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Jaaron Simmons is expected to take over Derrick Walton's role. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
Nick's Question: Basketball media day is today, which gives us an excuse to talk about something besides football. Let's do that.
Which Basketball Player Are You Most Interested To See As The Season Starts?
Ace: You might expect me to say Charles Matthews, and the Kentucky transfer’s development since his freshman year is certainly of paramount importance to the success of this team. That said, I’m going with Ohio grad transfer Jaaron Simmons, who’ll be tasked with replacing the majority of Derrick Walton’s possessions as the team’s lead guard.
The key to last year’s offense was the high screen tandem of Walton and Moe Wagner, who found a way to beat opponents no matter how they tried to defend it. According to Synergy, Walton graded out in the 86th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball handler in 149 possessions; the only returning Wolverine to use 50 such possessions last season was Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, who graded out in the 31st percentile. Zavier Simpson showed good passing ability on limited possessions but his lack of an outside shooting threat is going to seriously limit him — opponents are going to sag off and dare him to shoot until he proves he can make them pay.
Given an enormous workload on a team with limited talent, Simmons played with surprising efficiency last year, reaching the 65th percentile as a P&R ball handler in 228 possessions, the 18th-most in the country. (Others in the top 25: Jawun Evans, Melo Trimble, Tai Webster, Bryan McIntosh, Corey Webster, Nate Mason.) He ranked in the 70th percentile in offense derived from pick-and-roll situations even though he played with substandard (47th percentile) roll men; Wagner graded out in the 90th percentile.
Simmons is very capable as both a scorer and passer, and Michigan’s surrounding talent should allow him to play with greater efficiency than he did as a heavy-usage player on a mid-major squad. (Ohio’s #2 option last year was MSU castoff Kenny Kaminski.) While Matthews is the key to Michigan’s defensive success, Simmons is the newcomer who’s best equipped to keep Beilein’s offense scoring up to its lofty standard.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundtable.]
Charles Matthews, Ultimate X-Factor [Campredon]
David: Low-Hanging Fruit says: Charles Matthews #SorryNotSorry
I am legit excited to see him play. Michigan has brought in their fair share of shooters...or even developed their fair share of shooters. They also have gotten a couple of exciting point guards who have complemented the ability to find open guys with a strong side of Rack Attack. Those are both highly desirable player profiles, and I will never get tired of Michigan bringing them to Ann Arbor.
Charles Matthews is a different kind of recruit though. He is of the 'Crazy Athlete-Slasher' ilk. This is generally the type of dude that has eluded John Beilein in his Michigan tenure. Not anymore? THJ was mostly a shooter -until late in his Wolverine career; GR3, while a versatile athlete, was also a shooter and offensive rebound freelancer, similar to The Matrix. I loved Caris, but we never saw his uninjured potential for very long. Charles Matthews looks to be the lengthy wing who can beat his man off of the bounce and get into the lane. While it's ideal for a point guard to be able to do that, having a 6'5" athletic wing allows for different lineups and points of attack. Also, I'm always going to take a bouncy 6'5" athlete finishing at the rim over Michigan's recent run of sub-6'0" point guards.
While Simmons and Wagner are also extremely vital to Michigan's success this season, Matthews takes this team's potential ceiling to a high level. If he's close to the athlete that has been touted, Michigan's perimeter defense will also take a giant step forward. Hitting big with Matthews could improve a plethora of areas for this team...and he still has three years of eligibility left.
Ace: I think you hit on the big thing at the end. Matthews’s athleticism and strength on defense is going to be really significant with Duncan Robinson locked into a starting spot. Depending on the night, Matthews might have to guard a speedy perimeter slasher or a burly traditional power forward if Robinson’s defense doesn’t take a big step forward from last year. If he can hide Robinson’s defense enough to make Robinson’s offense well worth his time on the floor, that’ll really help the team’s shooting even if Matthews isn’t a pinpoint shooter himself.
Seth: I think both of those are the big X factors, and you can throw the guard formerly known as X into that pile as well. But c'mon guys: another year of progression for Moe Wagner in an offense built around his abilities: yeah! Like, how often do we get another year out of a guy on the edge of a draft decision? Burke. Um...
Kenpom's #22 returning player in the country is young for his class, remember, so there's maybe more upside to explore in the brawny categories. He's already one of the most terrifying stretch fives in the country. Into the NCAA tournament he was still surprising us with his ability to undress some dudes when he puts the ball on the floor, and contributing defensively with opportune steals (he'll never be an average defender). But mostly Mo Weezy is going to be the focal point of an offense that gets a ton of space because of him. After a decade of Beilein we're finally going to get to see a Pittsnogle offense in Ann Arbor. I can't wait.
Alex: Simmons and Matthews would be my top two, in that order. If Beilein hadn't found a top-notch mid-major point guard on the grad transfer market, I'd be very worried about the position - fortunately he was able to find a stopgap replacement for Derrick Walton to give the young point guards room to develop. As for Matthews, it seems like there could be a wide range of possible outcomes: he could be just a guy (though a very athletic guy) or he could be an NBA player.
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| Austin Davis could provide much-needed big man skills off the bench [Campredon] |
Since those two were already discussed, I'll pick another newcomer: Austin Davis. He was a whodat recruiting pickup from a small high school and spent the last year remolding his body, as most big men tend to need to do. Michigan was poor at the five when Moe was out (and if DJ didn't slide over); Donnal wasn't brought back for a fifth year and minutes backing up Moe will go to either Jon Teske or Davis. Teske was quite lost on the offensive end last season - something that Beilein is loathe to tolerate - and even though he has potential as a rim protector, he still has a long ways to go. Davis is nearly a complete unknown, but supposedly he's good at catching and finishing from ball-screen action (making the Ricky Doyle comparisons inaccurate) and if he can hold up defensively, he could provide some solid minutes if Moe is in foul trouble or needs a breather.
Brian: I've been weirdly optimistic about Austin Davis for a while now, based on almost nothing. There is this all-time Beilein quote:
"In the middle of January, it all started slowing down," Beilein said. "Guys just throw him the ball and he puts it in. There's no drama, there's no Kardashians. The ball is in. The ball goes in."
Also this from DJ Wilson:
"He finishes everything around the basket – everything he catches from, like, 12 feet in. He has great hands," Wilson said. "At the other end, he somehow always gets his hands on the ball, whether it's tipping balls or blocking shots."
Now we get to see if those quotes have any basis in reality. Davis isn't going to be Wagner on offense, but if he's a plus rebounder, good defender, and able to consistently finish at the rim when given opportunities he's a big upgrade as Wagner's backup. If he's an average rebounder and average defender he's still an upgrade. Everyone dismissed Davis as a recruit but even if he's not a super athlete he's got great footwork and the requisite burliness to compete. I'm looking forward to see what he does.
In a similar vein, maybe Jon Teske will look less like an unfinished golem this year? Big men develop slowly and if Teske can put together anything on offense his potential as a rim protector entices.
Ace: While I get the sense Davis is going to be the backup, I’ll be watching Teske very closely. His potential as a shot-blocker and rebounder is undeniable, plus he’s shown the capability (in practice settings, not games yet) to step out and hit midrange jumpers. He still needs to figure out where he’s supposed to be on a given set, but if he can add a major defensive presence without killing the team’s spacing on the other end, he could be a very valuable rotation piece.