This Week's Obsession: Ingredients for Suck Pie

Peter Frampton:Michigan's offense::Let's stop this analogy right now.

It's nearing Thanksgiving; which means it's time to make pie! Who likes pie? Everyone likes pie! Unless it's a "why our offense sucks so much" pie. Alas, you have all been sampling lots of "Why our offense sucks so much" pie these last few weeks, and we've identified most of the ingredients in this suck pie. What we haven't done yet is say how much any one ingredient is contributing relative to any other. This seems important.

So, I'm going to give you a list of identified ingredients in this suck pie, and you're going to tell me--pie chart like (i.e. adds up to 100%)--how much each suck factor, in your estimated opinion, has gone into our pie:

1. Fans demand Michigan Manliness. Thus putting the previous regime on not-firm ground and necessitating another transition and talk of MANBALL for stupid political reasons. Rosenberg/Snyder go here.
2. Rich Rod! One OL in 2010 and his own suck pie of defense that necessitated another transition. GERG goes here. Zero RS juniors goes here.
3. The Process. Which helped doom the 2011 offensive line class. "Just two OL, both of them fliers, in two classes!" goes here. "None of our tight ends are old enough to buy beer!" goes here. "We're stuck running high school blocking schemes because interior OL are too young!" goes here.
   

   If you believe this is a result of Nebraska's defense having a sudden aneurism of competence (hence all the blood), please answer #10 "Universe" on your cards. [Fuller]

4. Hoke demands MANBALL! Only if you think there's an executive order from Hoke that forced Borges to use more "big"--ie TEs and FBs instead of WRs--formations and man-blocking.
5. Borges can't cook fusion cuisine. Incoherent playcalling and gameplanning, players constantly put in bad positions and asked to do more than their skills suggest they're good at. RPS minuses go here.
6. Dithered on MANBALL transition for Denard. Spent 2011 and 2012 trying to be all things; decision not to sacrifice those years to transition is costing us in 2013. "Older guys can't MANBALL" goes here.
7. Dithering in 2013. Personnel switches, gimmick offenses, acts of desperation burned practice time, retarded player development, and contributed to snowballing effect. "Tackle over" goes here.
8. Funk/OL and execution. Offensive linemen not doing the things that should reasonably be expected of them given their talent/experience levels. "Schofield is missing slide protections" goes here.
9. Ferrigno/Jackson and execution. Backs and tight ends who can't block or run routes (if you think this is just on them being too young, that goes elsewhere; if you think Funchess ought to be able to crack down and Toussaint get under a guy by now it goes here)
10. Bloodymindedness of Universe. IE anything else: Spain, Monkey Rodeo, MSU broke Devin, opponents are just that good, etc.

[After the jump, the lede, buried]

the results come in…

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Ace: Hoo boy. 5-7 are kinda tough not to lump together, but here goes nothing.

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Coach Brown: Any way I can get some more percentage points?

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Altogether now…

Yellow shades are problems Michigan needs to address, blue are things in the past that we can only hope will improve naturally. We put about 2/3rds of the troubles are on the current staff. Clinking embliggens.

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Now we explain…

Brian: I assume most of these are straightforward with the exception of #9, which is a lot of blame to heap on 2 or 3 of the 7 or 8 blockers on a particular play. But I have just watched AJ Williams execute the worst imaginable pass protection on a Gardner sack and I'm saucy. I'm saucy because Justice Hayes saw that and aborted his attempt to block a blitzing LB, leaving that guy to run free at Gardner, so when Gardner escaped the first guy he still got hammered.

That the TEs and RBs are awful at blocking is the hidden story of the season. Funchess is one thing (and he's still really bad); Williams and Toussaint and everyone else at tailback are another. Williams has seemingly gone backwards and the inability to find anyone who can pick up a blitz until game 10 is unbelievable. How much better is this offense if Vincent Smith is still here? Think about that. And then tell Fred Jackson to stop drinking three different beverages and do something about it.

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Seth: I've got Borges shouldering more blame than you other guys so I'll explain why. I just watched the same play as Brian and that inspired Hokepoints yesterday. That the TEs and RBs can't block is as much of a problem as the fact that the OL can't block. The difference is while you have to play five OL every play, nobody's forcing the coaches to roll out five fullbacks. You're allowed to have receivers, and Michigan has some good ones being critically under-used.

Borges's answer to teams blitzing has been to get heavier: more A.J. Williams, more Joe Kerridge, and barely more Dileo than Paskorz. On Saturday they often lined up A.J. Williams as the only eligible receiver to one side, and then sometimes tried to roll away from that side while the opponent blitzed, knowing full well that the pass blocking can't hold up long enough to drag a receiver over there. Rather than have their running backs run a pattern, they put Kerridge in at RB to say "yes we're passing, but at least you can't rag doll him a la Toussaint." This is the boxing equivalent of curling up in a ball and covering your face with your hands.

Anyway, I'm less concerned that a bunch of true sophomores and younger aren't good at blocking yet (it's a skill) than I am about their coaches throwing them into the fire while leaving Dileo and Chesson on the sideline, so I gave a bunch of those points to Borges.

I've also got just 5% on Rich Rod while the rest of you think he's a quarter of the problem. It was egregious to not recruit more bodies in 2010 but they had to be useful bodies and he was doing that recruiting under a 3-9 season and the cloud of crap from the Free Press witch hunt. He also had tons of redshirt freshmen on the roster so he was selling playing time as a junior/senior. He wouldn't be the first coach to pass on bad prospects and bank on a big OL class the following year.

