Upon Further Review 2013: Defense vs Akron

FORMATION NOTES: Nothing weird. This one has pinched DTs, but they only did this once. This was in the first quarter, so you can see the three linebackers on the field:

In the second half they ditched a linebacker in favor of nickel packages (and probably tipped a stunt):

This is what I mean when I say pistol diamond: four guys in the backfield, hanging out and stuff.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Secondary was almost entirely Wilson/Gordon/Taylor/Countess with the nickelback usually Jourdan Lewis and occasionally Delonte Hollowell. I don't think I saw Stribling except on special teams.

At LB, it was the usual Bolden/Ross/Morgan rotation. Bolden had some issues and late it was just Ross/Morgan. SAM mostly didn't exist, but Beyer got the vast majority of those snaps if you include the nickel DE looks.

On the line, much rotation.Clark and Ojemudia rotated with a little bit of Charlton. Black was almost omnipresent. Wormley, Godin, and Heitzman all got significant amounts of playing time; Glasgow was marginalized in this game to make way for Willie Henry. The nose tackles played a bit but they were largely lifted in the nickel.

[After THE JUMP: it's fine, it's fine, it's fine… erp.]

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While I agree with you, eventually one has to start talking in English. This was a weird, weird game. To context up: Michigan's defense yielded 14 points, with seven coming on the pick-six and three more after a shanked punt and three-and out. However, Akron also missed a 45-yard field goal (a 55-yarder at the end of the half was set up by a Gardner interception) and drove to the one yard-line two separate times without getting points. On the first, Jarrod Wilson picked a ball off in the endzone; on the second, Akron tried a pitch sweep that got nailed for a loss and then Mattison sent the house on the last play of the game. They did get the stops.

The drive-by-drive is everything going according to plan until the bridge goes out and the school bus teeters over the crevasse, waiting for someone to breathe wrong:

1. One first down and out.
2. Two first downs and out.
3. Three and out, FG from field position.
4. Three and out.
5. 33 yard drive ended by interception.
6. 47-yard drive ends with missed field goal.
7. Three and out at the end of the half. (Despite being the end of the half this was important: with 29 seconds left Akron just needed a first down to get a reasonable FG attempt off. They got zero yards.)

That's the first half. Everything is on pace. In six drives plus an end of half situation, Akron acquires 120 yards and gets two reasonable field goal attempts off. That is what Akron-Michigan is supposed to look like.

And then…

1. 8 play, 75-yard touchdown drive.
2. Three and out.
3. One first down and out.
4. 5 play, 59-yard drive snuffed out by Wilson INT.
5. 11 play, 67-yard touchdown drive.
6. 11 play, 71-yard drive ends at Michigan's four yard line.

What. The. Balls. Four of six Akron drives reach the Michigan one-yard line.

WHAT THE BALLS ACK

Well, if you see here this—

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chart. Usual charting context disclaimer: Defensive linemen are supposed to be about +4 to have an average performance. Historically, linebackers over zero have gotten a thumbs up but these days expectations are creeping upwards, and due to the fact that I can't see the secondary most of the time unless the QB thinks the guy they're covering is open, anything over zero is good for DBs. Also there was a large volume of plays in this one: 79, so amplitudes will naturally be larger.

Sanity-checking what might seem like an excessively positive point of view: Akron threw for 6.3 YPA and 3.6 yards per rush and scored 14 points. They had 13 drives, which is a lot.

While Michigan did give up scads of yards in the second half, they got big plays to keep Akron out, and the Zip QB made a couple of pretty throws to pick up big chunks. UFR tends to give out candy for shortish runs and quick tackles on short passes, and there were a ton in here. Also: coverage metric should override some of the good bits from the secondary and ILBs.

These pressure numbers do not reflect my personal reality.

Yes, because they are just a rough estimate of is Michigan getting towards the QB. It's time to get some more detail in here. I'm going to change the pressure metric next week in an attempt to find success rates of blitzes, false blitzes, stunts, and straight up rushing. The current number is part Mattison, part DL, and I'm going to try to separate those two factors.

