Upon Further Review 2017: Offense vs Air Force

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FORMATION NOTES. Air Force runs a 3-4, but it's not like that. Whereas your conventional 3-4 has big guys who two-gap, Air Force has little guys. It's a one-gap 3-4, if you will.

The NT almost always shaded between the C and G in a one tech, with four linebackers in the traditional 3-4 umbrella. Sometimes head up with the same umbrella, and check those safeties on first and freakin' ten:

Now, there are a ton of very obvious ways in which this is not at all the 3-3-5 stack Michigan runs. Air Force doesn't stack their linebackers, for one. They rarely insert an OLB between their DEs as anything other than a twist blitz; Michigan is constantly making Furbush an extra DL. AF just about always shaded their NT instead of running a zero-tech, and they had a clear weakside and strongside end, with the strongside end basically a DT. Michigan's DEs have run identical techniques for the duration of the season. Also there is not a withdrawn MLB like Bush; instead two ILBs.

These are the ways in which Michigan's defense is not at all like Air Force's, which is a one-gap 3-4.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES. The regular at QB and OL. Onwenu got pulled for the last three plays of the final drive, with Runyan coming in. Isaac was the starting RB and got the bulk of the work; Evans was pulled after his fumble until late, when Isaac went out with a minor injury. Mason one snap at FB, with the seniors going the rest of the way.

WR was Black, Crawford, and DPJ outside with cameos from Schoenle on running plays. That's getting into a major play tip zone, though Black's injury might change that. Perry got most of the run in the slot; McDoom had maybe a dozen snaps, and not all were jet stuff.

Tight end was the usual rotation of everyone, minus Wheatley. He had a ding that held him out. Also I might not have seen Eubanks? I don't think I saw Eubanks. Bunting is losing ground, BTW, to McKeon and Gentry.

[After THE JUMP: the bone! oh if only]

ARGH IT BURNS

Michigan's redzone offense?

YOU SAID THAT DOESN'T EXIST

I mean... I don't think it does? Mostly?

GODDAMN RIGHT IT DOESN'T

That's not what I meant. Offense is mostly offense. Redzone offenses that are better or worse than regular offenses do not exist in the NFL, and making a case for it in college has to overcome that fact first and foremost. You can do it based on offensive style, which actually varies in college, but then you have to contend with Harbaugh's track record in that department.

In this game in particular there was no such thing as redzone offense, because there was no such thing as redzone defense. Air Force is always in a redzone defense, with safeties in your grill and dudes charging across the LOS. Michigan's field-goal fest is an anomaly, and things will get better. I predict Michigan's redzone offense going forward is about as good as their overall offense.

IF ONLY YOU HAD A 15 MINUTE LONG ANNOTATED VIDEO THAT COULD CONVINCE ME OF THIS

Hold on just a second there, buddy. This is from MGoFish's Stephen Osentoski, and while I have different takes on a number of plays I agree with the overall thrust:

Redzone issues are offense issues, with a side of getting RPSed hard. Higdon runs an inside zone on which the DE doesn't respect Speight at all, that kind of thing. Good-ass blitzes getting guys around the corner just in time. Corner blitzes clobbering a playcall. Speight throwing the ball wide; McDoom not running a route the right way. All of these are regular-ass offense issues.

We can't throw a fade in the field of play!

Well... okay, that's a redzone issue.

I WANT TO STUFF SPEIGHT IN THE QUARTERBACK ENGOODENING MACHINE I JUST INVENTED

that's a wood chipper

NO IT'S NOT

...

OKAY MAYBE IT IS

OKAY IT DEFINITELY IS

That's not nice.

SO

Anyway. Speight had only 26 charted events. Six of those were screens that I don't include in the DSR; four more were PR or MA. He ended up 10/16 on the day:

[Hennechart orientation: mouse over column headers for explanations of the categories. + is handed out for a good throw under duress. * is handed out for a very bad version of a bad thing. Numbers in parens are screens. DSR is an attempt to compress the numbers into one overall number.]

WILTON SPEIGHT

There are four plus signs and two asterisks for terrible terrible BRX reads, so this was an eventful, if abbreviated, outing.

