Ticket Watch Talks Agricultural Risk Management

Why hello there, secondary ticket market. You were so dead all season we almost forgot you existed. No data changed but the date on the calendar. That was plenty: Michigan is 4-0 with a bye before Michigan State, and on Monday half the fanbase started looking for State tickets. Then they started buying up other tickets. Can you find seats? When should you buy? Let’s look where things stand, then see if history is any guide.

APPDATE!

Yes we are still planning to launch the app that lets you buy and sell each other tickets on gameday using a map.

(click embiggens)

Tidget is in the phase now where the developers are sending a version with lots of “still working on that” and “what do you think?” flags on it to Tres and myself. By next week I want to have a version that is super-raw but ready for a couple of friends and volunteers (yes I’ve noted you guys in the comments) to go wandering around somewhere with bad reception and see if it’s working. As expected, the whole ballgame is minimal data so we’re keeping this thing light.

Reminder: if you go to www.tidgetapp.com (lead photo by Patrick Barron) and sign up pre-launch you get to use it for free when we do get it out there.

AG SCHOOL MARKET OUTLOOK

It’s been kind of funny watching the prices since Monday, because they started at around $250 (remember add 22% to StubHub) and they keep coming back to that price point. What I think happened is the buyers who decided to manage risk by snatching up their seats inadvertently set the market price for the week. A few tickets will go on sale for that amount, then they get bought up until it gets to $260 and stops until someone goes back under $250 again.

Here’s my advice: DON’T BUY YOUR STATE TICKET AT $250. I’ll give you my reasons:

1. Only the get-in price is up. While the get-in price has gone up, look how soft the rest of those seats are right now:

THE REST OF THE SCHEDULE

The last column takes the personal seat donation that season ticket holders had to pay and halves it, since people who bought those were basically paying that for access to the two rivalry games. What it shows is the ONLY seat that’s tracking significantly above what the ticket holder paid for it is the “get me in the building” price.

2. There are already lot of sellers out there. Further evidence that the market is too bullish right now is how many tickets are for sale. StubHub alone shows 1,174 end zone seats alone, with over a hundred available in several sections. Cheap season ticket holders are playing the market, trying to use their State seats to pay off a chunk of the package. Dave may be gone but Michigan still outrageously gouges their season ticket buyers—the best play they have to recoup the overpriced Air Force and Cincinnati tickets is to sell off the rivalry games.

3. The buyers are out in force. We’re at a weird moment in the cycle of this game because the long-rumored night game was finally announced, sending all the excited night game aficionados to the exchanges. You know who isn’t moving yet with the announcement? The bluehairs! I remember in 2014 watching those Penn State tickets shoot up early in the year and stay in the $200s even after the team proved unwatchable. There ended up being a bunch of them selling for cheap or going for free a day before. Granted that year was not a good sample for a lot of reasons, but the bluehairs who were giving away those seats weren’t doing it for late Hoke ennui; they get talked out of driving home at 11 o’clock at night. Those seats don’t tend to show on the TicketIQs and StubHubs, but they depress the market outside of the get-in price.

4. Michigan State has to play Iowa first. While we’re on a bye, State next week hosts a team that nearly took out Penn State in East Lansing. That score (let alone the finish) was closer than the game, however, and you can never discount Iowa going full Iowa. Beating Iowa risks Spartans into a frenzied last-minute hope spree and lock in a $200-ish price. A loss shouldn’t change things because a loss is wholly expected. This is a gamble, but it’s a gamble worth taking. Notre Dame’s win in East Lansing killed off most of the outside chance of a Spartan reawakening that adds a bunch of green. Those who will come will come anyway, and there are enough of them that the get-in price won’t drop below the Face+PSD50 mark I just made up.

5. The Bye The Bye The Bye. This game is two weeks away, so speculators are making up much of the sellers while the “oh crap I have to sell these” folks haven’t begun to feel stressed about that. Unless tickets become hard to come by, the prices always float high until the Thursday or Friday before the event. At this point all of the weather events, family emergencies, and changes of heart are way off in the future—nobody has to sell a ticket right now.

6. Michigan prices play for Michigan. Okay, Mrs. Lincoln, I want you to think back before THAT and remember how hard it was to get tickets to that play in the first place. Got that in your head? Yeah, that one ended up being $200 as of the Wednesday before the game. And it was tracking similarly to this year’s prices as of two weeks out. That was when Michigan State was a perennial contender and Michigan was newly Harbaughcized. It’s not MSU fans driving the price up this year—at least not any more than they did in 2012 when their team was too hopeless to notice Michigan was rickety.

So when and how much? I’m sticking with my $160 goal to get in the endzone. Face value plus half of someone’s PSD is basically face. As for the nicer seats, they’re liable to come down some more. If you get better than $125 for any ticket to this game you ought to buy the seller a meal in gratitude.

OTHER GAMES?

That one I highlighted is only a few rows up at midfield behind the Maryland bench, but labeled “obstructed view.” Maryland people: does that just mean you can’t see over the Maryland players or something?

Since the rest of the games aren’t moving a ton (and I’m still trying to learn about Wisconsin’s market) I’ll get into the rest of the schedule next week. But quickly: Penn State buy at $150, Rutgers find outside the gate for $10 or something, Minnesota $60ish, Maryland who knows probably crap because they’re out of QBs, Wisconsin looks to be $100-$125ish, and Ohio State won’t be less than $250 until we know the exact weather.