Upon Further Review 2017: Defense vs Florida

SPONSOR NOTE: Matt also bought a very silly Michigan bus this offseason. For no reason, really. Just to have a giant bus with a winged helmet painted on it. And other stuff, sure. An engine, probably. Twitter handle painted on the side because that's how we do.

So you can get a mortgage from a guy with a giant Michigan bus or a guy without a giant Michigan bus. Homesure Lending is the guy with the bus. This is an easy choice even if you don't need a term sheet in 15 minutes because you're a bigshot lawyer who is very bad at promoting your own books.

FORMATION NOTES: Hoo boy.

Michigan played almost the entire game in a 3-3-5 stack. Copious discussion below.

PERSONNEL NOTES: Exact snap counts are not available right now but the general picture was clear. On the DL, Michigan started Gary, Hurst, and Winovich. Those guys got the lion's share of snaps. Marshall and later Solomon rotated in at NT. Kemp got a few snaps when Gary needed to get told something. Winovich went the distance until garbage time, when Reuben Jones and Kwity Paye got in.

At linebacker Furbush and McCray were the OLBs with Bush at ILB. Gil got a couple early series as Michigan rehydrated McCray; that was the only rotation until late. On the last drive the LBs were Gil again, Mbem-Bosse, and Uche.

Secondary was Metellus, Kinnel, and Hudson the whole way at safety with Hill and Long generally first choice at corner. Long's injuries and solid play from Watson got him a healthy number of snaps. Thomas got in a little bit in the third and fourth quarters. There was no dime package. Also yes I'm lumping Hudson in with the safeties since he will split over the slot and occasionally play FS.

[After THE JUMP: do the rich rod!]

WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD

uh

NAUGHT CAN STAND AGAINST US

okay

WHAT IS YOUR PROBLEM ED

Look, man, this was pretty much the best case scenario for the defense. I'm just sayin'. Watch Florida left tackle Martez Ivey start yelling at the left guard on the Furbush touchdown before the play is even over:

You! Come over here! I know you're in the middle of a football play, but look upon the destruction your incompetence has wrought! Feel in your very bones the touchdown you have given up and shall never recover from! Eat at Arby's!

Also here is Florida's quarterback getting hammered on a rollout that Michigan rushed three on.

That's some dystopian business right there, and we should slow our roll a little given the evident dysfunction of the opponent. How much? I don't know. Cincinnati isn't going to tell us much either; data will roll in a little at a time.

BUT!

okay yes but

BUT THAT WAS FREAKIN AWESOME

okay yes that was freakin awesome

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

okay yes, woo

YOU MAY PROCEED WITH ANALYSIS

Thank you. The big story of the game, of course, was Michigan busting out a 3-3-5 stack out of nowhere. I don't want to pile on Todd Blackledge too much—he is a solid color guy—but at some point in the second half he said "there's that three man line again" and I was Offended Girl In Popular Meme. After the first drive every single Michigan snap that was not a passing-down exotic was a 3-3-5 stack, give or take a linebacker slide on a couple downs. And it worked!

To describe this in words is difficult. The avalanche of emotions that washed over me as I watched Jeff Casteel's defense wreck Florida because Don Brown thought it would work and Jim Harbaugh knows enough to trust him was enough to bury a man. I was simultaneously amused, infuriated, enticed, alarmed, boggled, and gob-smacked. At this point a brief history is in order.

At West Virginia, Rich Rodriguez ran a 3-3-5 because he was the ultimate outsider. He didn't know jack about it, but Jeff Casteel did, and he plugged various misfit toys into the system and it worked pretty well. When he came to Michigan he hired Scott Shafer, who was not at all a 3-3-5 coach. He let Shafer run his 4-3; this went very badly until the Purdue game in 2008, when Michigan used the bye week to install a 3-3-5 with Donovan Warren, cornerback, as the free safety. This worked worse.

Everyone blamed Tony Gibson, not without merit, and this plus his DBs tendency to explode when presented with a double move haunted him until the end of his days in Ann Arbor. These days he is a popular and highly successful defensive coordinator at WVU, because obviously.