Speight had his share of excellent throws, including Michigan's first third down:

That's a second read that he comes to and throws an inch-perfect sideline throw to Black for the conversion. A would-be third down conversion at Crawford was also excellent. The wild overthrows were reduced; the three INs there were fades way out of the endzone and an early redzone miss in the direction of Perry. None were potential INTs.

And yet, the feels remain bad.They're getting worse as long as he stays at this performance level. The guy who was a pressure maestro last year seems gone. Even when he did the very good pressure thing in this game he immediately assumes he's running the ball in from the eight and only changes his mind very late. Grant Perry is running wide open directly in front of his face as he does this:

Crawford can and should help him out later in the play, but I don't understand why the rollout to the side of the field your best WR is running a route in does not immediately trigger "look at your best WR."

Speight's decision-making was off in this game, which just adds to our list of complaints. Speight's wildly overthrown fades were not just bad throws but bad ideas. He's reading them first when that's obviously not the best option available. These almost all go to Crawford, who is not 6'4" or 6'7" and has shown no particular skill at bringing in fades. (Or, uh, other passes.) They are often thrown in lieu of other, much easier routes. In the opener Speight chucked a fade sort of at Crawford against a telegraphed zero blitz instead of throwing a slant to Perry, his best receiver, against a safety who got wrecked.

This week he's got Tarik Black in clear one on one coverage against an Air Force DB and still chooses a super-tough throw instead of the obvious, easy, and open slant to the other side of the field:

#7 WR to bottom

Maybe that's not a 100% touchdown on the backside but it's sure as hell a better shot than a fade at Crawford. Even if it's thrown, you know, in bounds. That throw sucks. The decision sucks worse. That's the kind of stuff you cannot miss if you are a battleship QB.

Also an irritant I've mentioned twice already: Speight isn't locking onto his best receiver. This could have been the whole offense:

Surely Grant Perry should be the first read on most plays, but too often in this game a blitheringly wide open Perry was not located. This is two guys on one zone corner with a safety on the next planet, and Speight's staring right at it after a great blitz pickup:

#88 slot WR

I have no idea how he doesn't throw that. Look at this!

That is the easiest read Speight will ever have, and the open guy is the one he should be using as a crutch. WTF! /spikes clipboard

This Perry slant when he is one on one with a safety was also not thrown:

#88 slot receiver

Again Speight appears to be looking right at an open Perry and does not throw:

Speight picked up the first down on the ground but this was a very grudging SCR. Throw the dang ball.

Speight's getting sped up by his mediocre pass protection, but make no mistake: it is mediocre. It is not terrible, or even bad. Per Football Outsiders the average NFL team gives up a pressure 27% of the time, and while college is different for a lot of reasons I'd be surprised if that wasn't pretty close. Michigan's protection metrics so far: 69%, 80%, 69%. That's not much different than it was last year, when Speight was operating at a higher level. He is making more mistakes, regardless of the youth around him. I've kept an eagle eye out for it and tried to give Speight a fair shake when a ball goes wide and it may or may not be on him.

You said in the game column that you thought there were a bunch of subtle WR screwups that were hurting the offense. Find any?

Yes. Some weren't that subtle. Black twice failed to crack block, once on an Eddie McDoom bubble that he juked back into productivity...

...and once on one of those redzone plays. This is basically a wide receiver screen. It may literally be intended as one given how close Perry is to the LOS. Crawford cracks down and picks off a guy; Black runs an aimless slant:

I do not wish to speak ill of the freshman dead, but there were some very obvious HELLO YES THIS IS FRESHMAN issues in this game.

More subtle is this throw to McDoom near the goal line:

That looks like a sucky throw and a bad read since Perry is once again lonelier than the a sportswriter who hasn't joined the Athletic. BUT! I think this is on McDoom. His cut here is unusual. He has the guy set up with his hips outside and should immediately cut hard to the inside, run across his face, and force him to flip those hips, whereupon he will be dead meat. He starts to do that and then aborts. He goes upfield of the DB, which puts the DB between him and the ball and is a deeply weird thing to do for a WR who wants to be open. Speight is already in his throwing motion when he does this:

Only thing I can figure is that he was worried about running into the safety that's futilely chasing Perry. If McDoom does make this cut he is likely to be wide open for a TD and that's what Speight throws. He's reading high to low and has a guy he thinks is a touchdown. The WR does something unexpected and also bad; incomplete. (It is possible this throw was too high. I can't tell. It was not too far inside; McDoom was too far outside.)

