Upon Further Review 2017: Defense vs Cincinnati

SPONSOR NOTE: I would like to focus on that Larry Culpepper thing. Again. I mean, you've got HomeSure Lending. He's Pitbull here. He has parties. Sometimes underneath overpasses, and he just wants you to have a real good time. He's a Michigan fan, and he loves sharing the Michigan with you.

Other companies, when not putting kittens into their hummus, are running around blaring about rockets or how they invented mortgages and are very annoying and aren't offering you free food or #content. This is not a hard decision, especially when Matt gets you lightning fast quotes.

FORMATION NOTES: More four man fronts in this one. Excluding the final backup-laden drive, I had Michigan down for

• 45 3-3-5 snaps,
• 1 3-2-6 dime snap,
• 11 4-2-5 snaps, and
• 11 4-3-4 snaps.

They did this weird thing some, which I called "3-3 line slide":

Winovich is your "nose tackle" and the other DL are to his left.

They'd also do this thing where they had a huge split between "NT" Hurst and Gary:

These were both pass rush exotics.

Here is a good old 4-3 even. Funny old thing.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: It was always Mone as the fourth DL, so Mone got 22 snaps, about a third of the total. Other starting DL went almost the whole way. Winovich/Hurst/Gary each briefly gave way to Jones/Marshall/Kemp but their snaps were probably under 5 each.

Linebackers were McCray, Bush, and Furbush throughout save the last half of the first UC touchdown drive, when Bush was sidelined with a minor injury and Wroblewski came in. Wroblewski will henceforth be called Robo. Furbush of course missed out on the 4-2-5 snaps.

In the secondary, Kinnel and Metellus were omnipresent; Hill, Watson, and Long rotated through the corner snaps with a scattered few claimed by Ambry Thomas. Glasgow did get one snap on which he defended a slant like a vengeful Kenny G. I think it was just one—he rather sticks out.

Depth chart mavens might be interested in the final drive, which saw Kemp-Dwumfour-Solomon-Paye across the front and a linebacker corps of Uche-Robo-Gil; secondary remained the same.

[After THE JUMP: the killers!]

Is it wrong that I'm concerned at this performance?

probably, but okay shoot

I mean, 14 points to a team that barely beat Austin Peay, and they missed two open deep shots. One was a flat drop on a touchdown.

Fourteen points? Is that gross or net?

Gross. But bad team so we look for holes they poked, right?

I see your point. High level drive chart to set the table, with the last one (six plays, 16 yards in garbage time) omitted:

• 12 three and outs, two of which are pick sixes
• 2 first-down-and-outs
• 53 yard drive at end of first half ending in 51 yard FGA
• 9 play TD drive starting at Michigan 38
• 10 play 85 yard TD drive

The holes poked were few and far between. They are such that we can more or less list all the ways in which Cincinnati had any success that wasn't a one-off based on a bust.

I have a feeling the words "tunnel screen" are in my immediate future.

Yes, they are, although not for very long. I don't have much to add to Seth's analysis. Michigan got RPSed hard on the most successful of them. They'd have five guys in the box or even four; all those guys would go after the QB, and the linebackers were often one on two or even three. That kind of thing. Later they started running defenses that left screen spies at the LOS; Cincinnati did not run tunnels on any of those playcalls.

Five tunnel screens went for a total 54 yards; Michigan has work to do here. They're likely to figure it out, though they'll have to make some sacrifices to do so by rushing less relentlessly on occasion.

Okay, and then?

Another genre of successful Cincinnati play outflanked Michigan by switching the edge guy. This speed option has a clever twist:

#15 DE to top of line

It features a fake mesh point to put the DE in zone read mode. Winovich is contain. The mesh makes him think the QB is the player in need of containment, and he doesn't adjust when the QB and RB switch roles. Michigan's seen this a few times before, but not recently. That's a simple fix Michigan will practice and get down. UC also flanked Winovich on one of those zone sprint plays Michigan had trouble with last year; again Winovich focused on containing the QB instead of the guy running outside. Again: not too hard to fix.

The third and most irritating variety of successful Bearcat plays was a series of blatant OPIs delivered to Brandon Watson's facemask. At least four times in this game a Cincinnati receiver simply blocked Watson into the path of another defensive back. Or did this to him:

CB 28 to bottom of screen

"And let's not forget that keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for, uh, domestic, you know, within the city... that ain't legal either." –refereeing points of emphasis, 2017.

