Upon Further Review 2017: Offense vs Minnesota

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FORMATION NOTES. Another jumbo day for the offense. I charted just seven snaps with 3 WRs, all of them passing downs. The closest thing to a 3-wide snap on a run down was second and twelve. Standard down offense was split about evenly between 2 WR snaps (20) and jumbo formations (18 1 WR snaps, 6 0 WR snaps, only two of which were short yardage).

MEAT

If you're keeping score that means that Michigan has all but discarded the two major changes in the offense—inside zone focus and a bunch of NFL-style empty formations—to go full Harbaugh.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES. QB was Peters, obviously. OL was the usual except for Ruiz replacing Onwenu, and Runyan replacing Ruiz after Ruiz nearly got Peters killed on that one play. Ulizio got in for the last drive I charted, FWIW. Spanellis continued in his role as a sixth OL, getting maybe a dozen snaps.

RB was all Higdon and Evans with Isaac and Walker out; Samuels only got the Malzone drive at the end. Gentry and McKeon continued getting the large bulk of the TE snaps; Wheatley was out. Bunting did get 10-ish snaps. WR was mostly DPJ and Collins in single WR sets, with Schoenle and McDoom coming in for the rare 3-WR sets. Perry and Crawford were out.

[After THE JUMP: many yards; few plays.]

More like Goldy the Roadkill amirite

That's not alliterative. Also just because he is roadkill doesn't mean he's not a gopher. You don't go to a funeral and say "this person is now named in the manner of their demise."

okay but srs roadkill

Yes, srs roadkill. Let's get that big beautiful chart in here:

Second consecutive 80%+ week, and 80% seems close to the theoretical ceiling for any game not against Delaware State. The blocking percentage metric has historically ranged from 50% to 80%; Michigan is scraping the ceiling. Against jabronis, yes.

But the mental mistakes have all but fallen out of the offense—at least on the ground. Minnesota had a couple plays where they shot a DE inside on the snap and got two Michigan players to block him, but that was more of an RPS thing that an error on the part of either blocker, and Michigan adjusted. Other than that there might have been one or two missed assignments for the game.

Michigan has focused on a thing and gotten it down, and now opponents will react to it. A flailing Maryland maybe not so much, but Michigan will have to have a bunch of RPS stuff in their pocket for Wisconsin and Ohio State. At least they have the ability to force the defense to overreact to something now.

How was our first extended look at Cesar Ruiz?

Mostly positive. Ruiz occasionally showed his youth, most notably on the sack he gave up.

While that is Very Bad at least he's keeping his head on a swivel for stunts? Just needs to check real quick presnap to see if JBB has a guy or not.

He also came out too wide on the first long Higdon run, as he doesn't expect Minnesota to get so thoroughly caved. He eventually realizes what he's supposed to do and moves to do it, just in time for the LB to dive at his feet and Higdon to plow into him from behind:

#51 RG pulling

An older version of Ruiz probably takes a path a bit further inside and doesn't have to change direction so suddenly.

When not doing this he was whoopin' up on people. His kickout blocks were usually huge. Here he pulls to a DE and that guy reacts like he's a defensive back trying to hold up:

#51 RG pulling

I usually give relevant kickouts a half point because they're often a mutual agreement between offense and defense that the ball will go in a gap. Something that big is a full point because on certain runs that extra room is going to be worth yards. Not so much in this game, because everything was going further inside. But sometimes. Ruiz was consistently moving whoever he impacted.

This was more relevant on the Evans bounce play. He gets surprised as the guy he's pulling to is trying to dive inside him instead of accepting a kickout; his ability to stall and then drive that guy saves Evans a critical yard or two on his bend to the outside and helps give him the corner:

#51 RG pulling

Poor damn safety #8.

And while we're talking about OL introducing themselves, Stephen Spanellis has been effective as a sixth OL. He pancaked the relevant DE on Higdon's five-yard TD:

#97 TE to top of screen

He got up to +4 in this game on limited snaps; he's the first effective bonus OL Michigan has deployed under Harbaugh. He's just a redshirt freshman and likely has the mental side of the game down if he's bombing press conferences with six dollar words. I don't know how Michigan's OL is going to shake out next year but Spanellis is in the conversation. He was a large slow guard-only sort when he arrived but he's reshaped himself considerably since then and might be a possibility at tackle; also you have to think Michigan will take a swing at having Bredeson play tackle.

Even if Spanellis doesn't emerge into a starter next year he'll contribute; Michigan is on the verge of having good guard depth. (Tackle? Uh.)

I like watching running backs doing the running part, it turns out.

Yes. They've come a long way themselves, almost as far as the OL. Earlier in the year I complained about "zero cut" running that left no question about where you were headed, and requested a cut. Michigan's backs have started doing this very well on power plays.  The most whizbang example was on the long Higdon touchdown, which happened in part because Higdon's path convinced #8 that he needed to be farther outside:

(Other bits: counter action holding WLB and other safety; JBB and Ruiz mauling a DL.) Higdon had less spectacular results on better and more subtle cuts. This is a much narrower gap that he commits to late; once again that safety is in the wrong gap:

And this is Higdon cutting away from the intended gap when something opens up further inside.

These are decisive shallow cuts that allow Higdon to maintain speed and exploit thin gaps in the defense. The big missed cuts from early in the year are gone. He'll occasionally miss a crack or do something somewhat suboptimal, but the caverns power plays carve out aren't a surprise; he's benefited from the power focus as much or more than the OL.