Y U NO LIKE FRANK CLARK

It's time to photoshop a bowling ball on Frank Clark's head, but in a sad way. On two critical plays in the fourth quarter the Akron QB escaped into acres of space to Clark's side of the field, and on both he knocked over his fellow defenders. The first one was a holistic cluster, as it appears Michigan stunted both DEs and both of those saw Michigan players bash into each other and fall down:

If Bo Pelini saw Nebraska do this… actually, this would constitute an improvement. But if Bo Pelini saw LSU do this, twirls of smoke would come out of his ears and he would swear colorful imps into existence.

I'm not sure Heitzman is going to contain a whole lot better since he doesn't seem to be going outside too much, but once Clark's botched attempt to come behind him trips him he's done. That's a negative.

Then Michigan somehow managed to top that on second and sixteen on the final drive. You remember this play as the one that flipped you from "this isn't happening" to "THIS ISN'T HAPPENING" just before it became very clear that it was happening:

This time not two but three Michigan defensive linemen end up eating turf. I can't be totally sure but my experience strongly suggests that when you see both DTs shoot so hard to the left Michigan wanted to loop Clark around them both. Clark thought it was the usual stunt and runs up the back of both DTs, causing a pile of useless meat to plop into existence. (Also it looks like Black is ripped down to the ground without a call.) That continues a pattern we've had to deal with since Clark was a freshman. The lightbulb has not gone on.

Clark's just part of a larger problem, but part of that problem is the weakside end the world hyped up this year can't get a pass rush unless he's not blocked, so Michigan is fussing around with line stunts on almost every play. Three games in, Clark has zero sacks on 130 opponent attempts, and on maybe one or two of those has he gotten a hurry on something other than a free run. It's just not happening.

Must… find… something… to hold on to… SPOCK. Willie Henry was good?

Yeah, he was. He ate up a big chunk of the second-three-tech time that was so ineffectual against Notre Dame and did well. Here's a stretch on which he gets under the guard trying to block him and gets about five yards in the backfield:

Henry flashed into the backfield on an unsuccessful third-and-short stand, showing impressive burst for a guy that big, and when they folded both tackles inside he flashed the ability to keep linebackers clean like Will Campbell did last year:

By contrast on one of the relatively few snaps Glasgow got, he was turned and put on his knees by a momentary double:

(That snap was the biggest WHERE MY NOSE TACKLES AT of the game. Second and one and your interior linemen are Wormley and Glasgow.)

He even got some pass rush; he should have drawn a holding call on the Countess interception after beating a guard, straight up and everything, no funny business.

I guess Henry must be one of those guys who's not consistently executing his assignments, because there's no question who Michigan's most physically talented three-tech is.

Coverage holes downfield. So many coverage holes downfield.

Bolden caught a lot of heat after the game, and deservedly, but he was far from alone The Big Ten Network caveat applies here—BTN almost never shows useful replays—so I don't want to get too strident, but I don't get this coverage at all:

Michigan drops Clark as they send Ross. Everyone appears to be in man coverage. So why are both cornerbacks giving outside leverage to the WR like that? That's unbelievably easy on both sides of the ball and Thomas Gordon is 25 yards off the ball by the time the catch is made. Is Morgan supposed to be in a robber while Clark checks the RB? Or… like… what?

It's really frustrating to watch Akron play press cover on Michigan's receivers and do it well while Michigan is sitting in the parking lot giving up a lot of room, especially when Michigan gets Ross in untouched.

Similarly, this is way, way too easy:

These kinds of breakdowns were almost nonexistent against Notre Dame, which earned almost every yard they got by playing well and hitting the small windows provided. That, like Gardner' performance, was too good to sustain; hopefully this isn't more representative.

But they ran past us! They are Akron! We are not to be Akron unless we are to die!

The long outside completions were also a problem. Not the first one, as Lewis gave Akron's QB about a six-inch window, which he hit:

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It's not perfect coverage—ideally Lewis forces the fade route closer to the sideline—but that's a one in a hundred throw from the QB.

