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The Basketball Landscape: Wisconsin Is Your Favorite

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Since the draft deadline is now past, it's time for a  three part early Big Ten basketball preview, starting from the top. After scouring Kenpom and my memory I have grouped the Big Ten teams like so:

OBVIOUS FAVORITE: Wisconsin
CONTENDERS: Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa
ONE IN, THREE ON THE BUBBLE: Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana
NOPE: Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue
WHY: Rutgers

And tackle them in approximate order, except I haven't really ordered the tiers. I am projecting a relative down year for the conference, because they've added one middling ACC program and Rutgers while MSU is poised for a major drop and Indiana/Illinois are still muddling along.

THE FAVORITE: Wisconsin

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Generally excellent outside of a shocking run of five losses in six games—including two at the normally impregnable Trohl Center—Wisconsin was, like Michigan, downed by an improbable Kentucky three-pointer. In their case they'd already taken down Arizona to reach the Final Four.

WHO'S GONE: SG Ben Brust (all positions approximate)

WHO'S BACK: C Frank Kaminsky, PF Nigel Hayes, SF Sam Dekker, SG Josh Gasser, PG Traevon Jackson, PG Bronson Koening, PF Duje Dukan

WHO'S NEW (or close enough): sophomore C Vitto Brown

From that team Wisconsin loses only Ben Brust, who was mostly a three-point gunner (39% on 244 attempts). With Josh Gasser back and Kaminsky capable from the perimeter, Wisconsin won't be shooting deficient. Gasser was a deference machine last year, taking only 11% of Wisconsin's shots while he was on the floor despite hitting 44% from three over the past two years. If he leaps up to Brust's level the Badgers only have to replace about 100 efficient threes—very manageable.

STRENGTHS:

  • Experience. Wisconsin will start three seniors, a junior, and probably sophomore-to-be Nigel Hayes.
  • Kaminsky. Developed an intimidating back to the basket game to go with his shooting en route to a 124 ORTG while taking 27% of Wisconsin's shots. Shockingly few TOs for a big man. Idea that senior bigs are surprisingly good downright frightening when applied to Kaminsky.

WEAKNESSES:

  • Point guard. Traevon Jackson's actions in the late stages of the Arizona and Kentucky games were appalling, repeatedly going into isolation despite being a terrible isolation player when Kaminsky was on the block against guys much smaller than him. With a TO rate of nearly 20 and a 2PT% of 42%, Jackson is the primary weak point in the Wisconsin offense. Worse, he does not seem to know this.

THE QUESTION: Can Hayes and Dekker play at the same time? Nigel Hayes looked like a star to be at certain times this year and does bring a lot more banging and rebounding than the slight Dekker. But Hayes's face-up game does not extend to the three-point line and Wisconsin cannot have more than one non-shooter in the game at a time. Dekker's a mediocre shooter right now… he needs to have a leap there if Wisconsin can play what seems like their best lineup.

THE OTHER QUESTION: Is Wisconsin tolerable now? Yes, yes I think so. I am deeply alarmed by this development but with the FF run and the changes to defensive rules Wisconsin is way less annoying than they used to be. No longer does their good league record make the Big Ten look silly when they exit the tournament quickly.

PRE-SCHEDULE WAG: With Payne gone and Amir Williams probably not having an epiphany as we speak it's hard to see who in the league is going to match up with Kaminsky. (Hammons you say? 16 and 22 last year against Hammons.) Meanwhile Wisconsin's outside shooting should only dip slightly. Defense should improve if The Question above is answered in the affirmative. Wisconsin wins the league at 14-4 and gets a one seed.

CONTENDER: IOWA

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Iowa fell off a cliff late last year after finding themselves in the top ten for a brief period, but it was still a little tiny bit of a breakthrough season for the Hawkeyes. While Iowa fans may feel that a First Four exit is hardly a tourney appearance at all, their game against the Volunteers felt more like a Sweet 16 battle than Dayton fluff and the Kenpom rankings of the participants suggested as much.

WHO'S GONE: SG Roy Devyn Marble, PF Melsahn Basabe, PF Zach McCabe.

WHO'S BACK: PF Aaron White, C Adam Woodbury, C Gabriel Olaseni, SF Jarrod Uthoff, PG Mike Gesell, SG Josh Oglesby, PG Anthony Clemmons

WHO'S NEW (or close enough): SG Peter Jok, JUCO PG Trey Dickerson

With 6'9" guys falling all over themselves for playing time the departures of Basabe and McCabe should be manageable, possibly even beneficial. Iowa had a whopping 11 guys average at least seven minutes and was in the unusual position of having two guys designated "starters" by Kenpom who were off the floor more often than not. This is a team that could stand to tighten its rotation.

STRENGTHS:

  • Hugeosity. Despite losing a 6'6" guy and two 6'7" guys, Iowa projects to play six guys 6'5" or above, with only the PG spot below. This served Iowa well on the boards last year as they were 19th on offense and a respectable 68th on D; they finished in the top 40 at blocking shots as well.
  • Depth. Iowa will still have the option to go ten deep and can sustain foul trouble to its front line better than anyone in the league.

WEAKNESSES:

  • Shooting. Iowa typically plays a two-big formation with White at PF, and he is not a threat from deep. No one on the team was particularly accurate except Oglesby, who was buried down the depth chart… and he was coming of a THJ-like sophomore year during which he hit 27%. With Marble gone, Iowa has to have a prominent and functional Oglesby.
  • Defense. More on this later, but Iowa fell apart on D late in the season, tried to dig themselves out with a zone that hurt more often than it helped, and project to have some of the same issues this year.

THE QUESTION: Who picks up Marble's playmaking  and "oh crap do something" shots?

After initial flashes of promise, Anthony Clemmons became very turnover prone and has now settled into a limited, defensive role. Meanwhile Jok and Oglesby, the most likely replacements, are shooters, not creators. That puts an awful lot of weight on Mike Gesell to create shots in the half-court, which was already a struggle a year ago.

Iowa's best hope here may be an explosive debut from JUCO PG Trey Dickerson, who's averaging 20 points a game in North Dakota and is on JUCO AA lists after one season.

THE OTHER QUESTION: Can the Hawkeyes match up on D?

The big lineup caused defensive issues, as anyone who watched White try to stay in front of Nik Stauskas remembers.

Late in the year, Iowa tried a zone defense. It got shredded.

Now down their best perimeter defender, Iowa has to figure out whether they're going to double down on the zone or hope Olaseni and Woodbury can erase enough perimeter mistakes to keep their head above water.

PRE-SCHEDULE WAG: Iowa leaned heavily on Marble to fill in the holes in their offense and he has no obvious replacement. That'll drag down both Iowa's transition and half-court offense. But big guys develop slowly and one of Woodbury or Olaseni seems likely to bust out, providing back-to-the-basket shot generation that will help paper over those issues.

Assuming that Iowa either figures out the zone or figures out they should abandon it and gets their defense in order, they should poke their head above .500, especially in a weakened league. 12-6, 4 seed.

CONTENDER: MICHIGAN

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[Bryan Fuller]

Another year, another beating taken from the NBA draft. The falloff last year was microscopic, if it even existed, thanks to massive sophomore leaps from Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert. Can Beilein do it again?

WHO'S GONE: C Jordan Morgan, C Jon Horford, C Mitch McGary, PF Glenn Robinson III, SG Nik Stauskas

WHO'S BACK: PG Derrick Walton, SG Zak Irvin, SF Caris LeVert, PG Spike Albrecht

WHO'S NEW (or close enough): C Mark Donnal, C Ricky Doyle, PF DJ Wilson, PF Kam Chatman

That is an awful lot to lose from the one true post spot in the Michigan offense and not very many guys in the "who's back" spot, but those first three are doozys. LeVert had a massive leap, essentially replacing NBA ROY candidate Tim Hardaway Jr's production, except with more efficiency. Irvin and Walton are the first top-50 guard recruits John Beilein has ever had and look to make the patented Leap after promising freshman years. And Spike's not bad either.

STRENGTHS:

  • Shooting. The four guys returning shot 41%, 41%, 43%, and 39% from three on piles of attempts. To that Michigan adds a starting center with true three-point range and a couple of Beilein-standard stretch fours.
  • More shooting. That previous bullet probably deserves to be mentioned twice.
  • Diversity of weapons. Few teams in the conference will have as many places to go for shots as Michigan. LeVert is obvious; Walton is likely to come into his own in year two; Irvin just launches when given a sliver of space. Five-star-ish recruit Chatman is regarded as a point forward who can get his and set up his teammates. And Donnal adds a pick and pop element Beilein has lacked since the days of Pittsnogle expired. While the departure of Stauskas is a blow, he only took 23% of Michigan's shots. That's extremely low for a go-to lottery pick and is a testament to the pieces surrounding him.

WEAKNESSES:

  • Rough 'n' tough stuff. Michigan seemed a little flimsy inside last year, and now they've lost their entire center corps and starting PF. They'll be taller, with two 6'8" PFs and Cs an inch or two taller than Morgan, but unless Max Bielfeldt presses his way into the lineup the vast majority of Michigan's minutes in the frontcourt will go to freshmen—three of them true freshmen. Rebounding and meanness have never been Beilein strengths; this year will really push the limits of what you can do with a fleet of B-52s.
    THE QUESTION: Is this an infallible assembly line? Based only on the returning gentlemen, Michigan is probably not a contender. But that's what everyone thought last year when Michigan sat at 6-4 and McGary went out for the year. Then Stauskas, LeVert, and Morgan blew up and when the dust cleared Michigan had won the conference by three games. It is irrational to expect that sort of improvement on an annual basis, touted recruit or no. Or is it?
    THE OTHER QUESTION: Is the defense really going to be worse? Michigan's D took a huge step back last year, from 48th to 109th. They were 10th in the conference, down from 6th, and the absolute worst at preventing two-pointers. They had the second-worst defense in the league over the course of the entire season, ahead of only Iowa. It might not get better but since it was already scraping the bottom of what a non-Rutgers Big Ten D might do, there might not be much of a drop.
    PRE-SCHEDULE WAG: The offense is a given what with Beilein and at least three plus guys on the back end. The defense… well, it's not going to be great. It may not be as bad as you would think, at least relative to last year. 12-6 after a rough nonconference schedule sees Michigan enter the tourney a 5 seed.

One Frame At A Time: GRIII's Greatest Dunks

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Rudimentary photoshop skills + advanced dunking ability = this

Yesterday's post on Glenn Robinson III actually began as an attempt to compile his greatest GIFs, only to morph into something different when the process of narrowing down my list of favorites proved extremely difficult. If you haven't, read that for an impassioned discussion of GRIII being much more than Just A Dunker.

With that said, the dunks were pretty fun, you guys. I've combed through my hard drive and picked out my 20 favorite GRIII dunk GIFs. These aren't necessarily his 20 best dunks as a Wolverines—I didn't (quite) GIF everything from the last two seasons—but it's a pretty great sampling nonetheless. Throw on the Space Jam soundtrack and let's do this.

Click on the still frames to open each GIF in a lightbox, and don't forget to vote for your favorite at the end of the post.

20. Beilein +2

Not the most elaborate dunk, though the elevation always impresses. This just happened to be the best view of John Beilein's offense at work—watch Caris LeVert make a subtle cut across the lane just as Mitch McGary sets a sneaky pick to give GRIII an uncontested run to the rim. It's a gorgeous play with a pretty nice finish, too.

19. The Genesis

I had to include the first Robinson alley-oop, from the season-opening exhibition against Northern Michigan in 2012. The first, and by no means the last, time that GRIII dunked through significant contact with no call, which will be a running theme throughout this post.

Also, the title of this GIF on my computer is "griiialleyoop.gif" because I lack foresight, apparently.

18. Style Points

Trey Burke's pass may be the prettiest part of this—if it isn't the uniforms—but Robinson makes this look so smooth, especially with the way he spins through the landing.

17. Nope

Another running theme: defenders seeing GRIII tear through the lane and freezing like deer in headlights. Austin Hollins wanted absolutely none of this. The next dunk on the list validates this course of action...

16. Late Contest Blues

Included because (1) dat pass, (2) oh, just casually dunking all over some schlub, and (3) the look of devastation of Sasa Borovnjak's face as he realizes how damn idiotic it was to try and stop this from happening.

[Hit the appropriately named JUMP for the top 15.]

15. Mind The Backboard

I'm just sayin', it'd be a pretty cool tribute to GRIII if somebody put a sticker of his face under the corner of the Crisler backboards, because he nearly imprinted it there himself on multiple occasions.

14. Burke-to-GRIII Destroys Florida, Part I

Speaking of backboards, the integrity of this particular one has been severely compromised. That GRIII could generate this much power despite having to bring a low lob up to the rim—as opposed to taking a high pass and ramming it down—is especially impressive.

13. INCOMING

The camera angle adds a lot to this one, as it looks like GRIII is dunking on you, as opposed to a hacking Gabriel Olaseni and a cannot-be-bailing-fast-enough Mike Gesell. I'm sorry for whatever I did, Mr. Robinson. Please don't hurt me.

12. Didn't See You Down There

Rick Barnes, if you stick a 5'11" point guard under the basket against a human pogo stick, this is going to happen a lot. Luckily for Javan Felix, this play occurs so high in the air it'll take a really tall poster for him even to get in the frame.

11. Ran Too Fast, Didn't Matter

Look at that still for a sec. GRIII hauled ass down the court so fast that he couldn't gather himself for this lob in complete control, yet he somehow manages to throw it down while his momentum has carried most of his body behind the backboard. This is just freakish.

10. Bull In A China Shop

The whole uncalled foul thing? Yeah. Terran Petteway flat-out grabs Robinson with two hands at midcourt, and when that does nothing to slow GRIII's roll, he shoves him in the small of the back right at liftoff. Even while taking a much more accelerated path to the baseline than he planned—I don't think nearly crash-landing into the basket support was the initial idea—Robinson puts it down with authority.

9. Thanks, Adidas

Sure, the star of this play is Spike and his absurd off-hand threading of the defense, but when you manage to dunk despite a defender turning your basketball jersey into a '90s-style tearaway, you get some serious bonus points.

8. Burke-to-GRIII Destroys Florida, Part II

With dunks, as is the case with many things, it's the little details that separate the good from the great. In this case, it's Robinson deciding in mid-flight that instead of a two-handed power slam, he'd prefer the righty tomahawk. It was a good choice.

7. Why Not?

Oh so casually, Robinson takes an alley-oop feed and DUNKS IT DIRECTLY BEHIND HIS HEAD WHILE MOVING LATERALLY ACROSS THE BASKET.

