Behold! I have destroyed Heiko and taken hold of the Opponent Watch. My plan is almost complete. For those new to the internet, every week we’ll take a look at the happenings amongst Michigan’s past and upcoming opponents. This week provides us very little evidence, simply because we still have way more variables than equations. What we can glean thus far though is, once again, BIG TENNNNNN. So let’s take a look.
About Last Saturday:
Yup.
The Road Ahead:
Notre Dame Fig Things (1-0)
Last game: Notre Dame 28, Temple 6 (W)
Recap: I didn’t watch this game, because I only watch the most rival-y of rivals. However, I know we have a bunch of MSU and Purdue readers, so we’ll cover the game anyway. Notre Dame won comfortably over a meh Temple team who finished 4-7 in the Big East last year. Tommy Rees (16/23, 346 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had a statistically solid game, hitting home run balls to TJ Jones and TE Troy Niklas. Notre Dame fans seem generally unenthusiastic about their linebacking corp through one game, but Notre Dame fans being famously reasonable people, I’m sure they’ll give their defense time to develop. From what I saw, their defensive line remains gigantic and immovable. And I might be the only one, but I love seeing a perfectly-round 340-pound defensive tackle wearing the number one. He looks like a walking power symbol.
Brian and company will preview this game in detail. For now, Rudy was offside.
This team is as frightening as: Tommy Rees. They might completely implode into a pile of ruined expectations. He might become Joe Montana for an evening. He might knee a cop in the stomach. You just don’t know. Fear level = 7.5
Michigan should worry about: Tommy Rees. No, for srs. He’s senior with a bunch of starts, and who has had a decent amount of success against Michigan. He’s the only college quarterback with experience under the lights at Michigan Stadium. He threw for 315 yards in 2011. He threw for 346 yards last week.
Michigan can sleep soundly about:
When they play Michigan: ALL OF THE LIGHTS
Next game: vs. #17 Michigan
[AFTER THE JUMP: You will feel much better about Michigan’s prospects this season for reasons that have nothing to do with Michigan]
Akron (0-1, 0-0 MAC)
Last game: UCF 38, Akron 7 (L)
Recap: Akron is not good at football. This was known, and has been confirmed. They went down 38-0 in the 3rd quarter before UCF called off the dogs. Akron didn’t have a drive longer than 43 yards until late in the 4th quarter, and only put up 250 yards of offense.
This team is as frightening as: A team composed of Michigan State’s offense and Nebraska’s defense. Fear level = 1.5
Michigan should worry about: All things in the world that aren’t Akron football.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Akron football.
When they play Michigan: Shane Morris. So much Shane Morris.
Next game: vs. James Madison (not sure if college or 4th President of the United States. Wouldn’t count either one out)
UConn (0-1, 0-0 AAC)
Last game: Towson 33, UConn 18 (L)
Recap: Pasqualoni gonna Pasqualoni. It’s hard to explain a loss like this, but The UConn Blog tried, and God bless ‘em for it:
And worse yet, Towson dominated UConn in every facet of the game right from the get go. They ran the ball all over UConn, completed short, medium and deep passes whenever they wanted, and they absolutely crushed UConn's offensive line. Chandler Whitmer had some quality throws, but it seemed like every other play he was running for his life the moment he had the ball in his hands.
Even more discouraging is that it looks as if there has been little improvement in any of the areas that sunk the Huskies last year. The offensive line still can't block, the secondary still gives up big plays, the offense still can't convert on 3rd down, and in the midst of a late rally, they still find a way to make a backbreaking mistake that puts the game out of reach.
Towson outgained UConn by more than 100 yards, averaging 4.3 YPC on the ground and 9.6 YPA in the air in the process. UConn’s offensive line was apparently a disaster. It sounds like UConn QB Chandler Whitmer (16/28, 210, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was the lone bright spot, though a "bright spot" along the lines of "my flight has been sitting on the runway for four hours but the flight attendant just gave me a free ginger ale. But now I have to pee because I drank too much ginger ale and the flight attendant won't let me get up."
Speaking of getting up:
H/T @KevinRDuffy
That’s the UConn student section in the 4th quarter of their season opener. Michigan plays here in a couple of weeks. GOOD TIMES.
This team is as frightening as: A cornered sheep. Losing to an FCS team puts your back against the wall and their coach on the hottest of hot seats. So I guess they're at least a LITTLE dangerous. But... no. Dollars to donuts they'll just go quietly into that good night. There are plenty of flawed teams that can either scheme themselves just enough advantages to create a chance to win, or that can at least "get up" a couple of times a year. Paul Pasqualoni continues to throw rock despite UConn's rock being decidedly uninspiring. Fear Level = 2.5
Michigan should worry about: Complacency, I guess?
