For 2017, instead of previewing conferences division-by-division, I decided to preview the 64 Power Five teams individually, so I ranked them and counted down from the bottom.

I created a ranking system based heavily off of Bill Connelly’s S&P+ rankings: half of the ranking comes from the S&P rankings from the past five seasons among Power Five teams (1/3 of that number is 2016’s ranking; 1/3 is the average from 2014-2016, 1/3 is the average from 2012-2016); half comes from two component parts of his 2017 S&P+ projections, weighed evenly – recruiting impact and returning production – and ranked 1 through 64. There is no subjectivity involved in these rankings and they skew towards emphasizing where the teams were according the 2016 S&P+. I think it serves as a decent way to sequence these previews.

Previously: #64 Purdue, #63 Rutgers, #62 Kansas, #61 Illinois, #60 Boston College, #59 Virginia, #58 Vanderbilt, #57 Syracuse. #56 Maryland, #55 Arizona, #54 Wake Forest, #53 Duke, #52 Iowa State, #51 Texas Tech, #50 Missouri, #49 Oregon State. #48 Arizona State, #47 Cal, #46 Indiana, #45 Kentucky, #44 West Virginia, #43 South Carolina, #42 Washington State, #41 Northwestern. #40 Minnesota, #39 Iowa, #38 Colorado, #37 Kansas State, #36 Utah, #35 Georgia Tech, #34 Nebraska, #33 Michigan State. #32 North Carolina, #31 NC State, #30 UCLA, #29 Mississippi State, #28 Oregon, #27 Arkansas, #26 Pittsburgh, #25 Baylor. #24 Oklahoma State, #23 Virginia Tech, #22 Georgia, #21 TCU, #20 Texas, #19 Tennessee. #18 Ole Miss, #17 Texas A&M, #16 Miami, #15 Wisconsin, #14 Louisville, #13 Washington. #12 Penn State, #11 Florida, #10 Stanford, #9 Auburn. #8 Michigan, #7 USC, #6 Oklahoma, #5 LSU.

(I didn’t include Notre Dame)

[hit the JUMP for the previews]

4. CLEMSON

#2 ACC Atlantic, #2 ACC

14-1 (7-1) in 2016

In each of the last two seasons, Clemson’s gone 14-1. In 2015, they went undefeated through the playoff semifinal and lost a heartbreaker to Alabama in an excellent championship game; in 2016, they were a little shakier throughout the regular season – dropping a game to Pitt and coming close a few other times – but made the playoff again and, after a 31-0 beatdown of Ohio State in the semifinal, got a rematch with the Tide. This time, a heroic performance from star QB Deshaun Watson was enough to get the Tigers over the finish line, as they scored the winning touchdown from a few yards away with a second left in the game. In those two seasons, their fortunes in the old Bowden Bowl against Florida State changed as they defeated the Seminoles twice after having lost three in a row in what’s become the best annual matchup in all of college football.

Watson helped get Clemson to the top, and he’s off to the NFL. So are several talented targets in the passing game: WR Mike Williams and TE Jordan Leggett were two of the top players at their position in the country and WR Artavis Scott was another solid contributor. Watson and his receivers were amazing in that victory over Alabama last January: he threw for 420 yards on 56 attempts (and ran the ball 21 times!) and accounted for four total touchdowns. Four players each had over 90 yards receiving – including WRs Deon Cain and Hunter Renfrow, who return in 2017. The loss of Watson is absolutely massive; whoever Clemson finds to replace him will surely be a huge downgrade.

Outside of the questions at QB, Clemson has all the ingredients a team needs to be a playoff contender. Dabo Swinney has been at Clemson for almost an entire decade, but has greatly upgraded his recruiting efforts as of late and the Tigers are loaded with blue-chip talent (some proven, some not). Watson’s tenure will be a peak on their long-term program trend, but Swinney led them to consecutive 11-2 seasons immediately before Watson came to campus. The coordinator situation is great; two co-OCs managed the terrific offense built by former OC Chad Morris and last season’s Broyles Award winner was DC Brent Venables. Clemson’s somewhere in the Top 5 in terms of program strength in college football and will be very good even if Watson’s now in the NFL.

The losses at the skill positions besides Watson are significant. Williams was an elite WR and had 1,361 yards receiving, Leggett was a terrific receiving tight end, and Scott was a nice complementary receiver. In addition to those three, Clemson lost Wayne Galliman, a RB who had 1,133 yards and 17 touchdowns a year ago. Returning WRs Deon Cain and Hunter Renfrow are good enough to make it one of the best receiving corps in the ACC, and versatile blue-chip sophomore Tavien Feaster will probably lead the team in carries.

