The Point Guard Conundrum

The optimal lineup? (Apologies for reminding you of those shoes.)

Michigan's underwhelming start to this season can in large part be attributed to the dropoff in play at point guard; this was expected with Trey Burke gone to the NBA, but the degree to which it's affected the team's overall performance has surprised. Without Burke drawing the attention of multiple defenders, Michigan's wings have had a much more difficult time generating offense.

As discussed earlier today, Derrick Walton hasn't had a great start to the season, and his status as starting point guard is tenuous after Spike Albrecht played the lion's share of the minutes against Arizona and acquitted himself well. In an effort to figure out which point guard gives the Wolverines the best chance of winning now, I took another look at the Arizona tape along with the usual foray into KenPom and hoop-math wonkery.

We'll start with the tape from Saturday, focusing on the play of each point guard on both ends of the floor, with an emphasis on the type of shots each generated. Here's the reel for Spike:

And here's Walton:

After THE JUMP, I (chart!) chart every shot from the game, break down my impressions of each player based on the above film and the season as a whole, and take a deeper statistical look into their play.

[JUMP, if you will.]

Before the film breakdown, let's look at the charts, which track shot quality based on where a shot originated and how well the defense contested it. NC stands for No Contest, LC for Late Contest, and HC for Heavy Contest; those categories are pretty self-explanatory, and obviously you'd prefer more NC/LC shots than HCs. Since I'm looking to see which point guard helps the team's offense function, not just what each point does when he has the ball, I charted all shots generated when each player was on the floor regardless of the passers or shooters involved. I define transition shots the same way hoop-math does—any shot in the first ten seconds of the shot clock following a steal, defensive rebound, or opponent made basket. The non-transition chart covers the rest, obviously. Asterisks represent shooting fouls drawn.

ARIZONA SHOT CHART

Both players do a good job of making themselves available for outlet passes and pushing the pace; based on both this game and the season at large, Spike is more likely to look for an open three-point shot in transition—whether it's him shooting it or a teammate.

Here's where the difference between the two players starts to come forth. While both players generated shots at the rim at a decent rate, Michigan got a lot more good looks from three with Albrecht out there, while—considering Albrecht played 25 minutes to Walton's 14—the team settled for a higher rate of two-point jumpers with Walton on the floor. The team scored 1.16 points per shot with Spike running the point compared to 0.79 with Walton; sample size is obviously an issue here, but when we take a closer look at the film there are underlying issues that explain why it's difficult to discount this entirely.

FILM BREAKDOWN

The contrast between the two becomes more stark when looking at the film. A few major areas in which the two differ:

PASSING

Simply put, Spike is the better passer at this stage, and it shows both on film and in the numbers. He doesn't make many bad passes—most of his turnovers come when he over-dribbles—and he's got much better chemistry with his teammates, especially Mitch McGary, which shouldn't be a huge surprise considering he's got more experience playing with them. Walton misses more open players—for example, he can't find a way to get McGary the ball at the 2:22 mark—and doesn't display the same knack for threading a pass into the post. Spike gives players the ball in a position to shoot immediately; Walton isn't quite there yet. While Michigan is willing to run the pick-and-roll with Spike as the ballhandler, they don't do that much with Walton, because Spike is better at utilizing screens as well as getting the ball to the rolling big.

SHOT SELECTION

Spike doesn't take as many shots when he's on the floor; what he lacks in volume, however, he makes up for in shot selection and efficiency. He's better at picking the right time to drive to the hoop than Walton, whose turnovers and poor shots have largely originated from driving into the teeth of the defense and getting overwhelmed by bigger players in the paint. Then, of course, there's Spike's ability to knock down threes from NBA range at a high rate, which also helps...

SPACING/BALL MOVEMENT

Due to Spike's outside shooting acumen and his knowledge of the offense, the team's spacing is much better when he's on the floor than it is with Walton. The opening possession of Walton's film and the one that starts at the 0:55 mark are good examples; on the former, Walton has to take a deep three as the shot clock winds down, and on the latter he's bailed out by a foul call at the end of the clock on a difficult pull-up two. One factor in this is Spike's outside shooting threat outweighing that of Walton's; teams have to account for Albrecht when he spots up, and since he's able to shoot from so far outside it spreads the defense thin, opening up room for everyone else.

Ball movement is also better with Spike on the floor, and this is obviously tied into the better spacing. It's also a matter of who's doing the passing. When Walton brings the ball up the court, he usually passes it off to one of the wings and heads to the corner; often, these sets end with a Stauskas or LeVert drive after a lot of Amaker-style cycling around the perimeter. Spike is more likely to be a part of the initial play when he brings it up, as his ability to pass or shoot off the pick-and-roll allows the wings to spread the floor and spot up.

DEFENSE

Here's where things get interesting, as I don't think there's much question that the offense fares better with Spike at the helm; the common thought is that his defensive deficiencies are keeping him from being the clear-cut starter. There's definitely something to this: Walton, while not stellar in this regard, is the better on-ball defender. While both players are beaten off the dribble at around the same rate, Walton's size advantage on Spike makes him better at contesting shots and preventing easy passes into the post.

Spike, however, has some advantages as well. He's more disciplined defensively, communicates better—blown switches were more common with Walton out there—and is more adept at navigating around on- and off-ball screens. I think he's a better transition defender, as well; while Walton is prone to gambling for steals, Spike is good about identifying a man early and getting back into good position—the same traits that make him a better help defender, in my opinion.

I think Walton's size and aggression, especially as he learns to reign in the latter, make him the better defensive player overall; I'm not sure the gap is wide enough that it makes up for the difference offensively at this stage. It's very telling that when Michigan was in desperate need of a stop at the end of the Arizona game, neither point guard was on the floor, and Beilein mentioned in the postgame presser that he's considering using the Caris-at-point lineup more often as a situational defensive look.

BY THE NUMBERS

Another chart, all stats from KenPom:

This gets to the heart of the matter, at least offensively. Walton uses more possessions and is less efficient with them, especially when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio. Walton's one advantage is his ability to get to the line, but he's not as good as Stauskas (66.7 FTRate), McGary (43.6), or Robinson (41.9) in that regard, and he's not too far ahead of LeVert (28.6) while being a less effective scorer inside the arc than any of those guys. Michigan doesn't need Walton to get to the line; they do need Spike to generate a healthy number of assists while still taking care of the ball.

After looking at the film and the numbers, I think Spike is the better point guard for this team in the short term; his passing and shooting really change how the offense operates and the difference between the two defensively just isn't enough to overcome that. Beilein didn't discount the possibility that Spike takes over the starting role after the Arizona game, and I wouldn't be surprised if that comes to fruition sooner rather than later, especially since this team is running out of margin for error when it comes to making the tournament, let alone getting a half-decent seed.