I… I think it’s time to talk about the SEC.
It’s not that good. It’s a shell of its former self.
Sure, it’s strong at the top, same as it ever was. Alabama is still a ruthless, inexorable death machine – churning whichever poor fools are unlucky enough to be in the path of its maw into mulch. This week, they vaporized Ole Miss: 66-3 may not erase the memories of their two losses to the Rebels in recent years, but that Bama gave them a worse whoopin’ than what they’d give an FCS sacrifice suggests they wanted some measure of payback. Does this Death Star have a problematic exhaust port? Maybe. Will any of their regular season opponents be able to find it? Almost definitely not.
Georgia is all alone in that second tier, and with an authoritative 41-0 beatdown of Tennessee in Knoxville, the Dawgs are clearly the best team in the East and should be able to take the division to set up a matchup with Bama in the SEC Title game. Quarterback Jake Fromm pulled a Wally Pipp on Jacob Eason and UGA has been content to play it very safe in the passing game: he threw it just 15 times for 84 yards – and ran for two surprising touchdowns. The Georgia running game was excellent as usual, churning out almost three hundred yards between a cast of talented backs. The offense is functional, if unspectacular, as Smart is content to have his defense win games.
What they did to Tennessee was remarkable – from the first play, an interception by Tyrique McGhee that set up a short field for a field goal, the Bulldog defense was dominant. Some of that surely is due to the general derpiness of the Tennessee offense, which has become even worse post-DeBord, but that alone can’t explain how they got shut out at home with a few talented skill position players. The Vols had seven first downs on the game, had four turnovers, 3.5 yards per pass attempt, 2.1 yards per carry, and zero points. The Bulldog defense was amazing against Mississippi State the week before, and should be similarly excellent against the rest of their regular season schedule.
Alabama is Alabama, Georgia is quickly becoming a store-brand Alabama knockoff, and most of the rest of the league is thoroughly mediocre at best. Who’s the third-best team? It’s probably Auburn: the Tigers acquitted themselves well in a road loss to a likely playoff team in Clemson and revved up the offense on Saturday against a team with a pulse, winning 49-10 against Mississippi State (the Bulldogs are now 1-2 in blowouts over the last three weeks).
[I try to back up my #hot #take after the JUMP]
Beyond that though:
- Florida might be the next-best team in the league, despite juggling between quarterbacks, pulling wins against Tennessee and Kentucky out of their ass, and just generally being plagued by the post-Meyer ennui that killed the Muschamp era and has made the McElwain era an interminable slog despite the modest success.
- Butch Jones is a dead man walking after losing a six-touchdown shutout at home to a rival – Tennessee had been frustrating underachievers in the minds of their fans in the couple of seasons proceeding this one, but this weekend’s loss to Georgia was a disaster the likes of which can’t really be recovered from. Jones’s buyout is immense – and it still would be a shock to see him last in Knoxville past this season.
- The have-nots in the East aren’t any good either. Kentucky almost upset Florida for the first time in three decades – and then beat Eastern Michigan by just four points. Vanderbilt started 3-0 and may be decent, but Alabama and Florida provided reality checks in the last two weeks. South Carolina is at least somewhat interesting – though they blew a fourth quarter lead at Texas A&M on Saturday. Missouri is a dumpster fire.
- The West – outside of Bama, and to a much lesser degree, Auburn – is a shell of its former self. The odds that Ole Miss survives the Freeze fallout remotely intact as a program are pretty much nil. Kevin Sumlin’s tenure started out with incredible promise and has fizzled out into disappointment after disappointment; they’ve gone 4-1 after the spectacular implosion against UCLA in the opener, but his job security is tenuous at best. The Bret Bielema experience at Arkansas has been disappointing all the way down. The shine has come off Mississippi State, as they followed up a breakthrough beatdown of LSU with two losses and an aggregate scoreline of 90-13.
- Speaking of LSU: what has been and should be one of the premier programs in the SEC hit a nadir on Saturday. They not only lost to Troy (a Sun Belt team), but trailed the Trojans 17-0 in the third quarter and needed a frenzied comeback to make the score even look respectable. The Tigers turned the ball over four times, panicked and briefly put in a freshman quarterback, didn’t convert a single third down all game, and gave up almost five yards per carry to a Group of Five squad. Les Miles had established a given level of success and provided more than a fair amount of frustration; Ed Orgeron seems to have all the frustration and none of the success. Firing him would cost LSU a ton of money (on the heels of Miles’s massive buyout) so it may not happen – it seems likely that they’ll slide into irrelevance as long as he’s in charge.
