One of us was just called a sports blogger by an Illinois player. [Bryan Fuller]
-------------------------------
THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: You should stop waiting. I know it’s been on your to-do list for awhile. It’s time to talk to Nick Hopwood, our MGoFinancial Planner from Peak Wealth Management and get your future squared away instead of thinking about it all the time.
Our deal is Nick is the guy I go to for financial strategies, and he gets to ask us Michigan questions on your behalf. Anytime it’s a Nick question, we’ll let you know. Anytime you’ve got a financial question, let Nick know. And when you’re ready to figure out how you’re going to plan your retirement and pay for your kids’ college when you just got done paying for your own, don’t wait to do something about that.
Legal disclosure in tiny font: Calling Nick our official financial planner is not intended as financial advice; Nick is an advertiser who financially supports MGoBlog. MGoBlog is not responsible for any advice or other communication provided to an investor by any financial advisor, and makes no representations or warranties as to the suitability of any particular financial advisor and/or investment for a specific investor.
-------------------------------
Nick’s Question:
If you could wave a magic Maverick Morgan wand over one M baller right now?
If you’re not up on the meme, we mean a player on this team who suddenly explodes like Derrick Walton did last year after Illinois player Maverick Morgan suggested Walton/Michigan was soft. So that this isn’t just a highest ceiling discussion, we’re instituting a Poole Rule: the player can only become the best plausible version of himself this year, e.g. Poole can become freshman Stauskas but not Sauce Castillo.
-------------------------------
The Responses:
David: I will take Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman. Granted, he probably does not have a Walton Leap in him, but if can develop a bit more consistency, perhaps with the ability to finish in the lane/at the rim, that would add another dimension to this offense.
 |
| Could one of you…? [MG Campredon] |
I'm not sure how high his ceiling would be in this regard, but it is most likely the part of the offense that could use the largest increase. Michigan has some shooters—even Z has been able to contribute when left open—and they have a few guys who can exploit some mismatches in Matthews and Wagner, but a consistent lane finisher at the end of the shot clock is a piece that would steady a fluctuating offense. If it could be Rahk in those situations, Michigan would not have to burden other players who have generally performed well in their suited roles.
Ace: (someone should answer Z should I can give my Wagner take without the obvious answer being missed)
Brian: I was going to say Wagner though.
Ace: Okay I’ll take Z
Brian: I mean, you can take Wagner.
Seth: Zagner.
Brian: I just think the Magic Wand version of Z is still a player with 16% usage and always will be.
Ace: Disagree, so you should take Wagner.
Alex: I would take a 50% better Jon Teske if his path to more playing time wasn't blocked by Wagner. Fun fact: he's 5th in steal rate among B1G players who have played at least 20% of available minutes.
[After THE JUMP is it Moe or Mo?]
--------------------------------
Brian: Well fine then. Mo Wagner at his peak is the only guy on this team who can carry an offense by himself. The deep-shooting, pump-fake-and-go demon we saw eviscerate Louisville and Michigan State, if sustained over the course of a half-season, is enough to get Michigan's offense back into the range where their vastly improved D pays off in a top ten team.
But way too often he gets switched onto a point guard and Michigan loses its mind. This is in part on Wagner, who doesn't fight for post position well, and in part the rest of the team being real bad at feeding the post. But at some point Wagner has to take the reins and say "I don't care if you have four seven footers, Rick Pitino, I am going to show you your own liver." He creates his own shots and others besides. He's the only guy on the roster with the same dominant upside Walton had last year.
Ace: Ahem. Moe.
Brian: His name is Moritz.
Ace: It’s his name. Respect the man.
Brian: Okay Enchilada Anbender.
Ace: That doesn’t even make sense, Bry.
(is fired)
Brian: I can come up with a terrible post hoc justification in a minute here.
Alex: Regarding Moe getting switched onto smaller players, it's worth reiterating that this team is really, really bad at feeding the post. Abysmal. I can't tell if it's because the coaches don't want them to do it, because they never practice it, or because it's just unnatural for the guards and wings, but it's undeniably bad. I remember Dakich (the annoying one) remarking on a broadcast once - maybe a few years ago - that Purdue was the best post-entry team in the country. Watch tomorrow for how easily they can feed the big men and Vincent Edwards.
Ace: This is another big reason I think a Z breakout is so important.
Seth: I'm staying out of that argument and taking Charles Matthews because he is 5-star MAAR and there were times this year when we were ready to claim he's Michigan's best player. Lately he's instead been turnover-prone and as frustrating from the big round stripe as the charity one. Also until recently he was Michigan's best option in eff-it time. I think Purdue saw something in how he sets up his isolation drives and that's been copied hence.
A Maverick'd version of this guy is lethal down the lane, remains a good distributor, and oh right you can't leave him open for three either. This offense needs someone you can't guard and stay sound, and Matthews has two months to play himself up the draft board.
Ace: Brian believes the Magic Wand version of Zavier Simpson is a 16% usage player. For reasons even beyond John Beilein’s incredible track record with point guards, I strongly disagree. For evidence, one only needs to look at his current stats, especially compared to last year’s.
Via Bart Torvik, Simpson posted a brutal 82.0 ORating on just 13.2% usage in 18 games against top-50 competition as a freshman. This year, in five such games, he’s put up a stellar 124.4 ORating on 20.1% usage. He had a 15-6-5 stat line against Purdue and a 16-4-5 against MSU with only one turnover over those two games; in each he ended up around 23% usage.
