The Weekly Six–Northwestern

C’mon Fitz, Courage would have made the tackle there (Fuller)

1. The Six Factors

Field position kept Michigan alive in regulation and a strong day of early downs helped offset what we know to be an abysmal third down stretch. The defense posted outstanding numbers across the board, holding Northwestern below 40% on early conversions while still generating a lot of long difficult third downs and that Northwestern did a below average job of converting. Michigan’s offensive day wasn’t very good until overtime, but you can see more positive signs in their day than you can in Northwestern’s.

2. Individual Game Scores

QBs: Opp. Adjusted EV, Win percent added (National Rank)

Devin Gardner: –7, +30% (99)

Kain Colter: –1, +21% (72)

Trevor Siemian: –6, –19% (94)

RBs

Derrick Green: –1, –5% (139)

Treyvon Green: +1, +11% (71)

Mike Trumpy: +0, +1% (96)

WRs

Jeremy Gallon: +6, +48% (61)

Devin Funchess: +3, +17% (163)

Devin Gardner had his easily his lowest rated game of the season with only 285 yards on 55 plays (all numbers with sacks removed). He was +4.3 in overtime though, adding 34% to Michigan’s win odds in the period. Northwestern’s quarterbacks equaled the ugly numbers with Trevor Siemian being the worst performer with a –6 on the day. Derrick Green’s –1 isn’t great out of context, but considering Fitzgerald Toussaint’s numbers have been some of the worst in the country, moving close to average is a major step forward.

3. Game Chart

Regulation

Overtime

Swing Plays

6. +19% Gardner hits Jake Butt for a TD to open overtime scoring

5. +21% Gardner hits Gallon to set up the fire drill FG attempt

4. +24% Gardner runs it in for the 2 point conversion

3. –27% Gardner loses a yard on the big 4th down call

2. +27% Gibbons hits from 44 yards to sent it to overtime

1. –35% Gardner sacked for a loss of 13 on the final drive

Amazingly in a game this close all six of the biggest plays came when Michigan had the ball. Four of them were positive and two were negative. Overtime was unique in that even though it was triple overtime, Michigan was always in control. Scoring touchdowns when you go first will do that for you.

4. Ron Zook Dumb Punt of the Week

Some coaches are really stepping up their dumb punt game with the regular season nearing its close. Kent St saw a 4th and 5 with a 15 point lead in the fourth. Usually not a bad situation to punt in other than they were so deep in Miami (NTM) territory that a 14 yard turned out better than a touchback would have.

Sean Kugler, father of Michigan freshman Patrick was in a similar situation at UTEP. It was a ten point lead in the third and the Miners were facing 4th and 7 from the FIU 30. It would have been a classic no man’s land situation at the 40, but at the thirty? That’s practically punting from the red zone. It did work out for the Coach Kugler as the punt was downed at the four and resulted in a safety on the next possession. Ultimately having FIU as an opponent was more important than fourth down strategy as UTEP picked up its second win of the year.

Of course the Dumb Punt of the week just can’t escape Big Ten country, or Ron Zook’s previous employer for that matter. Normally punting on 4th and 13 from your own 17 is an automatic response. But what if there are only five minutes left and you are only down 12 to the team with the nation’s longest winning streak? Just like Gary Andersen did as Wisconsin played Ohio State, Tim Beckman puckered up and punted. Hoping to get the old stop, score on-side score again combination for the win. The Illini defense did half of their job well, getting the ball quickly back into the hands of the offense, unfortunately it was after allowing a 2 play 60 yard TD drive. Illinois then went three and out and punted again before allowing a one play 55 yard TD, turning a 12 point upset potential into a 25 point no-contest. Once again, Tim Beckman is your Ron Zook Dumb Punter of the week.

Bonus Pointless Field Goal of the Week:

Future B1G member Rutgers, got pasted by Cincinnati last week but they managed to cover the –35.5 point line by kicking a short 36 yard field goal with 16 seconds left to cut the lead from 38 to 35. Rutgers, getting their B1G on a year early.

5. Where Have All the Big Plays Gone

One of the stats I have started tracking this year is bonus yards which are defined as any yards gained beyond achieving a first down. Gain 11 on 1st and 10, that’s one bonus yard. 3rd and 1 play goes for 50 yards, that’s 49 bonus yards. It’s a measure of big plays that captures both quantity and magnitude. Michigan’s big play offense has been up and down but downfield success has been disappearing as Big Ten play has progressed.

The Indiana game has been removed because there is no doubt at this point that the results of that game were more about Indiana’s lack of defense than our presence of an offense. The last three games have struggled to crack 100 yards beyond the line of scrimmage after four of the first six games have crossed 140 yards. You can see it in the UConn game as well as early turnovers forced Devin Gardner into a safe place.

As currently constructed, this is Michigan’s only chance at generating offensive output. The offensive line struggles have made drive crimpling lost yardage a regular occurrence. If Michigan is going to get the offense to hold up the defense at all, I think it’s going to have to come in the form of big plays downfield because 12 play drives just aren’t going to happen.

6. Prediction

QB EV (National Rank/B1G Rank)

Devin Gardner: +6.2 (13/2)

Jake Rudock: +1 (70/??)

RB

Fitzgerald Toussaint: –3 (160/19)

Damon Bullock: –0 (85/11)

Mark Weisman: –1 (120/17)

WR

Jeremy Gallon: +8 (7/1)

Devin Funchess: +5 (52/6)

Iowa: No receivers in top 250 nationally

I feel like this season has turned into a broken record. Michigan’s defense should be in position to hold  an average offense to a modest score relative to field position and the offense will then be tasked with finding away to put some points on the board. That may or  may not happen. Iowa’s offense is just like Michigan’s defense, bed but don’t break. They aren’t great at big plays or early conversions but they are outstanding at staying ahead of the chains and managing third downs.

Can Michigan’s offense generate any big plays? That is the question at this point. The idea of consistently stringing together first downs seems so failed at this point. Too many negative plays, too much lost yardage. If Michigan can regain its big play swagger then they should be able to score some points but absent of that it should be another ugly Big Ten slog of a game.

Iowa [7 field goals] Michigan [5 field goals and a safety]