Preview: UConn 2013

Other stuff here:Ace FFFF! Also stay tuned for our Marawatch-sponsored liveblog at 7:30 tomorrow.

Essentials

"paul pasqualoni young". Yup. That's real. If you don't believe me you're spending an awful lot of time disbelieving things it would be patently silly for anyone to make up.

Run Offense vs UConn

UConn. The very name sends trembles down your spine. After Randy Edsall ascended to Heaven on a pillar of righteousness, the Huskies hired legendary Michigan-killer Paul Pasqualoni, and since they have written their name in blood and glory across the night sky.

In their opening game the Towson Somethings struggled to acquired 201 yards on the ground on 50 carries, a 4.0 average. Starting tailback Terrance West ground out 156 yards on 36 carries as the Huskies bayed and called around him, mocking, ever mocking. The Conn Army's second game was ever more dominating: Maryland acquired a pathetic 231 yards on 40 carries; the Terrapins feared exposing just one tailback to the ruthless fangs and split their carries between CJ Brown (QB, 1991-2013, 16 carries for 122 yards) and Brandon Ross (RB, 1992-2013, 18 carries for 95 yards).

…

I have to break from the faux terror here because UConn's defense was in fact shockingly good a year ago. Do you remember that they held Teddy Bridgewater to 10 points in regulation and 20 overall in a triple-overtime win over Louisville last year? You probably do not, because who remembers things about random Big East games featuring 5-7 UConn? Bridgewater took 53 attempts to acquire 331 yards but threw two interceptions and got sacked five times. The Louisville ground game acquired 57 yards, quarterbacks excluded. For the year, UConn was seventh nationally in rush defense, second only to Alabama in yards per rush ceded.

Unfortunately for the Huskies, Trevardo Williams and Sio Moore* are off to the NFL, as are corners Dwayne Gratz and Blidi Wreh-Wilson. All of those guys were off the board by the early fourth round. Losing four mid-round NFL draft picks in one go is a body blow for a team with UConn's talent level, and they're currently reeling. Maryland bombed them for 500 yards and FCS Towson almost cracked 400.

Without much penetration or experience on the outside save for Yawid Smallwood, the lone returner from last year's all-NFL linebacking corps (Smallwood is projected as a third round pick like his buddies), Michigan should have opportunities similar to the ones they did against Akron as soon as they figured out what the Zips were doing with their bear fronts. UConn will stem into some three-four looks, but Michigan's seen that already. This has to be a step forward for the line and Toussaint or it's time to stop pushing the panic button and resign ourselves to another zombie apocalypse of TFLs.

Ace thought the interior of the line was solid against the Terps, so this will provide a human-sized challenge for the offensive line after two weeks of baby seals and one featuring two top-end NFL prospects. Move some guys, get some holes, see Toussaint follow them, and spark an ember of hope.

*[Sio is a nickname for… wait for it… "Snorsio." Wow.]

Key Matchup: Fitzgerald Toussaint versus Poor Damn Toussaint Syndrome. Follow your fullback, man. What's the worst that could happen?

…

Other than that.

…

Please come out from under the table.

[Hit THE JUMP for lots of caps letters in the cheap thrills section.]

Pass Offense vs UConn

looks familiar

This has actually been worse than the run defense—a lot worse. Ace noted that UConn left their safeties in a two-deep shell for the whole Maryland game in an effort to not give up big plays. This did not so much work, as Maryland's QB hit 10 YPA despite completing just over half his passes. Five different Maryland receivers had catches of more than 20 yards and—sigh—Stephon Diggs averaged 22 on five catches. Towson hit 9.6 YPA itself, with three receivers going over 20 yards. If Gardner's not Bad Gardner he should rip these guys open.

UConn sounds like a lower-rent version of what Michigan's been doing this year, playing a lot of soft zones and combining that with zero pass rush. Ace:

The pass rush was pretty much non-existent. In fact, it was non-existent: UConn didn't record a sack and weren't credited with a single QB hurry on Maryland's 28 pass attempts. They haven't sacked the quarterback once this season. Again, their other game was against Towson.