I could try this on a Little Tikes hoop and there'd be a 97% chance I break multiple bones and tear every ligament in my body.

6. Deal With It

You're gonna want to box that guy out next time, Nebraska.

5. AHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I'm so happy my second-favorite GRIII lob ever got the full BTN Journey cinematic treatment. We are all that kid just to the right of the backboard, which, once again, threatens to decapitate our brave protagonist.

4. You Got Me Floatin'

Well that's gonna be a contested layu--OH SWEET JESUS.

3. The GR360

Yes, I put the in-game 360 all the way down at #3. Hear me out on this before demanding my immediate incarceration in Blogger Prison.

It's an incredible dunk. To pull this off during a game is patently absurd. The finish, however, is just a little bit weak. (It's easier to see that from this angle—his momentum carries him a little further away from the basket than he wanted.) That's just enough to put it behind the next two dunks in my mind.

2. Glide Mode

The levitation. The cock-back. The MJ-esque leg kick. This isn't basketball. This is performance art.

That GRIII seems to be on a downward trajectory by the time he reaches the rim reminds me of one of my favorite dunks of all time, this soaring transition throwdown by the great Clyde Drexler.

1. GRIII As Vicious Hat

As Kevin Harlan would say, WITH NO REGARD FOR HUMAN LIFE.

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Michigan Offers Mikell Lands-Davis

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Mikell Lands-Davis

Name: Mikell Lands-Davis
Position: Running Back
Ht/Wt: 5’11" / 206 lbs. / 4.53
Location: Alexander – Douglasville, GA (2015)
Offers: Clemson, Michigan, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Georgia State, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Miami, Middle Tennessee State, NC State, North Carolina, South Alabama, Syracuse, UAB, Wake Forest
Rating: ★★★ .8667 (247 Composite)
Ranking: #525 NAT / #42 RB  (247 Composite)
FILM

Michigan will be a big time player in the recruitments of both Damien Harris and Mike Weber, but if either of them decide that the Wolverines aren’t for them the coaches will need other options at running back and just a few days ago they offered Mikell Lands-Davis for that reason. The coaches have been after Lands-Davis since mid-April, when they stopped by his high school. Since that visit Lands-Davis was very excited to hear from Michigan and was really hoping for an offer. When it came he couldn’t hold back his excitement.

It was such a blessing when they stopped by to see me. I was just hoping for a Michigan offer. I love the fact that I have them as an option. I’m really excited about it! It was a huge offer for me that I really didn’t expect to get. I’m really blessed.

Coach Hecklinski headed up the recruiting efforts involving Lands-Davis and his pitch to the young running back is one that surely impresses all recruits.

Coach Heck told me to call him and he asked me if I’m seriously interested in Michigan. I said of course! The he asked me if I can tote the rock in front of 115,000 people every Saturday on the biggest stage in football, and again I said of course! Then he offered me and now he said he’ll just be in contact with me and that he’s going to recruit me to Michigan.

Lands-Davis runs with a style that the Michigan coaches like and with a 205 lb. frame, good balance, and a nice burst he appears to be a nice fit into the scheme moving forward. He explained his game in his own words.

I’m 5’11” and 206 lbs. and I run a 4.53. When watching me play you’ll see a physical guy who can hit the homerun play as well. I’m really patient in the hole and I’m either running someone over or slithering to break an arm tackle to get north and south as fast as I can. I’m all about running north and south, it’s the easiest way to score. I get a lot of comparisons to Tre Mason.

I agree with everything Lands-Davis said about himself. His knack for running to positive yardage in a straight line without any wasted energy is noticeable on film.

Even though Lands-Davis is a Georgia kid he said he’s not afraid to move away from home for school.

My recruitment is all just coming real fast to me. Colleges are coming out of nowhere. I got an Indiana offer recently which was really out of nowhere. After spring ball I’m going to look at all the colleges and pick a top 5 or 6 and visit them this summer. I need to see which school is the best fit for me and which school is going to help me be most successful in football and career wise. Michigan will definitely be in my top group. It’s hard not to like them.

I asked Mikell to expand on what makes Michigan so likeable.

I know historically it’s a top 5 program for football with rich tradition. I know they don’t send out offers to just anyone like some other schools do. They are limited and really go after great players which is why I feel so blessed. I know it’s cold (laughs) but it’s big time football.

Lands-Davis isn’t the first recruit to mention how cold Michigan can be but he sees a silver lining in the frigid reputation of the great lakes state.

It would just be something I’d have to get used to. Georgia is nothing but humid so every place has it’s downside. Hardest part of the year here is training camp.

Lands-Davis was actually born in California and moved to Georgia as a youngster. Those west coast roots turned him into a USC fan early on, mostly because of his affinity for Reggie Bush. He admitted with a laugh that an offer from the Trojans would be cool, but he doesn’t really rank them any higher because of that. He says a visit to USC’s campus would be necessary just like for anywhere else.

A visit to Michigan this summer is in the cards for Lands-Davis and then a top group of 5 or 6 will be formed that he says will include Michigan. He has plans for the rest of the spring and summer as well.

I plan on having my top list after spring ball which ends May 16th for me. I plan on making my decision before the season starts and I’m going to visit all this summer and see how everything goes. I haven’t thought about my list much yet, I’m just enjoying the process right now. Michigan will be in there though.

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THE VIBE

5 – Trending Blue
4 – Solidly in a top 2-3
3 – Contender in a top 3-7
2 – Among large (8-15) group under consideration
1 – Let’s see if he visits before we talk
0 – Passing interest or none

Mikell was pretty clear about how much he likes Michigan and with a look at the rest of his offer list, the Wolverines are probably in decent shape with him on name alone. A strong visit to Ann Arbor this summer will go a long way in forming a hierarchy in his top group. Damien Harris and Mike Weber are far from certainties to end up at Michigan and a backup plan is definitely necessary. That being said, it will be interesting to see how aggressively Coach Heck and company recruit Lands-Davis to see how much of a “backup” he actually is.

Unverified Voracity Bats Eyelashes

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brad-penner-usa-today[1]

Harris had ten points on four shot equivalents in last year's matchup.

Open the floodgates. As you've probably heard, WVU transfer Eron Harris got his paperwork and immediately spoke to a gentleman of distinction:

That is quite interesting. Harris, a DO WANT shooter, is essentially a class of 2015 guy who will be super-ready to play with two years of eligibility. But after taking MAAR and Aubrey Dawkins, there's no question that grabbing him seriously impinges on Michigan's ability to promise 2015 kids like Jalen Brunson and Jalen Coleman playing time—and their ability to offer scholarships. (Maybe less so Brunson since he is more of a PG, but with Walton likely still around Michigan's pitch has to center around the two of them playing at the same time.)

Do you grab that guy? Since Michigan's having a hard time holding onto guards for more than a couple years, I would say yup. Harris is also less of a deterrent to the 2016 kids Michigan seems to be doing very well with since he'll be around a maximum of one year after their arrival.

In the flurry of articles following that tweet two things became clear. One, being closer to home is not as much of a priority as the right fit

"The fit is more important that the location (of the school)," Harris said. "Eron is used to seeing his brothers and family more than he has the past couple years. But if he has to go to New York or California to find the right fit, then that's what he'll do."

…and two, Michigan's going to have to put on its prettiest dress and bat its eyes:

Within two hours of getting his release, Harris had already been contacted by Butler, Indiana and Purdue as well as Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Michigan State, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Ohio State and UCLA.

Harris is a terrific get-your-own-shot shooter who would have an apprenticeship before seeing the floor. If he's fleeing Huggy Bear because of fit, Beilein is pretty much the opposite… and this quote all but begs you to read between the lines:

“It is going to be the place that I can be myself,” said Harris. “I want to be myself. I want to go out there and play basketball and love playing basketball. I am a competitor first, and I want to play instinctively. That is it. I want my coach to respect me and I will respect him."

The art of shade, man.

OPEN THE PRETZEL. One WI SG Brevin Pritzl, a shooting guard out of Wisconsin, blew up over the past couple of weeks of AAU tourneys. This has intrigued Michigan, who's bringing him in for a visit this weekend. An offer is probably not in the offing unless they're really serious about moving on from the dawdling Jalen Coleman, but he's a guy to keep an eye on down the road.

2016 priorities. MI PG Cassius Winston is a highly-rated gentleman in his own right, one who Michigan has a lot of interest in. He's waiting for an offer this summer, but not in June:

“I’m pretty sure, if I know correctly, that I’ll be offered by the end of the summer,” Winston said on Saturday at the Spiece Memorial Run-n-Slam.

To me that says Michigan is going to give Derryck Thornton the first crack before they expand their PG POV. That expresses a level of confidence that Michigan didn't have when they went after Derrick Walton; they offered the other instate PG, Monte Morris, at the same time.

In other Thornton news, current main competitor Arizona picked up their second 2015 commit from a highly-rated PG, which can't hurt.

Hibbity hooblah! It's NFL draft time, hooray. Taylor Lewan will go in the first 15 picks tonight; Jeremy Gallon and Michael Schofield are likely to follow in the next two days. Baumgardner profiles Gallon:

"We've had dozens of guys go off to college and (not make it)) that had circumstances a lot better than Jeremy's," said Rick Darlington, Gallon's former coach at Apopka High School. "He had to fight to get into college. Then he had to fight to stay in college. Then he had to fight to get on the field.

"You look at him now, and it's easy to say he was a great college player in the end. But it was never as easy for him as it was for others. He always had to struggle ... it didn't come easy."

Gallon had to take three classes after his graduation just to get to Ann Arbor, which I know is something that was a problem with admissions. Not in Gallon's specific case, necessarily, but in the sheer numbers of guys Rodriguez recruited that needed serious help. Michigan would not look at Gallon today even if he was 6'4" because hypothetical rising senior Gallon's grades would make them move on.

On the one hand, some guys come through and become Jeremy Gallon. On the other, attrition watch.

In other news, Hoke defends Taylor Lewan again.

I didn't expect anything different, but wow. Various NCAA personages are appearing in front of a congressional committee today to talk about unionization. There is a lot of ludicrous stonewalling like the Stanford AD refusing to state how much his coaches make when you can google it in five seconds—the answer is three million dollars—but nothing quite so faceplam inducing as congressmen taking up irrelevant talking points that have already been eviscerated and left for dead while waving his iPad around:

Congressman Roe then resumed playing Candy Crush Saga before a brief nap, so he missed this riposte:

People in congress are just in congress for no reason.

Anger bit. Jim Delany talked to USA Today for two extensive pieces, one of which makes me involuntarily shake my fist at nothing in particular when Delany has the balls to make this assertion:

Q: Eight games vs. nine is a hot topic right now. What was the driving force behind the Big Ten going to nine conference games?

A: For us, it's a combination of things. One is the Playoff. Another thing is we're going to get larger (as a conference), we're going to play each other more. We want to be a conference.

Well, you were, Jim. And then somebody had to chase money in a nonsensical way, thanks to the faulty assumption that the current setup wherein sports leagues can involuntarily tax non-fans is going to last in an era of streaming.

This is not a "conference":

What I really like is that every athlete in the Big Ten who plays football will play every opponent inside the four-year period. That's what I like.

That is more of a conference than the SEC's setup where crossover teams without protected rivalries see each other once every six years, but Michigan hasn't played Wisconsin in four years. They may as well be in the Big 12. Going forward they will play the other division less than half the time.

I feel that this has to be intentional trolling. I mean I just…

There is subset of MBAs who have their own opposite-day dialect of the English language.

Simplify : offense :: aggressive : defense. "Seven ways that Lane Kiffin will change Alabama's offense" unfortunately doesn't include "make it squintier" but does include this familiar refrain:

3. Playbook simplified

One change won't be too obvious from the seats or living rooms. After playing with in an offense known for complicated terminology, players see a difference in Kiffin's style.

"Some coaches and quarterbacks over-analyze things at times," receiver Amari Cooper said. "Sometimes it can be pitch and catch, let the play-makers make plays."

Cooper, the leading receiver each of the past two years, also likes the in-game adjustments he saw from game film.

"Coach Kiffin calls plays based on matchups and what he sees," Cooper said. "Like I said before, it's a simple offense. If he sees they are in man-to-man coverage and I have a hitch route, it converts if he's close to me, we are going to throw a little fade route and make something out of it."

I really need Al Borges to get hired somewhere so there can be an article about how he's going to simplify offense X.

That article includes obvious balderdash like "finding the playmakers" as if that's a huge overlooked priority for an outfit that saw AJ McCarron throw for 9.1 yards a pop with a 28:7 TD:INT ratio and rushed for 5.8 yards a carry without even removing sacks. But it also gives you some insight into what Nussmeier does:

2. Fullback added

Alabama's been primarily a one-back running team during the Saban era. They used an H-back to help clear the way, but it sounds like the Tide will be using a more traditional fullback in 2014.

Michigan's picked up a one-back offensive coordinator just in time for their four-man fullback crop to ripen. To H-back you go, gentlemen.

Etc.: NFL.com scouting reports are creepy. Remember when John Beilein was not a golden colossus? Why Nick Saban hates the hurry up. Former MI SF AJ Turner is now prepping in NH and might be a guy to keep an eye on if Coleman doesn't work out.

Thursday Recruitin' Monitors The Competition

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Big Four, Little Ten?

Penn State had a heck of a day on Tuesday, beating out Ohio State—among many others—for four-star OT Sterling Jenkins, at one time the top tackle on Michigan's board, and four-star QB Brandon Wimbush. With 11 composite four-stars among their 15 total commits, James Franklin's program ranks behind only Alabama in the 2015 team recruiting rankings.

Given the circumstances, no school in the country is doing better on the recruiting trail than PSU right now, and they're doing so by dominating not only in-state recruiting, but the entire surrounding region—13 of their commits come from Pennsylvania or one of its bordering states. Michigan's had a fair amount of success in recent years recruiting in Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, and Virginia; with Franklin around, that success is going to be more difficult to replicate.

Meanwhile, Michigan State's on-field success is now translating to serious consideration from big-time prospects, and not just those from the Great Lakes State. Five-star WDE Jashon Cornell named the Spartans as his leader after visiting for the spring game, and he reiterated that stance in a free article by 247's Steve Wiltfong:

Cornell named the Spartans his leader following a visit to East Lansing for the spring game on April 26.

“I still feel the same way with them,” Cornell said. “They’ve had the best defense in the country the past three years,” Cornell said. “I’m trying to get better as a defensive player, and I feel Michigan State can help me become a better player and one of the best defensive players in the country.

The Spartans aren’t the only contender for Cornell, who plans to make his college decision on Aug. 28, which coincides with the first day of school and his season opener.