Also in subtle issues, Michigan's opening snap was a bomb in his direction, and hoo boy do I hate this:

Crawford has no idea how to judge this ball. It's in the air, he's staring at it, and he still fades to the sideline like he's Kevonte Martin-Manuel trying to bring in a Jake Rudock seam throw. (YES I AM STILL BITTER ABOUT THIS.) The ball hits about a yard from the sideline, and it's a little short. A ton of wide receivers catch this ball, or at least force a PI out of the DB. Crawford does neither, and I'm immediately reminded of Darryl Stonum. This is the kind of throw where you have given your WR a shot, and it deserves better.

So did this, Speight's best throw of the day:

A critical drop on a routine ball; that's Crawford's second of the year on not too many opportunities.

And on the Speight spin on third and goal he had no idea what to do:

He spins and has zero point zero chance to affect this guy but still chases him; if he stays in the endzone either this guy has to cover him or Speight has a better chance to run it in or find the blitheringly wide open Perry. Crawford has easily been the most disappointing player on the offense. He's a second year player, unlike the rest of the WR crew, but Black has felt like a (relative) veteran while Crawford seems like a freshman. And now Black is gone.

I will vouch for Crawford on the called-back Isaac touchdown. This is the worst holding call ever made. Also, Nate Schoenle got a little back for his position group on Michigan's final drive when he made a great decision to abandon his block and go find another:

#81 WR to bottom of screen

If we're about to see a bunch more of him at least his blocking radar is on point.

This seems like a good point to put in the receiving chart:

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

ROUTES: Perry +, Gentry +, Black +-, Crawford –, McDoom –.

All easy catches except for the early bomb and the very bad back shoulder corner throw, neither of which were made; Crawford also had the bad drop. Lot of route minuses as well. Speight is not getting help on downfield throws.

Didn't you say something like "Black and Crawford and DPJ == Chesson and Darboh" before the season?

Yes, and that was dumb. I formally apologize.

Hermphf. At least the ground game was okay? Sort of?

The rejoined comprehensive run chart is very TE/FB heavy as Air Force slanted a bunch and made those backside cuts very relevant. Things went... okay:

Michigan's blocking was a little substandard as they failed to cope with blitzes too often. Their running backs edged above positive but only just, and RPS was a draw. 5.1 YPC from backs is about NCAA average once you remove sacks and scrambles; the grading came out to about average.

It could have been much more than that. When Michigan was able to ID and pick up the various twists and slants and whatnot they got big chunks. The near-TD from Isaac on the first drive was a backside stunt from Air Force on which Hill IDed and hit the looper:

There were a bunch of runs where Michigan was a block or cut away from a touchdown. Mason's thump almost cleared the way for Evans, but Ulizio bumped Gentry off course; Higdon had a TD waiting for him on a cutback, etc. A couple of those swing the YPC way up and grab another set of positives. This offense has issues, but they're not far off from being pretty good on the ground. Great? Ask again next year.

Onwenu got pulled late. What was up with that?

I thought he was mostly fine. He was actually cruising towards a very nice day until late. He had a couple of rough moments at the end that got him pulled for Runyan on Michigan's last few plays. One was Actually Bad, a holding call on a second level block he overran. The second I'm not so sure about. Yeah, he hit the wrong guy. But this feels like a bad line call since Kugler doesn't get off his guy.

Onwenu's picking which linebacker to let through scot free. He picks the wrong one, admittedly. The C has to move over and take that blitzer and then maybe Onwenu knows to hit the outside guy.