Greg Robinson entered, and in his second year as a desperate beaver-flinging incompetent RichRod again prevailed upon him to install the 3-3-5. He did, after a fashion. You may remember Penn State Game That Was Definitely The End, where Kenny Demens lined up on the butt of a nose tackle:

video quality has come a long way since 2010

I'd actually read up on the stack a few years earlier and knew this wasn't how it went. In the stack, the MLB is actually 5-7 yards removed from the line of scrimmage so he can go get it sideline to sideline. And lo:

Michigan made Devin Bush their little unfettered missile, and he delivered. RichRod is now the coach at Arizona.

So. The stack in a few bullet points:

• It's a one gap defense. A 3-4 asks DL to take on an OL and and play either side of him. (Sometimes. It's complicated.) A 4-3 asks DL to pick a gap and go get it. The 3-3-5 is a 4-3 where one of the linebackers becomes the fourth DL by blitzing. You don't know who or where. This means that you can run 4-3 DL in the stack basically as is, with some DT-to-nose-tackle tweaks.
• It likes burly thumper OLBs and makes a place for them in modern football. For most of the last two years this site has said "Noah Furbush can't play except against manball because he is an old-ass SAM." Now he's a weird-ass LB/DT, and it worked. McCray is similar.
• It likes MLBs that can run their ass off, the end. RichRod's old 3-3-5 frequently used walk-ons at MLB because it was a position about will, desire, and being short and fast for a linebacker. Devin Bush is the apotheosis of these dudes.
• It uses Michigan's already extant safety framework. Michigan has three approximately interchangeable safeties, two of which are box safeties and really really interchangeable. The 3-3-5 has a "spur" and "bandit" that are more or less Hudson and Metellus to a T.

The 3-3-5 shocked and then as Furbush slashed into a gap and Bush clobbered a guy at the numbers, it clicked. Michigan's personnel is very stack-friendly.

Is this the base defense going forward then?

Probably not? But maybe? Michigan didn't actually use much of the blitz variation that's one of the stack's main assets. It was almost always Furbush inserting himself into the line. It kind of felt like Michigan rolled it out and just kept doing it because it was working.

Something that works is a good thing to have as your base defense; I'm not sure we're 100% clear on that after a game against a bad offense that must have been all but unprepared to face a stack.

Going forward I'd imagine we see a split based on opponent that averages out to 50/50 stack versus last year's 4-2-5. Bryan Mone got something like three snaps, and he is probably a very useful space-eating nose tackle. Michigan isn't forced to run a stack because they don't have the personnel to run a four-man line, and there will be times when a more dedicated interior run outfit demands the application of more beef.

I would like a long section about Devin Bush now.

First, a cha-

DOOM SQUIRREL CHART

a chart:

That might be the closest thing to a perfect chart I've done. Everything is a blowout. Everyone performed well. The only guys even close to a 50/50 split are a couple corners who must have been doing serious work offscreen as they contributed to a +17 coverage metric.

So. Devin Bush.

Michigan lore is littered with offseason hype magnets who never panned out; Bush is emphatically not one of those guys. Everything we heard about him this offseason turns out to be 100% true. He is a missile, a blitz machine, and a hell of a linebacker. His first sack was the defensive equivalent of Chris Evans setting a guy up in one gap and then showing up in the next one:

Franks looks like he's fleeing from a rabid squirrel. The back didn't miss his assignment; he set up to block Bush and then Bush ghosted into the next gap. There he still had the angle and the speed to flush the QB and then run him down. That is a +3 from me. He had a blocker, he beat him, and he solo sacked.

His other sack was a blitz on which he beat a tackle and then tracked down Zaire:

That is another +3. Both of those are incompletions if Bush is a regular linebacker.

Almost without exception in this game, when Bush was provided a lane in which to go hunt down the back he excelled. Winovich cleared the way for him on my favorite Bush git-em moment of the game, a stretch on which he ran up and hit an OL and then knew for a fact where he needed to go and then got there:

#10, LB with dreads on the 50

I've always had trouble properly assigning credit for LBs that are in the right place at the right time despite not being blocked. Bush doesn't let you do that as a charter. He is capital-T There. He has a huge UFR score and I went back to check that I wasn't too generous; I don't think so. It's just a really good performance on the ground and two sacks he created more or less on his own.

What a scout by the staff here. 