I have several schools in mind, UCLA, USC, Stanford, Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Miami and Iowa,” Cornell reeled off.

With a relatively early decision planned, Cornell could very well end up a Spartan, and such a high-profile commitment could potentially impact the decisions of other top prospects—we've seen this effect right here at Michigan. As for the in-state battles, MSU continues to be a thorn in Michigan's side, as well; the most recent development is their offer of 2016 South Lake four-star Martell Pettaway, who told Allen Trieu the Spartans are the team to beat ($):

"They will be a very tough team to beat. They are number one now. They kept it real with me since day one and showed me a lot of love. At the moment, I am not committing. I'm going to wait it out and rack up offers then look at my decision but it will be hard for anyone to be over MSU since the were the first ones who did it and they were up there always."

These aren't fun developments, of course. Please don't shoot the messenger, especially since the other headlining recruiting news this week is...

Kinnel Gets Alabama Offer

...Nick Saban going after Michigan four-star safety commit Tyree Kinnel. The Tide offered him on Tuesday, though for now, Kinnel isn't wavering in his pledge to the Wolverines, per Scout's Dave Berk ($):

“An Alabama offer means a lot,” he said. “I think it would mean a lot to any kid in the country that plays football. That is a big offer, but as of right now, I’m still 100-percent Michigan.”

There's good and bad here. It's never fun when the specter of Alabama snake-oiling is present; on the other hand, the fact that Saban is showing that much interest is nice validation that Michigan's got themselves a very good prospect in the fold. For positivity's sake, here's to focusing on the latter part.

Rumor Drama, Part Whatever

After four-star Mike Weber visited Notre Dame, Scout published an article with a quote from the Cass Tech back intimating that Michigan was on the outside looking in when it came to his top schools ($):

"Right now I like Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Notre Dame," Weber said. "I'm going to wait on a decision though because anything can happen and there's a lot of time left."

This caused something of a message board and social media firestorm, as these situations do. Weber took to Twitter to say he doesn't have a top four, and he talked to Brandon and further clarified the situation:

While Michigan putting out multiple recent offers to fellow 2015 running backs—most recently, three-star Georgia RB/complete sentence Mikell Lands-Davis—suggests they're not in as strong a postion as they'd hoped with Weber and Damien Harris, the Wolverines certainly aren't out of the picture for either.

New Offer/Peak Highlight Video

Michigan's latest offer to a 2015 lineman went out to WA three-star OT Calvin Throckmorton, who told GBW's Kyle Bogenschutz he's considering a trip from the West Coast to check out Ann Arbor ($):

Just six weeks away from summer vacation, Throckmorton says he plans to utilize his down time to take visits, with a trip to Ann Arbor to see Michigan on his mind as well.

“I don’t think I could really do those really until probably July or sometime then,” Throckmorton said. “But I definitely want to try to get out there to those schools.”

More importantly, somebody set offensive lineman combine highlights to the instrumental from Dr. Dre's "Nothin' But A G Thang" (baaaaaaaby), which is delightfully incongruous.

George Campbell Update

According to an article by Scout's Chad Simmons, Michigan is still hotly pursuing former commit George Campbell ($):

A number of schools are working hard to show Campbell he is high on their list. "Florida, Auburn, UCLA, Michigan, LSU, and USC are recruiting me the hardest," said Campbell.

An article on Cambell by 247's Shea Dixon features... an entirely different, shorter list ($):

(UCLA coach Taylor Mazzone), (Florida coach Joker Phillips), (Alabama coach Lane Kiffin) and (Florida State coach Lawrence Dawsey) have all probably been recruiting me the hardest,” Campbell said. “I haven’t been talking with a lot of coaches, though. My uncle does.

"I will start taking serious visits and checking out schools, and after summer, I want to at least cut it down to a lower amount of schools and focus on those schools. It’s just a matter of time to see what I want to do.”

Florida and, interestingly, UCLA are the two constants; the Gators are considered the odds-on favorite at the moment. With Michigan failing to earn a mention for a potential official or unofficial visit in either article, expectations for a re-commitment should be very low.

Etc.

2016 Traverse City West OL Thiyo Lukusa recently visited campus and told GBW's Josh Newkirk that Michigan is "still up there on my list"; also, damn you, polar vortex ($):

Due to 13 snow days this winter, Lukusa says his school year has been extended to make up for lost school time..Which mean his school schedule goes right into Michigan’s football camp season. So as of right now, he says his possible camp visit is pending.

“If I can make it down there one of these days and chill, maybe I can throw the cleats on and the helmet on and work,” he said. “I’ll have the helmet and cleats in the back of my car at all times this summer.”

Michigan checks in at #14 in the ordered top 15 released by 2015 five-star dual-threat QB Torrance Gibson, who currently has Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, and Ohio State on top, in that order. While that doesn't look so good, Gibson told 247's Ryan Bartow($) that Michigan's low placement was due to the fact they haven't offered—and he fully expects one to come once Doug Nussmeier sees him throw—and he later told Steve Lorenz an offer would jump the Wolverines up his list considerably ($):

Gibson tells me a Michigan offer would put them in his top 7 and that he would visit Ann Arbor at some point before ending his recruiting process.

Steve believes, and I agree, that even with an offer Michigan would be a longshot, but getting Gibson on campus would be a nice start towards changing that. The Buckeyes, unfortunately, may be the team to beat once they get him on campus—Gibson said the reason they landed at #4 is because he hasn't had a chance to visit them yet.

2014 Recruiting: Jared Wangler

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Previously: Last year's profiles, CB Brandon Watson, CB Jabrill Peppers.

    
Warren, MI – 6'1", 225
    

1247692[1]

Scout3*, NR overall
#53 OLB
Rivals3*, NR overall
NR OLB, #17 MI
ESPN3*, NR overall
#71 OLB, #13 MI
24/73*, NR overall
#34 S, #6 MI
Other SuitorsPSU (decommit), MSU, LSU
YMRMFSPAJordan Kovacs, except a linebacker
Previously On MGoBlogHello post from Ace.
NotesWarren DLS(Shane Morris). Son of John Wangler, brother of Jack.

Film

Midseason senior highlights:

Junior:

Whiplash time in this series as we swing from the highest-rated Michigan recruit in the history of recruits being ranked to one of the few guys in the class who qualifies for sleeper of the year consideration. (Note: the criteria here has expanded to allow one four-star rating from the four services, because there are very few candidates these days if you restrict yourself to pure three-stars.) OLB Jared Wangler is of course the son of John Wangler and brother of walk-on WR Jack, so when Michigan came calling it took him about a week to dump his Penn State commitment and sign on.

Despite the low rankings, Wangler has a few different indicators in his favor. A Penn State offer is nice; Wangler also had an MSU offer and an apparently legit offer from LSU. While that latter was undoubtedly influenced by Les Miles's relationship with the elder Wangler, it seemed to be a real thing($). Wangler was also selected to the UA game, though he missed it after shoulder surgery.

If those things are odd for a guy it appears no one even considered for a fourth star, well... yeah. There is something of a disconnect between those rankings and his scouting reports, too. ESPN's main downside is a need to add bulk, and opposite that you have these diverse and sundry positives($):

Demonstrates very good range to the sideline. Takes proper angles when in long pursuit showing the ability to open the hips to turn and run. ... Reacts quickly to the run and pass demonstrating the agility and balance needed to move through traffic and play downhill to the football. ... tough customer with solid wrap tackling skills and is a finisher who doesn't allow leaky yards after contact. ... relentless desire to chase down the football ...

We see very good underneath zone coverage skills. Displays the athleticism needed to cross over for depth with eyes on the quarterback and shows good short-to-medium route awareness along with high point interception skills. The ability to make tight turns along with his playing speed suggests man coverage potential. ... athleticism should prove very effective as an outside linebacker at the BCS level of competition.

So naturally they followed that report up by ranking Wangler several spots behind a dude going to Georgia State and a 5'10" dude with crazy eyes headed to Colorado. He did edge bros headed to Chattanooga and Albany, though. So he's got that going for him.

Allen Trieu has a similar take, calling Wangler a "very good athlete" and noting his ability to cover over the slot:

... often asked to play over the slot and drop into coverage. ... He does a nice job of taking on blockers and when he arrives at the ball carrier, he's a strong tackler who can deliver a strike. He's a smart, instinctive kid who keeps himself in good position, doesn't lose contain and does a good job of diagnosing plays quickly and using his ability to run to get to the ball carrier.

Trieu listed "athleticism," "hitting ability," and "pass coverage skills" as strengths in his Scout profile with "shedding ability" as an area for improvement--was really hoping for size there--and echoing his coverage praise:

Is able to play over the slot and does a nice job in coverage, both in man to man and dropping into zones. Has good closing speed to the football and is a good striker who explodes into his tackles. Having just transitioned into playing in the box, he simply has to continue to get stronger and work on getting off blocks.

247's Clint Brewster joins the "this guy can really cover" chorus:

...smart, tough, and plays with good technique at the outside linebacker position. He excels in the open field and does an outstanding job in coverage. .... Wangler has an instinctive and quick first step and made a lot of plays behind the line of scrimmage. Wangler’s talent level doesn’t really pop out at you but he is solid in just about every area of the position. ...fluid and fast enough that he's often asked to line up over the slot and handle quick coverage responsibilities.

And his dad is not an unbiased observer but what the hell let's get his two cents:

"He's around the ball, has great ball skills. He'll hit you, and always when he hit, you knew you were hit. But he can move, too. The good thing everyone likes is he's 215 pounds, and he can get up to 230 easy because of his frame. He can cover, too, because he's a converted safety. He can take the slot guys, has the versatility to come off the end and blitz, take on a fullback or a guard and make a play."

So what's the deal with the rankings? The catch here appears to be the "if you can't say something nice..." nature of the recruiting industrial complex. When Wangler hit camps he'd usually get a brief mention along the lines of "good in coverage against running backs" or "underrated athleticism" before folks moved along to other prospects that jumped off the field more. Brewster touches on Wangler's general lack of wow factor in the "improvements" section of his eval:

Wangler isn’t the most talented player out there but makes up with for it being solid in most areas of the position. He has average size with pretty good athleticism but not great overall speed.

In a generally positive live evaluation, Rivals's Tim Sullivan noted his "impressive athleticism" one paragraph before stating that Wangler will never be the biggest or fastest linebacker on the field. His scouting is full of this kind of schizophrenia. Josh Helmholdt mentioned his "great speed to go with his coverage skills," for instance. Even his coach has a bit of hesitation to him sometimes:

"He'll come up and hit you. He's got good enough agility to make some plays in the open field."

It kind of feels like analysts say these things in the same way they say Nik Stauskas is not just a shooter, you know?

Wangler is a high school safety Michigan plans on moving down to linebacker; I bet one dollar that Michigan envisions him as one of those hybrid space players. Michigan's move to an over defense clarifies a lot of weird things we heard about his recruitment, like the thing he kept saying about how the coaches saw him as a SAM or a WILL.

Those are two entirely different positions in the under. They're still pretty different in the over, but it seems clear the meaning there was "if we become an over defense you are a SAM; if we stick with the under you are a WILL. " This is a fit that Magnus foresaw:

For him to fit at SAM, I think he would have to play in a 4-3 Over defense, where he could cover the tight end and play in the C gap. As for the WILL position, I think Wangler has the mental aptitude but not the speed; he diagnoses the plays quickly, but I think he'll be too slow to slice into the backfield or beat Big Ten running backs to the hole.

So for now he is a SAM, one who can hopefully cover a tight end and defeat his blocks. Sullivan caught him in person a couple times and believes this is the plan:

...has a linebacker's mentality at the safety position. Although he's the size of a safety at this point, he has the frame to grow into linebacker at the next level - which Michigan coaches expect him to do.

FWIW, he told Rivals in January he was up to 225, which means he could hit fall camp at 230 or even 235, which is already in the plausible range for playing time. Michigan should not need him, but that does not stop them from playing guys all that often.

Etc.: Daily profile. Interview with the D Zone.

Why Jordan Kovacs? Kovacs was always the world's best tiny linebacker even if he was pressed into duty deeper due to his ability to actually do the things a safety is supposed to do. Wangler appears to fill the tough tacklin', awareness havin', tight end lockin' role that Kovacs generally did.

Wangler's obviously bigger and will move closer to the line of scrimmage; he probably cannot be as utterly reliable as Michigan's best safety blanket in a decade and a half, but kid is from a football family, and is a legacy like Kovacs.

Other option here is Michigan's best and really only space linebacker in the past decade or so: Stevie Brown. Brown came with top-100 guru rankings and high praise for his athleticism that was not of the Not Just A Shooter variety, though, and struggled for most of his career to apply that athleticism in a positive way. Kovacs is closer.

Guru Reliability: High-ish. Was relatively prominent for a couple years, attended a number of camps, and there is approximate consensus. Did not get to show his wares at the UA game, though, and his offers dispute he rankings.

Variance: Moderate. Position switch doesn't really bother me since it is a move down, and it seems like he's already approaching a plausible playing weight. But it is a position move and he is a tweener.

Ceiling: Moderate-plus. He can be an effective presence in the slot and a glue guy between front seven and secondary. Probably not going to blow you away with his rippling awesomeness.

General Excitement Level: Moderate-plus. I like adding LB/S tweeners in this era of college football who can shift between hunting slot receivers and still put a shoulder to a tailback and make him stop. Wangler's got a number of reasons to think he'll outperform his middling rankings, as well.

Projection: It doesn't seem like there's a reason to play any freshman linebacker this year what with Michigan possessing a solid, veteran two-deep that has a couple of special teams options further down the depth chart in McCray and Gant... but a couple probably will. It doesn't seem like Wangler will be one of them, what with Ferns enrolling early and Michigan pretty well stocked on slot options what with Countess and the previous guy in this series.

After a probable redshirt, James Ross will have one more year before a free-for-all for the starting SAM job develops between Wangler, Allen Gant, and possibly Chase Winovich or Mike McCray, depending on how those guys develop. Dymonte Thomas may even be a candidate there if he does not win a safety job, at least in nickel packages. Wangler has an excellent shot of at least finding a role then, as it's doubtful Winovich or McCray will be able to approximate Wangler's cover skills. Gant, another converted safety, will provide a challenge.

Even so Wangler should have a three-year run as some sort of contributor and seems to have a good chance to start as a heady effort guy who is built to eliminate tight ends and tailbacks against teams who spread the field.