For years, the SEC was held up as the gold standard for college football – and it was. Beyond the string of consecutive national championships, it was the consistently depth of the league that made it so strong. The Alabama dynasty remains, Georgia is very good, Auburn could realistically fall anywhere from “okay” to “very good” (we don’t know yet), and that’s it. Florida has fallen off considerably, LSU has fallen off even more, Tennessee is still wandering in the wilderness (and just took a brutal loss on the chin), and there are no upstarts to be found anywhere this season. Consider Bama’s SEC schedule prior to the Iron Bowl: @ Vandy, Ole Miss, @ A&M, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, and @ Mississippi State. Not great.
Washington State 30, USC 27
This weekend’s best #Pac12AfterDark game came on a Friday night contest that ended after 2:30 Eastern Time; it was a treat for anyone who managed to stay up that late, as Washington State edged USC in a close battle of undefeated teams in Pullman to enter the picture as a darkhorse playoff contender. USC had struggled somewhat throughout the early part of the season – having trouble with Western Michigan, barely beating a not-very-good Texas team at home – but with Sam Darnold, a well-hyped NFL prospect, at the helm, the Trojans were receiving plenty of respect from the college football intelligentsia. The Trojans are still the favorites to win the Pac-12 South (the Arizona schools are bad, UCLA has no defense, Colorado is off to an 0-2 start in league play, Utah travels to Los Angeles to face USC), but their playoff hopes took a big hit with the loss.
Darnold didn’t play well against Wazzu: he threw a pick (his eighth! of the season), had just 5.7 yards per pass attempt, and even though he scored two rushing touchdowns on zone read keepers, it was a mediocre night overall for the highly-touted quarterback (fortunately for USC, tailback Ronald Jones returned from injury to pick up the slack). Darnold was outplayed by his counterpart Luke Falk, who threw for 340 yards on 51 attempts, had two touchdowns on catch-and-run plays, and had an interception of his own. Falk continued his ascent up the Pac-12 career leaderboards, setting the record for completions in a career on Friday. The interception he threw in the second quarter was extremely unfortunate: defensive end Uchenna Nwosu broke off his pass rush, batted the ball in the air, it ricocheted off an offensive lineman’s face mask, and fell into his hands inside the Wazzu five-yard line. At the time, USC was up four and could have made it a two-score game, but the Cougar defense held up and forced a field goal. A long Washington State touchdown drive at the end of the half made it 17-17 heading into halftime.
The third quarter was uneventful, as each team notched a field goal and traded punts for most of the period on several three-and-out possessions. Washington State got the ball to start the fourth and converted two third downs in their own territory with medium distance before facing a fourth-and-two at the Trojan 34. Falk completed a pass to Kyle Sweet to get the first down, and followed that up with a shovel pass to Jamal Morrow for the go-ahead touchdown. USC responded with an impressive drive of their own – one that was extended by an impressive throw from Darnold to a well-covered Tyler Vaughns on fourth-and-thirteen – and capped it with Darnold’s second rushing touchdown of the night to tie the game with five minutes remaining. Morrow popped a long run to get into field goal range and Wazzu hit a field goal with less than two minutes left to produce the game’s decisive score; Darnold was stripped on a sack and the Cougars recovered to seal the win a few plays later.
It wasn’t the type of mayhem and anarchy that has grown to define the #PAc12AfterDark games, but it was a compelling, close matchup with high stakes between two quality teams. Washington State has historically had very little success in games against both USC and highly-ranked teams, so it was easily the best win of the Mike Leach era. He has his quarterback and a host of exciting playmakers, the defense is in coordinator Alex Grinch’s capable hands, and the season finale in the Apple Cup against Washington should again be a pivotal contest with conference title and playoff implications, perhaps on both sides. Washington State has still yet to play a road game, and five of their last seven games (including at Washington) are away from home, so the remaining schedule is difficult, but Leach’s Cougars definitely entered the national picture with that win over USC.
Clemson 31, Virginia Tech 17
The final score doesn’t accurately depict how this game went – from the beginning, it was clear that Clemson was the far better team, and they spent most of the game on cruise control before giving up two touchdowns in the fourth quarter (one came on a two-yard drive at the beginning of the fourth following an impressive Greg Stroman punt return, the other was on Virginia Tech’s last drive of the game). The Tigers set the tone early: their first possession was a methodical, chain-moving march for a field goal, and their second ended on a quick touchdown on a long wheel route to an uncovered running back, Tavien Feaster; their defense started the game by forcing four straight points and only conceding one first down in that span.
A conservative Virginia Tech offense – that was rightfully fearful of giving up turnovers – was able to gain some traction towards the end of the first half, stringing together consecutive drives that resulted in field goal attempts (they missed one). Unfortunately for Tech, they conceded a touchdown on the Clemson possession between those two drives; Kelly Bryant hit Deon Cain for two long passes to set up a short touchdown run. The score was 17-3 headed into halftime, and for the second time in three weeks, Clemson had completely taken hold of a marquee road game at night against a ranked opponent.