As for putting the program in a rut with his mishandling of the defense and getting himself fired, well, it's been three years. Of Hoke's classmates, Kevin Wilson inherited an offensive roster with great receivers and nothing else and created a passing juggernaut that makes Oregon look slow, Jerry Kill built an identity at Minnesota, and James Franklin has Vanderbilt recruiting like an SEC team. That those guys had a few months more to recruit their first classes I put on The Process. That Rich Rod had to pick from the value bin for D.C.s and didn't get a fourth year I put on Martin, and the fanbase (including Rosenberg/Snyder) who didn't give the guy much of a chance.

Minnesota and Indiana's head coaches as positive examples: now there's something I never in a million years thought I'd be saying right now.

My points for Bloodyminded Universe is for Michigan State (of all people) having a pulverizing defense that gleefully beat the last vestiges of Notre Dame Devin Gardner out of him.

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Brian: You are far too kind to Rodriguez. There can be no excuse for bringing in just one offensive lineman in a year and even with Jake Fisher, his "load up" the next year consisted of Posada, who he took super early, Miller, also a really early take, Bryant, and hypothetically Fisher. Michigan is barely less screwed if RR sticks around, and recruiting super-heavy OL like Posada and Bryant a year after taking one (ONE! ONNNNNNNNNNEEEEE!) OL, that a center, is malpractice.

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Ace: Brian, is that your rationale behind pinning such a small percentage of the blame on The Process? I agree with you that the failure to recruit more than one OL in the 2010 class created an inevitable time when depth (or at least depth with any experience) would be a major issue. While taking chances with Posada and Bryant looks bad now, however, there are always going to be linemen that don't pan out, big or small (Christian Pace and perhaps Miller being examples of the latter). Even though The Process cost Michigan just one Jake Fisher, I believe one Jake Fisher would make an enormous difference in the quality of this year's line, and therefore it's a major factor in why the offense hasn't functioned well this year; much like Schofield, Fisher started his career at Oregon as a guard before shifting out to tackle.

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Brian: Maybe you're right, but if you regard Jake Fisher as the recruit who may or may not work out instead of the obviously very good player he is, then that's just a small part of the larger issue. You are probably right that I underestimated the impact since it's not just Fisher they're missing but a reasonable Fisher replacement they would have acquired if Hoke had more time.

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Seth: So since this was kinda close to that argument you had last week I thought I'd put the question to Space Coyote as well. His answers:

(UPDATE 1:30 PM: Due to a bad sort I had the wrong data before. New chart now.)

Check the comments in a few minutes for his reasons. I guess that puts the disagreement in context: he argues Borges shouldn't be expected to be able to do very much with these guys because the positional coaches are failing; the argument is over how you divide up what is, at most, a third of the problem.

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BiSB: Putting that much blame on The Process assumes Michigan would have done materially better with an extra month, but I'm not sure if I see it. They landed three offensive linemen, they just happened to land on a guy who can't stay healthy (Bryant), a guy who probably didn't want to play football (Posada), and a guy who still needs two eat two or three more sandwiches (Miller). They also landed two quality-looking TE's: Chris Barnett and Frank Clark (hence the General Bloodymindedness of the Universe). Maybe they land Jake Fisher if Hoke had been hired after the Ohio State Blerg, but Fisher didn't even commit to Oregon until February, so I sort of doubt it. Besides, assuming one quality guard would make a significant difference in the lineup ignores the lessons we should have learned from the Kyle Kalis Is Neo With A Mean Streak episode.

*Hugs Christ Bryant* It's not your fault. [Upchurch]

There seems to be a split on the Dithering in 2013. For my part, I look at where the team was in the first few weeks versus where they are now, and you never see this kind of regression without serious injuries (and Michigan has been fairly healthy). Notre Dame isn't great, but they have a competent run defense, and Fitz was able to rush for 3.2 YPC with that god-forsaken stretch. They brought a flawed but functional offense into September. They're dragged the lifeless corpse of an offense into Kinnick. Michigan put up 41 against Notre Dame. They put up 6, 13, and 9 points in the first 60 minutes of their last three games, two of which were against very bad defenses.

I don't know if the "spend two years gearing toward power, then go to the stretch, then go to tackle over, then go back to iso and inside zone" thing messed with skill development or messed with players' heads or what. But either Michigan's scheme is so simple even a Nebraska can solve it (which would be a Fusion Cuisine problem) or the coaches tinkered and broke the thing (which would be a dithering problem). Add in the eight different starters on interior line, and yeah.

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Mathlete: One point of clarification for me, my large RichRod percentage is because of his massive failure at recruiting linemen. Beyond the obvious no o-linemen is bad, I think the continuity gap is a major untold side effect.

If I didn't have to guess, I'd gladly confess to anything I might've tried, if I was with her too long.

A typical team will have 3-5 guys per class, providing a chance for those guys to bond and a big group of guys within a class that they can learn from and assimilate quickly with. When you essentially have a two year gap, that continuity is gone and that's pretty uncharted territory for an o-line. The opportunities for mentorship, learning from guys similar in age, all of those team building things that are some times overstated, but are by most accounts highly critical for the offensive line are totally missing. That flow of players, leadership and training within teammates is absent. Right now, Michigan is in the process of rebuilding but that lead class are redshirt freshmen.

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Seth: I probably am being too nice to Rich Rod—sorry Section 1 and His Dudeness, you can have the back-pats back. But I think we're very wrong to look at it and say "if they only had Jake Fisher," or whatever. I keep going back to linemen like stability and things outside of RR's control caused Michigan to not have that. Anyway, had he brought in a couple of low 3-stars for his system who's to say they wouldn't have transferred anyway once Hoke arrived with MANBALL? Actually, scratch that: Burzynski is tiny and they were all about playing him. Anyway if Rodriguez had taken a moment away from FREE SAFETY PANIC to grab some OL fliers in 2010, we're probably talking about how spread dudes suck at MANBALL right now instead of how freshmen suck at it.