It was easy to forget after Simpson’s timid freshman year and start to his sophomore campaign that he was a _baller_ in high school. High School Simpson dropped 65 points in a game
There are also plenty of recent examples of short point guards who’ve succeeded with high usage against good competition: Kentucky’s Tyler Ulis, Washington’s Isaiah Thomas, SMU’s Nic Moore, Ole Miss’ Chris Warren, Oakland’s Kay Felder (a mid-major player who put up great numbers against high majors). Moore was the only one of those guys you’d characterize as a knockdown shooter; the rest learned how to use their size to their advantage, working their way to the interior and breaking down defenses from within. Simpson can do that.
If Simpson, like in the play above, starts punishing opponents for switches more frequently, that will unlock the true potential of Beilein’s five-out offense. I don’t think Matthews has the handle to be Michigan’s primary creator off the dribble; Simpson, even as more of a distribution-oriented player, can be that guy—in fact, that might be better for the offense, and especially Wagner.
(Shoutout to Torvik for letting you search his player database with height parameters.)
Anyway, I was also tempted to say Wagner, since Michigan’s generally going to go as he goes barring a surprising offensive surge from Teske, who’s bogged down the O against good teams. The other guy that needs to be mentioned is Jordan Poole, whose potential is as high as anyone on the team; if he can cut down on the defensive miscues, he could emerge into the all-around scorer and shot creator that this team could really use.
Like, this was weirdly one of my favorite plays of the year so far.
Seth: At least recently it's seemed like opponents are taking the Spike approach with Z in the lane: let him get to the basket then throw up ALL the wingspans.
Of the guys you mentioned I'm most familiar with Isaiah (not Isiah) Thomas, who became unstoppable when he developed that quasi-travelling dribble move that's impossible to call live against a guy that little. I'd love for Z to copy that.
Ace: The counter to that is court awareness and Simpson’s is beginning to really come through this year. He’s made some difficult passes when he’s had almost no line of sight:
This one rarely makes the highlight reel but it’s a really, really impressive play:
Seth: That Iowa game seems a basketball lifetime ago. I can't believe that was this month.
Ace: Good lord. I knew that was true and still double-checked.
Alex: Anyways, I might pick Duncan Robinson? Sure, he gets shredded by the wrong matchups, and I definitely think Michigan is better off with him in the shooting-off-the-bench role, but the offense would pick up a lot if a dude who can shoot ~45% from three on maybe 8 threes per 40 minutes (which is where he was at in his first season) could, you know, do that. A fully-optimized version could incorporate some of the driving and playmaking he flashed against Rutgers. A lack of spacing has hurt Michigan at times - I mean, they're still a team with great spacing, but relative to other seasons, it might not be as good - and a knockdown shooter would help. That was Duncan Robinson. Hopefully it is Duncan Robinson in February and March.
Per Torvik, he's been at 24% on 33 attempts over 10 games against venue-adjusted Top 100 teams. That's really bad. In 22 games as a sophomore in 2016, he was at just above 40% in games against those teams.
My other candidate is Jaaron Simmons.
Ace: Those are both good ones.
Alex: Basically, I want those two to be as good as they were in the past. Michigan would be a lot better if they were. Simmons averaged 16 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists _last season_ and now it's notable whenever he does something good.
Seth: It hasn't shown on the score sheet but Simmons has looked functional lately.
Alex: "Getting late early" more than fits, given his situation - it is already late early, and maybe already too late - but, I mean, that guy was really, really good. That he worked back from going from a conference POY favorite to the scout team is encouraging - I think he may be the likeliest candidate to actually get the Maverick Morgan Mario power mushroom.
Ace: Another realistic good development that I’m contractually obligated to mention: Isaiah Livers has already made tremendous progress and there are still ways he can obviously improve, most notably in cutting down on turnovers.
Seth: This is a shift in the question some, but can we guess at the functional upside of this team based on our Maverick wands?
Alex: I think it's probably the Sweet 16 again. Not sure they have enough to get much further than that. And even that would already require one pretty big upset.
David: Yeah, it would take the right tournament matchups and shot-making to press farther than that
Ace: Agreed. Too many leaks to plug to expect this team to make a six-game run through the tourney, to say the least, but with the right matchups they can make the second weekend of the tournament again and give somebody a major scare.
Seth: That was my sense too: our wands are mostly fanciful. We're not actually going to see Z turn into Isaiah Thomas, Wagner start muscling dudes, Matthews hit a free throw, etc. The only one of our dreams I actually think is better than 50/50 to happen is Robinson's shooting returns.
Ace: After “Walton is what he is” last year, I can’t rule out Beilein working his magic with anyone. The good and bad news here is there’s plenty to work with in the “in need of a breakout in at least one major area” department.
Alex: Fortunately that bad news isn't THAT bad because this team is definitely a Top 30 team, possibly a Top 20 team, and almost definitely in the tournament barring an implosion of some kind, despite the need for improvements across the board.
Ace: And it’s hard not to see them being significantly better next year. But we already covered that.
Alex:
Brian: It feels like a Beilein team that wins its first round game pretty easily and then scares the dickens out of a high seed. But if they can get to a 6 that high seed isn't going to be super elite. Like everyone else, I'm anticipating next year.
Ace: Closing stat related to Alex’s last statement: Torvik has Michigan at 95% to get a bid this year even after the Nebraska debacle.
Alex: Torvik also has Michigan as a low eight-seed, which means that if they stay the course they'd face a one-seed in the second round. His current one-seeds: Duke, Purdue, Villanova, Virginia. Can't play Purdue... I think they could beat Duke or Nova (more Duke than Nova because of their youth). Would not want to face Virginia, the platonic ideal of Bo Ryan basketball. But I'm getting ahead of myself.