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan merely adopted complacency. UConn was born in it.
When they play Michigan: Tens of hundreds of people will witness a thoroughly bleh game in which Michigan wins comfortably (though not resoundingly) and UConn doesn't put up too much of a fuss.
Next game: BYE. Sweet, merciful BYE. (Take BYE and the points)
Minnesota (1-0, 0-0 B1G)
Last game: Minnesota 51, UNLV 23 (W)
Recap: The top-line number looks pretty good, so if you’re holding a candle for Minnesota, you might want to skip down to the Penn State section. This was not a solid victory. UNLV outgained the Gophers by about 100 yards, but Minnesota scored on a blocked kick return, a kickoff return, and an interception return to make the score nice and pretty.
Frankly, UNLV just looked like the better team. Minnesota struggled against the run, getting gashed to the tune of 193 yards and 5.7 YPC. Their secondary looked pretty athletic, but they struggled to cover UNLV’s receivers, especially underneath. Quarterback Phillip Nelson looked pretty meh throwing the ball, but was surprisingly adept on the ground. Marquise Gray he ain’t, but he was an effective scrambler when things broke down.
On the plus side, if the worst thing you can say about Minnesota is that they are “opportunistic,” that’s probably a step up from last year (“moribund”), and is leaps and bounds ahead of 2011 (“bleeeeeeerg”).
This team is as frightening as: A Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time. Not very powerful, and if left to its own devices it won’t hurt you, but if you’re not careful you can shoot your eye out. Fear level = 3.5
Michigan should worry about: Ra’Shede Hageman. He blocked the field goal that led to the return touchdown, and looked like a generally disruptive force on a team that needs one.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Pass defense. Nelson seems to have regressed in the offseason, or his surrounding cast isn’t very good, or just plain Minnesota, but yeah. Not good.
When they play Michigan: Minnesota will not score 51 points.
Next game: at New Mexico State
Penn State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)
Last game: Penn State 23, Syracuse 17 (W)
(Joe Hermitt, The Patriot-News)
Recap: Penn State held off Syracuse despite the Orange having two possessions in the last five minutes to take the lead. Penn State was pretty decent through the air, with Christian Hackenberg (22/31, 278, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) having a pretty good outing for a true frosh on the “road” (the game was in East Rutherford, because why the hell not?). Allen Robinson picked up where he left off last year, catching 7 passes for 133 and a TD. The running game, on the other hand, was not good. In fact, at 38 carries for 57 yards (1.5 per carry), I would characterize that as bad. It also contributed to Penn State being 1 of 16 (!!!) on 3rd down. That also leans toward bad.
The defense was statistically stout, giving up only 260 yards, including 1.9 YPC on the ground. It’s a “road” win over a BCS opponent, though, so all things considered this makes Penn State one of the Big Ten’s bright spots for week one.
This team is as frightening as: I have no earthly clue. We may as well call this team the Penn State Nittany Schrodingers. They can be thought of as a team returning a bunch of contributors from an 8-4 team and which brings in a talented recruiting class, and at the same time as a team of shockingly little depth that might implode at any moment. Fear level = 3, 8
Michigan should worry about: Allen Robinson. For my money he’s the best wide receiver in the Big Ten, and Hackenberg seems to be developing a comfort level with him.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: The trenches. Michigan is the exact kind of team Penn State doesn’t want to face: a physical team with solid depth (especially amongst the big uglies).
When they play Michigan: Ulysses S. Grant’s 1864 Overland Campaign. A physical battle of attrition in which one side can deploy reinforcements and one side cannot.
Next game: vs. Eastern Michigan
Indiana (1-0, 0-0 B1G)
Last game: Indiana 73, Indiana State 35 (W)
Recap: Hoosiers: Unleashed. Sure, Indiana State hasn’t been good since Larry Bird was playing quarterback, but 73 points is hard to ignore. There are probably six teams in the Big Ten who couldn’t rack up 632 yards of offense against my high school team (Go Chemics). Indiana hit the 300-yard mark both on the ground and in the air. Nate Sudfeld completed 12 of 17 for 219 and 4 TDs, all in about 40 minutes.
The defense looked far from swarming, but they weren’t 35 points bad; Indiana State scored a couple of fluky touchdowns at the end of the 1st half, and another on their last drive of the game.
This team is as frightening as: 2009 Michigan. The offense is going to score some points, but they’ll be dragging the defense along with them. Fear level = 4
Michigan should worry about: Devin Gardner getting hurt. I know, that isn’t an Indiana-specific concern. But you should be worried about it. A lot.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan hasn’t lost to Indiana since the Soviet Union was a thing.
When they play Michigan: Michigan’s corners better get a good night’s sleep.