What can you do about that if they're not going to call it? Switch to a bunch of zone, which Michigan did in the second half. 

And what happened on the QB run?

This is filed under one-off bust, and that by a backup. Michigan has a scrape exchange on that should work for a TFL. McCray chases the back out, beating an OL and defeating that bit of the play; Reuben Jones, on one of his three or four snaps, is thus free to thunder at the quarterback and tackle. Instead he forms up as if he is contain, and all the scrape does for Michigan is erase the linebacker level:

4 DE and 9 LB to top of screen

Kinnel then misses a tackle to tack a bunch on. I minused him for that but in his defense it is hard on safeties when players bust directly up the middle of the field that quickly.

Okay but what about the things that they didn't get but could have gotten?

In the game column I credited Cincinnati for setting up a double move with a bunch of slants; this was half true. Metellus did get burned on a carefully prepared slant-corner. He ate the first slant UC threw, which was the only poorly-defended one. After the first shot Michigan harassed every subsequent slant into an incompletion. Glasgow, Kinnel, and Metellus all chipped in. And then the Bearcats went for the payoff:

S #14 on bottom hash

That is a well timed counter and Cincinnati had a shot. Winovich helps disrupt this; QB clearly hears footsteps there. The opportunity was there.

The second one at Hudson was worse coverage since there's really no move, and a much much better throw since Michigan is pouring through the line:

#7 S between bottom hash and numbers

Hudson just spends way too much time in his backpedal before converting to man coverage. That's a guy who's not totally comfortable in zone coverage yet.

This too is an area for some concern. Michigan is going to continue putting their safeties in these situations. Like Onwenu we're talking about true sophomores in start #2 (#3 for Metellus), so there's reason to believe the box safeties will get better at this. There's always a leak somewhere, though, and this looks like a candidate.

So... how did the needle move after this game?

Not much. Still stuck on top five defense that isn't Alabama. The chart, with one notable exception, is solid to better top to bottom:

[update: I did not add in the last desultory drive here since it was very garbage time]

Another day where the DL is utterly dominant—aside from the Jones error the only DL issues were Winovich getting edged twice and a nit picked here and there. Another day where Bush is terrific, and the safeties are mostly terrific, and a huge pressure number. And a notable exception.

So... uh, that notable exception.

Yeah. By the third quarter I was uncomfortable with how this was going to come out. McCray did salvage a couple things after, but not enough. This was a poor performance.

At this point it doesn't even bother me when McCray gets juked in the open field by a back; that's life. (Also I didn't minus that because he beat a cut block and gave up 6 on second and 12.) And I don't really blame him for the holding call since Michigan put him in a terrible spot, alone in man coverage on a tailback. There is no reason that should ever happen.

The other coverage issues were more bothersome because that's a mental problem a fifth year senior is having. The contrast between McCray and Bush jumped out at me. UC spent most of the day trying to pick Michigan defenders in man coverage. When this happens and you are a linebacker the thing to do is to get modest. You are a linebacker. You can't go under the screen, because Nik Stauskas will rain on you.

If anyone can defy this maxim it's Bush, but when UC tested Bush in coverage he darted around the pick and got there to defeat the play:

MLB #10

That's so good. Bush has a pretty good idea of what's coming and is just checking to make sure. He immediately scans for the pick, finds it, and goes around it, reaching the sideline with the back. The Bearcats did not test Bush again, except once by accident.

McCray is still not getting around the screen. The wheel route was the clearest example:

LB #9

There were complaints about this being a pick on twitter. No sale. UC did get away with a bunch of flat-out blocks. This was not one of them. The WR sets, turns back to the QB, and is not, say, blocking Brandon Watson for the duration of the play. This is on McCray, and on the fact that he is still trying to go under the screen. He's been torched for a solid year on edge stuff and should be the first linebacker in the world to go into damage control mode by making the same move Bush did in the first clip, except slower. Instead, that.

Compounding matters is that for most of the game McCray's zone drops were terrible. Here's the good one.

LB #9

That's what it's supposed to look like, especially on third down. McCray gets good depth, reads the QB, and runs out on that corner route. I'm sure there's a throw that gets this completion—precisely one throw. That's good zonin'. Unfortunately that happened deep into the second half, long after McCray had been established as the Michigan zone's weak point.