The OL should improve as All-American tackle Mitch Hyatt joins three other career starters; it’s likely that they’ll be the best line in the ACC. Against most teams, Clemson can probably lean on the running game. Still, so much depends on the new starting QB, Kelly Bryant (it’s worth noting that he’s a good runner). The veteran has beaten out highly-touted youngsters, and if he’s able to play at an above-average level, Clemson should be a playoff contender. If he (or his replacement(s)) are ineffective, the Tiger offense will take a huge step back and could struggle a lot against some of the nasty run defenses on the schedule.

The Tiger defense will have to replace several standouts as well, but the odds that they reload rather than rebuilding is higher than it is for the offense. They alternated between great and terrible in 2016: they gave up at least 34 points to four different ACC teams, and were able to totally asphyxiate JT Barrett and the Buckeye offense in the Fiesta Bowl. More often than not, the offense was able to bail them out, but that might not be the case in 2017. Clemson lost elite players from each level of last season’s defense: DT Carlos Watkins, LB Ben Boulware, CB Cordrea Tankersley were all All-Americans.

Even with the loss of Watkins, the DL should be elite and will be right up there with the top lines in the country. Enormous sophomore tackle Dexter Lawrence fulfilled every lofty expectation and then some during his first year at Clemson and the agile big man should be dominant. Their other tackle is Christian Watkins, who slid out to DE last season and was an All-American playing out of position. Sophomore end Clelin Ferrell also started as a freshman. LB Kendall Joseph had 124 tackles next to Boulware and should be one of the best LBs in the ACC. The secondary is relatively uncertain, though plenty of highly-touted recruits wait in the wings.

Bryant and the new-look Tiger offense will have a stiff test in week two against Auburn; they’ll have to travel to Louisville in week three and the Tiger defense will have to try to handle reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. In November, they have consecutive matchups against NC State and Florida State (they get the Noles at home), and they draw Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech from the Coastal. Simply put, it’s a brutal schedule. Clemson’s talent level is still better than each team on the schedule than perhaps Florida State, but managing to get through this slate with one loss (or an undefeated season) seems like a very tall order. There aren’t many senior starters, so Clemson could be in a brief reloading period before playoff contention in 2018.

3) FLORIDA STATE

#1 ACC Atlantic, #1 ACC

10-3 (5-3) in 2016

When Florida State forced Bobby Bowden out after three 7-6 seasons in a four-year span, it was hard to imagine that his successor would be this great. Jimbo Fisher’s gone 78-17 over seven seasons (so he’s averaged slightly over eleven wins per year), went undefeated and won the last BCS championship, and reached the playoff in another season. The Noles peaked with Jameis Winston starting at QB, going 27-1 with him as a starter, and slid slightly to 10-3 each of these past two seasons. Fisher’s dominated the state of Florida since taking over, going undefeated against Miami and only losing to Florida once.

2016 was projected to be somewhat of a rebuilding season in Tallahassee, and it definitely started that way. FSU lost their first two ACC games – were embarrassed Louisville on the road and lost on a last-second field goal against North Carolina at home. In their first four games against quality opponents, they gave up 34, 63, 35, and 37 points. Redshirt freshman QB Deondre Francois was good from the beginning, but took a ton of hits behind a porous OL. The Noles came back on the road to beat Miami and things turned around from there: they went 7-1 including that game to finish the season. The only loss came in what was essentially a coin flip against eventual national champs Clemson; FSU routed Florida in the regular season finale; they beat an elite Michigan team in the Orange Bowl to get to double digit wins.

One look at the depth chart last season and the immediate reaction was that 2017 would be a huge season for Florida State. There are a few critical losses on the offensive side of the ball – RB Dalvin Cook was an amazing player (and an All-American) and top-notch LT Roderick Johnson anchored the OL for a few seasons – but only one on defense: excellent DE DeMarcus Walker was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Other than that though, almost everyone’s back on defense. The unit got much better as the season progressed and could be the best in college football this season. They have ten players with significant starting experience back.

In addition to all of the returning starters from last season, Florida State’s returning star safety Derwin James from injury – his absence was acutely felt after he went down early last season. James is player who’s versatile enough to play centerfield against the pass and put his hand down in the dirt as a rush DE in certain packages. He’s a playmaker all over the field and has a great chance of being an All-American. The rest of the secondary is also quite strong: CB Tarvarus McFadden is a lockdown CB who played at an elite level last season as a first-year starter; Trey Marshall, AJ Westbrook, and former WR Ermon Lane also have experience. This defensive backfield is as good as it gets.

