Preview: Northwestern

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: A Google image search for "Bill Carmody" tells you everything you need to know about the Northwestern basketball experience.

THE THEM

Northwestern got the preview treatment before this month's game in Evanston, so this will be short and sweet.

The Wildcats will still be without Drew Crawford, but Reggie Hearn—who missed the first Michigan game with an ankle injury—is back in the lineup. Hearn is easily Northwestern's best scorer, shooting 56.6% from two and 36.8% from three, with a low turnover rate to boot.

Bill Carmody has made one other lineup change since the earlier meeting, moving 6'2" guard Tre Demps into the starting lineup. Demps doesn't do much but shoot, and he doesn't do that too well: he's at 41.3% inside the arc and 32.7% from deep, and in his first two starts went just 4-for-17 from the field.

The rest of the rotation remains the same. Dave Sobolewski is a solid point guard who can hit down outside shots and surprise with the occasional drive to the bucket. 6'8" forward Jared Swopshire can step out and knock it down from outside; he's the team's best rebounder, though that's not saying much. Seven-footer Alex Olah is a decent distributor from the post but he's struggled mightily to put the ball in the hoop—especially in Big Ten play—and his rebounding numbers are extremely underwhelming for a player his size.

Guard Alex Marcotullio is the main option off the bench. He takes nearly all of his shots from downtown, where he's shooting... 28.8%. Oh.

THE RESUME

The Wildcats have played seven games since losing at home to Michigan, going 3-4 over that stretch. They've notched a couple impressive conference victories, beating Illinois on the road by 14 and Minnesota at home by seven, while also taking care of Penn State on the road. Losses came at Minnesota (by 18), at home against Iowa (by 20) and Indiana (kept it within a respectable eight), and their last game was a 15-point road loss to Nebraska.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors, conference play only:

Northwestern is a terrible, terrible rebounding team, and that should be enough to seal a loss given that they'd do well just to keep pace with Michigan's shooting. They do launch more three-pointers than any other team in the conference, so if they go on a Purdue-in-the-first-half tear things could get a little uncomfortable.

THE PROTIPS

Stay out of foul trouble. Jordan Morgan will almost certainly sit this one out, so Michigan gets a little thinner up front. While Morgan is great at avoiding fouls, Mitch McGary and Jon Horford aren't so much, and Northwestern is getting to the line frequently in Big Ten play. Against a team that rebounds as poorly as the Wildcats, the Wolverines should be fine if they have to play Max Bielfeldt for long stretches, but I'm sure John Beilein would rather not test that hypothesis.

Key on Hearn. Hearn is the one guy on Northwestern that can consistently score both inside and outside. It'll be up to Hardaway or Stauskas to make sure he doesn't get open looks from three; when he drives, Michigan's bigs shouldn't hesitate to slide over and help—Olah is hitting just 50% of his shots at the rim, so helping off of him isn't a bad idea.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 19. Even without Morgan, Michigan should dominate on the glass, so unless the Wolverines go ice cold and the Wildcats can't miss, this should be a comfortable victory at home.

Elsewhere

UMHoops preview. Maize 'n Brew preview.

Sippin' On Purple's preview is magnificent, so long as you're a Michigan fan:

Even though Northwestern doesn't help heavily, Northwestern has a tendency of losing shooters: Hey, it's Nik Stauskas! Announcers like to mention that he's "not just a shooter!", because he sometimes does other stuff effectively, but that's like saying Rambo isn't "just an unkillable death machine" because he has lines of dialogue.

The rest continues in a similar vein. Rodger declares he's be pleased with a close loss.