Hoops Preview: Indiana

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: TRADITION IS TRADITION [Bryan Fuller]

THE STAKES

You may have forgotten that Jim Delany, in his infinite wisdom, moved the Big Ten Tournament up a week so it could be played in New York City, the geographic center of the conference. This explains why Michigan is playing two conference games in early December, beginning with Saturday afternoon's tilt against Indiana.

Both teams are coming off losses to Carolina powers and could use a pick-me-up, especially one that counts towards the conference win tally.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Despite the photo gracing the top of this post, Indiana has a new man in charge: Archie Miller, whose Dayton squads that were consistently excellent on defense. His first Hoosier squad is, uh, not that; they're 4-3, 217th in adjusted defense, and already have suffered blowout losses to Seton Hall (alright) and Indiana State (woof). This is looking like a reset year.

That said, IU still boasts plenty of talent, and they nearly went wire-to-wire with Duke on Wednesday before a very late flurry by the Blue Devils got the final margin to ten.

The matchup of the game is at center, where Moe Wagner will do battle with talented IU sophomore De'Ron Davis. This could be one of those duels in which neither can stop the other; Davis is the type of burly, hyper-efficient post scorer (76% on twos) that often gives Wagner trouble, while Wagner's diverse game should give the foul-prone Davis problems on the other end. The outcome could easily come down to which of these two can stay on the floor the longest.

Another matchup of great import is power forward Juwan Morgan against either Duncan Robinson or Charles Matthews. Morgan is an athletic putback machine who draws a lot of fouls; keeping him off the offensive boards is going to be one of M's top priorities.

The rest of the lineup isn't as intimidating as in years past. Wing Robert Johnson is an efficient inside-outside scorer with plenty of apparent talent, but he's yet to take on a star-level load. (He'll still be a tough cover for, say, Robinson or MAAR.) Senior Josh Newkirk is a point guard by default; he's mostly out there for his outside shooting and defense, and he struggles to avoid turnovers as a distributor. Freshman guard Aljami Durham is an efficient offensive player in a small role; he's been a very strong defender so far.

When Davis needs a breather or gets into foul trouble, Freddie McSwain provides a lot of energy and really good rebounding and shot-blocking numbers for a 6'6" big man. He doesn't provide Davis's offensive punch, however, even though he uses a high volume of possessions—turnovers and free throw shooting are significant negatives. Stretch forward Collin Hartman, a career 40% three-point shooter, is just getting back into the mix after missing all of last year with a torn ACL. Sophomore combo guard Devonte Green is a decent outside shooter who's struggled inside the arc.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

This looks like a lot of recent IU/Michigan matchups. Both teams boast strong offenses; Michigan is less turnover-prone while IU has better rebounders. Neither team has a particularly formidable defense, though the Hoosiers are especially bad in that regard this year.

Both teams have suffered from terrible three-point numbers: both are making about a third of their three-point attempts while allowing makes at a 41% clip on the other end. Michigan appears to be suffering from far worse thluck*, however; while M has an enormous gap of attempts on their opponents, IU actually takes fewer three-pointers than their foes.

Unlike the relatively high-paced UNC affair, this should be a relative slog; both teams play at a low tempo.

[*three-point luck, if you're not a podcast listener]

THE KEYS

Win the post fight. I expect both De'Ron Davis and Moe Wagner to score with great efficiency and struggle with foul trouble. If either can avoid the latter, that may make the difference all on its own. If that doesn't happen, the better player between Freddie McSwain and Jon Teske could be the decider; Teske has a size and skill advantage, McSwain has experience and athleticism on his side. Meanwhile, somebody—probably Charles Matthews—is going to have to keep Juwan Morgan off the boards, where he excels at getting garbage buckets.

Get Robinson going. Michigan might be able to hide Robinson on defense against low-usage freshman Aljimi Durham. Defense hasn't been his only problem, however; against athletic teams, he's had a tough time getting open so his shot can make up for his defensive shortcomings. Robinson has to find a way to get those shots; it was clear in the UNC game that while Isaiah Livers is talented, he's not ready to get big minutes in these games without making the same type of mistakes that are getting Robinson on the bench in the first place.

Settle on a rotation. John Beilein hasn't had nearly as much time as usual before Big Ten season to settle on a group of eight or nine rotation player. He deployed an 11-man rotation against UNC even before blowout time and Michigan suffered for it. I'd like to see Brooks/Simpson at point guard until Jaaron Simmons shows something more against even a bad opponent; I'd also like to see Jordan Poole soak up Ibi Watson's minutes. Less lineup tinkering should hopefully lead to fewer defensive lapses.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 8.

This is a get-right game for Michigan on offense, and Wagner is poised to go off if he can stay on the floor. He and Teske should do enough to get the win with some help from an above-average outside shooting game against IU's poor perimeter defense.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Inside The Hall preview.