Wide open guy on the first interception? McCray is creeping up on a short route on third and eleven. Third and ten conversion? Over McCray's head because he started moving upfield instead of back to the sticks:

LB #9 

That wide open guy UC just missed? McCray vacates his zone to chase an out route to the sideline:

LB #9

That's –6 worth of coverage busts. Like Onwenu and Ulizio there was progress late; unlike the right side of the line McCray cannot point to inexperience as the reason he erred. You could maybe argue that Michigan ran a bunch of zone in this game and McCray isn't used to that because Michigan barely zoned a year ago. That's an argument he'll be better going forward, but not one that he did okay in this game.

It is what it is. Desmond Morgan had a terrible anomalous –12 or something in that Minnesota game a couple of years ago and surrounded that with solid performances. This is probably McCray's Minnesota game. He is a good player. His limitations are even starker when he's out there next to Bush; opponents are going to keep hammering this all year.

The rest though... <kisses fingers>.

I saw you gave a +3 to a safety tackle ten yards downfield?!

I did, and I'll do it again. (Hopefully I won't have to.) Kinnel was almost entirely terrific. His headline moments were probably the least impressive parts of his day. The sack was a free blindside run; the interception was a ball that sailed thanks to pressure and went directly to him. His most impressive play on the day was one the cameras did not do justice to:

Seeing this from the stands was a different, relief-filled experience. That jet from offscreen was perfect, high speed and touchdown-saving. He'd miss a similarly heroic tackle attempt on the quarterback later in the game, so he still needs to learn when taking a risk like the above is necessary. If Kinnel comes in at the QB slower on his miss he almost certainly makes the tackle by giving up a few more yards; if he comes in slower at the tailback he gets blocked and UC scores.

In addition to heroic tackle (attempts), Kinnel showed his coverage skills. On this one he shoots up, avoiding the intended pick, and starts bothering the TE in the backfield:

It's all legal in the backfield, baby. He also got in on the slant disruption. Notably he did not get burned deep after doing so.

I have... strange feelings about Devin Bush.

We're still not doing phrasing.

Correct.

Yes, I also have them. I'm trying to remember the last Michigan linebacker anything like him and it's... Ian Gold? Who I remember almost nothing about because it was 20 years ago? Nobody in the Brian-charts-the-game era is anything like him.

He had a second consecutive excellent game here, one highlighted by a doom squirrel sack:

That is a lot of ground covered without overrunning the QB. He also had that flare screen coverage above and several positive impacts on Michigan's run defense. He wasn't tested often in coverage; even so he successfully baited the QB here:

That pump is a "shit he didn't blitz" pump, and then when he throws it anyway Bush is all over it.

Bush picked up some minuses on the tunnel screens for getting very comprehensively blocked by the slot WR coming out on him; he was otherwise really really good.

I have similar Hudson feelings.

As do I. This is suddenly a support group. Hudson did get beat on the long drop discussed above and has an area for improvement; he also delivered on some of that TFL sack action that the viper gets in on by virtue of being in a Don Brown defense. The first sack was free; the second was excellent, as he drew the right tackle and beat him by threatening outside and then darting back in when the RT over-set. The tackle tried to hold and even that didn't work:

He was no doubt a big factor in Michigan's many coverage positives—I could barely see downfield thanks to the terrible director—and was a consistent positive when tested on the ground.

It's time to check in with the All American you don't have anything to say about anymore.

Hurst did Hurst things. I'm pretty sure it was Hurst, not Winovich—unless it was also Winovich—who hit the QB on Kinnel's pick six. Also here is a Hurst thing:

73 nose tackle

He is Mo Hurst. The end.

Wait: I will say that the 3-3-5 is blunting his statistical impact and transferring some of the glory to the linebackers and safeties. When he's a three tech next to a guy like Glasgow he gets a lot of single blocking and whips it. He got singled up on a third and short stop when Mone was in the game and, yep, whipped the blocker:

Here he's frequently doubled as Bush jets by for a doom squirrel event. Hurst isn't getting stats because free-running back seven guys get there first; he's still contributing. Michigan's free-run-to-sack efficacy has been great and that's in part because Hurst is forcing pockets shut despite getting doubled:

73 nose tackle

Hudson gets that sack in part because the QB has nowhere to run.

