you can touch a ray if you go to Tampa. woo.
Michigan returns to Tampa for a rematch against South Carolina, as predicted weeks ago by Brett McMurphy. As far as bowl matchups against SEC teams with the same record as you go, South Carolina is an ideal matchup if your preference is to get any sort of win and get to the next season—and this is my preference.
The Gamecocks rank 67th in S&P+ because that ranking system thinks they're a 6-6 team that's been fortunate. Tale of the tape:
| MICHIGAN | thing | SOCAR |
|---|---|---|
| OFFENSE | ||
| 31st | SD RUN RATE | 94th |
| 8th | RUSH O | 67th |
| 10th | LINE YARDS | 54th |
| 76th | PASS O | 48th |
| 118th | SACKS ALLOWED | 71st |
| 24th | PASSING DOWNS | 102nd |
| 72nd | OVERALL | 88th |
| DEFENSE | ||
| 43rd | SD RUN RATE | 105th |
| 8th | RUSH D | 25th |
| 2nd | LINE YARDS | 41st |
| 2nd | PASS D | 56th |
| 2nd | SACKS | 72nd |
| 3rd | PASSING DOWNS | 31st |
| 10th | OVERALL | 46th |
The Gamecocks' offense is a passing-oriented dunk and dunk outfit; their defense is okay but only that. They've played two games against defenses in Michigan's vicinity; they scored ten points against both Georgia and Clemson, failing to crack 300 yards in either game.
S&P+ favors Michigan by about nine. So naturally Vegas favors a team that lost to Kentucky by ten? By more than a touchdown?
South Carolina opened as an 8 1/2-point favorite over Michigan in the Outback Bowl https://t.co/TkM1xdNyDr
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) December 3, 2017
That might be a data entry error. It is exceptionally rare for systems like S&P+ to differ by that much from the Vegas line. It's either that or Vegas pricing in O'Korn, but if Brandon Peters's health is that much of a swing and unknown why would they even have it on the board? I don't know. A dollar says typo.
Anyway. Good matchup Michigan should win.
UPDATE: score one for typo.
@chengelis no Vegas line or consensus offshore line yet, but 5Dimes has MI -9 over South Carolina. I was thinking it should be around -7, so waiting to see what CG or Westgate opens at.
— Johnny Detroit (@Johnny_Detroit) December 3, 2017