lens, athletes sell their athletic services to colleges but are denied compensation for the commercial use of their names, images and likenesses. The denial arises because of amateurism rules, which allegedly reveal collusion by the NCAA and its member institutions.

And given how one-sided the trial was generally, any colorable theory will probably be good enough. My guess is that the transcript from economist Roger Noll will probably have more than enough by itself. 

What about all of those arguments you claimed the NCAA had? Did any of them stick?

Yeah, notsomuch. As we discussed, the NCAA put forth several theories of about how their rules provided a net positive; that they provided more benefit to the athletes than they did harm. Those arguments played out very not well for The Man. The four arguments were as follows:

1)  Competitive balance: The current NCAA structure fosters a competitive balance that would be significantly altered by the elimination of these restrictions, to the detriment of the athletes.

Sure, in the abstract, Middle Tennessee State is operating under the same rules as Alabama, and that they are therefore theoretically on equal footing. But you the plaintiffs didn’t have to dig too deep to prove that this was… uh… not remotely true. Several plaintiff witnesses (especially Roger Noll, who was worth his weight in gold) provided evidence that there is no competitive balance. A ‘fair’ fight is not the same as a competitive fight. You can’t put Tyson in the ring with a 3^rd grader, lay down some ground rules, and expect a healthy competition. The numbers bear that out; in both football and men’s basketball, top recruits ALL choose FBS schools, and the vast, vast majority of them choose schools in power conferences. A small subset of teams always comprises the Top 25, an even smaller subset always comprises the Top 10, and an even smaller subset of the subset comprises the Top 1.

Sure, if Big Ten teams decide they can pay players, and Sun Belt teams don’t, Sun Belt teams will probably be at an even greater disadvantage. But how is this any different than the current regime? Teams face these kinds of keeping-up-with-the-Joneses pressures anyway. Wanna compete with Bama and Michigan and Texas? You’d better pour some serious resources into recruiting, facilities, coaches, and unlimited snacks. And despite the fact that those pressures have grown stronger, teams keep trying to join the highest echelons, not flee them.

This was a constant refrain from the plaintiffs: the college football industry does not show the hallmarks of a struggling industry that can’t afford to pay players. Rising salaries, participants trying hard to get INTO the market, and significant capital investments aren’t the kinds of things you expect to see in a struggling industry.

2) Integration with the University: The current NCAA structure helps to facilitate the integration of academics and athletics in student life, and it provides for more competition for athletes, and eliminating NCAA restrictions would destroy that integration.

This has been tricky for both sides, because they’ve had to argue in anecdotal evidence. The plaintiffs try to paint a picture of athletics as a full-time job in which kids are athletes first and students second. They also tried to argue that it sets students apart from mere mortals; they introduced plenty of evidence, pointing out several athletes-only dorms and other athletic support facilities. The parties argued whether athletes take the same classes and majors, or if some of the “classes” and “majors” were specifically designed to get around the whole “college” aspect of college athletics.* Some of the dumbest pieces of evidence have come out of this topic. The NCAA pointed out the fact that a player tweeted about watching television, because if he has time to watch TV he’s just a regular student with down-time to be all normal and stuff.

The NCAA’s problem was that they introduced NO evidence that players receiving money will somehow make them less integrated into college life and academics, or that there is any benefit to competition from the purported integration. Their attempts to do so haven’t been very effective from a legal standpoint, and have been disastrous from a PR standpoint. NCAA witnesses pontificated about the importance of players playing for school pride and “love of the game," and how playing for a paycheck would be different, but in what can only be a news flash to the NCAA, EVERYONE GOES TO COLLEGE FOR MONEY. No one gets an engineering degree because they love circuits.

Judge Wilken determined before the trial that the NCAA “must present evidence to show that (1) the ban on student-athlete compensation actually contributes to the integration of education and athletics and (2) the integration of education and athletics enhances competition” among the universities for football and men's basketball players. I don’t think they did either part, at least not well.

[*North Carolina, we’re looking in your direction. And we just received 3 credits in “Looking in North Carolina’s Direction 101,” which is a pre-requisite to that coveted Visual Acuity major.]

3) Amateurism is vital: Amateurism is a key component of college sports, and the current NCAA model reflects and provides for that “amateurism” in a way that would be materially degraded if these rules were eliminated or weakened.