Look, we're not doing phrasing.

Agreed.

Tell me about Furbush. He was supposed to be a nonentity, right?

Furbush wasn't exactly a revelation but he went from nowhere to somewhere in this game. He was the main guy inserting into the line and he was effective in that role.

One of UF's rare successful runs was kind of his fault because his gap-shoot was somehow too effective. Watch the white linebacker here as he fires into the gap and then somehow the running back goes through him like this is a ghost story:

Over-penetrating is one of those good problems you can fix. Meanwhile his ability to attack half a man served him well against the pass as well; sometimes it was tough to tell but he was in fact the first guy to make UF's QB bug out on one pass rush, followed quickly by three other guys.

I'm not sure if he's going to have a role in the "regular" defense but he clearly demonstrated his ability in the stack.

So the safeties were interchangeable, you say?

The season preview had a section discussing Michigan's willingness to flip their safeties in response to opponent motion, and that was evident from the first snap. It's a jet sweep. Kinnel motions down and David Long becomes the free safety:

At some point in this game every member of the starting secondary was the free safety. Motion would put Hill at FS and have Kinnel move down to be a CB, that sort of thing. This says a lot about Michigan's faith in the coverage skills of Kinnel. He's always the FS when Michigan lines up and is always the guy who ends up turning into a cornerback when one of the cornerbacks becomes the FS.

Kinnel wasn't tested much in this game when he swapped, FWIW.

Hudson didn't really pop up much. Slight disappointment?

Only in the context of Bush. Hudson didn't set the world on fire like that; he was still effective whenever his assignment was tested. Hudson didn't end anyone but he felt pretty Peppers-ish on a few waggles where he closed the distance in a flash:

Other than that his impact was somewhat muted, mostly by circumstance. UF only had 53 snaps and Michigan had a lot of guys getting after it; someone was going to get the short end of the stick. Hudson had to settle for being the motive force for a couple of TFLs and not the guy getting the glory. Here he gets around the corner in a flash, forcing Zaire to step up in the pocket and soon after have his chest caved in by McCray:

He looked as advertised as well: great short area burst, low to the ground, etc. We did not see a fierce hit. That is coming.

Meanwhile, Metellus was equally good. His standout play was of course the fumble. He did not really force it; he did end the wide receiver trying to block him and prevent an obvious first down.

He also made a couple impressive tackles after the catch—one particular waggle looked sure to be a first down until Metellus casually tackled from behind to make it a three yard gain—and got some rubbin's racin' points on an out route he clearly interfered on:

Around here we take the lack of a flag as savvy and hand out points. That's a plus two. Also that's the same guy he clobbered on the fumble. Brandon Powell is going to see Metellus in his nightmares for weeks.

After one game it looks like all three of Michigan's starting safeties are capable enough in man coverage to switch willy-nilly with acceptable results. Also they will come up and tattoo their face on yours. We had an inkling that this position group would be more reload than rebuild after the spring game; even so this performance exceeded any reasonable preseason expectation. In honor of that here is Kinnel tackling Zaire and Metellus tackling Kinnel at the same time because they are super best friends.

The general Hoke-ness of the Florida offense is the only brake on enthusiasm here. It is a significant one. Still... like.. I mean, not bad, right? No busts! No. Busts.

Okay but... I guess the cornerbacks were only sort of good?

For the supposed Achilles heel of the defense they performed extremely well. Hill got hit on a couple of deep shots; I thought the first was an instance where the offense executes perfectly and you lose. The second was Hill getting lost on a throw that was way short:

Impossible not to look at that and pine for Jourdan Lewis. Hill allowed an inside release, which I don't think I've seen on this kind of man coverage under Brown, allowed significant separation, and failed to react to the WR's adjustment. That's a flashback to some bad old days.

But that was just about the only clear problem on the day. The only other Lavert Hill issue was "he didn't deflect this pass enough":

All other deep shots were well covered, with Michigan CBs in good position to make a play on anything but a perfect ball:

Long's in great position and has his head around for any ball he's got a shot at.