Death To The Charge Change, And Other Rules

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MICH_TENNESSEE[1]1396059944018-19-NCAA-fen[1]

They did call this, but no one knew why or how

You guys! I'm super pumped that I wasn't the only one spasming at the injustice of it all when someone—anyone—tried to take a charge last year. Obvious charges were blocks. Obvious blocks were blocks, except sometimes you got a hilarious charge call off an obvious block despite the new charge-hating regime. John Beilein muttered about it politely, and I was reverse Otto.

Turns out that everyone hated it, and now the NCAA is (probably) rolling the change back, because everyone hated it. Here is the realtalk reason why:

Byrd said NCAA national officiating coordinator John Adams and other officials conceded that the upward motion element made it “nearly impossible to teach (officials) how to call it and it was nearly impossible to call it with any consistency.” …

…"It just was very difficult for an official, and a defender for that matter, to know when [that happened]. The great part about when he leaves the floor, it’s really the only definitive act, the only definitive instance an official can determine. And the upward motion was subjective.”

Amen. Even if you want to reduce the viability of the charge as a defensive strategy, you have to do it in a black and white way. Personally I've never felt charges were out of control. If I was NCAA God I'd conjure forth a flood to wipe away the face of the association, and then afterwards I'd leave charges pretty much as they are with two exceptions:

  • It's automatically a block if you take the contact when the player is on his way down. These kinds of calls evaporated last year due to the rule change but may come back now that they're rolling it back. If you can't close enough while the guy is still going up, it should be a block, as impeding a guy's landing is dangerous and you didn't really play defense if the ball has been gone for a beat or two by the time you make contact. Any play that a ref would award a bucket and then an offensive foul should be an and-one.
  • Flops are fouls. Simulation should be penalized as it is in soccer and hockey. Note that trying to take a charge is not simulation. The event against Tennessee above is definitely Jordan Morgan trying to take a charge. It's not simulation since Stokes ran him over with his shoulder down. Morgan is in a precarious position if Stokes does not and may end up falling over if he guesses wrong, in which case he should get called.

The new guideline:

In order to take a charge, the alteration will require a defending player to be in legal guarding position before the airborne player leaves the floor to pass or shoot. Additionally, the defending player is not allowed to move in any direction before contact occurs (except vertically to block a shot).

Improvement, certainly. Even so I'd simplify way you make the determination: if you get plowed in the chest while square and moving perpendicular to (or away from) the guy with the ball it's a charge. A lot of people are still bitching about the Morgan call against Syracuse because they've seen it in super-slow motion and in that Morgan is not dead still the entire time. As long as a guy isn't leaning or moving into the defender (and he gets there when he' still on the floor), it should be a charge. Make it as easy as possible to call. If this is too charge-friendly, extend the circle to NBA dimensions and ruthlessly call floppers.

But whatever, man. I'll take it. As far as impact on Michigan goes: it's a positive for anyone who relies on positioning and smarts over being the Sultan of Swat. So thumbs up.

The rest of the basketball rules chattering went well, at least from my perspective: it sounds like they're going to try to wrest a single timeout away from coaches and are pondering this change:

Committee members also recommended an experimental rule involving timeouts, with an eye on potentially using this in the Postseason NIT. In this proposal, when a team calls a timeout within 30 seconds of the next scheduled media timeout (first dead ball under the 16-, 12-, 8-, and 4-minute marks), that timeout will become the media timeout.

Yes, please.

Meanwhile, there wasn't much support for widening the lane or reducing the 35-second clock. Widening the lane is increasingly pointless in today's shooting-heavy game; shortening the shot clock without reining in zones and making everyone an NBA player leads to more ugly shots and little else.

164228714

RIP TO DA NIX

The one other thing that seems like maybe a big deal are a series of changes to (or at least increased emphasis on) various aspects of post play:

A defensive player pushing a leg or knee into the rear of the offensive player shall be a personal foul on the defender;

Is this not already the case?

An offensive player dislodging a defensive player from an established position by pushing or backing in shall be a personal foul on the offensive player;

This is the most extreme change, and it's hard to see it getting called. Backing a guy down is a time-honored tradition. Meanwhile, preventing that is some advanced defensive juju that remains possible—Morgan managed it very well. Suddenly removing that from the offensive guy's arsenal severely limits his ability to do much unless the post feed puts him in a spot he wants to shoot from.

This seems like the kind of rule that gets called a ton early in the season, gradually evaporates in the second half, and then is quietly rolled back.

A player using the “swim stroke” arm movement to lower the arm of an opponent shall be charged with a personal foul;

Okay. If I am interpreting this correctly they're emphasizing that the off arm can't be used to bat away hands when a guy tries to get a shot off. Hard to see this getting called much even when it happens since refs are trying to track 30 other things. It's unclear, though. Do defenders do this?

Post players using hands, forearms or elbows to prevent an opponent from maintaining a legal position shall be charged with a personal foul.

This seems like a point of emphasis thing on something that's already an foul, and that cuts both ways.

Unlike the offense-friendly hand-check changes of a year ago, these seem slanted to the defense. The one change obviously in the offense's favor seems way less impactful than removing the ability to back a guy down. If my read is correct those changes are pretty good for Michigan, which posts up about twice a season. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is probably thrilled with all of this.

Hello: Alex Malzone

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Alex Malzone quarterbacking Brother Rice to their third straight state title (Photo: MLive)

A long and meandering search for Michigan's quarterback of the class of 2015 ended back at home. Birmingham (MI) Brother Rice rising senior Alex Malzone committed on the spot after receiving his coveted Wolverine offer while unofficially visiting campus today. Malzone becomes the sixth commit in the '15 class and just the second on the offensive side of the ball, joining OL Jon Runyan Jr.

GURU RATINGS

ScoutRivalsESPN247247 Comp
4*, #15 QB,
#236 Ovr
3*, #16 QB 3*, NR QB 3*, 86, 
#21 PRO-QB
3*, #13 PRO-QB,
#353 Ovr

As you can see, Malzone's rankings are all over the place. Scout gives him four stars and ranks him inside their top 300, Rivals has him two quarterbacks away from four-star status, ESPN has their not-unusual disconnect between glowing evaluation and not even bothering to rank the kid, and 247 has him well below the four-star cut. I'm guessing some of these rankings will change now that he's committed; ESPN and 247 have him behind prospects generating very little in the way of major college interest.

The scouting services list Malzone as somewhere between 6'1" and 6'3", and other than a bizarre Rivals outlier of 166(!) pounds—stick-figure skinny—they all peg him in the 200-pound range. The general consensus is 6'2", 200, which looks about right based on photos and film. Maybe Rivals accidentally flipped the first '6'.

SCOUTING

Malzone first made his mark as a sophomore, when he began taking snaps away from Brother Rice's returning senior starter as soon as he took command of the playbook:

"I was the quarterback on JV last year and then got moved up for the playoffs," Malzone told Scout.com. "This year, [starting QB] Cheyne [Lacanaria] was always there to help me. Halfway through the regular season is when I started to get the offense down. Whenever I had a question, he was there. He wouldn't push me to the side. He would help with the defenses and which receivers he looks for, and it helped me a lot."

After attempting just 24 passes heading into the state title game against Muskegon, Malzone connected on 8 of 11 passes for 167 yards and two TDs to lead the Warriors to their second straight MHSAA Division 2 state championship.

As the unquestioned full-time starter last fall, Malzone faced Muskegon once again in the state title game, and he had an even better performance the second time around, completing 20 of 24 passes for 263 yards and three passing TDs and adding 33 yards and a score on the ground in a 38-21 victory.

It shouldn't come as a surprise, then, that Malzone's big-game prowess and mental makeup earn consistent mentions in his scouting reports. Scout's Allen Trieu:

After flashing big time talent last season, many wanted to see how Malzone would do as the full time starter. He has answered that question to date, leading his team to several big wins and several last minute wins, exhibiting poise, calmness under pressure and a strong, accurate arm

The free report on Scout, also written by Trieu, takes it a step further:

STRENGTHS
 Accuracy / Consistency
 Arm Strength
 Mental Toughness
AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT
 Size
Has the arm to make all the throws. Mechanics can still use polishing, but he has good velocity on his passes, shows excellent timing and is very accurate. Shows the ability to make tough throws into coverage and has great touch down the field. Shows calm under pressure and lead several late game winning drives and has been in big game situations. May not have ideal dropback QB height, but is a gamer and a winner. - Allen Trieu

A gamer and a winner. /crosses off two boxes on quarterback evaluation bingo card

Also, as is tradition, "size" for any non-prototype QB is listed as an area for improvement. /crosses off another box

The mental aspect goes beyond winning big games; ESPN's evaluation details Malzone's advanced command of a Brother Rice offense that seems like it'll translate well to Michigan's pro-style (for whatever meaning that phrase still holds) offense:

Really shows good command of the scheme. Plays in a traditional, multiple set from both under center and out of the shotgun. Is it good ball handler and sees a heavy dose of play action. Is quick to flip his hips around gets set and work through progressions. Plays with confidence and also plays within the scheme. Does not take a lot of risks with the football, but his arm strength allows for him to. Can work through progressions get shows anticipation off the first read to get the ball on time.

ESPN also praises his arm strength, "gifted rhythm and timing," and accuracy, mostly brushes off worries about any mechanical issues, discusses how he'd be a more coveted prospect if he'd been this productive in another region, and... leaves him unranked.  
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The main knocks on Malzone are his height—at 6'2", he's not the pocket passer prototype—and some mechanical issues derived from a youth focused more on being a baseball pitcher than a football quarterback. As mentioned, ESPN largely dismisses the mechanical concerns:

Release is quick and over the top. Does show a slight draw back where the bottom point of the ball points backwards as he pulls back to deliver. It's not alarming, but is evident. Similar to Kerry Collins, but nowhere near as pronounced.

Trieu seems relatively unconcerned, as well:

The two knocks on Malzone were his baseball style release and his lack of prototypical height at 6-foot-2. Mechanics are something he has steadily been working on. He throws well on the roll, but is not a running threat, although he shows good presence and ability to climb the pocket and keep his eyes downfield. He also stands in tough and will deliver passes in the face of pressure.

Tim Sullivan caught him at a game against a very overmatched team from Canada last October, and it seems Malzone occasionally let old, bad habits creep back into his release:

At times, Malzone reverts to a long baseball-style throwing motion, bringing the ball low, and delaying his release. However, he puts good zip on it, and continued work on his mechanics will straighten that out. His accuracy is excellent, despite the long release. It can be even better (and quicker) by tightening things up.

By the Elite 11 camp in Atlanta this March, however, Malzone seemed to have worked those problems out of his system, according to Scout national analyst Scott Kennedy:

Alex Malzone made his way to the South from Brother Rice High School in Michigan. Malzone was selected as one of the Final Five participants in the final drill as well. Malzone has a lightning quick release in large part because of a short windup that almost gives the appearance that he’s pushing the ball. He still gets good velocity on his throws and without needing to bring the ball back, he gets it out quickly.

At last month's Rivals camp in Detroit, Josh Helmholdt ranked Malzone as the #5 offensive performer, noting his outstanding arm strength and accuracy:

Malzone came into the camp as one of the most recognizable players and he really lived up to the hype. The most noticeable thing about him was his rifle arm. The ball really pops off his hand and gets to his target in a hurry. Malzone's good footwork helped him throw a very accurate ball. He was able to hit most of his receivers in stride throughout the day.

Perhaps most importantly, Malzone shined when it came time to earn his spot in the quarterback pecking order during his throwing session for Doug Nussmeier:

“My conversation with Coach Nuss went very well,” Malzone said. “He’s been all around the country seeing guys throw. I think he has one more, maybe two more on his list. He told everyone from the beginning he was going to see everyone throw. And then see what happens from there. And that’s pretty much what he told me. He said he was very impressed.

“Coach (Fred) Jackson actually came to the school at the end of the day. He just wanted to let me know he talked with Coach Nuss. And that Coach Nuss said I did great job.”

To sum it up, Malzone displays excellent arm strength and accuracy, has good footwork and pocket presence, is working through mechanical issues with apparent success, and has a track record of producing at a high level. His height, in conjuction with his lack of game-breaking mobility, seems to be holding him back from higher ratings more than anything else.

OFFERS

Malzone also held offers from Pitt, Wake Forest, Western Michigan, and a slew of other MAC schools. Penn State, among several other more prominent programs, showed serious interest; they were at his throwing session as well, then ended up pulling in one of the highest-ranked QBs in the entire class last week in dual-threat Brandon Wimbush.

HIGH SCHOOL

Brother Rice is gunning for their fourth straight Division 2 state title this fall, which will be their first season in 57 years with a new head coach after the legendary Al Fracassa retired on top following last year's championship.

The Rivals database search function is currently broken as all hell, so I can't bring up a list of notable Brother Rice products (I'm sure I'll get plenty of help in the comments); the most recent big-time prospect from BR is current MSU linebacker Jon Reschke.

STATS

After completing 27 of 35 passes for 474 yards, seven touchdowns, and no interceptions while taking snaps away from a title-winning senior QB during his sophomore season, Malzone excelled in his first year as a starter. He finished second in the Mr. Football voting in 2013, connecting on 190 of 281 attempts for 2,782 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, according to MaxPreps.

FAKE 40 TIME

247 lists a 40 time of 5.13, which is one of the least FAKE 40 times I've seen for a non-lineman. A token one FAKE is awarded due to the fact that I can't find the source of the time.

VIDEO

Junior highlights:

Single-game cut-ups, sophomore highlights, and a longer partial-season junior reel are available on his Hudl page.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Shane Morris is the apparent successor to Devin Gardner after this year, and with freshman Wilton Speight already having a session of spring ball under his belt, Malzone should take a redshirt year barring the unexpected. If we assume Morris is a two-year starter, Malzone and Speight should compete for the starting job in 2017, when Malzone will be in his third year in the program.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Michigan has their quarterback, at long last, and expect Malzone to be an active recruiter much like the signal-callers in the classes preceding him. Based on the current depth chart by class, which hasn't yet been updated for the commitments of Malzone and Garrett Taylor, Michigan has six spots left for the 2015 class, though that number will almost certainly grow by Signing Day.

The main positions of need moving forward are running back, receiver, tight end, offensive tackle, weakside DE, and both inside and outside linebacker; the Wolverines are in on several prospects at each of those positions.


Unverified Voracity Wins The Thing We Can

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On my signal, unleash dollars. It is time for the annual EDSBS charity drive. This is your opportunity to annoy other college football fanbases by giving more money than they do, thus preserving the cycle of college football life:

  1. Michigan doesn't do too well in football
  2. LOL Michigan
  3. Michigan wins EDSBS charity drive
  4. Who does Michigan think they are
  5. repeat

This year Spencer promises a full road trip to the winner, and since LSU-Florida is the same day as Michigan's only decent home game that means we can get him to see The Horror II. Sounds like a deal, man. I'll give him my ticket, even.