Possibly the crux of the whole dealy. The NCAA has argued that no one will watch college football if players get paid. It’ll blend into the background of other sports, because it will lose its unique cache. To support this point, the NCAA introduced public opinion surveys in which people said they don’t want players to get paid, and that players getting paid would affect their interest in the sports. There are, however, two problems with those surveys. The first is that this kind of polling rarely matches actual behavior; people often say they believe one thing, and might genuinely think that, but their actions don’t match their words at all. It’s called the value-action gap (or the attitude-behavior gap). For example in every poll most people hated the old division names, but that had virtually zero effect on 2011 ticket sales.

The second problem is that they didn’t really ask clear questions. Getting players “paid” can mean everything from boosters cutting $500k checks to players being full-on professionals to players getting a couple thousand dollars in stipends or letting them sell their signature.

The bigger issue for the NCAA is the mountain of evidence from the plaintiffs demonstrating that the players are already commercialized within an inch of their lives. They showed players wearing Tostido’s jersey patches, in front of sponsor logo backdrops, on sponsored promotional materials, and in and around corporate sponsors in about 12 other ways. They showed that players are ALREADY PAID, and that the NCAA has talked about increasing the amount players can receive. There is no reason to see this any differently than the NLRB saw it; the only difference between these guys and professionals is that you don’t cut them an actual paycheck.

The most amusing exchanges have been when NCAA witnesses have tried to warn of the potential for reforms to open the door for third parties (such as boosters) to pay players. The judge reacted to those argument with a resounding “and?”  It’s sort of fun watching someone who hasn’t been bathed in NCAA hysterical doctrine reacting to such things.

4) The Zero-Sum Game Argument: forcing schools to pay money will mean there will be fewer opportunities for players 

The NCAA tried to argue that much of the college football giant Scrooge McDuck coin vault fountain revenue stream goes to things like academic support, player scholarship, etc., and if the schools have to pay revenue to players, they would have to either cut back on spending in such support areas or just offer scholarships to fewer players which would result in fewer opportunities for players. The problem is that the plaintiffs were VERY effective in showing the places that money currently goes that could be otherwise directed to the players. Long story short, coaches’ salaries are out of control and Bama is building waterfalls. Wilken seemed very interested in the NCAA’s explanation of where all of their revenue goes (especially when the NCAA literally couldn’t account for it all).

The broader point is that even if SOME teams wouldn’t be able to afford as much other stuff, some would be able to provide MORE stuff. That’s how free market economics work, and it’s kind of the plaintiffs’ whole point; the market would have a natural equilibrium without these restrictions, and said equilibrium would involve players receiving more than they currently do.

Okay, so does the NCAA have ANY shot?

I see three ways the NCAA can actually win the case:

1. O’Bannon can’t put together a coherent antitrust theory. Likelihood: 10%
2. One of the NCAA’s justifications is actually good enough to save the current system. Likelihood: 4%
3. Wilken buys some sort of overarching penumbra argument that college sports is good and if you change this it might kill it and Y U HATE AMERICA? Likelihood: 1%

So by my amazingly unscientific reasoning, the NCAA is about a 5-to-1 dog at this point, and even that seems generous. They do, however, have a couple of backdoor cover opportunities:

• Appeal. An appellate court doesn’t even need to reverse Wilken’s ultimate decision and almost inevitable injunction, because even if they just reverse some of her rulings (such as her decision to not permit the NCAA to offer an alternative defense that the rules protect non-revenue sports), it could result in a reversal or a new trial.
• Winning by not losing too bad. At this point, I think the NCAA would take a simple “you can’t require players to sign over their NIL rights to you” injunction and run SCREAMING naked through the park. The NCAA knows it has room to absorb a blow, so if they don’t get hit with anything that involves paying players for broadcast rights or fundamentally altering the NCAA rules around athlete compensation from schools, I think they’d call that a decent result.

KenPom time: what does the injunction look like?

Just a complete wild-ass guess, but I’ll say it consists of the following:

• Prevent the NCAA from forcing players to sign over NIL rights, or to use them for commercial products (i.e. video games) without OPTIONAL player consent and compensation.
• Force the NCAA to permit players to take advantage of their own NIL rights through endorsements.
• Force the NCAA to allow schools to compensate athletes through group licensing rights without eligibility restrictions.
• Athlete NIL compensation must be placed in a trust until graduation
• Doesn’t touch NIL broadcast rights.

I’m iffiest on the concept of third-party endorsements, but I think it happens.