Hurst is playing very well despite the lack of numbers (just one TFL so far). His ability to threaten both A gaps and sometimes even the B gaps is a foundational component of the stack's success. I don't have anything else to say about him that I haven't said the last two years.

Uh... cornerback takes?

No?

What do you mean no?

They weren't called into action much. Michigan played a lot of zone in this game, much more than they usually do. Whether this was practice or a reaction to Cincinnati's numerous pick plays not drawing OPI is unknown, but if things looked a little weird that was why. This Brandon Watson PBU sort of looks like man coverage that gets beat by a step; it's actually Watson setting up in a zone and then dropping. The window here is pretty small:

He had two other cover +2s, one for pressing a route out of existence, the second for a near-PBU on which he was in the pocket of the WR. He's been really good so far, the most pleasant surprise on the defense. I guess that is a cornerback take.

As for the other guys, ask again later. Hill delivered the coup de grace...

...and that was almost the only time Long or Hill was tested, as Cincinnati relentlessly attacked Michigan's safeties in man and McCray in zone. For a given definition of "relentlessly."

Anything from new contributors?

Aubrey Solomon got his first +2 by blowing up a power play:

#5 NT

That's promising.

Also Bryan Mone still counts for this section and he did have one play that jumped out in his 22. He takes a double team on this attempted third and short conversion; with a little help from McCray he not only stands up to it but drives it back:

#90 DT, second from bottom of line

That's quite an ace in the hole on short yardage, to be able to bring in a mountain like that. A fresh one, even.

Other than that there wasn't much. Robo got half a drive with Bush out and did a reasonable job on a couple of goal line runs that came right to him. He got the back down at the half yard line on the first; he was not so fortunate on the second.

Oh. Hey. Bolded alter-ego.

Yes?

I want to do a new thing, bolded alter-ego. What would you call the best play of the week?

PLAY OF THE WEEK OF THE CENTURY

Yeah buddy. Let's do it. With apologies to Rashan Gary's crowd-enthralling edge rush it's got to be this comprehensive Chase Winovich zone read obliteration:

#15 DE to bottom of screen

Beats LT clean, swallows back, realizes back does not have ball, discards back, swallows quarterback. Winovich had a bit of a quiet day since it was the back seven shooting in unblocked; that was an exclamation point.

Gary's edge rush was the next snap, by the way:

I'm impressed Hayden Moore didn't walk off the field and fade into the distance immediately after these. His very next throw was in fact the picture perfect bomb that beat Hudson, and he threw that while staring Hurst right in the face. Moore isn't good but you can't question his toughness.

Heroes?

Just about everyone but particularly Gary, Hurst, Kinnel, and Watson(!).

Maybe not so heroic?

McCray's zone drops could have been the source of three chunk plays; instead it was just one as the pressure got home. He was culpable on the wheel route as well.

What does it mean for Air Force and beyond?

Well, this is accidentally pleasant. Having a bonafide 3-3-5 as Michigan's base defense is a boon as Michigan faces an option team. Look for Michigan's safety alignment: after getting burned with single high a few years ago I'm expecting/hoping that Michigan spends the game in a split safety look.

It is really a stack, at least against spreads. More four man lines in this game but still two-thirds stack, with Mone featured as a change of pace and short yardage bull.

Gary beefed up, albeit without results. His highlight plays are near misses at the moment; this was on track for stardom. Ditto Winovich, who is translating his per-snap productivity from last year into a starting role.

Watson: very good? His awareness has been great, and he's pressing effectively. I have some lingering doubts he might get outrun by elite guys of a certain Will Fuller strain, a la Blake Countess. Those dwindle by the week.

Furbush is a bit of a one trick pony. Reliable and tough as the designated blitz LB, but we haven't seen him scrape much if at all, and haven't seen him try to cover. It's a good trick, though: he's been effective.

Devin Bush is going to be everyone's favorite Michigan linebacker. Denard: The Linebacker turns out to be almost as fun as Denard. MOAR DENARDS.

There are potential chinks in the armor. #1: in games where OPI is turned off and Michigan must zone their drops can be wonky. #2: if you can get McCray in man coverage or space he's in trouble. #3: Michigan's box safeties might be vulnerable to getting hit deep.