Suggested donations this year include $114 (TFLs allowed), $43.42 (fairyland score of OSU game), $13.73 (Jeremy Gallon receiving yards), and $–48 (rushing yards against MSU). Because self-trolling or Gallon appreciation is the appropriate response to last year.

As always, all donations go to the Refugee Resettlement Services of Atlanta, which does very important work for refugees. Give here.

Play the right way, just not quite as right as Michigan. SMU and Michigan have agreed to a two-year home-and-home officially, with the home game coming immediately and the return next year. SMU barely missed the NCAA tournament last year thanks in large part to a miserable nonconference schedule but did go 12-6 in the AAC. After their snub they ran to the NIT final, where they lost to Minnesota.

They lose a middling shooting guard and a decent four from their lineup; they add a Very Big Deal in TX PG Emmanuel Mudiay, the guy who decided to play for Larry Brown instead of Kentucky, which may have been a deciding factor for Devin Booker. Now Michigan has its chance for revenge(!). They're probably a tourney team, and since they're playing in a newly Louisville-deprived AAC they're likely to have a shiny record. It's a smart move for RPI purposes and hey-look-a-home-game purposes.

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Khalil Mack didn't play in the MAC because he thought it had a cool name

Sometimes unexpected things happen. These days it seems like everyone recognizes that the recruiting rankings dog-and-pony show is borne out as useful by the NFL draft. This is not necessarily the best thing in the world. There are a lot of differences between college and the NFL and when the main metric is what the NFL thinks, rankings can start answering a different question than "which college football teams are most likely to be successful in the near future?"

But it's still football and close enough. So when someone objects to the recruiting service folks pointing out that there's a pretty steep slope from five stars to two stars, they should have a good reason. Husker Mike's attempt from Corn Nation:

….what's a bigger surprise is that only four of the NFL's top 32 picks were considered in the top 30 coming out of high school. What's more, three of the NFL's top 32 picks were players that the services didn't feel could contribute at the BCS level.  In other words, the number of complete misses (two star recruits that went in the first round) were about the same as the rankings they actually got right (five star, first round recruits).

The question is not whether recruiting services are perfect but whether they are making something approximating the best guess that can be offered when these kids sign. The three guys the services didn't feel could contribute at the BCS level were Khalil Mack, Jimmie Ward, and Darqueze Dennard. Mack went to Buffalo, Ward Northern Illinois, and Dennard MSU. They had literally one BCS offer between them, and Dennard's was a chance thing:

He entered the final game of his senior year of high school with zero scholarship offers and dim collegiate prospects. … More than a month before Dennard's regular-season finale at Twiggs County High, Middle Tennessee State pulled his only college scholarship offer. … State assistant coach Dave Warner had no idea who Dennard was before kickoff, but he kept seeing Twiggs County's uniform number 3 making plays all over the field.

There were 200-ish opportunities for BCS coaches to offer any of these guys. One of those came to fruition. Nobody should look askance on recruiting services for not picking these guys out. Literally no one except MSU assistant Dave Warner did.

And that goes to my point. Talent is hard for the professionals to evaluate.  The professionals in the NFL have a tough time with evaluating, as Matt McGuire's 2010 study of the NFL draft showed.  It's tough for college head coaches, who's careers depend on it.  So it shouldn't be a surprise that the part-time amateurs who analyze it for the services don't get it right either.  No matter how hard they protest and proclaim their own importance.

That is not a point that anyone disputes, and picking out random anecdotes…

I mean, when a school whose recruiting rankings from 2009 through 2012 were ranked 77th, 48th, 29th, and 42nd lands three first round draft picks in the 2014 NFL Draft, you realize that coaching and development is as important, if not more important, than the raw talent.

…when the greater picture is clear is almost as pointless as complaining about posts like this.

Well, just pay attention. The ACC is set to join the SEC as conferences that play just eight conference games despite having a ludicrous number of teams. They're also leaning towards the mandatory actual nonconference game to prevent the most shameless bowl-scraping schedules.

This has implications for playoff selection, as does the fact the Big 12 does not have a championship game. And it's fine, as long as the football committee just replicates Matt Hinton's process for voting*, I don't care how many conference games other conferences play. That process is feeling out who teams have actually beaten versus who they've lost to; football is never going to be something that cleans itself up into neat buckets but the upside of having a committee is the ability to look beyond simple win-loss treadmilling. We'll see if they take advantage or not.

*[ED: SMQB seems to be down, unfortunately.]

Measuring on the LeVert scale. Michigan signed Aubrey Dawkins and duly sent out its press release about it. Usually these things are just boilerplate but this one has an interesting note on Dawkins's size:

"We feel very fortunate to have Aubrey join our basketball program," Beilein said in a statement. "He is very athletic, long, a full 6-6, and has a tremendous upside. We love his passion and diligence for skill development and know he possesses great understanding of the game of basketball. We anticipate his versatility as a player will prove valuable on our team."

Dawkins is coming in with two 6'8" guys who can play the 4, so that probably doesn't open up a new position for him but it is nice to continue getting those 6'6" guys who can shoot over zones and maybe play them.

Do want. 2016 NV PG Derryck Thornton has a naaaaasty crossover:

Are you an angel of the apocalypse girl because every time I see you you're surrounded by people clutching their extremities and weeping.

(HT:UMHoops.)

Quick hoops recruiting bits. 2015 WI SG Brevin Pritzl visits; no offer yet. Michigan moves on 2015 SG Dejounte Murray. Michigan's 2014 class now ranked 15th by Scout.

2016 OH SF Seth Towns gets the big in-depth visit; he is likely to get a June 15 offer. We've pulled the trigger on a 247 Crystal Ball prediction for Towns.

Etc.: Devin Funchess projected as a first rounder on highly reliable mock drafts that are highly reliable.

Vicious Electronic Questioning: 11W's Michael Citro

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Whether or not Jim Harbaugh made this pick to get Carlos Hyde as far away from Michigan as possible, it's much appreciated.

The NFL Draft is over. The NBA Draft makes us all sad and alone. While the NBA and NHL playoffs have both been amazing, the time when regular season baseball is the only sporting entertainment available is nearly upon us. (Thank you, World Cup year, at least.)

This seems as good a time as ever to check in with our mortal enemies in Columbus. Over the weekend, I did a Q&A over at Eleven Warriors about the current state of Michigan football, the mindset of the fanbase—if you watch Mad Men, you'll guess the Pete Campbell reference without having to look—and the early outlook for this season. It's admittedly not the most pleasant read for Wolverine faithful.

Anyway, 11W's Michael Citro was kind enough to answer a few questions himself, and you may even be somewhat heartened by what he has to say about this year's Ohio State team—a contender, to be sure, but one that has a few holes to fill and issues such as "can we teach the secondary how to tackle with their arms?"

Thanks to Michael for his time and very forthright answers, and to John Cooper forever and always.

You asked about the mindset of Michigan fans now versus 10-12 years ago, and I'd like to turn that around with a bit of a twist. How do Ohio State fans currently perceive the rivalry, and do they truly believe it'll remain this lopsided over the long haul, or is the memory of John Cooper—and, say, last year's game—enough haunting context to keep y'all aware of the fickle nature of college football?

I think we fall into two camps here. There are those of us who suffered in the rivalry under Cooper who are content to count the wins one at a time on a micro scale—and keep score from Jim Tressel’s first year and forward on a macro scale. We enlightened citizens thank our various deities annually because we know that ka is a wheel and the cycle can change without warning (ask Lloyd Carr).

But, there is also a more arrogant and entitled (not to mention, generally younger) segment of Buckeye Nation that believes Ohio State is the one who knocks. They think Michigan is in the midst of becoming Nebraska-esque—a good team with a rich tradition and history that has lost some of its national relevance and is doomed to mire in decent-to-good seasons without ever truly being great again. This kind of hubris is foreign to a guy like me, who sweats out games against Indiana and Purdue until they’re well out of reach. Seriously, did Tresselball not teach us how not to take things for granted?

Do you believe it takes away from the rivalry when the two programs are in such different places for a prolonged period of time? I know it's easy to say as a Michigan fan—it sure feels more fun for everyone involved when both teams are not only competitive against each other, but playing for something more than just The Game itself.

I believe the rivalry is more intense when both schools are at the top and there is something of note on the line. I mean, come on, the 2006 version of The Game was insane, was it not? That said, I don’t think the rivalry is diminished all that much when there is disparity over the long haul, although many fans do.

I mean, we don’t have a two-front rivalry the way Michigan does with us and MSU. We have U-M and that’s basically it—although Penn State fans are constantly trying to drum up a rivalry where none exists and Wisconsin-under-Bert was soaring to heights of hatred never previously seen. Gary Andersen seems too nice to hate like that. So Michigan is the arch-rival and then there’s everyone else.

Okay, on to the actual team. Who are the main candidates to replace Carlos Hyde, and can any of them match what he was able to provide last year? How do you feel about the offense in general?

Many OSU fans are under the misguided notion that plugging in any of the talented Buckeye backs will magically produce the same results that Hyde manufactured. I am not among those fans. Hyde was a special blend of power and speed that we probably haven’t seen since Eddie George—and he was running behind one of the best two or three offensive lines in school history. You don’t just plug-and-play when you lose four steamrollers and a ball-carrying rhinoceros.

Sophomore Ezekiel Elliott is the favorite to replace Hyde. He’s also a special talent but he doesn't have Hyde’s power and it’s unclear so far if he’ll have Hyde’s vision. Elliott is faster than Hyde, probably quicker to hit the hole, and more likely to break long runs as a result. But will the holes be there behind four new starting offensive linemen and Taylor Decker moving from right to left tackle? Unknown.

Bri’onte Dunn, Warren Ball and Rod Smith will likely all see plenty of time in 2014 unless Elliott just comes in and kills. I expect more of a committee approach but we’ll know more once fall camp gets underway.

As for the offense overall, I think Tom Herman will move toward more of a 60/40 run-pass distribution (it’s been about 65/35 the last two years). Rushing yards may be harder to come by under the revamped O-line and more passing may result. Plus, I would expect Braxton Miller to hang in the pocket more as a senior and try to make more plays with his arm. I feel pretty decent about the offense considering Ed Warinner has worked wonders with the offensive line the last two years and Herman has been generally great at everything except remembering he had Hyde in the backfield during the second half of the two biggest games of last year.


[Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

As for the defense, the line is absolutely terrifying, but I'd like to get your thoughts on the back seven. How does new co-DC Chris Ash plan to address the issues in the secondary, and who's going to replace the production of Ryan Shazier?

Sure, Ace. Go ahead and ask about Ohio State’s back seven [guzzles bleach, tucks into the fetal position and cries].

Honestly, it’s going to be fun to see the transformation Ash has in mind, should it actually happen. Ash plans to be more aggressive with coverage (but what new defensive coach doesn't?) and he has an actual defensive philosophy—something that seemed to be missing under Everett Withers. Ohio State will be younger but more athletic at safety and the secondary should communicate better. Ash will have the corners and safeties meet together, which is something that inexplicably wasn't happening the last two years. Oh, and the Buckeyes will likely play less nickel and dime and more base in 2014.

Josh Perry is the favorite to slide into Shazier’s role. Perry came into his own a bit last year but there is still concern. Shazier was a laser-guided Cloverfield monster. Darron Lee looks like he’ll join Perry and Curtis Grant as a starting linebacker, but Raekwon McMillan had a good spring and may force his way into the lineup. Lee is a former safety and has better cover skills, which is why Ohio State may play more base defense.

If you had to pick a breakout player or two on each side of the ball that Michigan fans may not be very familiar with, who would they be?

On the offensive side, Curtis Samuel should do the kinds of things Dontre Wilson did last year, now that Wilson is sliding into Philly Brown’s old spot. Samuel makes fast guys look slow. If it’s not Samuel that opens eyes, it may (finally) be Michael Thomas, a promising wide receiver that has been Ohio State’s best spring performer for three years.

Defensively, McMillan is one guy who will be noticeable if he gets on the field. But perhaps an even bigger threat to break out defensively is yet another young D-line prospect—Tyquan Lewis. He flashed all spring and literally everyone has been raving about him. He was destroying guys during the Spring Game. That’s not always an accurate barometer, but with Larry Johnson Sr. calling the shots on the defensive line these days, the rotation is going to expand to keep guys fresher. And yes, I just told you Joey Bosa will be fresh in the fourth quarter.

I know Wolverines and Buckeyes are strange bedfellows, but if I suggested we band together in a conspiracy to frame James Franklin for major NCAA violations, you're totally in, right?

I’m actually not that worried about James Franklin—yet. Sure, he seems to be killing it on the recruiting trail right now, but if anyone knows that there’s no such thing as a May National Recruiting Championship, it’s probably U-M fans. His record against the top teams in the SEC wasn’t great and until he shows me differently in the B1G, I’m not completely sold. Mind you, I didn’t say I wasn’t nervous. In fact, with recruiting like his, those major violations you refer to may take care of themselves (just kidding, Penn State fans….probably).

Related to the last question: how do you feel about the job Urban Meyer has done on the recruiting trail? How's the 2015 class shaping up?

Overall, Meyer has been about as advertised in recruiting. Of course, he made his biggest splash early by flipping a bunch of guys when he first arrived in Columbus. It’s strange to think some of those guys haven’t panned out (Se’Von Pittman transferred, Kyle Dodson is buried on the depth chart, etc.), but that’s recruiting. The start of the 2015 recruiting season has been very slow from an OSU perspective and it’s hard to say why that is. We certainly didn’t appreciate losing a prized QB like Brandon Wimbush to Penn State, which already has Hackenberg. Some people are nervous, but I get a sense that most Ohio State fans are willing to wait and trust Urban.

Not actually a question, but a pair of fill-in-the-blanks. If _________ happens, Ohio State wins the Big Ten. If ________ happens, Ohio State has a disappointing, title-free season. Go.

In the first sentence it has to be two things—if the defense comes together and the O-line gels, Ohio State wins the B1G. If those things don’t happen, Ohio State has a disappointing, title-free season.

Since you asked me, I'm required by law to ask you: what's your far-too-early prediction for The Game?

Whatever Brady Hoke is—and I still don’t think we quite know—he is not Rich Rodriguez. You can once again throw out the records when The Game is on the line.

