Hoops Preview: UCLA

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: oh darn no photos from last year, too bad

THE US

Michigan sits in a rather precarious spot given they're only a third of the way through the season. Regardless of how you feel about this team's chances to improve, the early loss to a mediocre LSU squad, subsequent loss of a chance to play a third D-I opponent in Maui, and the forthcoming schedule schedule have combined to put Michigan in a tight spot. Everyone shake their fists in the general direction of Jim Delany:

Problem for Big Ten bubble teams is that it's likely the conference will have only two top-30 RPI teams (Purdue, MSU)—so those are the only chances for "Quadrant 1" wins at home. https://t.co/XRwnFe6s7I

— Bart Trvik (@totally_t_bomb) December 8, 2017

Michigan cannot get two "Quadrant 1" wins at home in conference play because they don't play their chief rival, Michigan State, at home this season. Crisler Center ticketholders will, however, be able to watch the Wolverines face off against the Rutgers Cable Subscribers on January 21st.

But I digress. A loss to UCLA would be a significant blow to Michigan's at-large hopes and make Tuesday's game at Texas as close to a must-win as you'll get in mid-December—never ideal with a road trip on short rest. Thankfully, this UCLA squad looks a lot different than the one that boatraced Michigan in the second half at Pauley Pavilion last year.

Meanwhile, this is welcome news:

John Beilein says he's looking to increase minutes for frosh Jordan Poole and Isaiah Livers

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) December 8, 2017

Hopefully that comes with a more solidified role for Eli Brooks, as well.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

UCLA isn't the rim-scorching hellbeasts of yesteryear. Gone are centerpiece Lonzo Ball, lethal stretch four TJ Leaf, two more starters in Isaac Hamilton and Bryce Alford, and talented reserve center Ike Anigbogu, who blocked four Michigan shots in last year's game. In their place has stepped turmoil, for the most part. Three players were arrested on a team trip to China for shoplifting, an incident which somehow ended up involving the President of the United States. One of those players, LiAngelo Ball, left the team to sign with an agent this week as LaVar Ball effectively broke ties with the UCLA program. The program canceled its Wednesday night tune-up for this game because of the wildfires in the Los Angeles area.

Meanwhile, they've managed a half-decent 7-1 start, though their best win came by two points against a plummeting Wisconsin squad.

The Bruins certainly bring plenty of size to the court. Seven-footer Thomas Welsh, a strong rebounder and shot-blocker who's off to an unusually poor start as a post scorer, starts alongside 6'11" rebounder and rim-protector Gyorgy Goloman, who'll also shift over to center in other lineups. If Michigan can't punish UCLA from the outside for playing two true bigs, they're going to have a tough time getting much going on offense.

On the wing, 6'8" five-star freshman Kris Wilkes is still getting accustomed the the increased level of competition. He's a phenomenal athlete who's currently at his best getting his points in transition and off putbacks, outside the confines of the halfcourt offense. He's struggled to hit his jumpers and UCLA doesn't use him as a ballhandler; he fouled out against Wisconsin with four points and two turnovers in 23 minutes.

When UCLA gets into their offense, they run it through Aaron Holiday, a solid all-around scorer and distributor who doesn't blow you away in any one area but does a lot of things well, including defense. He shares the starting backcourt with sophomore Prince Ali, an athletic slasher who's off to a hot start from beyond the arc, one that's likely a fluke given Ali's career 58% mark from the free-throw line and 30% three-point shooting last year. UCLA is happily riding the wave for now; Ali has started the last three games and scored 20+ in two of them.

Ali took the place of freshman Jaylen Hands, who's settled in as an effective combo guard who can step in at the one or the two. Like Ali, Hands is shooting 50% on threes, and he's also been pretty efficient inside the arc; he's a decent passer who commits some freshman errors. Reserve forward Alex Olesinski has been an offensive rebounding machine; he's 16-for-20 on two-pointers this year and 8-for-9 with a couple and-ones on putbacks, per Synergy. The other main rotation piece, freshman forward Chris Smith, has struggled to do much other than hit the occasional two-pointer.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

The most notable difference from last year's UCLA team is not only are the Bruins not shooting above 40% from beyond the arc, they're largely eschewing the three-point shot—only 31.1% of their attempts come from downtown. They're still decent at making those (36.3%), but this is a team that wants to get out and run or, if they're forced into a halfcourt battle, run much of their offense through the post. They're decent in that regard but the overall offensive efficiency is down to 29th after ranking 2nd last season.

As you'd expect given their lineup composition, UCLA has a good two-point defense but struggles to prevent three-point attempts (and makes). Michigan is going to have open jumpers; it'd be quite nice of more of those started falling through the hoop.

THE KEYS

Unleash Poole. Michigan is going to have to hit their outside shots to win this one; UCLA is too big on the interior for anyone other than Moe Wagner and Charles Matthews to threaten much inside the arc. As such, I'm fully on board with Beilein's plan to get Jordan Poole more minutes, hopefully in this very game. Michigan desperately needs to break out of their shooting funk and Poole should play a big part in that. As long as he can hold his own on defense, he should see a lot of minutes in this game. Making it rain from the outside could force UCLA to go smaller than usual, which would help a lot with the next key.

Block out. There's not going to be much respite from UCLA's size and offensive rebounding; even if one of their starters gets into foul trouble, Olesinski has been a beast on the offensive glass. It's going to have to be a team effort; UCLA will have three excellent offensive rebounds (two bigs and Wilkes) on the court at all times. Michigan can't afford to give up many second chances, espcially since those often lead to cheap fouls on the bigs.

Test out two bigs? If the team is struggling to shoot and UCLA is overwhelming them inside, it might be time to break the glass on a Teske-Wagner lineup to match their size. Michigan has finally had the better part of a week of uninterrupted practice to experiment with new tactics, and UCLA isn't the type of killer outside shooting team that would be most likely to exploit either Wagner defending fours or the team settling into a 2-3 zone.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 3.

This game sets up well for Michigan to snap out of their shooting funk. That should be enough to overcome UCLA's size up front, especially if Matthews can neutralize Wilkes as an offensive threat. The Wolverines should be able to force UCLA into a slower, more halfcourt-oriented game than they're used to, and that should play to M's advantage. 

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. The Athletic's Brendan Quinn digs up a remarkable what-if:

“At one time,” Abdul-Jabbar wrote in an e-mail to The Athletic this week. “Michigan had been in serious contention for me to attend.”

Yes, that Abdul-Jabbar. You know, the guy from Airplane.