This Week's Obsession: Percent Green

UPDATE: NOW WITH 100% MORE BRANDON BROWN ANSWERS

It's that freshman you've all be waiting for. Michigan's new 5-star back was the highlight of this week's padless practice video. There are plenty more exciting carries to come, but just how many this year, and what's the expectation for sharing with the current starter? We try to tackle that. The backfield:

• Brian "Mike Hart except tall and hairy and into emo" Cook
• Seth "Anthony Thomas except more like a high-speed monorail" Fisher
• Ace "Tim Biakabutuka except better against Ohio State" Anbender
• Heiko "Dennis Norfleet except more Norfleet" Yang
• Blue "Brandon Minor in an alternate universe where he was forced to kick his way out of Charlie Weis's stomach" in South Bend
• Math- "Tom Harmon except more perspicacious" –lete , and introducing:
• Brandon "Like Jamie Morris if interviewed the linebackers as he ran by them" Brown

And the question:

Let's all make stupid predictions about running back carries this year. How many are there to go around? How many go to Toussaint, Green, guys down the batting order? Base expectations for YPC? Anybody cracking 1,000 yards this year? How about 10 TDs?

Seth: I believe Toussaint and the coaches that the senior RB who's proven he can torch defenses when given a reasonable amount of blocking will get the majority of carries this season. If I put us on a crappy graph (how do I make non-crappy graphs?) I'd be near the bullish Toussaint extreme and bearish on Green's yardage totals:

Safe Prediction: Brian's YMRMFSPA for Deveon Smith will be Brandon Minor

If the Green prediction in the above sound familiar you've been getting into the Chris Perry's freshman stats again. That year A-Train had a ludicrous 319 carries for 1733 yards and 18 TDs and Perry came on in the second half of the season as Thomas's No. 2 guy. They both got 5.4 YPC behind the best offensive line of my lifetime. No, this line won't be anywhere near that good; at best they're the 2000 line in 1997. That'll mean less to the No. 2 guy who gets the benefit of a softened defense and more trash time.

Regardless I'm going for a yard per carry better than last year thanks in part to more forgiving defenses, and a lot more attempts as QB carries (218 for 1455 yards with sacks removed last year) are halved in the world after Denard. When it's done Toussaint will emerge with a small majority of RB carries as he did last year, and increase his YPC to something under 5 but not that much.

I think Green will get more carries as the year progresses and he's worked into more two-back sets. In fact given the tight ends are still a developing thing, and Green's already 240 with reportedly advanced blocking techniques, and the fullbacks aren't anything special, why not make two-RB sets a regular feature in the Great Borgesian formation extravaganza? I was predicting something like that before Stephen Hopkins decided to transfer [edit: give up football] and it didn't look so bad when it happened. I digress.

Green will severely eat into Rawls's opportunities, and unless they plan to redshirt Deveon Smith, last year's No. 2 back will have a tough battle to repeat half of last year's 57 carries. I'm of the mind that running backs don't change all that much (compared to other positions) over years in the program, and that Rawls won't suddenly develop the vision he didn't have last year. He remains what he is: Kevin Grady 2.0, albeit minus two stars of hype and any whiff of misbehavior. Having seen what we have in him, I'd like to see Smith pass him, since that would say nice things about Smith and set Michigan up nicely for the future.

I expect Justice Hayes will move into that 3rd down back role evacuated by Vincent Smith's graduation, and act as designated recipient of those fun throwback screens Borges loves. Obligatory Drake Johnson is on the roster note goes here. Maybe one of you guys know different but exactly zero hype on him from this spring made it my ears to corroborate the pre-bowl practice murmurs. Until I hear otherwise I'm figuring him for a non-factor.

Brian: Dennis Norfleet 500 carries for 5000 yards.

[After the jump: RB opinions from people like bloggers except more interesting]

BiSB: Well, obviously Norfleet for 5000 yards.  But in the unlikely event that Norfleet gets moved to the slot several months ago, history may be instructive here. In Borges' six years in Auburn and SDSU, his primary back averaged 55% of the carries among the top 4 rushers, while his primary backup averaged about 25% of the carries. This was pretty close to the 2012 split, and almost identical to Seth's predictions.  

I'm with Seth in that Fitz probably wins the starter label over Green, but I tend to think this is more like the 2004 split between Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown (a 53/34 split) than it was the 2010 split between Ronnie Hillman and Guy Behind Ronnie Hillman (a 66/17 split). After all, the kid seems about as college-ready as you'll see, and Borges and Hoke are going to want to take their new Tonka Truck out for a spin and see what he can do. On the other hand, with an inexperienced interior line and QB depth in the "gulp" territory, the ability of running backs to pass-protect will be at a premium, and maybe a true freshman isn't the ideal choice. So I'll go with about the Borges standard split.

While Justice Hayes may win the "third down back" crown, I wonder if Toussaint might take some of those snaps while Green takes some of Toussaint's first and second down snaps. Rawls' carries will take a serious blow, but he'll get a handful of carries because CMU and Akron exist. And based on nothing but a glance at the depth chart, I'll guess that DeVeon Smith redshirts this year. He may not need it, but given the logjam at RB and the lack of a back in the 2014 class (other than Leonard Fournette, of course), the coaches might want to spread the roster numbers a bit.

Hayes doing the Howard, via TTB

Trace amounts of Drake Johnson and Sione Houma may be detected, but will be within healthy levels.

Heiko:

Okay, here's what I think the queue for carries this year looks like:

1. Fitz
2. Green
3. Hayes/Johnson
5. Rawls
6. Shallman/Smith

Shallman and Smith will get redshirted unless Shallman carves out a niche for himself doing some other things. Rawls will get mostly garbage time. Hayes and Johnson will see themselves in games situationally and to spell tired starters.

