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THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT | #35 Michigan (10-3) vs #337 Jacksonville (5-10) |
|---|---|
| WHERE | Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| WHEN | 6 PM ET, Saturday |
| LINE | Michigan –27 (KenPom) |
| TV | BTN |
Dolphins worldwide are livid at the poor performance of the Jacksonville Dolphins, who do not viciously dunk on people like dolphins frequently do in the wild.
THE US
Michigan is finishing up its three game holiday swing against various groups of Russian WWIII POWs who have never seen a basketball against Jacksonville. Jacksonville, which has really and literally adopted the Dolphin as a mascot, is better than Alabama A&M(!) but worse than Detroit(!) per Kenpom.
As a result this should be a desultory affair immediately forgotten. The main thing Michigan fans will be hoping for is at least some playing time for Moe Wagner, who's missed the last few weeks after twisting his ankle late in the Texas game. It would be nice if he got ten minutes and looked on track to return at full force for the (re-)beginning of conference play on January 2nd.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 0 | Tanner Rubio | So. | 6'0, 170 | 60 | 24 | 82 | Sort of | |||||||||||
| Just A Shooter except he has an inexplicable, post-like TO rate to go along with 31% from 3. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 1 | JD Notae | Fr. | 6'2, 180 | 82 | 25 | 93 | No | |||||||||||
| Shoots almost as well from 3 (36%) as he does from two (37%). Gets a lot more twos up. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 3 | Devin Harris | Sr. | 6'4, 200 | 66 | 24 | 87 | Very | |||||||||||
| Bull in a china shop has top-30 FT rate, astronomical TO rate, and can't shoot. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 14 | Jace Hogan | Jr. | 6'6, 225 | 55 | 28 | 109 | Quite | |||||||||||
| A-Sun Branden Dawson is by far JAX's most effective offensive player but might be out? | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 33 | Cody Helgeland | Sr. | 6'8, 185 | 90 | 14 | 90 | Sort of | |||||||||||
| Stretch 4 is another perimeter oriented player hitting 31%. Does not rebound. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 10 | Corey Romitch | Fr. | 6'4, 205 | 31 | 9 | 82 | Yes | |||||||||||
| Nonexistent on offense. 29% from three and 1/2 from two. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 25 | Jaylin Hinton | Fr. | 6'5, 195 | 46 | 14 | 107 | Very | |||||||||||
| Low usage garbage man hitting 61% from two. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 13 | Radwan Bakkali | Jr. | 6'10, 250 | 30 | 20 | 91 | Very | |||||||||||
| Post can't DREB and hits 46% from two with astronomical TO rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Seriously, they are the Dolphins.
So here's the thing: Jace Hogan, who seems like a 6'6" jumping jack PF sort, has missed the last two games for Jacksonville. I tried to Google "Jace Hogan injury" and got absolutely nothing back. Because this is the kind of team that gets no coverage, almost literally. I have not seen these players. You have not seen these players. The highlight of their Kenpom page is their nonconference schedule, which includes such luminaries as:
- Webber International
- Gardner Webb
- Florida National
- Florida College
- Middle Georgia State, and
- Trinity Baptist.
I made one of those up—sort of.
So we're flying by statistical profiles only. They are grim. Jacksonville has two "just a shooter" types, except with reservations. Sophomore guard Tanner Rubio has just 36 shots inside the arc this year to 74 threes and somehow has a TO rate of 25, which about as bad as you can do without getting pulled even on terrible teams. Senior stretch four Cody Helgeland is also quite turnover prone; he gets out rebounded by everyone on the floor who isn't Rubio. Both guys are hitting 31% from deep and offering virtually nothing else that hits a box score.
Nominal PG Devin Harris (not that Devin Harris) is the exact opposite kind of not-great player: he's a zero from outside the arc (2 for 11), so he puts his head down and tries to clobber his way to the basket many times per game. This results in a solid assist rate, a terrible TO rate, a top-30 FT rate, and 41% shooting inside the arc. A more talented version of him is has been the bright spot/problem for Illinois for the past decade. FWIW, Harris leads his team in DREBs with a 21% rate.
Freshman JD Notae has some respectable numbers—decent rebounding, assists, and turnovers—and is the team's only plus three-point shooter at 36%. The problem is that he's only taken 53 of those to 124 twos... which he makes at 37%. Prepare for some wild chucking.
Hogan, meanwhile, is an all-action performer who's keeping his efficiency up by not turning the ball over and making a decent clip of his twos. He's a thorn on the offensive boards and will probably get some putbacks... if he plays. He is their center, functionally. When not playing center, functionally, he's replaced by Jaylin Hinton, who is basically Hogan except a freshman, and true center type guy Radwan Bakkali.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Jacksonville is horrendous at virtually everything: 333rd on offense, 321st on defense. The only things they do well as a team are prevent open-court turnovers—they don't get the ball blocked or stolen much—and... uh... defend the free throw line.
Everything else is a disaster.
THE KEYS
Get Wagner ten minutes if possible. For reassurance purposes.
See if Austin Davis can stay on the court for more than seven minutes. Although there is a certain comedy value in Davis fouling out in ever-shorter stints on the court, eventually he'll have to retire that bit and move on to something else.
Continue hitting open shots. Duncan Robinson managed to yank his season 3PT% up to 37% against A&M and while there's a bit of a curve against these very bad teams, to some extent shooting is shooting. Getting Robinson and maybe some other guys on track before the Big Ten fires back up is the only real benefit Michigan could draw from this game.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by... yeesh, 27.