Preview: Minnesota

I managed to navigate New Year's Eve and a Michigan State Rose Bowl win without overindulging myself, so of course I'm currently suffering from some sort of avian death flu.* The combination of black tea, Ricola, ibuprofen, and pseudoephedrine in my system currently has my reality looking like something out of a Flaming Lips music video, so I apologize in advance if none of this makes any damn sense.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: 5'9" point guard Deandre Mathieu is a speedster (unsurprising), good shooter (ditto), and very solid finisher at the rim in both transition and halfcourt situations (wait, what?).

THE THEM

Minnesota is a very different team from last year's squad after the departures of hyper-athletic terrors Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams, the main reasons the Gophers were the nation's best offensive rebounding team, and the dismissal of head coach Tubby Smith, whose insane 11-man rotation strategy likely cost the team a couple wins. This year's team, headed by Richard Pitino—yes, son of Rick—is smaller, more perimeter-oriented, and far less terrorizing on the boards; they're also a quality outfit with a lot of experience.

The backcourt duo of Andre Hollins and Austin Hollins (no relation) returns, and they're the two highest-usage players on the team. Andre is the team's leading scorer (16.2 ppg) despite shooting a decidedly mediocre 49.0 eFG%; his decent three-point shooting (35%) and knack for getting to the free throw line, where he shoots 85%, help cover for too many two-point jumpers that he hits at just a 29% rate. Austin is also a decent outside shooter, more efficient inside the arc, and the superior defender, and while he lacks Andre's ability to get to the line frequently he's a very solid rebounder for a guard. Both players average right around three assists per game while doing a good job of taking care of the basketball.

Joining the Hollinses in the backcourt is 5'9" point guard Deandre Mathieu, playing his first season for the Gophers after transferring from Morehead State. He's been something of a revelation as the team's most efficient offensive player, posting a top-50 assist rate nationally with a very impressive 50/57/80 2P%/3P%/FT% split this season; that includes a 65% mark at the rim despite only half of those attempts coming in transition, per hoop-math. In addition to getting to the line frequently, he's got a top-50 steal rate nationally. Michigan's point guards must be very aware of his lightning quickness on both ends of the floor.

The guards do most of the heavy lifting offensively, as the starting frontcourt of 6'8" forward Oto Osenieks and Elliott Eliason play relatively limited roles on that end. Osenieks is in his third season of unsuccessfully trying to be an efficient stretch four; he's not much of a rebounder at either end, and while he's greatly improved his two-point shooting (56%, up from 42% last season), he's hit just 7 of 24 three-pointers after going 2-for-26(!) as a sophomore and 11-for-41 as a freshman. Eliason is the team's best rebounder by leaps and bounds—there's a pun in there somewhere—and his 10.5% block rate ranks 40th in the country. His shots, which don't come too often, are split evenly between looks at the basket, where he shoots 71%, and two-point jumpers, which he makes just 20% of the time.

The primary backup at guard is 6'2" senior Malik Smith, who came to Minnesota from Florida International along with Pitino; he's a pure three-point specialist currently shooting 37% from downtown. Providing minutes off the bench in the frontcourt are 6'9" sophomore Joey King, a good finisher around the rim who can't rebound a lick, and 6'10", 250-pound junior Maurice Walker, a productive rebounder, scorer, and shot-blocker who only plays ~20% of the team's available minutes because he's absurdly foul prone, committing 7.9(!!) per 40 minutes.

THE RESUME

Minnesota is 11-2 on the year with both losses coming in the Maui Invitational, the first an eight-point defeat by #5 Syracuse—not bad—and the second by 14 points at the hands of #40 Arkansas in which the Gophers allowed 52 second-half points—bad. Minnesota has otherwise played relatively midding opponents in the comfortable confines of The Barn, where they defeated common opponent Florida State by ten, with the exception of a blowout road win over #72 Richmond.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors (national ranks in parentheses):

Minnesota is quite solid across the board, ranking 25th in offensive efficiency and 68th defensively. With solid outside shooting (35.8%) and strong offensive rebounding, the offensive production appears to be quite sustainable. Defensively, however, some cracks may start appearing as the competition stiffens; despite ranking 248th nationally in 3PA/FGA allowed, the Gophers rank a fortuitous 28th in three-point percentage defense, with opponents currently hitting just 29.4% from outside. Arkansas managed to light them up from the outside, hitting 8-of-17 threes, and Syracuse connected on a respectable 5-of-13 shots from distance.

THE PROTIPS

Fire away. Building on the three-point stats above, as well as the absence of Mitch McGary, I think it behooves Michigan to focus on generating good looks from the outside. They have a size advantage across the board in the backcourt, as the Gopher starting guards stand at 5'9", 6'2", and 6'4". Add in the serious shot-blocking threat of Eliason and it appears Michigan's best chance to produce points will be on the perimeter.

Find the right guy at the point. While Mathieu's size means he should be exploited defensively by Michigan's point guards, there are matchup concerns for the Wolverines against him, as well. Mathieu is quite the pickpocket, which could be tough on Derrick Walton, who's still pretty turnover-prone. That could mean giving Spike Albrecht, the better ballhander, the majority of the minutes is the play, but Mathieu's ability to get to the rim offensively could be a problem with that matchup. Michigan could try to go big and give Caris LeVert extensive time at the point, which would exascerbate Minnesota's size deficiency on defense, but is he quick enough to stay in front of Mathieu? I'm not sure, honestly. It'll be very interesting to see how Beilein manages his lineups tonight.

Close out. Almost 40% of Minnesota's shots are taken beyond the arc, and they're a better three-point shooting team (35.8%, 110th nationally) than they are at converting inside the arc (49.2%, 155th). Michigan has to stay disciplined with their switches on the perimeter, make sure to get their hands in shooter's faces, and generally do everything they can to force the Gopher guards to work for contested inside looks instead of open outside shots. If the perimeter defense isn't up to par, the Gophers could open up a big lead and get serious momentum on their side at home.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Minnesota by 2

Elsewhere

UMHoops preview. UMHoops Q&A with From The Barn. Maize n Brew preview. Maize n Brew Q&A with The Daily Gopher.

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*I'm not a doctor, but I believe that's the correct medical term for my self-diagnosed malady.