Upon Further Review 2017: Defense vs Air Force

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FORMATION NOTES. Michigan spent virtually the entire game in the stack. Most of the time they had Hudson aligned as the "pup" linebacker, as discussed in the game column.

Hudson on the hash farthest back.

Michigan had been using their DEs in a five tech (IE, lined up outside the tackles) in their first two games. Here they moved them into "4i," which is shaded just inside the tackles. The wing players are Metellus and Kinnel, with the corners flanking Hudson.

Air Force is of course in the flexbone. I called the above look "flexbone tight" and this one "flexbone twin TE":

Michigan did not slide in response and a lot of Air Force's successful runs came by hammering doubles down on both Furbush and Gary, but more about that later.

When Air Force went three-wide Michigan responded with a more conventional-looking press with two high safeties—for a given definition of "high."

Michigan had a four man front with Bryan Mone on two snaps. Oddly these were both first and tens; Air Force gained 1 and –3 yards.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES. The back eight was nearly immutable. J'Marick Woods got one snap when Metellus was dinged up and Michigan rotated Watson, Hill, and Long through their two CB spots. The LBs, Kinnel, and Hudson did not depart for any reason aside the two Mone snaps on which Hudson left.

The line was mostly Winovich, Hurst, and Gary. Kemp got maybe a half-dozen snaps; Solomon spotted Hurst for a similar amount of time. I think there was one Reuben Jones snap, maybe a few. Mone got the aforementioned two snaps.

[After THE JUMP: the bone!]

So that was a thing.

Yeah. I haven't done a triple option game in five years and this was interesting. It messes with my head, though. Usually I'll offer some positives for anything short of five yards on the ground. Against Air Force you begin to question your assumptions about what's good and bad.

Also your assumptions about rock-paper-scissors. I had Michigan +1, and I have no idea how I feel about that.

On the one hand, Michigan spent a large chunk of this game vulnerable to a power option play Air Force kept running successfully, and when I think Michigan can't hold down a gain without a superhero effort that's when the minuses start coming out. Here's the first instance of Air Force's overloaded formation where they line up both WRs as inline tight ends to the boundary. I can't see how Michigan is supposed to hold this down unless Furbush is able to do something amazing against a straight up play-long double team, and out come the RPS minuses:

The BTN director—who did a much better job than the guy assigned to Cincinnati last week—provided a helpful closeup of this action. Here's the wall of meat Furbush and Gary are trying to get through:

Even if by some miracle Gary does rip through that double to the playside he just runs into Furbush or the two guys hammering him the whole play. Air Force just kept doing this... until they didn't. This drive ended in a field goal; the first two plays of the next drive were the exact same play. The second was Air Force's biggest run on the day.

Option teams will discover your scheme and tweak to blow it up, and here you go: Metellus gets blocked and nobody can crash down on the QB except Hill, who overplays the pitch.

This looks real bad and then it stops. Why? I don't know. Michigan had not adjusted yet.

After the big run Mone came in for a snap that was a dive he crushed; Michigan went back to the stack but Air Force didn't overload on the next snap. A great Winovich play and a false start later it was third and 14. The Winovich play is the direct result of Air Force not having the extra guy to the playside and having to pick one guy to double. They picked Winovich. They chose poorly:

#15 DE to bottom of screen

The next two drives get stuffed with no overload; they return to it right after the DPJ punt return, picking up a first down, but Michigan has responded by shading their back end to the run strength. A second-and-four power option to the weakside gains just one; the third down conversion sees Hudson free but insufficiently aggressive. The party is over.

The net result for Air Force was a couple of field goals and a lot of RPS minuses. Their pitch sweeps also generated a lot of RPS minuses since it was one block on Hudson and then desperate pursuit; on the last, successfully defended one Michigan slid their linebackers to the field and that was enough to get a three yard gain. 27 and 9 yard gains prior were easy.

I think Don Brown did an outstanding job getting Michigan ready for this game but RPS doesn't show that, because I try to be as systematic as possible with this. This is an achievement:

Don Brown says he had Michigan's D rep option 230 times between last Tues and Wed. They blew one assignment Saturday.

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) September 20, 2017

It is an achievement RPS does not grade.

Let's agree to grade on a curve, then?

I mean, right? Yes. It's always going to be tough to keep your head above water when Air Force lives and breathes triple option while Michigan is only making a cameo defending it. Michigan just did (and they were aided by some big pass pro busts on M blitzes to do so); that doesn't feel like a C. It feels like an A.

Michigan did get a number of easy stops. Here Michigan does some pre-snap pointing and relocates Long to an area of the field where no Falcon thinks they need to block him. End result is a TFL and a stop on third and four:

#22, "LB" right on the arrow

Air Force was equally discombobulated by the two Mone snaps. Winovich gets to blow up the puller here but this poor guy is put behind the eight ball by his own player, who runs in front of him and robs him of momentum. The resulting contact is always going to be won by Winovich:

There were only two of these snaps in the game but Michigan won both. Also, Air Force just had their worst offensive output since 2012. The defense, it is good. Look at this-

very respectful of our military but uncomfortably hoping this is obliteration CHART

Yes, that, I guess.

