I hope you're all familiar with Ross Fulton of Eleven Warriors, who does an excellent job of breaking down the X's and O's for Ohio State and their opponents week in and week out. Ross was kind enough to answer a few scheme-centric questions about The Game, and he did so in more detail than I could've possibly asked for—his take on Michigan's offense alone is well worth your time.
Michigan's defense was surprisingly successful against OSU last year, give or take some pounding runs by Carlos Hyde and the bomb to Devin Smith. How do you see the Buckeyes attacking Michigan on Saturday, and do you expect to see any new wrinkles in the offense that we didn't see last year?
First, thanks for the opportunity to collaborate with MGoBlog, a site I have long read and enjoyed.
As to your question, Ohio State was able to gain yards against Michigan last season (the Buckeyes had nearly 400) but Michigan did a really nice job holding the Buckeyes to field goals in the red zone.
The new “wrinkles” you will see Saturday are the primary difference between the Ohio State offense of 2012 and 2013. Last season Braxton Miller was inconsistent as a passer and a decision maker on read/packaged games. As a result, the offense would devolve at times to the Miller and Carlos Hyde run show, even when defenses were cheating slot defenders or safeties against the run.
Fast forward to this year. Miller and Hyde are still Urban Meyer and Tom Herman’s primary weapons. But Ohio State is far more effective at constraining the defense with the screen and pass game. This reflects Miller’s development, as well as the improvement in the wide receiver corps, led by Corey Brown.
Meyer and Herman’s preferred method of operating is coming out in the First Quarter and hitting the edge with screens and packaged hitches to Devin Smith (above), and then taking downfield shots off play action. For instance, one play I expect to see Saturday (and one that will probably get under Michigan fans’ craw) is a deep crossing route off inverted veer. It is very difficult for the play side safety to stay home when they see a pulling guard and the possibility of Miller or Hyde running the football. Also look for Ohio State to use Dontre Wilson as a decoy in the flat to open vertical routes.
Then, once they establish a lead Meyer and Herman like to return to the base run game. Assuming the weather cooperates, I would expect some variation of that formula Saturday.
Are there any personnel matchups when OSU is on offense that particularly delight/concern you?
To me, there is one schematic and one personnel matchup that will be interesting to watch. The first is between Meyer and Greg Mattison in the wide side flat. Against spread teams, Mattison generally walks his Sam linebacker out to the field and plays him in the gray area inside the slot receiver.
Meyer and Herman love attacking the wide side field when a team does this. They will do so not only with wide receiver screens, but also the outside run game. For instance, one method they use is to run jet sweep away from the play side blocking. Miller will read that backside linebacker and if he bites down, Miller gives on the jet sweep. The Buckeyes’ slot receiver simply has to seal the linebacker inside and the Buckeyes can get easy yards, either with Hyde or Wilson.
As a result, playing that role is a lot to ask of any defender, but I was very impressed with how Jake Ryan handled it last fall. But this is a chess match I will be watching.
In terms of personnel, I think that Ohio State has an advantage inside against Michigan’s undersized interior. The strongest part of the Buckeyes as a team is their offensive line. Look for Ohio State to run inside zone and power at the 3-technique bubble.
[Hit THE JUMP to read how Ross thinks OSU will attack Michigan defensively, his thoughts on what plagues the Michigan offense, and his prediction for The Game.]
How will Ohio State go about crushing what little is left of Michigan's offensive soul?
Bring in a celebrity guest appearance of Jim Bollman to collaborate with Al Borges on play calling?
In all seriousness, Ohio State’s defense has certainly been inconsistent this fall, though they had their best game last week against Indiana. The Buckeyes’ problems have been against the pass – they have been stout against the run all season.
My guess is that Al Borges goes almost entirely with spread sets, and relies heavily on Devin Gardner in the run game – assuming that his body is still intact.
In response, Ohio State defensive coordinator Luke Fickell will likely bet that his interior six in the Buckeyes’ 4-2-5 nickel over can stop the run without help. I think Michigan will continue to struggle if they are completely one-dimensional and it could be a long day for the Wolverine offense.
Alright, I'll ask a semi-hopeful question; given OSU's issues giving up big plays in the secondary, how do you think they'll try to deal with the threat of Jeremy Gallon and Devin Funchess on the outside?
This is the other interesting part of this matchup of weakness vs. weakness if you will. In my opinion Michigan’s two best offensive skill players are outside where Ohio State has had its struggles.
The Buckeyes have actually been fairly good at preventing explosive plays in the pass game. Where they have struggled is getting dinked and dunked to death down the field in the underneath flats.