The Hokies started the second half with great position after moving the Tigers backwards on a three-and-out drive, but star defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence forced a fumble (recovered by linebacker Dorian O’Daniel) near midfield to get the ball back; five minutes of game time later, Clemson worked the ball down the field, converted a few third downs, and punched the ball into the end zone with a Feaster touchdown run on fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line to make it a three-score game. Tech then opened up their offense with redshirt quarterback Josh Jackson: they were able to move the ball a little better (he threw for 251 yards), but he threw two picks – one of which was bobbled by a receiver, plucked away by O’Daniel, and returned for a touchdown.
Clemson was actually outgained by Virginia Tech (mostly due to garbage time, but still), and the offense wasn’t exactly great – they managed just 3.4 yards per carry and, outside of Bryant, their running game was ineffective. The defense was so dominant that it didn’t really matter. They’ve now won three games against teams ranked in the Top 15 at the time, and with Florida State’s injury at quarterback and general disappointment, the rest of the schedule sets up nicely for a third consecutive playoff run. A trip to NC State could be tricky and they did drop an unexpected game last season, but Clemson has the most impressive resume of any team by far through five weeks – and a championship-level defense can give Bryant and the retooled offense a large margin of error.
Could we be in for a national championship rubber match between the Tigers and Alabama? It sure seems like a strong possibility.
Other Notable Results
- Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 34. The Cowboys recovered from a loss to TCU by going on the road to Lubbock and pulling out a close win against a feisty Red Raider team with Mason Rudolph scrambling for a late, go-ahead touchdown. Rudolph played well against an improved Tech defense (though he did throw a 95-yard pick six in the first half) – almost ten yards per attempt and three passing touchdowns. The Tech defense has improved considerably from last season, but it was torched by Oklahoma State’s explosive offense for most of the night. A second consecutive loss could have put the Cowboys in an insurmountable hole in the Big 12 title race, so it was crucial for them to overcome a Tech comeback and escape with a win.
- Miami 31, Duke 6. Believe it or not, Duke had been pretty good entering this game, but they were no match for Miami – a team that could eventually be a foil for Virginia Tech in the ACC title game (somehow, the Canes have never won the Coastal and made it). It was an impressive defensive showing for The U against Duke: the Blue Devils were able to move the ball decently enough, but were stopped on downs in the red zone on the opening series of the game, were held to two field goals on time-consuming drives, and turned it over twice. The game was somewhat close until big play touchdowns broke the game open in the fourth quarter for Miami. After a two-week layoff following Hurricane Irma, Miami had sort of a tough time with Toledo, but recovered this week; they face Florida State next in a pivotal matchup for both teams. Speaking of FSU, they escaped with a road win against a then-undefeated Wake Forest team on Saturday, but their leaky offensive line could put skinny freshman quarterback James Blackman in trouble against their rivals.
- Wisconsin 33, Northwestern 24. It was a weird game in Madison for the overwhelming Big Ten West frontrunners: the Badgers fumbled on the first play of the game, Alex Hornibrook threw two deep interceptions in the first half, and Northwestern took a 10-7 lead into halftime. Wisconsin woke up in the second half, scoring two touchdowns on their first two possessions – the first was set up by a bomb from Hornibrook to Quintez Cephus, the second was set up by a Northwestern punt that netted nine yards following the return and a personal foul penalty. Clayton Thorson threw a pick-six early in the fourth to make it a three-score game and it looked like Wisconsin had sealed the result, but two quick touchdowns put the Wildcats in range of potentially sending the game to overtime. They got the ball back down seven with just over a minute left and had to go the length of the field; Thorson was sacked in the end zone for a safety, which ended the game.
- Auburn 49, Mississippi State 10. Circling back to the SEC briefly before the end: Auburn looked really good against Mississippi State and the offense finally broke out against what’s probably a quality defense (the Tigers’ 51 points the week before against Missouri should be taken with a giant grain of salt). Jarrett Stidham was excellent in the win over MSU – he threw for 16.5 yards per attempt, had two passing touchdowns, and made it a three-score game early in the second quarter with a long pass to Will Hastings, one of four completions that went for over 40 yards. Running back Kerryon Johnson was impossible for the Bulldog defense to stop; he had over a hundred yards and punched in three touchdowns. On one hand, Mississippi State might not be any good now that we know their big win over LSU didn’t mean a whole lot, but it was an impressive showing for Auburn nonetheless. The Tigers host Georgia and Alabama late in the season, and are the likeliest loss for both of those teams.