That leaves us with Fitz and Green, who we've agreed upon are Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy, but fast.

Based on their running styles, I predict a 60-40 split in carries between Fitz and Green. The real difference will be in yards per, and that's where I'm going to disagree with Bryan. Fitz has the advantage because he's faster and shiftier. He'll get 50, 60-yard runs a lot more often than Green, and that'll help his average even if he might only get like 2 yards on ho-hum runs where the line didn't block properly whereas Green might get 3.

In sum: I agree with Seth's dot, but not the scale of the x-axis, I'm kind of excited for this year's line, so I'm going to predict a 1,000 yard season for Fitz.

Ace: With the situation at backup quarterback — that situation being "AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SEND HELP" — I think Seth may even be a little conservative in his estimate of the number of running back carries available; keeping Gardner healthy is going to be priorities one, two, and three, so while I don't expect designed QB runs and options to disappear from the offense (au contraire, they may show more of a variety with DG), I agree more with BiSB's total workload.

Given his seniority, previously shown talent, and the fact that he flat-out said so, Fitz Toussaint will trot out with the starters against Central. The general consensus seems to be that Toussaint is a much better back than he showed last year when his running was hampered by a subpar interior O-line. By that same logic, however, we have to ask: is Toussaint as good as he looked in 2011, when Denard was healthy and drew the full attention of defenses for an entire season? A look at his game log from that season reveals some serious ups and downs — 108 yards on 11 carries against Minnesota was followed up the next week with a paltry 25 yards on 14 carries versus Northwestern, for example. He's very boom-or-bust, and with more viable options on the roster than the previous two years the coaches may want more consistency.

Derrick Green may not be the home-run threat that Toussaint represents, but he also seems more likely to be able to churn out five yards per carry in that Mike Hart, I'm getting these yards no matter what manner. I'll be the one who goes out on a limb — albeit a pretty strong limb — and says that Green will usurp Toussaint before the end of the season; with Toussaint getting the majority of the early carries, I think both guys will end up with similar numbers. Justice Hayes should get some chances on third down, while Thomas Rawls should get mop-up carries over the other two freshmen (Smith and Shallman), both of whom I expect to redshirt unless injury strikes the backfield.

Upchurch

My wild guess at the final numbers:

Mathlete: So does anyone think there is a chance anyone other than Toussaint or Green gets meaningful carries this season? It will be interesting to see what role DeVeon Smith plays in the pursuit. On one hand I would love to see him get a redshirt and save a year but if he can make it a three way race it could get interesting. 

In terms of spectrum, worst case scenario looks like a repeat of last year with the offensive line struggling in the run game and backs not finding good opportunities to open things up. In this scenario I see Borges/Jackson shuffling between Green and Toussaint hoping to get something going. Best case scenario is the interior line plays like their recruiting profiles and not their ages. Running back is the rare position within college football where age is almost completely irrelevant so if Green is the real deal, I could see him earning 50-60% of the carries with Toussaint still getting a quality portion. If Green isn't quite there yet and the OL is rolling, it's probably reversed with Fitz getting over half the carries and Green a run every 2-3 series.

Unless DeVeon Smith was the real star of the 2013 running back class, I see the two feature backs getting about 95% of the meaningful carries. As noted by others, third down back is going to be the big chance for Rawls/Johnson/Hayes/Smith to see the field. Having pass pro down will be the best chance for the second tier to get on the field and give themselves a chance to open some eyes.

He means this guy. (Upchurch)

Brian: I don't see guys other than Fitz or Green getting anything more than a few popcorn carries here or there unless--all together now--one of them emerges as a clearly superior third down back. That's not completely out of the question since Fitz hasn't really been used in that role much, but when in doubt go with the senior who's good in space over the competition. The only guy on the roster who can claim he's a better bet to gain five yards after a two-yard checkdown on third and seven is now at slot receiver. 

Jackson did say he plans to get the running back competition down to three guys rather quickly: Toussaint, one new guy, and one old guy. All assumptions are that Green is the new guy and Smith will get a redshirt even if he's the third-best back because Michigan would like to space the two new guys out. So, then, is old guy going to make a dent?

I don't see anything that Rawls is going to do better than Derrick Green, so he's out of luck. Drake Johnson got a little bit of hype in the spring but given his recruiting profile I'll have to see it to believe it--or at least hear a lot more hype than we have, Braden-level hype. Hayes is probably next on the move-to-slot list, and I wouldn't be shocked to see that happen in camp. So... yeah. The problem for all of these guys is that if there is a true platoon between Toussaint and Green there will be little need to cycle in a third back since presumably both will always be fresh. They'll get scattered carries more for team-building purposes than anything else.

How Michigan's tailbacks do relies a lot more on Kyle Kalis than you know, them.

Brandon:

When I first thought about how this year could go as far as the running backs are concerned I thought about how Borges used Cadillac and Ronnie Brown when he was at Auburn. He put a lot of wear on those two in 2004 with Cadillac and Ronnie carrying the ball 392 times, 239 for Cadillac and 153 for Ronnie.  That comes out to about a 60/40 split. While I don't think he'll use a newly-healed Fitz and a true freshman Derrick Green quite as much, I do see him utilizing both guys quite a bit with a distribution closer to 50/50.  I'm with Ace I guess when I say I think that Green will actually carry it more than Fitz will this year.  I think Fitz will start out as option #1 but Green will take him over before the season is through. I have it like this-ish:

  
I think Shallman and Smith will redshirt. Will be fun to see though!