And even Brandon Watson, who I was publicly skeptical about before the season, looked damn good. He had an authoritative PBU on a fly route down the sideline:

He's running with Freddie Swain there. Swain is a sophomore who was the #133 composite recruit a couple years back. If Watson can run with that guy he's in business. And even when he did get hit with a completion I was fine with it. He was the victim on one of the improv prayers UF completed; on the replay my initial take was "that's great coverage":

Watson has the actual route dominated. He can't mirror the improv stuff, but nobody really does. The bit where he jams this Cleveland kid (who is clearly talented) and prevents any thought of a throw on the original route is the important one.

Are there any players who are so good they're kind of boring and hard to talk about now?

Hurst remained Hurst. He was a sideline to sideline NT in this one, which is both very bizarre and something of a Michigan tradition now. Cut him, nah:

73 in the middle of the line

He was the secret key to Michigan's third down stop when nobody was set. He fired off, got in the backfield and into the pulling G's legs, and that allowed Bush to do his excellent Bush things:

73, middle of the line

He is Maurice Hurst. I think we know this by now.

Surely there are some downers... somewhere. How am I supposed to be a foil in this context? I feel so useless, like a Florida receiver farther than five yards downfield.

Michigan did get lucky twice. The first was pretty obvious: Florida rips off a 47-yard touchdown when the back reverses field and a holding call brings it back. The hold was a must-call but irrelevant to the outcome of the play. As soon as Winovich doesn't force it back or at least force the guy to waste time going around him it's over, and Bush wasn't going to be able to help even if unblocked entirely:

The Winovich thing opens it up but the secondary reaction there was not great either.

The second was a screamingly wide open screen on which Zaire didn't even look at the various screamingly wide open guys:

What are you doing Malik?

That looks like a long gain and possibly a TD that Michigan got got on.

The only other downer was Rashan Gary, I guess? Gary flashed his general absurdity plenty. He's going to be really good... as long as he cuts down on the irresponsible edge rush stuff. Too many times in this game Gary tried to be Winovich and dart around the edge only to find himself 10 or 12 yards upfield. That is too many. The Metellus forced fumble is a good example:

Gary tears off the corner and gets shoved. He ends up engaged with an OT ten yards upfield. Hudson gets pancaked; even if that was not the case he had a huge amount of ground to try to shut down and would likely have been unsuccessful. This was a frequent theme.

Gary's edge rush should be a surprising counterpunch to a bunch of Taco Charlton speed-to-power rushes, and I assume they'll move him towards that as the season moves along. His best moment in this game was a shoulda-been sack that came after he tossed preseason first team All SEC LT Martez Ivey aside with one arm:

#3, bottom-most lineman

That should be idea #1, because... I mean, All SEC tackle. One arm. No scramble. Do that.

Any way down the depth chart takes?

Not really. Nobody had much time to leave an impression. I did clip a pretty good twist blitz from Uche and Mbem-Bosse in garbage time:

Uche's ability to drive through two OL is impressive.

Other than that, Solomon, Thomas, Paye, and Gil all got a handful of snaps. They looked fine; ask again later.

Heroes?

Literally everybody but especially Bush, Metellus, Hurst, and Winovich.

Maybe not so heroic?

404 not found

What does it mean for Cincinnati and beyond?

Giggity. Defensive expectations are upgraded. New players played at or above expectations except Gary, because he was only very good.

The 3-3-5 is a thing to watch for against spread teams and mobile quarterbacks. It's very good at inserting LB and safety types where they shouldn't be, like a mesh point, and is clearly something Michigan is comfortable with going forward. There aren't even that many changes between it and last year's base D: the back five is the same, the DEs are the same, Furbush is likely a stack specialist and Mone a 4-2-5 specialist, so only Hurst, Bush, and McCray have to go from one mindset to another. It's way more complicated for the opposing offense than the defense.

Metellus and Kinnel are cover safeties. Both guys got stuck in man-to-man matchups with Florida's four-star wide receivers and were in the hip pocket. Both guys were described as CB/S hybrids as recruits and that seem to be paying off. The rotation on motion is evidence enough these guys have chops.

Devin Bush is going to have ten sacks this year. He didn't get lucky or pick up a cheap one. He made those happen. Offseason chatter wins here.

Gary is going to have to make some adjustments to be a beast. It's coming. Maybe a little slower than we anticipated.

The cornerbacks are probably fine. No busts, just the one bad weird Hill play.