The front seven will also be outstanding. They’ll need to find a new primary pass-rusher and could be a little undersized at DE, but other flaws are hard to find. Derrick Nnadi is a powerful NT at the center of the line; DE Josh Sweat was the most disruptive player outside of Walker a season ago. There were inexperienced players at LB last season, but now there are three seniors who are returning starters, backed up by highly-touted prospects. Florida State will face what will be some very good offenses in 2017, but nobody will be able to score on them easily.

Replacing Cook is the central concern on offense. He’ll be sorely missed not only as a workhorse RB but also as a threat in the passing game. Much more responsibility will be heaped on Francois’s shoulders, but a successor to Cook could emerge: junior RB Jacques Patrick was the backup and was a former starter, true freshman early-enrollee Cam Akers was one of the best RB prospects in years coming out of the high school ranks. A couple WRs left, but Auden Tate and Nyqwan Murray are still around. TE Ryan Izzo is more of a blocker – he’s back as well. Sophomore WR George Campbell has battled injuries throughout his young career and will be given every opportunity to live up to his five-star billing in 2017. The line has to replace a star, and it was very poor at protecting Francois last season. That could be the weak link.

The biggest game of the season in all of college football might take place on its opening weekend, as Florida State meets Alabama in Atlanta for a matchup between preseason Top 3 teams. It won’t be a playoff elimination game, but the loser will have very little room for error afterwards. To be frank, it seems like both teams took an unnecessary risk by scheduling that game, but it’s great for fans of the sport. Season openers are usually kind of weird, and either team could win this one. The rest of the schedule is pretty difficult as well, but Alabama, the preseason #1 team, is as tough of a test as there is.

The Noles host Miami (possibly the Coastal favorite) and NC State (a veteran team that could be 2017’s darkhorse) in September. They welcome Lamar Jackson to Tallahassee in October with revenge in mind for the six-touchdown loss last season. They travel to Clemson late in the season and close it out with a trip to the Swamp to face Florida. It’s a brutal schedule. If Florida State does manage to make it to the playoff, they’ll have earned it. If enough top teams from around the country lose enough games, they could be the first playoff participant with two losses if they win the ACC anyways.

2. OHIO STATE

#1 Big Ten East, #1 Big Ten

11-2 (8-1) in 2016

This preview was written before Ohio State’s game against Indiana last night.

The Evil Empire is back for more in 2017. Urban Meyer’s only lost six games over five seasons since arriving in Columbus, and now he’s recruiting at a level that might be even better than Alabama’s standard. He took what had been a 6-7 team and went undefeated in his first season – had Ohio State self-imposed a postseason ban the year before, they could have won the Big Ten title and possibly made it to the BCS Championship Game, but they were ineligible for postseason play. Meyer delivered his first national title to Ohio State two seasons later, as the Buckeyes recovered from an early-season loss to Virginia Tech to sneak into the playoff. In their last three games of that 2014 season, third-string QB Cardale Jones led the offense to 59 points (against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game) and 42 points in each playoff win over Alabama and Oregon. In 2015, an inexplicable home loss to Michigan State derailed a repeat attempt even though OSU probably had the most talented team in the country.

The Buckeyes had the least experienced team in college football in 2016, but Meyer took them to the playoff anyways. They had just three starters back on each side of the ball, but with a blowout win on the road over eventual Big 12 champs Oklahoma early in the season, they put themselves near the front of the playoff race. They took down a good Wisconsin team on the road in OT before dropping an unlucky upset loss in Happy Valley against Penn State. With a spot in the Big Ten Championship on the line at home against Michigan in the game, the Buckeyes profited from two terrible interceptions to keep the game close and wound up winning by a razor-thin margin in 2OT. They got into the playoff over Penn State, as PSU had two losses to OSU’s one, and became the first team to make it in without winning their conference. Their season was ended rudely by Clemson in the semifinal, as the Tigers abused the Buckeye OL and won 31-0.