The Ohio State defense primarily plays cover 3. But the Buckeye weakness is in its second level defenders, with the exception of Ryan Shazier (above). The result has been lots of short completions as guys fail to get proper drop depth and/or trigger on the ball.
But this Buckeye weakness faces a Michigan team who often cannot or will not (probably more of the latter) utilize the short and medium passing game. If I’m Michigan, I put Gardner in the shotgun and throw hitches and slants to Gallon and Funchess until Ohio State stops it, and hope they can break a tackle or two.
By contrast, Ohio State’s pass defense has improved as their young defensive line has developed. As soon as they have the opportunity, Ohio State slides 3-technique Michael Bennett down to nose guard to get their four best defensive linemen, namely Bennett, Adolphus Washington, Joey Bosa, and Noah Spence, on the field together. On third and long, the Buckeyes then move Shazier down as a pass rushing defensive end. I certainly think the match up of the Bennett versus Michigan’s interior offensive line favors Ohio State. and the Buckeyes will likely count on their pass rush being their best pass defense.
As an X's and O's guy, I'd be curious to hear your thoughts about Michigan's offense. In your opinion, what's the biggest issue there, and do you think Al Borges can succeed in Ann Arbor based on what you've seen?
I think this season for Michigan has been a vicious cycle. As a first principle, I think that either pro style or spread offenses can work. But in my opinion the spread offense has taken over college football because its easier to find a 19-year old that can make one or two reads and make plays with his legs than it is to find a drop back quarterback that can stand in the pocket and read through his progressions. The NFL has trouble finding 32 guys that can do that.
Turning to Michigan, you guys have not been able to run the football. Whether Michigan’s inability to run is a scheme or execution thing, I can’t entirely say – it is probably some of both. I think you all have fully dissected the offensive line issues, but I do think the tailbacks have also not helped the problem. If you are going to be an I formation team you have to have someone at tailback that threatens the defense, and Michigan does not have anyone a defense game plans for (obviously Green and Smith are only freshman so they could develop into that).
The NFL response to being unable to run is to throw, throw, and throw some more until a defense unloads the box. The problem is that Borges is unwilling or unable to do so with Gardner, likely because of turnover issues and the offensive line and tailbacks not being able to protect. Borges has thus resorted to a grab-bag offense. He’s trying various things to see what can work, but in doing so it’s compounding the problem because the offense is not coherent and telegraphs plays by formation.
As to whether Borges can ultimately succeed is a tough question. On the one hand, Jim Tressel’s offenses at times had a grab bag aspect and he obviously had a lot of success. On the other hand, Tressel micro-managed the offense as a head coach so he could make sure all aspects of the team worked together.
Borges is obviously not the head coach, but he has a ton of responsibility by virtue of the fact that he controls the offense. As such, if he is not the right guy it is going to continue be a festering issue. If Shane Morris and Green become the type of quarterback and running back that Michigan had in the 1990’s, then I’m sure Borges will be fine. On the other hand, this season has been so much of an offensive mess that part of me thinks Michigan would be better off turning the page with a new offensive coordinator (and offensive line) coach.
Are there certain sets of plays or an overall scheme that you think helps mitigate a major lack of experience on the interior of the offensive line? Obviously, this is pretty relevant to the previous question.
The short answer is no, and that gets to my point about vicious cycle. In Borges’ defense it is hard to hide guys that are in the middle of every play. Nevertheless, I think that Borges has failed by not taking steps to mitigate the issue. Looking at it from Ohio State’s perspective, the guys I am concerned with for Michigan’ offense is Devin Gardner running the football and Gallon and Funchess on the outside.
If I’m Borges and I know that my line cannot block and has trouble with blitzes I am going to employ largely the game plan I think they should use against Ohio State – operate from the shotgun, using a primarily quick passing game to Gallon and Funchess, while running Gardner 15-20 a game. I know that exposes Gardner to hits, but not any worse than he has gotten standing in the pocket.
I know that Borges has tried some of this, but again he has tried to have it both ways so that nothing works. I also know that I would not ask those interior linemen to do something I know they cannot do – which is pass protect for deep drops off play action and/or run the football from under center.
Care to put forth a prediction for Saturday?
I struggle to believe that Ohio State-Michigan, at Michigan, will not be a close game. That being said, I see two teams moving in the opposite direction and I don’t know how Michigan will run the football. I think that Michigan can make it a close game if Miller is inaccurate and/or turns the football over, but ultimately I could see a score of something like Ohio State 34-13.
Thank you to Ross for going above and beyond in this Q&A; you can read his posts for 11W here and follow him on Twitter at @RossRFulton—doing both is highly recommended.