I didn't think he had much to be concerned about prior to that. He got his share of mauling in, and had few pass protection issues. His pulling is very good for a man mountain. The Isaac TD that got called back was a power play where he got around in maximally efficient fashion:

#50 RG who pulls

(Also check out Poggi's kickout block, which is a crumpler. He's is much improved this year.) Onwenu's ability to get around the corner on those pulls is impressive at his size.

Kugler, meanwhile, had a rough day and might have been responsible for more stuff than the obvious. Air Force had a number of plays on which Michigan looked befuddled. Sometimes that's individual players. Sometimes that's the line call. Kugler consistently failed to adapt to the nose tackle exiting stage right, and a couple of plays on which some other sap looked bad were issues with either Kugler's ability to ID a blitz or the presnap line call. He got some –2s when he decided to block a guy who was very obviously leaving for another gap.

That Ulizio number in pass protection looks familiar.

Yes. This dumpoff to nowhere early is forced by Ulizio blowing a blitz pickup, which makes Gentry look dumb:

That terrible fade to Crawford in the endzone—out of the endzone—was also Ulizio blowing it. Ditto the sack where Speight went into Mallett Mode. All of these were recognition issues on blitzes. Hopefully that gets ironed out over the next few weeks.

Your Isaac number is pretty skeptical for a guy who had 5.6 YPC and was a hair off from a bunch more.

Isaac had a decent day but one a level down from his first two. He reliably cut backsidewhen that was the move and picked up chunks. He nearly ripped off those two long touchdown runs with his excellent long speed.

On the downside, this:

It's third and one and running forward really hard is mandatory. Can't stop like he does even if Hill botches his block ID. A lot of people have talked about the cutback lane that might be there, and, yeah, that's a possibility. Isaac might still get the first down if he just runs as hard as possible right off Gentry and gets lucky; that's acceptable. Cutting back a couple gaps and trying the gap is great. Neither is... not great. That's close to a turnover's worth of lost value.

The other two backs both had their issues. Evans fumbled, of course, and did not return until late. Higdon got some poor blocking; he also missed a huge cutback for the third consecutive game. Michigan's jet fake draws the LB level and the sole safety; Ulizio correctly identifies the shift in the Air Force defense. His block is meh but it doesn't matter:

That is a touchdown if Higdon goes in the gap to the backside on split zone, a play that really really wants to catch this exact line slant so it can shoot someone backside. I threw a spoon watching this.

Higdon did have many mansome blitz pickups, so he's got that going for him. Also a touchdown.

You promised a Ben Mason thump.

So I did. Ben Mason got a personal foul on a kick return; he also did this:

That Flor guy he hit was legit, and thumping him is a pretty good start to his fullback career.

Bunting vs McKeon... uh. That is not how it's supposed to go for junior vs freshman.

It's late early for Bunting. Yes, seriously. Michigan clearly does not prefer him over the younger guys by playing time and too often when he gets in his blocking decisions destroy plays. There was a lot of grumbling about the jet sweep to McDoom being a bad playcall; it absolutely was not. Playside DE and LB shoot inside and McDoom just has a corner who Cole is going to harass if Bunting IDs his guy. He does not. Blocking inside out is rule #1, #2, and #3 on these plays and he blows by the safety who makes the tackle:

#89, second TE from bottom

That's terrible. Redshirt freshman? Fine, we'll get it fixed. Redshirt junior? Terrible.

A couple other times in this game his blocking came up as an issue. This is less of a BFD but he's getting a down block here and his inability to hold his ground closes the crease; Higdon ends up off balance and can't try any cool moves:

Bunting is at best on par with McKeon and Gentry in the pecking order (Wheatley is a different beast) and those guys are ascending players, in the parlance of our times. Bunting isn't. He's probably going to drop further behind as the younger (or in Gentry's case, less experienced) tight ends improve faster than he does.

I have this lingering sense of woe.

oh do tell

I mean... this used to be the Stanfordization section and had all the cool stuff Harbaugh did every week and now it's just bleah.

Michigan has dialed back the stunt casting aspect of their offense somewhat, but they haven't totally foregone tweaks that get free yards. They battled their way up a 0 RPS in this game.