Two guys were mostly obscured by great piles of flesh they were trying to paw their way through: Furbush and Gary, who almost always got play-long doubles they didn't do great against but didn't do horribly against. Or they were run away from. The rest of the front six killed it.

The back end should get a lot of credit for the coverage number, which is one –5 play you probably remember, one guy who might have popped open but wasn't targeted, and absolutely nothing otherwise. While the DB scores above are hovering around zero for the safeties that coverage number pulls each of them up into good to very good.

That's quite a bounce-back from McCray.

McCray was at home in this game. He was an interior punisher on the rare occasions Air Force tried the interior. Here he makes a dead-stop tackle on third and three:

#9 LB to bottom of screen

Later on that drive (the 12 play, 24 yard FG drive that was about half the second quarter) he gambled and won on a toss sweep, starting his drive outside on the B-back's motion. By the time he reaches the lead blockers he's got so much momentum that two guys take him on and they still get blocked back; back has to bend and has no blockers and gets TFLed:

And this is just a monster play. Stays home, beats a cut block, solo TFL.

#9 LB to bottom of screen

Few coverage responsibilities and few edge responsibilities makes for a good McCray day, inherently, but don't sell his performance here short based on that. He had one good zone drop and PBU in desperation time; he was able to get to the edge a few times and make plays. The pitch where he pounded McVey out of bounds was an impressive pursuit through two blockers:

#9 OLB to top of screen

Note that Bush is having a similarly impressive jaunt through various guys trying to block him and gets to a productive place if the QB keeps before tripping. Linebacker play in this game was outstanding all around.

Jeez, that's like a slalom through gates that can move and want to kill you.

Yessir, it does have a certain Mario-Kart-level-with-Thwomps feel to it.

If you thought this site's Devin Bush mancrush had reached maximum intensity, hoo boy you haven't seen anything yet. It takes a lot of doing for me to clip a give-up-and-punt run on third and twenty five. Devin Bush done did that on a play where he went from an all-out blitz to a redirect tackle:

#10 MLB

That change of direction is bonkers.

Bush had the occasional hiccup but the rapidity with which he diagnosed his own issues and set to fixing them was impressive. Here's that first RPS minus run Air Force pulled out; Bush gets way too upfield and lost in the wash.

#10 MLB

Next play is the same thing and Bush is done making that mistake.

#10 MLB

He got cut on the 32-yarder but was still able to recover his feet and chase the play down, a feat most linebackers are simply not capable of. That may have saved a touchdown depending on the last man's angle; it definitely saved 15-20 yards. Don't get cut, but do that if you do get cut. Bush is almost never out of a play. He's great at getting through trash—see above—and has the quicks to make upfield dodges of blocks work with some frequency.

He's like Lavonte David, if you remember the Nebraska linebacker who was always ankle-tackling Denard just before he ripped off an 80 yarder. More than once in this game he saved Michigan's ass. The big pitch sweep they got in the second half saw Air Force deliver a lead blocker to Michigan's safety, the last man, but Bush leapt over a cut block and pursued from behind and got just enough for the rest of the defense to rally:

#10 MLB

Again, the number of guys who can do that is not large.

As a linebacker 90% of life is just showing up, and Bush was everywhere. In game #3 against a triple option team. His start could not have been more impressive. He's already a star.

Uh... is Winovich our best DL? I mean? What?

Maybe? I do think Winovich was afforded a certain level of disrespect in this game. Air Force never tried this business in Rashan Gary's direction:

#15 DE to bottom of screen

Can Gary do that if singled up? Probably. Opponents are going to have to adjust to the fact that Winovich obviously can as well.

We're running out of time to be cautiously optimistic on Winovich. Devin Bush-level mancrush is not far behind. He's maintained production in vastly increased snaps—he is the ironman on the line. Maybe Michigan's opposition to date has been bad or, in Air Force's case, small. Maybe this will evaporate if and when Winovich comes up against an elite tackle or pulling G, but 1) how many of those do you see on the schedule and 2) I don't think so.

Killing it against lesser opponents is almost always a preview of doing well against good ones, and Winovich killed it here. He was about as awesome as it appeared on first glance. Several times in this game he whooped his counterpart, whether by land or air. Blockers he met went backwards with the same consistency they have in previous games. "Chase Winovich is powerful" is an odd but true thing. When he contacts people they get jarred back, whether it's on the ground—see the +3 he got in the tactical section above—or in pass protection:

Winovich's consistent pass rush in this game was all the more impressive because he's clearly checking run on each down before converting in a flash to a rusher and beating his opposition quickly enough to make it count. Michigan's pressure was relentless and he was the #1 reason.

But is he?

No? Maybe. Probably no, though. Because Mo Hurst.