Next game: vs. Navy
Michigan State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)
Last game: Michigan State 26, Western Michigan 13 (W)
Don’t do the math, Mark. You will haz a sad. (MLive)
Recap: Oh sweet merciful punt-goblin, where to begin. This was a glass half-full, glass half-shattered-on-the-sidewalk-and-embedded-in-your-feet-and-you’re-bleeding. So I guess let’s start with the bleeding feet thing.
State unveiled its vaunted four-horizontals passing offense, and it was an absolute debacle. They averaged 3.1 yards per pass against Western Michigan. I’ll pause for a moment while you process that.
…
Three point one yards per pass. Against Western Michigan. They threw 37 passes. They gained 116 yards. 116 / 37 = 3.1. I know, because I did the math a couple of times to be sure. Brian mentioned on the podcast that SheriThreetDamnit racked up 4.4 ypa against Utah in the season opener in 2008. They actually managed a 5.1 ypa for the season. They only had one game worse than 3.1 ypa all season, which was the 2.3 ypa suffered during the Fandom Endurance III game against Northwestern. That game took place in an arctic sharkphoon. This game, despite the weather delay, was played in warm and generally tolerable conditions. Three point one ypa was the worst effort in division 1 last week.
As a result, Michigan State simply couldn’t sustain anything. They had one drive of 69 yards, 25 of which were from WMU penalties. Their next longest drive was 32 yards. Their other two scoring drives were 28 yards (in 9 plays) and -1 yards. They punted 11 times. And their new-and-improved offensive line? Woof. And not #SpartanDawgs woof. Buzz’s girlfriend woof. The left side of the offensive line got NO push for most of the game, and the right side was merely pedestrian. They got a little better as the game wore on, but to the tune of an extra yard or two per carry. They didn’t allow much pressure, but that happens when everything is a three-step-drop.
Beyond that, the offense seems to be assembled by someone who has no idea about his personnel or how football works. They were running Riley Bullough on sweeps and Jeremy Langford (who actually looked pretty good) up the middle. Just about every pass was a quick out or a drag route. Even when they completed passes, that was the end of it. There was no YAC. There was only yak. Dave Warner and Jim Bollman are running an offense predicated on stringing completions together, but doing so with personnel who seem utterly incapable of doing so. The following highlights are illustrative:
The defense, on the other hand, was as advertised. As expected, they outscored both offenses, returning both a lateraled pick and a fumble to the house. Once State went up 7-0 (thanks to the defense, obviously), it never felt like Western really had a shot, despite the game being close most of the way. Western had a little success on some slants and underneath stuff to the outside, but only relatively speaking, as the running game (about 1.9 ypc with the sacks removed) was non-existent, the downfield game was unproductive, and the drop-back stuff over the middle was just begging for trouble.
If I’m Pat Narduzzi, I’m asking for a raise right now.
MSU catches a break this week, in that they draw a USF team fresh off a 32-point beatdown at the hands of McNeese State. If Sparty can’t get its offense going against a team that gave up 53 points to the Cowboys… well, honestly, would you be that surprised?
This team is as frightening as: A blunderbuss. Sure, it scatters its munitions everywhere but where it is aimed (mostly sideways), and has a very limited range. And sure it’s been passed up by about 13 generations worth of offensive options. But you know it’s got ONE good shot in it, and everyone knows where that shot is aimed. Fear level = 8.
Michigan should worry about: A field position game. This has the potential to be one of those games in which one team spends an entire half trying to get out of its own end, trading punts between its own 20 and the opponent’s 40. If I’m Michigan, I go full Rod Marinelli and kick off in both halves.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Three. Point. One. Yards. Per. Pass.
When they play Michigan: Dennis Norfleet will have many, many chances to break a punt return.
Next game: vs.South Florida
Nebraska (1-0, 0-0 B1G)
Last game: Nebraska 37, Wyoming 34 (W)
Recap: Elsewhere in “they are who we thought they were,” Nebraska held off Wyoming despite giving up 602 yards. The suck was pretty comprehensive, as they gave up 383 yards in the air (8.7 ypa) and 219 on the ground (7.3 ypc). It’s hard to pinpoint the problem. They just looked... bad. The defensive ends were getting pressure, but they had no concept of containment and the DTs got no push. Wyoming’s QB just stepped away and found the open man time and again. The run defense was gashed repeatedly. The secondary looked okay when they were in the vicinity of Wyoming’s receivers, but this was not often.