That is somewhat cold comfort, I know. The offensive tweaks have been less flashy, and honestly less effective. Michigan's not burning folks with trap blocks or T-formation stuff or that double screen PA to a tight end thing. They've mostly been working on basics with maybe a little tweak thrown in here or there. Those basics are almost all inside zone—hello Greg Frey. The tweaks to that are plays that look a lot like inside zone but aren't, like this TE iso play:

#84 h-back

That linebacker level runs to the front like it's IZ and the backside LB gets a whack from McKeon; easy first down. Michigan's gone so far to zone that power is now a constraint. Michigan's first power of the day was at the end of the third quarter, and Isaac scored on it because one of Air Force's safeties buried himself in the interior of the line on what must have been an epic missed read.

One thing of note is that Michigan's crack sweep is established enough that Michigan can run constraints off of it. The Evans fumble was a crack constraint. It's more or less just inside zone but check the guys hammering outside on it:

#97 Air Force DE to top of screen

That is a big-ass gap and against a defense less maniacal than Air Force that's a chunk play instead of six-yards-or-a-touchdown. The flip side to that are some crack sweeps where Michigan blocks it well and still gets stuffed. Michigan's moving a bit on those now. Schoenle's excellent block once he realized the edge guy was very edge indeed gives Michigan a way to continue getting yards even when the playside guys widen out with a vengeance.

Okay but where were the deep shots?

Yes.

What?

Frequently you're there to set up arguments to knock down but here... yes. I assumed Michigan would be running a ton of max pro play action against this team. This did not happen much... or basically at all. That Evans run above saw the deepest guy at seven yards. Run it, run PA, and fire it deep at a 6'7" guy, thanks.

Instead, Michigan's only attempt downfield was the opening play. And that wasn't a terrible outcome! A panicky DB almost got a PI call. Why you would never return to that when you have Donovan Peoples-Jones and Air Force safeties are starting at eight yards is a mystery. There were many plays on which run action saw the safeties step forward before the handoff:

Those guys are at six yards and moving to the LOS; at some point Michigan had to send Gentry screaming past those guys. But no. I don't get it. It's not like running play action to the tight end is something anyone has bothered to hide since 1950.

Hell, the one max pro PA on first down they ran after the first play was this mesh to DPJ for 15 easy yards:

(Michigan is running a bunch of that, which is new. Gentry's catch and run was also mesh.)

It didn't feel like Michigan took much advantage of Air Force's aggressiveness in the air. Some of that was Speight ignoring Perry for God knows what reason. Some of it was the coaches not dialing up the obvious response despite a huge athleticism advantage.

I dunno, man.

Heroes?

Nobody really leaps off the page as a guy who had a great game. Many had acceptable games, even good ones. Most gave large chunks of their positives back. I will put in a shout for the fullbacks as a crew, as they had +11.5 and just –2.

Maybe not so heroic?

Like the offense there weren't many people who stood out as bad either, just a lot of meh. Kugler and Bunting did struggle on the ground, and Ulizio blew three blitz pickups.

What does it mean for Purdue and the future?

This is an inside zone team. Frey's arrival has clearly made for a shift in offensive line philosophy. IZ is the bread and butter, power is a constraint. I'd expect the variety to ramp up as the season goes along and Michigan gets a better handle and can spend more time in practice on frippery.

Dumb screens are coming. Michigan threw six dumb wide receiver screens in this game, and they have DPJ, a freshman who is nuts, and McDoom, a guy who carves out 3-4-5 extra yards most of the time he gets the ball on the edge. Expect more of them. Hopefully Michigan can fade that out somewhat by the Wisconsin game, as better Ds will clamp down on dumb screens.

Until then: short throws to McDoom and DPJ.

More deep shots please. If opponents are going to do this kind of thing you have Gentry and DPJ and you should use them.

Speight: meh. We increment expectations lower after a third mediocre outing.

Throw it to Perry! First read: Perry. Second read: Perry. Third read: someone else.

Don't expect Onwenu to lose his job. That late wobble was the only thing preventing him from having a great day. Impressive mobility, huge, no pass pro minuses in this game.

Redzone offense doesn't exist. I don't mean it like that. But you know what I mean.