My way-too-early prediction is that Michigan annoyingly hangs around until the final minutes again. But I think the home crowd and Braxton Miller make the difference in a one-score game. Remember, I am a product of the Cooper era and never ever feel secure about anything when it comes to Ohio State. I have been accused in the past by Michigan fans of being disingenuous when I downplay the Buckeye advantage, but last year I called a closer-than-expected game and look what happened—I spent the entire fourth quarter in cardiac arrest.

I’ve already ordered my defibrillator from Amazon for this November.

Hokepoints Finds Nothing in Assists

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No Cam you don't get points for setting up Morgan's one-timer.

Still playing with the big spreadsheet of stats. Sometimes I glom onto something interesting and sometimes, like today, I waste a lot of time to realize a stat they track has no bearing on play at all, and then I have to write my article, and then Comcast manages to make me wish Greg Robinson was my internet provider and, well, that's my excuse.

While Ace was writing the MSU preview for this year's HTTV (you are welcome to pester Brian to start the kickstarter) I was feeding him various kill-me-now defensive stats that showed State was really good at defense last year. One thing we pulled up was a larger percentage of tackles that were assisted, something MSU seemed to share with other teams.

This does make sense if you think of plays that are good for a defense, e.g. a lot of bodies going nowhere at the point of attack, versus how long gains tend to end. Likewise you'd expect the position of the player to make a difference just because of the variance in amount of space between him and the next defender. A typical distribution of tackles was as follows:

Position Group% of Total% Solo
Defensive Line24%51%
Linebackers35%55%
Defensive Backs41%65%

Noise in the data: I built this from complete game stats, not play-by-play, so I couldn't separate special teams plays, etc. I did re-categorize a bunch of players listed at incorrect positions but I couldn't catch all of them. Tweener positions also throw things off: a WDE to a 4-3 under team is an outside linebacker to a 3-4 squad, 3-3-5 teams call the Spur a safety, Jake Ryan puts his hand down in the nickel, etc. There's tens of thousands of tackles in the above percentages but as we get into teams keep these inconsistencies in mind. FCS teams and stats accumulated against them were removed.

Who's doing the tackling? So in the above table defensive linemen have marginally more assisted tackles than linebackers, and both have significantly more tackles assisted than defensive backs. If tackle assists mean anything other than "more forward players are doing the tackling" we can see that by testing whether the % of tackles accrued by the front 7 or % of tackles assisted have a closer relationship to tempo-free defensive efficiency.

Tackles and assists

So yeah, it's where the tackle takes place, not some mystical ability of great defenses to get more people to arrive at the ball at the same time. And neither is that strong of a correlation. Sorry, every platitudinal defensive coach ever.

So how'd we do?

The Big Ten ranked by fewest yards ceded per play:

Team% by DL/LBsRk% SoloRkDef YPP
Michigan State59%848%24.0
Iowa64%250%44.6
Wisconsin65%163%114.7
Maryland62%556%65.1
Nebraska58%1060%95.2
Ohio State56%1162%105.3
Michigan62%456%55.3
Penn State60%759%75.3
Northwestern61%659%85.5
Minnesota54%1367%135.7
Rutgers63%350%35.7
Purdue55%1271%146.2
Illinois52%1445%16.7
Indiana58%966%126.7

That Illinois and Michigan State are the top two teams at getting assists on their tackles says tackle assists aren't a thing. Rutgers was great at getting linebackers to the ball, but not until lots of yards had been accrued. Northwestern's a good study in this: in 2012 they had safety Ibraheim Campbell racking up Kovacsian solo tackle numbers, but in 2013 they had greater contributions from up front…with little increase in productivity.

I don't even see much in the way of stylistic preferences coming through. Michigan and Nebraska and Ohio State I believe (gleaned from what their coaches say at clinics mostly) are "spill" teams—they try to occupy defenders so a free hitter can make his way to the ball. Michigan State and Wisconsin and Penn State, are the ones I believe were "gap" teams—every defender has a gap he's responsible for closing.

So…okay, this stat means nothing. Good to know I guess.

2014 Recruiting: Chase Winovich

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Previously: Last year's profiles, CB Brandon Watson, CB Jabrill Peppers, LB Jared Wangler.

    
Jefferson Hills, PA - 6'4", 215
    

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Winovich is already Adam Jacboi's least favorite player

Scout4*, #281 overall
#26 OLB
Rivals

4*, NR overall
#18 OLB, #6 PA

ESPN3*, NR overall
#48 OLB, #13 PA
24/74*, NR overall
#25 OLB, #7 PA
Other SuitorsOSU, Pitt, MSU, Stanford, FSU, Miami, Oregon, VT
YMRMFSPAJake Ryan
Previously On MGoBlogHello post from Ace.
Notes

Film

Eighty yard touchdown run on third and 25:

Junior year:

Senior year stuff is on HUDL.

It was pretty easy to project Chase Winovich's future until a few months ago. Winovich comes with the violent upfield acceleration that Jake Ryan does, so redshirt him, pack some pounds on him, and unleash once properly marinated to be Ryan 2.0.

Then Ryan got moved to MLB and Michigan decided they were going to be more of an over outfit and things got murky. Winovich is tall and fast and has played his share of high school MLB, so the obvious thing is to do the bit in the previous paragraph and hope it all works out. And it might. It's just less obvious that it will.

Nonetheless, Winovich has a number of arrows pointing in the right direction. He chose Michigan in a heated battle with OSU and had a smattering of other A-level offers. After he committed he had an outstanding two-way senior season that saw three of the four services offer up a fourth star to him.

Let's see what we've won. Scout's Brian Dohn:

He runs like a receiver and is flexible. He has a very good feel for the game, anticipates well, has speed and burst and plays a physical style. … explosion in two or three steps is outstanding. He closes quickly and gets to the quarterback to make the play.

…patient as he watches the play develop. There is no guessing on what is happening. When it sees it, he plants his left foot in the ground and explodes to the right to make a tackle and shut down what looked like a big running lane.

247's Clint Brewster:

instinctive first step and blows plays up before they even happen. Winovich plays with outstanding aggression and is very explosive. He has excellent speed and can make plays from sideline to sideline. Winovich has enough speed to chase down running backs far down field. He does a nice job of using his hands to shed blockers and scraping to get to the ball carrier…. a force coming off the edge as an outside linebacker and can really close on the quarterback. … great fit as an outside linebacker in college, where Michigan is recruiting him at.

His coach:

"He's an all-out kid that's always playing at full speed, he's big, he can run, he just finds the ball and closes. He's a guy who is going to do whatever it takes to win, whatever he has to do. He's all about winning.

"We had him play on special teams, he played running back, he played quarterback -- whatever he asked him to do, he did it."

Scout also praises Winovich for his "knack for making big plays" and his ability to "fly to the ball every play." I wonder if he reminds Michigan's coaches of anyone. Hecklinski:

"A great family, wonderful family. Chase is going to remind a lot of people of Jake Ryan. Fun-loving, great to be around, great smile, great teammate."

Alright then. I concur; watching Winovich's tape was like seeing skinny Jake Ryan ripping around.

While he's relatively skinny at the moment, that won't last. Brewster mentions Winovich's "long frame and huge wingspan"; Scout notes he is "all of 6'3"+ plus" with "room to get much bigger" 

So that's the vertical attacking bit. How much he gets to do that is unknown; Michigan could flip back to an under next year; he could maybe get large enough to play nickel DE; etc. If he does end up on the interior long term, middle linebacker is something that he is at least a decent fit for. Multiple scouting reports praise his sideline-to-sideline range, coverage potential and tackling…

  • Brewster: excellent pursuit speed and angles, as well as being able to drop into coverage and get in passing lanes. Winovich runs through ball-carriers instead of catching or meeting them.
  • Kyle Bogenschutz: Winovich's athleticism and ability to run sideline to sideline stands out. In 1-on-1's, Winovich ran step for step with a wide receiver down the sideline and into the corner of the endzone before making a leaping and juggling one handed interception,

Finally, his ability to pick through traffic is also an oft-repeated asset. ESPN:

Maintains good leverage on the ball and isn't fooled by misdirection. Although he needs to become a more physical take-on guy, his quick hands allow him to shed and get off blocks. Demonstrates the quickness, balance and agility needed to avoid blockers and make plays in tight spaces. Moves through traffic very well, showing excellent sideline-to-sideline range.

Dohn:

… changes direction well and has very good feet, which allows him to navigate through congestion and avoid blocks. … Winovich shows his ability to run to the sideline and make the play. Again, he tracks it well and gets to the ball carrier quickly. He is also able to get through the traffic to make a tough play look simple and natural.

The MLB thing is actually rather plausible as long as he gets big and can shed guards.

Negatives are not mentioned much; when they are it is the obvious thing: he is 215 pounds. Brewster also mentions that he could "do a better job of getting his pad level down to take on contact" as a 6'4" LB, which is also something that shows up on film. Winovich tackles a lot of guys high. In HS this allows him to run through guys and flex afterwards; against guys his weight but squatter it might not work out so well. ESPN also mentions that he's inexperienced in coverage.

If you're thinking all this sounds pretty good for a guy who didn't crack anyone's top 250, well… yeah. The OSU battle even though OSU was already in possession of a couple of OLB types is also another positive sign. Even though Winovich got bumped by the recruiting sites out of sleeper of the year territory, it seems like he's still underrated.

As far as next year goes, a redshirt seems certain. Bogenschutz reported that Winovich was down to 208 by the time the O-D Bowl came around. That is well short of what he'd need to see the field at 6'4" even if he was at SAM, or WILL, or whatever the light, tight-end-tracking linebacker is going to be this year. Winovich doesn't appear to be the kind of guy who demands/asks to be on the field immediately; he told Nick Baumgardner that "my goal isn't necessarily to play as early as I can, it's to be the best player and contributor I can be for Michigan."

Etc.: Man, you could do a lot with high schools named these things:

The Thomas Jefferson football team shut down rival Elizabeth Forward last week in a sterling defensive performance.

"NOT SO FAST, FORWARD" SAYS JEFFERSON

ELIZABETH LEAVES THOMAS JEFFERSON ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD WITHOUT A CAR OR A GIRLFRIEND NOT THAT I'M BITTER THAT HAPPENED TO ME, THE HEADLINE WRITER

etc.

Also from that article, we may have a replacement for Jordan Morgan as far as trolling goes:

Q: Given the pre-game hype, do you consider the 42-0 win against Elizabeth Forward as a statement game for the TJ football team?

A: I think our true statement will come once we win the WPIAL championship, but beating Elizabeth Forward is simply a tradition to us at this point.

Older brother played at BGSU. Cute photo alert. Yoinked away from OSU:

"I had Ohio State jerseys, I had Ohio State buckeyes in my room, I had the Ohio State flag in my room," Winovich recalls. "I even had an Ohio State-themed credit card."

Why Jake Ryan? Same frame, same five-yard explosion that makes Ryan so adept at finishing plays in the backfield. Ryan was bigger coming out of high school; Winovich sounds like he's less of a wildman—for both good and bad. Ryan was a true sleeper, but obviously an underrated player.

Guru Reliability: High-ish. Healthy, played for PA powerhouse, little projection in terms of position. Some disagreement, though an understandable one since ESPN is way more fire-and-forget with their rankings than others.

Variance: Moderate-plus. Has to add a lot of weight, and there is some positional uncertainty.

Ceiling: High. Small area burst like that is very appealing. If he works out can be the sort of LB who racks up 15-20 TFLs and gets confetti thrown at him in postseason awards and whatnot.

General Excitement Level: High. Variance is variable. But dat burst yo.

Projection: As mentioned above, redshirt should be a lock. Afterwards it depends on whether Michigan sticks with the over or goes back; if they go back he is a natural fit at SAM and will contribute immediately, fighting with McCray and lighter guys to start. The over is trickier; he'd probably be at WLB in that setup, as Bolden/Ferns/Gedeon are a bit shorter and stouter. That would allow Michigan to flip their setup, as well.

So it's a bit fuzzy. Winovich is likely to find some sort of role because of his ability to go from point A to point B in a flash.

Unverified Voracity Grabs Dictionary

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A sign you may have broken things. ACC and Big Ten teams are considering playing nonconference games against… other ACC and Big Ten teams. IE, intraconference nonconference games.

Some Atlantic Coast Conference schools are considering scheduling future nonconference games against -- ironically -- other ACC schools, league athletic directors and coaches told ESPN.com.

This is because the ACC is even more totally borked than the Big Ten. They have crossover rivals and eight games so…

non-primary crossover rivals in the Atlantic and Coastal divisions may only play each other once in an 11-year span.

College football is so, so stupid.

As far as the Big Ten goes, it doesn't sound like anything is going to come of their mutterings:

Martin was kind of a space cadet, and I think he "proposed" this one year when the Big Ten was still at 11 teams in an effort to have the Jug game played even when Minnesota rotated off the schedule. This is how far we've come: Martin was alarmed that Michigan would have Minnesota rotate off the schedule once a decade, and now ACC teams will see each other once a decade.

It may be time to go in the thinkin' tank and come up with another ludicrously complicated dynamic scheduling setup that provides something resembling satisfaction. Or I could just… not do that again.

Even if the infractions committee was a lazy committee, and the committee was most certainly was that, perhaps the laziest in the entire NCAA, which would place him high in the running nationwide…

A sign you have definitely broken things. The NCAA does not have a major violations case and has not had one in six months.

Last August, the NCAA trumpeted a new violation structure and additional committee members to review cases more quickly and efficiently.

How is that going?

So far, the NCAA has no Division I major violations cases on its public database since Fordham's baseball team was penalized last November. The nearly six-month stretch marks Division I's longest without a completed major case since an eight-month period in 1997 and '98.

Very, very quick and efficient, then. Add another reason to the enormous pile of reasons to deregulate kids getting money from wherever they want: they already are and the NCAA isn't even trying to do anything about it anymore. Even NCAA honchos admit it, and they won't admit anything.

“I think everybody would agree the NCAA enforcement procedures are broken,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said. “They haven't heard a case in eight months. Without the weight of perjury or the power of subpoena, it's a wonder they get to the bottom of anything."

Let's take all the money wasted on compliance people and spend it on anything else. Full cost of attendance scholarships. Non-revenue sports. Cotton candy machines. Whatever.

Excellent timing, at least. Caris LeVert had surgery on his foot to repair a stress fracture and will be out for a couple months. He should be back for Michigan's late summer training and make the Europe trip, so any effect on Michigan's season should be minimal.

Yup, definitely cursed. Rutgers picked up Minnesota transfer Phillip Nelson this offseason, just in time for Nelson to get into real bad trouble:

The unknown man then struck Kolstad, who witnesses say was knocked out before Nelson allegedly kicked Kolstad's head "like a soccer ball." Steph Stassen, who witnessed the incident, told the Star Tribune that Kolstad was "unconscious after the first punch" and didn't brace himself as he fell to the ground, hitting his head.

