Hoops Preview: Texas

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Goodness gracious, Mo Bamba.

THE US

While UCLA put a quality win feather in Michigan's tournament resumé cap, there's still work to be done, especially since the Big Ten, uh, kinda sucks? The B1G is currently projected as a three-bid league by stat guru Bart Torvik—and that's with Maryland as one of the last four teams in the field. Michigan State and Purdue are the only locks.

In such a conference down year, it'd be very nice to add another resumé-boosting victory in non-conference play, and Texas represents M's final chance at doing so. According to Torvik's team forecast tool, a victory tonight would take Michigan from the projected sixth team out of tournament to in the field, albeit as a First Four team. That's a huge jump from one game.

Given the short turnaround (and a flight to Texas) from Saturday's UCLA game, I wouldn't expect to see major changes to the rotation yet. After this game, however, the team has a few tune-ups before conference play, and that's when we could see some major experimentation. I'll have much more on how that could shake out later this week; tonight's game will provide a critical extra data point for guys like Jordan Poole and Isaiah Livers.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Texas is a young, big team featuring future top-five pick Mo Bamba at center. Bamba is pretty representative of this team as a whole: great on defense, still figuring things out offensively. Bamba is already one of very best shot-blockers and rebounders in the country; most of his points come off putbacks or dumpoff passes from a guard—he's not a refined post scorer, which is a relief.

Bamba forms a formidable frontcourt duo with junior Dylan Osetkowski, a true power forward who'll also soak up many of the minutes at center when Bamba's on the bench. While not a rim protector, Osetkowski is a good rebounder and decent post scorer; while he hasn't been remarkably efficient, he's taking on a huge volume of shots, and he's skilled enough that he attempts to shoot threes (those haven't gone so well, however).

We may see the offense run through Osetkowski even more than usual. The reasons are two-fold. For one, Duncan Robinson qualifies as an advantageous matchup for Texas. For two, the Longhorns are without leading scorer Andrew Jones after he fractured his wrist against VCU on Wednesday. Jones is a massive loss. He's a high-volume scorer and the team's only consistent three-point threat, and he's arguably their best perimeter defender too. Using Hoop Lens, I pulled the on/off stats for Jones in Texas's four games against quality competition, and he sure seems important:

A swing from +0.05 PPP to -0.10 PPP is substantial, to say the least, and while sample size caveats apply that's about a full game's worth of data with Jones off the court. If Texas can't overwhelm Michigan on the boards, it's hard to see where they get their points. That said, take another look at Bamba; getting overwhelmed on the boards is a distinct possibility.

The other scoring threat of note is wing Kerwin Roach, who's been Texas's best pick-and-roll ball-handler by some distance. He's a solid passer when driving and a remarkably good finisher at the rim: he's 32-for-41 on two-pointers this season. He's just a 30% career three-point shooter; it's get to the hoop or bust for him.

The other guards don't present major threats. Freshman point guard Matt Coleman is a low-usage distributor who doesn't turn the ball over much but also doesn't really threaten to score—he's making 37% of his twos and 28% of his threes despite being selective with his shots. Junior guard and Michigan native Eric Davis, who I'm guessing will draw into the starting five with Davis out, drilled 38% of his threes as a freshman and since has shot only 26% from beyond the arc. He's mostly Just A Shooter™, so he's not adding a whole lot at the moment.

THE RESUME

Both of UT's losses are quite understandable; each came in overtime in wild games against top-ten teams (Duke and Gonzaga) in the PK80 tourney. They defeated #49 Butler comfortably to open that tourney. The Longhorns are coming off a victory over a common opponent, VCU, by four points on the road; that's about equal to Michigan beating VCU by eight in Maui. Notably, all of this came with Jones in the lineup. We've yet to see what Texas looks like without him.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

The Longhorns boast a suffocating defense centered on Bamba's shot-blocking ability. With him dissuading most attempts to even get into the paint, quality looks are tough to come by. Texas is sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency, 37th in two-point defense, 17th in three-point defense, and 57th in turnover rate.

Even with Jones in the lineup, UT has really struggled to shoot from beyond the arc. They've cobbled together a decent offense by avoiding turnovers, getting plenty of second-chance buckets, and drawing lots of fouls. Oh, and being really efficient on two-pointers, because LOOK AT THAT PICTURE OF BAMBA AGAIN.

THE KEYS

Test Osetkowski's defense. I don't think John Beilein is going to break out a two-big lineup on such a short turnaround, though this would be far from the first time I've been wrong about something. Instead, I think Michigan's best approach is to try to Beilein-ball Texas; hopefully Duncan Robinson can start making his threes, but if those aren't falling, I wouldn't mind seeing Charles Matthews at the four and have the offense try to draw both UT bigs away from the hoop with the ball screen game.

Contain Roach. Without Jones in the lineup, I'm expecting Roach to take over a lot of the ballhandling duties. He's an explosive athlete and great finisher at the rim, and he's also a decent passer in ball screen situations. With a lack of shooting threat on the floor for UT, Michigan should stop the drive first and foremost; Roach's drives have been far more productive than UT's non-Jones outside shooting this season. In general, I wouldn't mind seeing Michigan send lots of help at Roach, Osetkowski, and Bamba; doubling can force turnovers and get M easy transition buckets against a team that's tough to score on in the halfcourt, and it's unlear if UT has the firepower to make M pay for that approach.

If man doesn't work, go zone? Dylan had the same thought in his preview, probably because we're looking at the same numbers: Texas has faced a fair amount of zone this year and hasn't handled it well, with an eFG% of only 44.8. Open three-point looks are the main weakness of a 2-3, and again, Texas is missing its only reliable outside shooter. This could be a real option if Michigan is having trouble stopping Roach off the dribble or they want to more easily send help at the bigs.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Texas by 5.

Remember, I've taken a vow not to tempt the KenPom gods. Michigan is going to have to find a way to hide Duncan Robinson (or Isaiah Livers, who's still finding his way on defense) against a mismatch. I'm worried Michigan can't handle UT's size on the boards. Texas is also coming off a week of rest while the Wolverines played an emotional overtime game on Saturday before hopping on a plane. Jones's injury gives Michigan an edge they didn't expect to have but this will still be a tough game.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Burnt Orange Nation's Jeff Haley with an in-depth look at UT's point guard situation and how they use Roach in the ball screen.