Preview: Iowa

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Michigan comfortably held serve at home in their first matchup with Iowa [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE PREVIOUS MATCHUP

After defeating Wisconsin at the Kohl Center, Michigan handled Iowa at home, 75-67, in the second game of a three-game gauntlet that the Wolverines emerged from unscathed when they knocked off MSU at the Breslin Center.

Michigan kept a fast-paced Iowa squad out of transition, limiting the game to 66 possessions while outscoring the Hawkeyes 12-4 on the fast break. Nik Stauskas scored 26 while Hawkeye star Roy Devyn Marble was limited to just 13 points (3/9 FG, 5/6 FT) and two assists with four turnovers. Iowa's 1.02 points per trip was well below their current Big Ten mark of 1.17; this probably stands as Michigan's best defensive performance of the season considering the opponent and the fact that Derrick Walton missed almost the entire game due to flu-like symptoms.

First game preview. Instant recap. Brian's game column. OFAAT. Nik Stauskas feature w/ Iowa highlights.

THE LINEUP CARD

A reader suggested including jersey numbers in the preview to help make it easier to connect descriptions of players in the post to the guys running around on your TV, which makes so much sense I feel like an idiot for not doing this sooner.

Since the player descriptions often get clunky when I try to cram in various measurables and the like, I've decided to include a "lineup card" featuring every healthy player getting 25% or more of the team's available minutes. Also, in the grand tradition of unnecessarily long acronyms, the "SIBMIHHAT" column stands for "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three?"—the answer is based on the efficiency (and, to a lesser extent, 3PA frequency) of the shooter in question.* Starters are in bold:

Feedback is always welcome, but I think this is going to stick.

THE THEM

Iowa's stumbed a bit in recent weeks after racing out to a 4-1 start in Big Ten play. Beginning with their loss at the Crisler Center, they've dropped three of their last five—the two other losses coming at home against Michigan State (in OT) and Ohio State (by 7 in a game controlled by the Buckeyes).

Much of those struggles can be attributed to the up-and-down play of Roy Devyn Marble, who's shooting 5/18 from three over that span with a 9:19 assist-to-turnover ratio; while Marble isn't the point guard, he's the team's primary distributor in transition, and those numbers reflect that Iowa's having a much more difficult time getting into transition against conference foes. Marble is much more effective in transition—where he boasts a 53.8 eFG% and gets 57.4% of his assists, per hoop-math—than in halfcourt sets (44.4 eFG%). He's going to get to the free-throw line—before a 2/3 FT effort on Tuesday against OSU, he'd attempted no fewer than five FTs (and as many as 11) in six straight games—and probably score double-digit points; the key is making him work for them.

Point guard Mike Gesell was a total non-factor in the first matchup (4 points, 2 assists) despite the absence of Derrick Walton for most of that game; incidentally, his role looked a lot like Walton's, as he often spotted up on the perimeter while Marble initiated the offense. At his best, he's a very good passer who doesn't turn the ball over much, picks the right spots to shoot, and generates a steal or two. He's a very streaky shooter whose numbers (47%/32%/65%) are pretty mediocre.

Aaron White provides a significant matchup problem at the three; he's 6'9", shoots 65.6% inside the arc with range out to around 18 feet, and gets to the line—where he shoots 83.5%—at a very high rate. Nik Stauskas did an admirable job defending him in the first game, shutting White out until the final seconds of the first half before wearing down in the second; White finished with 17 points, but it took 12 FGA and 8 FTA to get there.

The other matchup to watch is Glenn Robinson III against power forward Melsahn Basabe, who exploded for 15 first-half points and three offensive rebounds in the first half against Michigan before disappearing in the latter stanza. He's one of the best rebounders in the country, especially considering his size, and generates points without dominating the ball; he's also a solid shot-blocker on the other end. Basabe platoons at the four with Jarrod Uthoff, a very solid shooter (54%/46%/80%) who's a slightly worse rebounder and better rim protector than Basabe.

Seven-footer Adam Woodbury is nearly Basabe's equal as an offensive rebounder (11.0 OReb%) and he's got a decent touch around the basket; however, his defensive rebounding and shot-blocking numbers are surprisingly low for a player of his size. He splits time pretty evenly with Gabriel Olaseni, who would boast a top-four OReb% (18.3) and top-50 block rate (9.5%) nationally if he played just a couple more minutes per game.

Other key reserves include forward Zach McCabe, a 34% three-point shooter, and guard Anthony Clemmens, a good shooter whose predilection for turnovers has led to a very reduced role in conference play. Clemmens' minutes have gone almost entirely to shooting specialist Josh Oglesby, a 6'5" wing who's hit 17/33 three-pointers this season. What was once an 11-man rotation has been essentially reduced to nine during Big Ten season.

THE RESUME

All six of Iowa's losses have come to teams ranked in the top 18 on KenPom; the only such opponent they've defeated is Ohio State in Columbus, though the Buckeyes avenged that loss on Tuesday. While the Hawkeyes don't have a bad loss, they're still searching for a signature win; aside from OSU, their best victory is a 21-point home blowout of #41 Minnesota.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors, all games (national ranks in parentheses):

Conference-only (ten games, Big Ten ranks in parentheses):

Iowa's breakneck pace has predictably slowed a little in conference play, though they still boast the fastest tempo of any Big Ten team and the quickest offensive possessions—opponents combat this with the longest offensive possessions allowed by any Big Ten team. The Hawkeyes are heavily reliant on scoring via two-pointers (55.3% of their points, 2nd in B1G) and free throws (27.2%, 1st), and many of the former come on second-chance opportunities.

The defense isn't particularly good or bad at any one thing save the prevention of offensive rebounds, which they do quite well. One potential area to exploit is their perimeter defense, as they allow the second-most three-point attempts in the conference; Michigan was 8/27 from three in the first matchup and could've easily done better if Caris LeVert (0/3), Glenn Robinson III (0/5), and Spike Albrecht (1/3) didn't shoot well below their collective average despite getting open looks.

THE KEYS

Control the pace. Michigan managed to keep the tempo in their comfort zone the first time around due to their ability to make shots—it's pretty hard to run off of made baskets unless you're playing Purdue. Shot selection, turnovers, and picking the right time to crash the boards all play into this; while Michigan's transition offense can keep pace with Iowa's, their transition defense is poor to the point that they'll want to avoid an up-and-down game.

Keep it even on the boards. Despite Basabe's three first-half offensive rebounds, Michigan limited Iowa to just ten in the first matchup (31.2 OReb%) while hauling in ten of their own (30.3%); the Wolverines actually outscored the Hawkeyes 14-12 in second-chance points. Replicating that effort, or even coming close, would be a huge boon for their chances of pulling this one out. Robinson (4 ORs, 5 DRs in the first game) keeping pace with Basabe is the big matchup here.

Play the hot hands. Zak Irvin chipped in a key 11 points off the bench and Spike Albrecht had seven points and seven assists the first time around; getting that level of production off the bench would be huge against a deep Iowa squad that rotates frequently. While Albrecht probably won't get 35 minutes again, he could play a big role in this one—Gesell doesn't provide a huge matchup problem for him defensively. If Robinson or Walton can't find their shooting rhythm, going to the bench for better shooting will be key for keeping Iowa out of transition—which, if you can't tell by now, is the top priority for Michigan in this game.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Iowa by 5

Elsewhere

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview.

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*In other words, anger is high when a poor outside shooter hits one, and not so much when a good outside shooter does.