Ohio State was a year ahead of schedule, and with 15 total starters returning in 2017, they’re favorites to repeat as playoff participants. QB JT Barrett is entering his fourth season as a starter; he was best as a redshirt freshman under former OC Tom Herman, struggled some in 2015 while splitting snaps with Cardale Jones, and was solid last season. He’s an effective runner, and OSU leaned on that heavily in that win over Michigan. Barrett had poor passing performances in his last three games of the season, failing to throw for more than 127 yards in each contest. Part of the issue was a lack of playmakers at receiver, as star H-Back Curtis Samuel led the team in receptions and had twice as many catches as the player who was second on the list (WR Noah Brown). Somebody’s going to have to step up from a cast of talented but unproven (and young) options.

The OL was the position group where Ohio State’s inexperience was most evident: Pat Elflein and Billy Price were tremendous in the middle, but the other spots were weaknesses – especially true freshman Michael Jordan at guard. Four starters are back on the line, including Price, and it should be much better than it was last season, even with OL guru Ed Warinner out of the picture. The loss of the versatile Samuel – an All-American – will be significant, but RB Mike Weber returns a season after running for 1,096 yards and 9 touchdowns a year ago. Weber’s a great fit for Meyer’s power spread and he’ll be joined by new H-Back Parris Campbell and sophomore Demario McCall. OSU brought in former Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson to be its OC; it’s a hire that sounds great in theory (and probably will be), but may not necessarily work out in practice. His first task will be developing a more explosive passing game, as OSU wasn’t much of a threat over the top in 2016.

DC Greg Schiano has had two outstanding defenses in Columbus and it’s likely that 2017 will be the third in three years. Over the last two seasons, OSU’s given up 15.3 points per game. There are some significant losses from last year’s team: CBs Marshon Lattimore and Gareon Conley as well as safety Malik Hooker were each drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft(!) so not only does Ohio State have to replace most of their secondary, it’s unlikely that any of the replacements will be able to perform at the same level. It still should be a very good pass defense – the Buckeyes will be able to rush the passer as well as anyone – but there might be some nervous moments back there, particularly as they welcome Oklahoma’s star QB Baker Mayfield (and the Sooner Air Raid) to Columbus in the second week of the season. OSU also lost star linebacker Raekwon McMillan, who led the team in tackles a season ago.

The players that return in the front seven are why Ohio State has a good shot at having the best defense in the country. The depth at DE alone is absurd: each of Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis, Jalyn Holmes, and Nick Bosa could be All-Americans in a different context; they’ll rotate (and sometimes play together on passing downs) and stay fresh, and they’ll dominate against most opponents they’ll face. There are also some very good DTs in Dre’Mont Jones, Robert Landers, and Michael Hill. OU has a veteran line with some standouts, so they’ll have a chance at slowing down that DL, but none of the teams in the Big Ten look to be able to avoid getting dominated by that group. The LBs are excellent as well: Jerome Baker, Chris Worley (who’s playing a new position), and Dante Booker (who missed last season due to injury) are veterans who will be starting ahead of five-star youngsters.

There are some potential flaws there, but they’ll be well-disguised. The addition of Wilson as OC could work splendidly for Ohio State, or their passing game could remain in the funk it’s been in the past few seasons. Safety Damon Webb and CB Denzel Ward could help assure that the secondary doesn’t fall off much, or the unit could be revealed to be an issue (when OLs are able to give their QBs enough time to attack downfield). As it is though, OSU might be the best team in the country on paper based on who they’re returning and how well they’re recruiting, and those possible weaknesses will be very hard for anyone to exploit.

1. ALABAMA

#1 SEC East, #1 SEC

14-1 (8-0) in 2016

There could be no other team at #1. Nick Saban’s been at Alabama for a decade now, and he’s built the most impressive dynasty in modern college football – maybe the best program ever – since he’s been in Tuscaloosa. Saban’s won four national championships: 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2015. He’s gone 119-19 overall and 74-13 in the SEC West. He’s dominated the most competitive division in college football. He’s won the SEC five times. He’s taken Alabama to the first three college football playoffs. He’s recruited far better than anyone else during his tenure, and he’s built Alabama into the prototypical NFL pipeline. The bar has been set by the Crimson Tide, and almost everyone else falls far short. It seems like as long as he’s around, Alabama will be the favorite to win the SEC and make the playoff. Alabama always reloads and the product always looks the same.