Rutgers dismissed the guy without saying anything horrendous, which qualifies as their best crisis communication in a decade.

Hair trigger. Michigan's axed men's tennis coach Bruce Berque after ten years, nine of which saw Michigan make the NCAA tournament. Berque was 66-25 in the Big Ten, and tennis has long been dominated by warm-weather schools. Firing the guy after one mediocre 6-5 Big Ten season that still saw Michigan make the tourney is very much on the Excellence Demander side of the scale.

Muddling through. Elsewhere in non-revenue sports in which guys have gotten a quick hook, baseball finishes its regular season this weekend with an odd nonconference series against  #22 Kansas.

A late surge saw Michigan win 4 of their last six conference games and slide into fifth place. That puts them in the Big Ten tourney and lets them avoid a potential second-round matchup with 19-2 Indiana, one of the super-rare Big Ten teams that appears to be a threat to reach Omaha. The Hoosiers are 35-12 overall and #9 in the most recent Baseball America poll.

That's a lot. Penn State drew 72k to its spring game, which is kind of amazing since State College is tiny and isolated. That's more than the combined attendance for Michigan(15k… generously) and Michigan State(35k). Penn State did a big old thing with autograph lines and such, and held it late. Here's the impact of holding your spring game at the beginning of April versus the end:

Still, the April 26 crowd on the sunny, 55-degree day, was believed to be an unofficial spring game record in East Lansing and ranked as the 13th-largest in the nation.

Michigan, meanwhile, drew 15,000 for its spring game amid 38-degree temperatures on April 5 in Ann Arbor.

Also punting drills.

More hearings. Some Democrats are prepping another hearing for the NCAA, one which seems like it will feature fewer twits waving iPads around because they just googled something:

"As colleges and universities generate growing revenue and publicity with each passing year for colleges and universities, the NCAA, and sponsors, the potential for exploitation and abuse of student-athletes has never been greater. In turn, the need for an organization dedicated to protecting student-athletes is more important than ever."

Referencing Northwestern scholarship football players' effort to unionize and a National Labor Relations Board regional director's determination that that athletes are employees who can unionize, the letter says "if the NCAA were accomplishing its mission of protecting student-athletes from exploitive practices those efforts would be unnecessary and likely unsuccessful."

Protecting athletes from exploitive practices? This is its mission? It may be its mission statement.

Etc.: McGary won't work out at the NBA combine, which is not good for him. Talking Michigan with NW blog Lake The Posts. Illinois suspends C Darius Paul for all of next year. Paul was probably going to get 15-20 minutes backing up Egwu. Happy trails to UMHoops beat guy Joe Stapleton. Clay Travis is a twit.

The ACC moves its hoops championship game to Saturday; Big Ten is insistent on Sunday. Indiana previewed.

Eron Harris Has Michigan In His Top Three

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A rather important thing like 15 minutes after I publish UV:

The 6-3 Harris, who averaged 17.2 points and 3.5 rebounds as a sophomore at West Virginia, visited Purdue on Monday and plans to visit Michigan and Michigan State once he can get it aligned. After that, the 2012 Lawrence North grad may be ready to make a decision.

"Those are my top three, basically," Harris said of Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State, adding that he's still hearing from a few other schools, including Auburn and Indiana.

Harris plans on making a decision after he makes his visits. Assuming that playing time is a key, approximate SG lineups for his three finalists in 2015:

  • MICHIGAN: MAAR (So), possibly Caris LeVert(Sr)
  • MICHIGAN STATE: Alvin Ellis (Jr), Javon Bess(So)
  • PURDUE: Dakota Mathis(So), Kendall Stephens (Jr), Raphael Davis (Jr)

Michigan and State both have highly probable starters at the 3 in Zak Irvin and Denzel Valentine; Purdue also has Basil Smotherman and a couple other recruits amongst their wing-type gents.

If Michigan does expect to lose LeVert to the NBA after this year and this is communicated to Harris they've got a pretty attractive situation. Harris likely assumes he would play over Purdue's dudes and possibly MSU's. So then it's about who you want to play for, and whether you'd like to play in the tournament or at home.

Michigan's NFL Draftees: How Do They Fit?

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While the NFL Draft hasn't been much of an event for Michigan fans in recent years, this year's iteration produced three Wolverine draftees, including the highest-picked Big Ten player in Taylor Lewan. When I'm not allowing the Lions to ruin my fall Sundays, I'm spending them watching the Red Zone channel, with one eye out for my fantasy players and the other hoping to see a former Michigan player in action.

I'm sure many of you are as curious as I am to see how the newest NFL Wolverines fit in to the squads that drafted them. While it's possible all three spend this year developing behind returning veterans, each has a chance to carve out a role for himself.

Taylor Lewan, Tennessee Titans

Draft position: First round, #11 overall
New uniform number: #77, same as the old uniform number

Fit: The selection of Lewan surprised some due to the fact that offensive tackle wasn't their biggest need, but they clearly felt he was the best option on the board. The long-term plan is likely to have Lewan supplant 31-year-old stalwart Michael Roos at left tackle. That probably won't be this year, however, as the two-time All-Pro has started all but one of Tennessee's last 144 regular-season games. There are some rumors that Roos could be dealt before the season, but at the moment that appears to be speculation fueled by the Lewan pick.

That doesn't mean Lewan is destined to ride the pine, however, as he could provide fierce competition from the get-go for right tackle Michael Oher, he of Blind Side fame. While the Titans inked Oher to a 4-year, $20 million contract over the offseason, his on-field performance hasn't come close to living up to the hype since his standout rookie season—he was one of the more disappointing players on a Baltimore line that graded out as one of the NFL's worst by Football Outsiders in 2013.

In fact, despite Oher's new deal, SBNation's Titans blog projects Lewan as this fall's starter at right tackle. At the very least, he should push Oher for time this year, and with Roos in the final year of his contract, it's tough to see Lewan not starting by 2015.

Projection: Backup in 2014, starting left tackle in 2015


I can't say I expected to find a good blocking-related picture from this, of all games. [Fuller]

Michael Schofield, Denver Broncos

Draft position: Third round, #95 overall
New uniform number: #79

Fit: Denver's offensive line is in a state of flux, which could provide an opening for Schofield to crack the lineup, especially given his experience playing both guard and tackle. Last year's starter at left guard, Zane Beadles, signed with Jacksonville in free agency; one potential candidate to replace him, Chris Kuper, retired in March due to ankle problems. With two-time first-team All-Pro LT Ryan Clady returning this year after missing all but the first two games of 2013, RT Orlando Franklin is expected to shift down to LG while Clady's 2013 replacement, Chris Clark, fills in at right tackle.

That isn't set in stone, by any means. Per the Mile High Report, the Broncos picked Schofield for his versatility and potential to contribute right away at multiple positions:

The Broncos drafted OT Michael Schofield with versatility in mind. Denver's o-line is in the middle of some personnel shifting, with Orlando Franklin testing his mettle at left guard and Chris Clark possibly moving to right tackle. Schofield played both positions in college, giving the Broncos depth and experience - and another name to add to the competition.

...

"He's got a lot of upside," John Fox said of Schofield. "Very long, very athletic. A guy that we studied really hard in the Senior Bowl as well as his college tape and we think has tremendous upside and can come in and help us right away."

MHR's current projected depth chart has Schofield as the primary backup for both guard spots, which seems like a natural fit for him early in his career.

Projection: Backup guard, first lineman off the bench if an injury occurs


Sadly, Gallon can't bring Indiana's secondary with him to the NFL [Fuller]

Jeremy Gallon, New England Patriots

Draft position: Seventh round, #244 overall
New uniform number: #83

Fit: Given a cursory glance, Gallon to the Patriots seems like a great fit—New England had serious issues with their receivers last season and we all love the idea of a Brady-to-Gallon connection. The trouble is, with Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman on the roster, the diminutive Gallon will have to prove his worth as an outside receiver or special teams standout if he wants to make the roster. Amendola is signed through 2017 and Edelman got a four-year contract and a big pay raise this offseason; they're not going anywhere, and both play primarily out of the slot.

SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit, sees Gallon as a low-risk, high-reward pick who could push one of New England's young outside receivers for a place on the roster:

Gallon is interesting because there's no real competition on the roster. Is he a slot receiver? Because Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman have that covered. At 5'7 1/2, he's too small to be an X with Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins. The only remaining option is the Z with Brandon LaFell and Josh Boyce- and it's likely that Gallon will be fighting with Boyce. Gallon always rises up against the top competition and I wouldn't be too surprised if was up for the task.

Boyce was a fourth-round selection out of TCU in 2013; despite some serious struggles from the non-Edelman receivers last season (Amendola was hurt for much of the year), he only managed to catch nine passes in nine games, so it's not unreasonable to hope Gallon can beat him out. 

Boston.com, meanwhile, doesn't appear to expect Gallon to make the roster:

It's going to be real interesting to watch the training camp battle at wide receiver. Looks like at least one familiar name is going home. The way I see it, if you can only keep five (not including Matthew Slater, who is a specialist for all intents and purposes): Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and Brandon LaFell are the ones to keep. 

Slater is an interesting name here; he's been with the Pats for six years despite catching just two passes because of his ability on special teams. If New England keeps just six receivers, Gallon's roster spot could depend on his ability to excel in that area of the game while biding his time for an opportunity to open up at receiver.

Projection: Cut by the Patriots. I'd be willing to bet he gets a better shot with another team, as soon as this year. Gallon's a good example of a player who may have preferred going undrafted—and subsequently choosing from multiple training camp invites—to getting picked up in the final round.

Undrafted Free Agents

I won't break down the situations for each UDFA, as they're all essentially in the same boat: it's an uphill battle to make an NFL roster from that position, and—like Gallon—the path to surviving training camp cuts often runs through special teams. Here's the list as it currently stands, culled from multiple sources:

DL Jibreel Black, Pittsburgh Steelers
LS Jareth Glanda, New Orleans Saints
OLB Cameron Gordon, New England Patriots
S Thomas Gordon, New York Giants
RB Fitzgerald Toussaint, Baltimore Ravens
DT Quinton Washington, Oakland Raiders

Former Michigan safety Marvin Robinson, who played his final season of eligibility at Ferris State, earned a training camp invite from the Dallas Cowboys.


Hail To The Victors 2014

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HELLO PEOPLE

Our preseason magazine is back for a third year as an independent publication, and back on Kickstarter. It is the same 128 pages of twisted blue steel, containing a full team preview from me, opponent previews from Ace and a selection of the internet's finest opposing team bloggers, technical football stuff to thrill and amaze your friends (read: dog) with, a healthy slice of Michigan history, and profiles of Michigan Men.

WHAT'S IN IT

  • FULL TEAM PREVIEW: No, the offensive line page isn't blank. It's full of hope!
  • OPPONENT PREVIEWS: The enemy in detail. Ace brings the sass.
  • PINT A MINUTE: I am very proud of my Gallon retrospective title.
  • DECLINE AND FALL OF THE B1G: How this happened and how to get out, maybe.
  • NUSS FUSS x2: Doug Nussmeier's background, and a separate article from Space Coyote on what he wants to do.
  • HALL OF THE HIGHLY TOUTED: Mathlete evaluates the most touted recruits in Michigan history, because Peppers.
  • 1964 UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: Greg Dooley takes on a little-regarded portion of Michigan history.
  • THE LAST BO TEAM: John Kryk on 1989.
  • ORIGINS OF THE WAVE: A unique Michigan tradition, examined by former Daily writer Michael Florek.
  • ORIGINS OF THE GAME: Craig Ross on the paleolithic.

WHAT'S NEW

This year we're offering a DRM-free e-book to everyone who purchases a physical copy. This should get to you as soon as we're done with the thing. Share it, sure. Please don't put it on Pirate Bay.

What about basketball and hockey?

We found that there was just barely enough interest last year to push the basketball and hockey magazine to even and that was after a national title game appearance. We're going to split that magazine out separately, because we probably can't justify printing it up again unless we hit a certain level we don't think we did last year. We couldn't be sure because we had one mega-kickstarter.

Our goal is to get an e-book of the same length out, with more expensive on-demand printing options for people who really really want a physical copy.

WHAT DO I DO NOW

Click a link! Any link. Not this link. But any of the rest will do. Like this one.

Thursday Recruitin' Something Something Visit Policy Michigan Man

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Crap, This Again


Lookin' around...

Just when Michigan had finally received some good recruiting news, 247's Tom Loy dropped a big ol' WELP this morning ($):

I've confirmed with a source in [Michigan commit Shaun] Crawford's camp, who gave the green light to report this information at this time, that Shaun, accompanied by his father, brother and a close friend, will take an unofficial visit to Notre Dame on Sunday. They will arrive early in the morning, stay for most of the day, and then head home Sunday evening.

Crawford has not decommitted from Michigan and he's informed the staff that he will visit South Bend this weekend.

This isn't the first time Crawford's considered a post-commitment visit to South Bend, and this time it's more than just a rumor. He had very serious interest in the Irish early in his recruitment but didn't have an offer from them when he pledged to Michigan; when Notre Dame replaced departed DC Bob Diaco with Brian Vangorder, Crawford picked up that offer.

Notre Dame isn't the only school Crawford is planning to visit, either, as 247's Bob Kurelic confirmed he'll also check out Ohio State on May 31st ($).

Crawford maintains he's committed to Michigan, and it's important to note that he informed the coaches ahead of time about his intentions to take visits—not doing so was a major issue for this staff in the cases of Pharaoh Brown and David Dawson. The infamous "Policy" is going to get a lot of play as Crawford takes these visits, so let's clear up what this really means:

There's a huge difference between "recruiting your spot again" and completely breaking off a commitment. Michigan is likely to look around at other cornerbacks, though they could decide not to—it's not a huge position of need in the class and they've also got top-100 corner Garrett Taylor in the fold. If Crawford decides he still wants to be at Michigan after looking around, it's highly unlikely that door is closed; remember how Dawson's recruitment played out, and he was far less up front with the coaches about his visit intentions than Crawford.

This isn't good news, of course. Crawford is a hell of a prospect, and if he goes elsewhere it'll be difficult to replace him with a similar talent. Before hitting the panic button, however, let's see how these visits play out.

[Hit THE JUMP for what's actually an entirely positive recruiting roundup save for what you've already read, including more on Alex Malzone's commitment, three top 2015 prospects showing very serious Michigan interest, and more.]