The loss of Williams (11.5 sacks last year) and Moore (8) is brutal here, as an excellent pass rush was a major part of last year's success. Also, two third-round NFL cornerbacks.

With UConn patently not trusting the replacements at either of these spots and laying back, this will be a day for underneath stuff to Funchess, Butt, and Dileo. Gallon will of course be targeted plenty. With Michigan projected to keep Gardner clean all day this will be about Gardner seeing the right coverages and hitting his guys in rhythm. He should be able to do that easily.

Key Matchup: Devin Gardner versus NO DEVIN STOP DEVIN OH MY OH oh. Oh. Oh man.

Run Defense vs UConn

Towson's uniform numbers are all fancylike

Surprise! Michigan is playing another shotgun passing spread. That's four for four this nonconference schedule. Unlike Notre Dame, though, where shotgun passing seems like a choice, here the Huskies offense seems to be throwing it because that's their only option. UConn… is not good at running. I give up on the faux terror. There can be no faux terror in the face of these numbers.

Even if you cut out QB Chandler Whitmer's  eight carries for –36 yards, UConn did not get over the three yards per carry hump against the Terps, coming in at 2.8 yards a pop. Primary back Lyle McCombs did somewhat better against Towson, acquiring 4.5 yards a pop on 17 attempts—that's still just 76 for the game. Last year the Huskies finished 117th in rushing, averaging 2.5 yards a carry.

I know we're trying to bow down to little brothers after last weekend, but… yeah. UConn is going to run their tailback 15-20 times, not block it very well, get one carry for 20-30 yards, and try to convert second or third and long quite a bit.

With Michigan presumably in a nickel package most of the day, the most interesting thing to watch will be how the defensive tackles hold up to double teams. They'll be available with Michigan laying back (probably), UConn likes inside zone, and Michigan's seen their line creased too often to be comfortable. This will be the final audition before Big Ten play for Wormley, Glasgow, Henry, and Godin. Will one guy emerge into a starter-type player?

Key Matchup: D'awwww I just said it. Black and Rotating Three Tech Buddy against inside zone double teams.

Pass Defense vs UConn

hey man don't blame me blame GIS

Whitmer is a pocket passer all the way. He got two on-purpose carries against Maryland that went six yards; he threw 46 times. Shift scrambles and sacks to where they belong and UConn called 52 passes against 27 runs. Expect another 50-throw performance from an opposing quarterback. Sorry, nose tackles. Maybe against Minnesota.

The throwing things about will give Michigan some opportunities to acquire turnovers. Whitmer is like Michigan's pick-happy QBs of recent vintage… but slow! Ace tackled Whitmer's performance against the Terps in some detail in FFFF:

Whitmer has a terrible habit of making late throws to the outside, which is how he tossed one of his interceptions, and a couple more of those could've been picks as well. He makes poor decisions under pressure, which is especially troublesome since the offensive line is allowing five(!) sacks per game, 121st in the country. This has caused him to develop a bad case of happy feet; he took a safety when he sensed that his right tackle was going to get beat off the edge, ran back into the end zone—allowing the DE to lose the RT easily—and threw an obvious intentional grounding. The snap originated at the 9-yard line. He was under center. This is... not good.

On the plus side, Whitmer showed solid downfield accuracy when given time in the pocket, especially attacking zone defenses. Most of UConn's passing game is short stuff, however, because it's hard to trust Whitmer not to make horrible decisions when throwing downfield as his protection breaks down, which happens often.

As a sophomore last year he completed 58% for 7.4 a pop with 9 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in just 208 attempts. For perspective, he throws picks at double the rate Tommy Rees does. He's got three in his first three games this year. Yes, Devin Gardner regards that as amateur hour, visiting Spartan fans. Thanks for reminding us.

That offensive line is another issue for the Huskies, as it both forces a lot of throws and lets people through at an alarming rate. This is the last stand for The Right To Rush Four. If Michigan can't get through these guys, it's time to have a candlelight vigil for Jake Ryan's knee and put Da'Shawn Hand in a time machine. 