Hurst was excellent, consistently driving back whoever he was matched up against. He nearly rearranged the top end of Mo Hurst Got Dang plays on a fourth and one where he was one swipe of a paw away from a TFL on an option:

#73, nose tackle

He had another shot at a WHAT NO HOW play later in the game but he got tackled from behind by a guard. Alas. Even with the NFL draft reel stuff narrowly missing, Hurst excelled. Dives were rarely tried and almost always blown up. He dominated the interior.

I feel bad about not clipping him much anymore because I see something Hurst-like and think "oh that's Hurst, all right, bor-ing" and move on. But make no mistake: he's still elite despite the lack of shiny numbers.

Gary, meanwhile, had another somewhat quiet day. He was not provided many opportunities a la Winovich. If Air Force ran to him they doubled him for the whole play almost without exception. He did flash that physical talent on a third and eight where he slants around an OL and then redirects outside for a tackle:

#3 DE to top of screen

Doing that to the fast little guys on the Air Force OL is maybe more impressive than hurling them backwards. He did that some, too, mostly on pass plays. Here he combines with Winovich for a crunching sack:

I will admit to being a wee bit disappointed that he's not immediately Jadeveon Clowney. Some of that is circumstance. Winovich is about to get him freed up a bunch more, I think.

Hudson had an up and down day?

It was very very up in one aspect: pass coverage. Hudson was tested more than any other Michigan player and was flawless. That is impressive for anyone with run responsibilities against Air Force. He was in position and aware at all times. Many defensive backs turn this PBU into a pass interference call:

#7 S

Hudson undercut another throw that was probably going to be intercepted if it wasn't yards off, and on the McCray PBU Hudson had won that route and was probably going to intercept:

#7, S over the inside slot receiver

The Hail Mary at the end was justice.

Hudson was rough in one specific way: those pitch sweeps. He did get edged constantly on those but that was by design. Michigan saw it several times and he was still doing the same thing at the end of the game. The last one was defended well and gives us some insight into how it's supposed to look:

Hudson was supposed to get a two for one by roaring upfield and picking off a lead blocker while the slot WR tried to block him as well. When he got minuses on these plays it was for not doing so. He did a few times. His indecision did cost Michigan a bit, both there and on a third and four conversion where he had a free run at the QB but did not flow up fast enough.

This is an inversion from what we expected—a hell-for-leather cruncher with coverage issues. Hopefully the indecision is an artifact of the option and the coverage is for real.

So we are clear on the big pass being a Metellus thing?

When in doubt, find the guy Don Brown is yelling at. Per the broadcast and a commenter on the game column who habitually checks out sideline interactions looking for this very information, yep, Metellus.

But when when not doing that he was good. Metellus was able to dissuade almost all option pitches that came his way while still having an impact on the quarterback. He nearly stuffed Air Force's fourth and one conversion but got unlucky when his help—Gary—was coming from the side and a little behind.

#14, LB-ish to top of screen

Air Force had to start spending blockers on him when he's supposed to be the gent optioned off. Their first foray into this was their big chunk run in the second quarter.

And that big worry about young corners in run support?

Bah! Nevermind that. I wasn't quite right that CBs weren't responsible for any bonus rushing yards—Hill didn't crack replace fast enough on a pitch that got Air Force to first and goal—but I wasn't far off. Part of this was Michigan's scheme protecting them. When Michigan was in that "pup" formation they were ten yards off the LOS and plays almost never got to them.

But Michigan did put them in the firing line when Air Force went three wide, where they were all good with Hill particularly excellent. He's got a blocker here and doesn't just force it back but makes a critical zero-yard tackle that is a first step towards an Air Force FGA:

#24 CB to top of screen

I did think he got out of position on the long Air Force run. He's staring at the QB and should be able to realize there's no pitch earlier, cutting this down shortly after Worthman picks up the first down:

#24, safety to bottom of screen about eight yards off LOS

Even with that –2 Hill finished +3 on the day, all of it in run support. Long looked equally capable when called into duty. Only Watson remained totally insulated, that more by chance than anything else. All of his positives were on a couple passes on which he had good coverage.

Heroes?

Winovich, Hurst, McCray, and Bush. All approximately equally.

Maybe not so heroic?

Nobody really. Metellus offset his bust with good play the rest of the day.

What does it mean for Purdue and the future?

Not as much as you'd like. 230 option reps are 230 reps that Michigan now throws in the dumpster.

Winovich is a star. His breakout now spans over three games and is increasingly difficult to deny. He should whoop up on Purdue. Also many other teams. On the flip side, Gary is either so terrifying opponents are gameplanning around him already or he's coming along a little more slowly than projections.

McCray's bad game was likely a one-off. He's not going to be impregnable, especially against spreads, but this game showed off his good points.

All systems go on Bush. This was a major mental test and a major test of his ability to get through traffic. Check and check. Like Winovich, each game he plays brings him closer to slam dunk All Big Ten.

Corner run support: pretty good! Who knew?

Maybe Hudson can cover really well. More caution is warranted here since Air Force WRs are probably the worst on the schedule. His output in this game was nonetheless impressive.

Don Brown. Don Brown.