More Malzone

With that out of the way, how about some good news? Tim Sullivan caught up with Brother Rice head coach Dave Sofran to talk about his quarterback and Michigan's newest commit, Alex Malzone ($):

"A lot of being a good quarterback is I think decision-making, and he's a very good decision-maker," Sofran said. "He's a quick thinker and he makes good decisions. He doesn't force things too much, he kind of lets the game come to him. That's one of the things that I think is unique about him. You do have guys that you see that have a great arm and they try to show off their arm all the time. He's a guy that has some touch on the ball, and if it's not there, he's going to go to his next read and let the game come to him.

Malzone's ability to change up speeds and put the right touch on the ball shows up in his film, and it this point we've got plenty of confirmation from various sources that there's little to worry about in terms of arm strength. For example, when Rivals ranked the top quarterback performances from all of this spring's Rivals-exclusive camps, Malzone came in at #6 in part due to his ability to throw a football pretty dang hard ($):

Malzone walked up to the Detroit RCS and walked away with position MVP honors after a day in which he was pinpoint accurate and also unleashed his cannon arm. He entered the weekend with offers from Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and a host of Mid-American Conference schools. The next morning he threw for a contingent of college coaches that included Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State and reportedly was just as impressive there, it came as little surprise that Michigan offered and Malzone committed just yesterday.

Meanwhile, Malzone picked up offers from Virginia Tech and Cincinnati since his commitment. He's not a flight risk—he's a lifelong fan who waited patiently and worked like crazy to get his Michigan offer—so it's nice to see other programs saw the same potential in Malzone that U-M did.

As for his potential contributions on the recruiting trail, 247's Steve Lorenz posted a forum topic in which Malzone says he "immediately got to" recruiting some of Michigan's top targets after his commitment ($). The 2015 has lacked a Morris/Speight/Ferns-type of commit who'll rally his fellow recruits and push fellow prospects to join up ever since Damien Harris decommited; they've got that now in Malzone.

More 2015 Updates

Michigan made the unordered top ten for four-star NC SDE Darian Roseboro:

Top247 defensive lineman Darian Roseboro of Lincolnton (N.C.) High School announced on his Twitter account Wednesday night that N.C. State, Michigan, Clemson, Tennessee, Ohio State, Florida, LSU, North Carolina, Alabama and Duke currently are his top 10 college choices.

Roseboro made a three-day visit last month that put the Wolverines at or near the top of his recruitment, and Steve Lorenz reports that he'll return for another unofficial visit in July.

In addition, four-star NJ OT Grant Newsome has set a return visit to Ann Arbor for June 7th, two days after he visits Penn State. Those two schools are believed to be the two most likely to land him.

Another four-star visitor will be on campus even sooner, as IN ILB Darrin Kirkland Jr. tweeted yesterday that he'll visit Michigan this weekend. Like the two prospects mentioned above, the Wolverines are in great position with Kirkland.

Etc.

Michigan offered 2016 four-star Cleveland (OH) Benedictine WR Justin Layne this week, per Scout's Bill Greene ($):

"This offer means a lot to me, and I could see myself going there," [Layne] continued. "They are definitely up there as one of my favorites. They have a great atmosphere and their coaches are great, so I'm very interested in Michigan."

Layne mentioned Ohio State and Florida State as two schools likely to join the fray soon—Urban Meyer apparently called shortly after hearing about the U-M offer—and he's already received offers from Miami (YTM), Michigan State, Pitt, and West Virginia. His recruitment will be hotly contested; it's good to see U-M getting in relatively early here.

For a really interesting look into the business side of recruiting, check out this post from 11W's Kyle Rowland, who talked with Ohio State director of player personnel Mark Pantoni and 247's J.C. Shurburtt for the piece. You may be surprised to see which Big Ten school has by far the smallest recruiting budget.

Unverified Voracity Can Stop With The Terror Books

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I'll miss you, terror books. Not really.

Aaand it falls off. I've been doing annualAPR posts the past few years because Michigan was in a dodgy spot after the Carr/Rodriguez transfer year saddled Michigan with a horrendous 897. That plus an also-dismal 918 in Carr's last year put Michigan within shouting distance of penalties, which they avoided by putting up a series of nice numbers. Since Hoke's arrival Michigan has largely avoided academic risks, so it was just matter of time before that 897 fell off and Michigan shot up. It just did.

Drumroll… Michigan's football APR is now 975. The constituent scores:

  • 2010: 942
  • 2011: 984
  • 2012: 981
  • 2013: 985

Their 975 places them fourth in the Big Ten, behind Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Nebraska; if they continue on their current mid-980s rate they'd pass Nebraska but still remain third if everyone else is static.

So hooray. The main upshot of this is that OSU assistants can't send out APR lists in novelty fonts claiming "the stats don't lie" or make charts that aren't even sorted correctly because their players managed to get through Pokémon 401. (But not Sort Function In Excel 330.) OSU's APR is now worse than Michigan's.

Oh, and the NCAA will not do bad things. Meanwhile, at Southern University…

…several people just got fired with prejudice.

Reload and fire at will. EDSBS Bowl reaches day four with Michigan still staggeringly far out ahead of the pack with 5.4k to Auburn's 1.3k. Give us the significance of your donation in the comments.

When in need of vague hand-waving that means nothing, call in the right man. Dave Brandon and Mark Hollis will testify for the NCAA in the Ed O'Bannon case. Hollis will claim that his deposition would better on an aircraft carrier on the moon; Brandon will tell the opposition lawyer that he "knows a little something about branding" 18 times. After each, the lawyer will calmly explain the question had nothing to do with branding.

Well then. Alabama tailback Derryck Henry took a photograph of himself in front of an expensive new car that he said was his, creating little "BAGMAN!" tornadoes across the internet. These are the natural order. This is a bit outside of it:

pat-white-twweet

I'm a little dubious that title was on the table for White, a nondescript three-star recruit, but it could be one of those deals like the Clarett/Pryor thing where the dealership lets you "test drive" the car for months. In any case, yes some guy gave this dude a car or money or whatever and the NCAA will not do anything about it so our choices are to be uselessly smug or repeal all this crap that's not getting enforced anyway.

An odd fit, yes. Will Leitch makes a good point about replay in basketball: because of the nature of the game, sometimes there are things that are going to be both wrong and right at the same time. An event from late in the Clippers/Thunder game 6 blew up twitter, demonstrating the problem.

… it is clear that Barnes fouled Jackson; even more clear, perhaps, than that the ball was off Jackson last. At this point, the referees had a decision to make. Should they follow the rules of replay to the letter and award the ball to the Clippers? Or should they make the right call, which was to give the ball to the Thunder?

They gave the ball to the Thunder, which Leitch describes as "vigilante officiating." That stuff happens all the time on out of bounds situations. Fouls are committed but let go when the ball goes out of bounds and is awarded to the other team. Once you start reviewing those you upset the delicate balance there. Basketball replay is inherently goofy because of that.

At least those reviews sometimes amount to something, unlike college basketball's unceasingly tedious replays for flagrant fouls that never, ever come back with a flagrant.

I would be in favor. With Notre Dame due to become a fading memory and replacements ranging from yawn to moderately interesting, I would be down with Tom Fornelli's radical solution to college football breaking itself:

ACC, Big Ten and SEC could solve all their scheduling problems in one simple step. Ditch non-conference games, stay within your conference, continue to foster the regional rivalries that made this sport so popular to begin with, and then send your champion to the playoff to take on the winners of the other conferences.

This is more of a problem for the ACC and SEC, which have a number of annual rivalries that would be set on fire by this. The Big Ten has none of those now. ND-MSU, you say? Mark Hollis just admitted that their series with the Irish is "gone," save for occasional games in the future.

So, yeah, I'd be happier with Michigan dumping MAC games and playing a near-round-robin against the conference. It will never ever happen in a million billion years, I acknowledge. But it would be better.

Numbers. Bill Connelly's got a charting project going that returns numbers. With the disclaimer that not all games were charted and therefore things might be skewed by sampling bias (12 NW games are in versus two Wisconsin games, but then again there were only 2 A&M games versus ten for Tommy Tuberville's Cincinnati), here are some overall trends:

49% [of plays] took place without a huddle, 51% came with a huddle.

Without a huddle does not necessarily mean hurrying, of course. Lots of outfits don't huddle but will use chunks of the playclock for check-with-me. I'm actually surprised the no-huddle percentage isn't higher.

56% came from a shotgun formation, 26% with the quarterback under center, and 18% from the pistol.

Would be fascinated to see how this developed over the last ten years.

On pass plays, the defense rushed four defenders at the passer 61% of the time, five 19% of the time, three 11% of the time, six or more 8% of the time, and one or two just 0.3% of the time.

Michigan was not far away from this, FWIW.

On standard downs, 26% of pass attempts were marked as a play-action attempt of some kind. On passing downs, 11% were play-action.

Every single one of the passing down play action plays was Al Borges running a waggle from a big formation on second and eleven. Holy crap. I can't believe he did that with the running game he had. This joke isn't funny anymore.

Etc.: 2015 hockey commit Kyle Connor might be a big deal: THN ranks him 9th for next year's NHL draft. Stay away from killer robots (and the OHL), Kyle.

Penn State fan loses respect for NFL because Michael Sam got drafted. How Iowa makes NFL recruits. Man no one should listen to says playoff will stay at 4 teams. Iowa, preseason darling? Soccer announces a tough schedule. The next time someone tells you that athletic departments don't make a profit, remind them that the scholarship money counted as debt is fiction.

Michigan adds Jon Jansen to their broadcast team.

Darrin Kirkland Jr. To Visit Michigan, Again

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Darrin Kirkland Jr. has been a frequent visitor to Ann Arbor and this weekend he’ll stop by again as he announced on Twitter.

Michigan is solidly in Kirkland’s top ten and an overnight stay in Ann Arbor this weekend could put the Wolverines near or at the top of that list. Darrin’s mom and dad will accompany him on the trip but will stay in Toledo with family while he bunks up with Mike McCray on campus. His plans for the visit sound promising and Michigan is in good shape with him regardless of the specifics.

“I just want to spend some quality time on campus with the players and have my family get a good personal feel for Michigan,” he said. “Michigan has done well recruiting me. My relationship with Coach Mattison is one of my best.”

Kirkland Jr. will spend just Saturday night in Ann Arbor and while all things are trending in a positive direction he told me that a commitment will not happen. He will stick to his timeline of an August decision date but another positive experience on campus definitely helps Michigan’s cause as these types of visits work wonders with recruits.

An Exercise In Optimism

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It's Friday, my close childhood friend is making an unexpected one-day-only appearance in town, and my desire to write a whole lot is waning by the minute. We've fretted ever since Mitch McGary's departure about Michigan's status as a Big Ten title contender. Here's a quick reminder of what John Beilein can do even when handed a less-than-stacked deck. Apologies for the rather cumbersome chart:

2011-12 Starting Lineups & Top Bench Players

  Michigan Michigan St. Ohio St. Wisconsin Indiana
PG Trey Burke (Fr.) (6’1, 175) Keith Appling (So.) (6’1, 180) Aaron Craft (So.) (6’2, 190) Jordan Taylor (Sr.) (6’1, 195) Jordan Hulls (Jr.) (6’0, 175)
SG Stu Douglass (Sr.) (6’3, 190) Brandon Wood (Sr.) (6’2, 190) Lenzelle Smith Jr. (So.) (6’4, 205) Josh Gasser (So.) (6’3, 190) Verdell Jones (Sr.) (6’5, 185)
SF Tim Hardaway Jr. (So.) (6’5, 185) Austin Thornton (Sr.) (6’5, 210) William Buford (Sr.) (6’6, 220) Ryan Evans (Jr.) (6’6, 210) Victor Oladipo (So.) (6’4, 210)
PF Zack Novak (Sr.) (6’4, 210) Draymond Green (Sr.) (6’7, 250) Deshaun Thomas (So.) (6’7, 225) Mike Bruesewitz (Jr.) (6’6, 222) Christian Watford (Jr.) (6’9, 230)
C Jordan Morgan (So.) (6’8, 240) Derrick Nix (Jr.) (6’9, 278) Jared Sullinger (So.) (6’9, 280) Jared Berggren (Jr.) (6’10, 235) Cody Zeller (Fr.) (6’11, 220)
6th Evan Smotrycz (So.) (6’9, 235) Adreian Payne (So.) (6’10, 230) Evan Ravenel (Jr.) (6’8, 260) Ben Brust (So.) (6’1, 190) Will Sheehey (So.) (6’6, 195)
7th Matt Vogrich (Jr.) (6’4, 190) Branden Dawson (Fr.) (6’6, 216) Sam Thompson (Fr.) (6’7, 190) Rob Wilson (Sr.) (6’4, 200) Derek Elston (Jr.) (6’9, 235)

A reminder: Michigan shared the Big Ten title that year with MSU, OSU, and Wisconsin, while that Indiana squad finished a game back.

Keep in mind that Trey Burke hadn't quite become TREY M.F. BURKE, Tim Hardaway went through a sophomore slump in which he shot 28% on 187 three-point attempts, and Jon Horford suffered a foot injury that forced a redshirt, so Michigan's only viable backup big was Evan Smotrycz, who never appeared very interested in post defense and transferred following the season.

Here are the KenPom Player of the Year standings from that season:

The four other Big Ten contenders are all represented. Of the four Big Ten players to make the list, only Jordan Taylor wasn't a college big.

Somehow, Michigan put together the nation's #19 offense despite (1) having only two rotation players shooting above 40% from three, and (2) attempting a higher percentage of three-pointers than all but seven teams in the country. The defense finished a respectable 61st in efficiency in spite of a relatively inexperienced lineup, a complete lack of shot-blockers or pickpockets—Evan Smotrycz, of all people, finished first on the team in both block and steal rate—and that whole 6'4" power forward thing.

At the time, Smotrycz was the team's highest-rated recruit on the roster—yes, including Burke and Hardaway. Backup guard Carlton Brundidge, a Southfield product in the same class as Burke, was the second-highest regarded prospect on the team. He transferred to Detroit after barely seeing any time as a freshman.

Sure, Michigan was fortunate to share the conference title that year, and they bowed out of the NCAA Tournament before any of the other Big Ten contenders. But look at that Wolverine roster, then look at this upcoming season's—talent-wise, at least by recruiting standards, there's no comparison, and even knowing how much Burke overachieved I'd take the 2013-14 roster over the 2011-12 roster in a heartbeat. How that team went 13-5 in that conference—one dominated by exceptionally talented big men, and featuring plenty of talented point guards to match up with U-M's best player—still perplexes to this day.

This is a long way of saying that you probably shouldn't count out John Beilein, because he's a wizard masqerading as a basketball coach/sub enthusiast.

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