The other incidents were not so good. Taylor got beat by a couple yards on his, and the WR barely put a move on. Looked like Taylor was looking in the backfield and thus late to react to the WR going vertical on him. Taylor picked up a pass interference call on the same route earlier in the game. Lewis seemed beat on an earlier one, too, before displaying impressive recovery speed to track the WR down. His recovery speed allowed him to obviously interfere with the receiver before the ball arrived, is all. Akron threw it over the top to the outside five times, got two long completions, a pass interference flag, and should have had another. When Avery's back I hope they put him at corner.

I thought the linebackers were going to be playmakers?

Michigan's started out by playing three extreme passing spreads, and they've spent most of that time playing passive bend-but-don't break defense. A lot of the time there are two 280-pound three-techs playing the DT spots. That's a perfect recipe for invisible linebackers, because most of the time they're dropping into coverage and when they're not they're often eating defensive linemen because the DL isn't holding up.

I do think we're seeing a bit of resurgence in that issue I mentioned last year when Michigan slanted the line and their linebackers did not seem to understand what that meant for where the play would go. Michigan blitzed Beyer on their first snap and slanted away from that; Beyer did get upfield but both linebackers got bashed inside as frontside gaps are obliterated:

I think this is actually Akron's backside H-back iso they ran a lot—good adjustment from the H-back—and is thus designed to hit quick away from zone action; it still bugs me that both linebackers should know that Michigan is slanting away from the strength of the line and they are going to be needed away from that slant.

That doesn't take away from the fact that these guys are not getting free runs to the ballcarrier, so when they make a play it's a tough one:

And Beyer's a linebacker, too. Beyer's my guy now. He is the guy who strung out the Akron sweep at the end of the game, getting outside and upfield of the TE to force it back to an unblocked Morgan. He is plausible in coverage and is the best rusher of any defensive lineman.

Heroes?

Brennen Beyer is consistently making plays; also it is easy to see Michigan getting smoked from the one late if a guy who is not really responsible is out there. Ross quietly did well for himself. Wilson did not seem involved in any long completions and bailed Michigan out hardcore with his interception.

Maybe not so heroic?

Think about 60 Akron yards are on Bolden's pass coverage. Taylor really struggled. Clark messed up late stunts badly.

What does it mean for UConn and the future?

I personally guarantee that Beyer remains a starter when Jake Ryan reclaims his job. Brennen Beyer is the best WDE/SAM type guy they have now by a large margin and there's no way he's going back to the bench when Ryan returns. Corollary: Frank Clark is only marginally better than he was last year.

Willie Henry should be the second three-tech. At least until such point as this performance evaporates in a sea of missed assignments. He has an impressive combination of size and explosiveness. Time to find out what we have there.

Matt Godin announced himself in the SDE competition, if we ever see an actual Big Ten offense again. Godin had one really terrible play on which he gave up the corner on a draw in the dime package; other than that he was quite good. He hasn't been run at like Wormley yet, so his flaws may not be as apparent. Like Henry, he's earned a chance to continue showing it on the field.

Zone drops need work. I didn't understand a lot of what was going on in the secondary. This may be me being dumb, but I think it's also the goings-on back there not making sense.

Jibreel Black is a pretty good interior rusher. Needs some help.

When Courtney Avery returns he should probably be a corner. The rotating nickel guy is not a good sign, Wilson has been good so far, and Michigan could really use a smart veteran like Avery to help paper over some of the Kovacs awareness gap.

Michigan should start whittling down their defensive line rotation. Two guys at a spot plus some spot snaps for other guys to get breathers/keep them interested. If we ever see nose tackles again that one's obvious. I vote Heitzman/Godin at SDE, Black/Henry at 3T, and Ojemudia/Clark at WDE until Beyer pushes one of those guys further down.

It's going to be okay. There were some disturbing moments, sure. They will figure it out.

Except the pass rush, organic division. Jake Ryan, please hurry.