Then when he hits the second level he's been an excellent combo of yards after contact and explosiveness. Evans's long speed featured prominently in his recruiting profile and is not a surprise. Higdon's is. Most of the scouting reports in his recruiting profile go out of their way to mention that he's not a home run hitter, doesn't provide a big play element, lacks long speed, etc. Since "runs fast in the open field" is probably the easiest thing in the world to judge, I accepted those takes and compared him to Mike Hart.

Higdon's not Mike Hart. He's not a missed tackle genius who gets caught from behind. Higdon's run away from a lot of dudes the last few weeks, and nobody gains on him. Most guys are doing well to keep even with him. On his first long run he darted outside a Minnesota cornerback and even when both guys were fully turned and going flat out that guy couldn't make up even a step.

And if Higdon surprises by going the distance when given an opportunity, here's Chris Evans blowing through a linebacker tackle.

Like Higdon, Evans made a bunch of almost entirely good decisions, whether it was bouncing it when the edge was there or making a slashing cut upfield on a pin and pull. He is electric in the open field:

Michigan's various problems on offense obscured this; Minnesota provided a reminder. Evans is a weapon, hopefully one that will be revisited next year when throwing the ball is less of an issue.

The other stuff... tip of my tongue... throwing? Throwball? Good bad?

Brandon Peters got an incomplete, more or less. Only eight throws made it in the DSR, plus three others that I didn't count for various reasons.

BRANDON PETERS

Peters could do nothing about the three sacks he took. His other negative events were a turfed pass in the flat to Hill—that was directly after he'd taken two huge sacks, FWIW—and a pass too far upfield of McDoom late. He also had a marginal throw to DPJ on a comeback that was open and catchable; another MA was issued on the throw just wide of Schoenle on second and 23 where JBB's guy got into him and affected his motion. YMMV on that one:

I thought that was almost a really good throw in a tight window under duress and didn't want to issue the IN. (I did not chart the odd third and twelve play that looked like an attempted mesh screen that McDoom was disrupted on.)

When doing good things they were pretty open good things, like Michigan's opening play.

And the McDoom crossing route that got called back. This is a second read here:

Earlier in that drive Peters had another waggle play where he clearly checked all three options before accepting a checkdown to the flat guy for four yards. The rest of it was "let's have our guy win a route against a bad corner."

So there wasn't much good but neither was there much bad. I would have liked to seen Peters taken out for more of a spin in the second half, but when consecutive Michigan drives end with sacks because of comically bad pass protection it's tough to continue doing that instead of mashing face.

What was with the Kugler cut block penalty?

I have no idea. If that's a call, the refs missed a bunch of identical plays. Kugler penalty:

#57 C

Near identical:

#57 C

That continued happening on every pin and pull, without a call. The "10 and 2" thing intended to prevent clips and the like is stupid since it relies on the body position of the defender, and that can change between your decision to cut and arrival. Also as demonstrated there's no consistency on this call.

Any fun scheme stuff?

Michigan was largely content to pave Minnesota with the same power plays after they got out to a lead, but the first drive had a couple of new wrinkles. There was the above-embedded crossing route to McDoom on a fake crack sweep that erased the whole linebacker level, and after that got called back Michigan hid McKeon on a tackle over play for an easy six on a throwback screen:

This is a good time to remind people that redzone offense is not a thing. After starting the year with just one touchdown in 10 tries, Michigan has 13 TDs in their last 17 trips. Did they go from the worst offense in the world to elite? No. They went from bad to okay-ish. Is redzone offense a small sample size phenomenon that counts first and ten from the 20 the same as someone getting tackled at the one yard line? Yes.

One other play of note: Michigan had this screen set up for a million yards.

Alas.

Receivers?

This week's receiving chart is the most unremarkable yet.

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

ROUTES: DPJ +, McDoom -

There is nothing to say about that, except maybe DPJ should be able to dig that ball out that he did not dig out.

Heroes?

Virtually the whole blocking outfit again, with special emphasis on Bredeson, Cole, and Ruiz—except Ruiz gave up that sack. Both running backs made the most of their blocking.

Maybe not so heroic?

Pass protection.

What does it mean for Maryland and the future?

Please be 80% as good as this. This will be Michigan's best ground output of the season. I accept this. If I keep saying this maybe by the time Michigan gets to Ohio State they will average 25 yards a carry.

They're probably 80% as good as this. Michigan will be tested physically by Wisconsin and Ohio State; mental errors have become rare as Michigan focuses on one thing. And I've got growing confidence that Michigan will be able to cope physically against just about anyone. Main concern going forward is whether the passing game can back anyone off enough to make the improved blocking count against the big boys.

Goodbye, zone. One play that was not gap-blocked.

Ruiz is already a mauler. There was little difference between him and Onwenu. The big obvious bad thing was big, obvious, and bad, but aside from that he ejected people. Excellent sign for Ruiz's presumed ascension to the starting C job next year.

Michigan has a lot of guards. In addition to Ruiz, Runyan and Spanellis also played well. Ben Bredeson's entrenched at left guard but I wonder if they give him a test drive at tackle this spring just in case he's clearly the top option there; the dropoff on the interior will probably be minimal even though he's playing very well right now.

Tight end blocking has greatly improved. McKeon, Gentry, and Bunting all did work this week.

That's a positive increment for Peters. A small one, to be sure, but issues in the passing game were mostly not his fault.