UConn's WRs are of the large leaping variety; returning starter Geremy Davis led the team with a respectable 44 catches for 613; he's a 6'3" guy Draft Insider calls a "terrific possession receiver" who gives you little in the way of speed or quickness. He's their top NFL prospect outside of Smallwood. Junior Shakim Phillips busted a 75-yard touchdown against Maryland and with 15 catches after just two games he's on pace to have a thousand-yard season. He was an Army All-American who had big offers but chose Boston College and washed out there. He could be emerging into that talent level late.

That's about it as far as targets go. Phillips and Davis have 25 of 35 catches that have not gone to tailbacks for short gains.

Key Matchup: Clark/Ojemudia/Black vs For The Love Of God Please Get Some Non-Stunt, Non-Blitz Pass Rush. Please.

Special Teams

Last week:

This will be of no consequence. If Michigan punts, hopefully they do not shank it and actually cover it. Maybe Dennis Norfleet breaks one, if he catches the damn ball.

This week:

EPIC IMPORTANCE. IF YOU DO NOT SPEND THE NEXT 24 HOURS PINING FOR PUNTS OF AT LEAST 40 YARDS ALL PUNTS WILL GO BACKWARDS AND ALL FIELD GOALS WILL BE FLUNG INTO YOUR GRANDMA'S EYE. KICKOFFS WILL EXPLODE DIRECTLY INTO YOUR HEART AND YOUR LAST LIVING THOUGHT WILL BE "I DESERVED THIS."

Key Matchup: CATCH THE DAMN BALL KICK THE DAMN BALL STRAIGHT YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS OR STILL ON THE FIELD AFTER 20 YARDS

(Appendix: UConn kicker Chad Christen is reliable inside of 40 yards, where he's 15/17 in his career, but he was just 2/7 outside of 40 last year. Think Gibbons except with shorter range. Meanwhile, Cole Wagner's got a pretty miserable 37.5 average. Only one of his fifteen punts has been returned at all, though, and that for four yards.

UConn hasn't done anything in the return game this year, but with Michigan's punting and coverage that might not matter. Overall advantage Michigan as long as Wile is putting the ball in the field of play.)

Intangibles

this cat stars in a boring video of it watching UConn basketball

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Devin Gardner fumbles, strips a UConn player on the tackle, recovers the ball, and throws a pick six on the first play.
• Fitz Toussaint keeps playing like a guy who needs his tires aligned.
• Whitmer has time to build a sandcastle in the pocket.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Michigan finishes the game with more points than the opponent.
• Zone drops are executed.
• I really think the more points is important.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for WHAT THE SHIT WAS THAT, +1 for OH GOD IT BURNS, +1 for I REMEMBER IT ALL, +1 for EVEN THE PARTS THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN, +1 for ESPECIALLY THE PARTS THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN)

Desperate need to win level:100 (Baseline 5; +500 for WHEN WE LOST THE HORROR MY FUTURE WIFE SHOWED ME MAGNOLIA AND I QUIT JUST BEFORE THE FROGS AND WENT TO BED SURE THAT THERE WAS NOTHING IN THE WORLD AT ALL, –405 for I MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERREACTING)

Loss will cause me to... sigh expansively over a glass of expensive cognac because my God did I expect this. Did I expect this. 

Win will cause me to... collapse in a heaving mass of nerves and praise any available deity for sparing me.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Michigan is not as bad as they showed last week, and if Devin Gardner can keep his turnovers down to one there won't be enough resistance on UConn's part to keep Michigan out of the endzone much.

On defense there will be some irritating drives as UConn smallballs its way downfield, like every opponent has this year. That's the nature of the passing spread: it's pretty good between the 20s even if you're physically overmatched. UConn will move the ball erratically, putting together a couple of good drives that score and a couple more that peter out.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• No turnovers from Gardner! Because Michigan just runs the ball. Run run run run run.
• Toussaint does crack 100 yards and follows his fullback more often. Michigan's offensive line looks like it Gets It.
• Michigan gets three sacks.
• Michigan, 35-10.