Offensively, Nebraska looked pretty explosive, with both Ameer Abdullah and Imani Cross breaking big runs. They put up 375 yards on 63(!) carries. Cross was particularly impressive, showing really good balance and vision and running tough between the tackles. He might not be as slippery or quick-twitch as Abdullah, but he’s more powerful and fills a gap left by Rex Burkhead. Martinez had an efficient day throwing the ball, but we won’t really know about him until the teeth of the Big Ten season rolls around.
Still… 602 yards.
This team is as frightening as: 2010 Michigan. Better than 2009 Michigan (i.e. Indiana) offensively, but just as inept (if not moreso) defensively. They’ll win some games and make a decent bowl, but there are only so many times you can tell your offense, “okay, go score 40 please” and expect it to end well. Fear level = 7
Michigan should worry about: Nebraska’s ground game. They’ve got some serious home-run hitters, and they are probably the first team Michigan will have seen who can say such a thing.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has faredbetter in shootouts in recent years than in grind-it-outs. After one week of football, I feel better about Michigan getting a few key stops than Nebraska turning in a fewa couple any key stopsslowdowns hangings-on-for-dear-life.
When they play Michigan: DevinGardner might run for a billion yards. Where Wyoming’s QB Brett Smith usually stepped out of the pocket to find blitheringly open receivers, he took off a handful of times with pretty decent success. And I like Brett Smith, but Brett Smith is not Devin Gardner.
Next game: vs. Southern Miss
Northwestern (1-0, 0-0 B1G)
Last game: Northwestern 44, California 30 (W)
I also plane Trevor Siemian. So should you. (Greenwich Times/Ben Margot)
Recap: Unstoppable Throw God Trevor Siemian.
What, you need more?
Okay, fine. Northwestern beat a likely middle-of-the-road Cal team 44-30. As you can probably surmise from the score, Trevor Siemian played most of the game, a result of a Kain Colter concussion. Venric Mark was also on the sidelines for most of the game. He was riding an exercise bike, either because he had a lower body injury or because he is a ball of perpetual energy and the bike was hooked up to the stadium lights.
The score is a little misleading, as Northwestern returned two picks for touchdowns. However, they played rather well, especially offensively. They racked up over 500 yards in just 12 real possessions. The problem going forward, as you may have guessed, is injuries. Concussions are a tricky business (obvious statement is obvious, at least in 2013), and having Mark dinged up already does not bode well for long-term survival. But worse yet might be the torn ACL suffered by starting corner Daniel Jones. Northwestern is thin at corner, and with this injury they’re already into the freshmen.
Overall, they looked like the high floor/moderate ceiling team we expected.
This team is as frightening as: I’ll punt on this for the mo… DAMMIT WHY DID 11 SPARTANS JUST ENTER MY HOUSE??? I’m METAPHORICALLY punting, people. Anyways, we’ll know more about this team (and Penn State) after they take on Syracuse this weekend. But for now, I’ll go with my preseason expectations. Fear level = 7
Michigan should worry about: Well, thelinebackers looked pretUNSTOPPABLE THROW GOD TREVOR SIEMIAN OBVIOUSLY.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Unstoppable Throw God Trevor Siemian only plays one position. Also, Northwestern’s secondary. Plus (and I don’t wish this by any means), Northwestern isn’t deep enough to be snakebit and still have great success, and one game in they aren’t the healthiest bunch.
When they play Michigan: Many points will be had.
Next game: vs. Syracuse
Iowa (0-1, 0-0 B1G)
Last game: Northern Illinois 30, Iowa 27 (L)
File Photo
Recap: Oh hell, do I really have to talk about Iowa?
/reads contract
Balls. Iowa played a decent MAC team. They lost to the decent MAC team after a terrible late-game interception by said MAC team. We call this maneuver “September.” They are who we never gave a crap but figured they probably were despite our indifference.
Iowa had a bit of an offensive pulse in the first half, but went stone cold in the second half. Jake Ruddock was eh, and Iowa was actually able to give two running backs (Weisman and Bullock) substantial carries without any limbs asploding. They were eh defensively, giving up yards on carries and yard in the air and whatnot.
This team is as frightening as:
A giant noodle. Fear Level = 4.5
Michigan should worry about: Uh…
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Kirk Ferentz is signed through the year 2074.
When they play Michigan: November, I think?
Next game: vs. Missouri State
Central Ohio Fightin’ THEs (1-0, 0-0 B1G)
Last game: COFT 40, Buffalo 20 (W)
Recap: Ohio State did not cover. They are therefore, according to math, overrated.
This team is as frightening as: A guy with a flashlight in a bar. Fear level = 8.5
Michigan should worry about: Getting punched in a bar.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Football games are not played in bars.
When they play Michigan: We won’t have to worry about the “is this a rivalry” debate.
Next game: vs. San Diego State (who just lost to Eastern Illinois 40-19. Urban Meyer hates baby seals)