Saban came very close to winning his fifth title at Alabama in 2016. They started the season ranked first and stayed there throughout the season. Bama started with a 52-6 blowout of a USC team that eventually turned out to be a great squad; they came back from a decently-sized deficit and got past Ole Miss later in September (after having lost to the Rebels in consecutive seasons); they easily handled Top 10 Tennessee and Texas A&M teams in back-to-back weeks (even though neither team was really that good); they beat LSU in a 10-0 rock fight in Baton Rouge; they took care of Auburn with ease in the Iron Bowl; they took Florida to the woodshed in the SEC Championship Game and won 54-16. In the playoff, they went to Atlanta and faced Washington in the semifinal – the Huskies were completely overwhelmed by the Tide defense and Bama advanced to the title game with a 24-7 win. They lost to Clemson in the title game despite leading for most of the way; an injury in the second half to RB Bo Scarbrough was a tough blow, but ultimately the DBs (Saban’s specialty) let the team down.

Last season, Saban gave the keys to the offense to freshman Jalen Hurts, who added a dimension that Alabama hadn’t had with his ability to run the ball. Hurts was a pretty good passer (2,780 yards, 63% completions, 23 touchdowns, 9 interceptions), but former OC Lane Kiffin utilized his legs very effectively as part of an offense that resembled Saban’s much-hated spread schemes in a lot of meaningful ways. Hurts rushed for 954 yards (and would have run for well over 1,000 if sacks weren’t counted as part of that stat) and 13 touchdowns, including an impressive open-field romp to seal the win over LSU in the fourth quarter of that game. Hurts was so good that several backups behind him transferred, and he was a first-team all-conference pick as a freshman. It feels likely that he’ll wind up being the best QB Saban’s had in Tuscaloosa so far.

Hurts is a factor in the running game, but feeding their deep stable of talented RBs behind powerful OLs has been Bama’s bread-and-butter for years. The Tide unleashed Scarbrough late last season and he’s a ridiculous athlete – a fast and violent runner. Damien Harris was the feature back for most of the season; he ran for 1,037 yards (and just 2 touchdowns) in 2016. Josh Jacobs ran for almost seven yards per carry; the top RB recruit in the country – Najee Harris – could also factor into the mix. It’s probably the best group of RBs in college football, and if Scarbrough gets enough carries, he’ll put up insane numbers.

The rest of the offense is predictably stacked with blue-chippers. Junior WR Calvin Ridley will be the top target in the passing game, but senior Robert Foster and freshman Jerry Jeudy could also be breakout players now that WR ArDarius Stewart and TE OJ Howard have moved on. Saban brought in a new OC from the New England Patriots, so it’s possible that they could move towards more of an NFL-style passing game with Hurts at the helm. The OL will be great despite losing All-American LT Cam Robinson and another starter; sophomore Jonah Williams has moved to LT and looked like a star in waiting last season. True freshman Alex Leatherwood could make an impact at guard; Ross Pierschbacher and Bradley Bozeman are proven commodities inside.

As usual, Alabama’s defense was mostly dominant last season (aside from games against Mississippi, Arkansas, and Clemson), and it started up front. DE Jonathan Allen was arguably the best defensive player in all of college football, and NT Dalvin Tomlinson was a second-round pick in the draft. Those two are gone, but the Tide still has an embarrassment of riches up front: Da’Ron Payne won’t be much of a drop-off, if at all, as the starting NT, former top recruit Da’Shawn Hand enters the starting lineup as a senior, and one of the best JUCO transfers in the country, Isaiah Buggs, steps into the picture. On almost any other team, the talent that they lost would be impossible to replace, but Alabama’s been able to continually reload on the DL for years now and they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt.

Alabama also has to replace LB Reuben Foster, an All-American who may have been the best at his position in the country. OLBs Ryan Anderson and Tim Williams were elite pass rushers (notching 9 sacks and double digit QB hits each) and they’re gone as well. There’s plenty of raw talent in the LB corps, but the group is inexperienced and even if the new starters work out well, they won’t be able to replicate what last year’s group was able to do. The secondary should be really good though (even though there are also some stars that need to be replaced): former CB Minkah Fitzpatrick is an All-American safety who had six interceptions a season ago, Ronnie Harrison also returns as a starting safety; Anthony Averett locked down one corner spot, but the other is up for grabs.

The opening weekend game against Florida State will be a tough test for the mostly new starters in the front seven, and even though Saban’s been excellent in high-profile season-openers, the Seminoles will be the best opponent he’s faced in any of those games. Alabama gets LSU and Tennessee at home in SEC play, and travels to Texas A&M and Auburn. Since Bama hasn’t missed a playoff so far, it seems unwise to pick against them in 2017. The offense should be a juggernaut and if any program can replace the type of star power on defense that they need to replace, it’s them.